Truthfully I probably watched it while distracted and didn’t really notice the short term move after crossing the 20% level.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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And here is a second one (breaks it down within the first 12 months). Both are worth watching. Great data:
Start just before the 10 min mark:
The S&P blew way past the 20% level after the last few days. The data shows a serious bull trend from here.....unless a second event hits (like 9/11 after the dot-com crash). People (especially bears) always talk about 99-02 as one bear market. However, it was 2 mutually exclusive events with the second killing a significantly improving market after event #1.
She was on MRKT Call with Adami today(a pretty untethered show without Nathan), and I think her stance is the fundamental underlyings are not good and it will eventually catch up to the market, but in the meantime the market just wants to run.
Basically a confused bear.
I respect her POV more than some bears that are angry and just want to yell at the sky (like Guy). Valuations and fundamentals are not as correlated to stock prices as most think.
Plenty of AI uses for the automotive industry. Manufacturing and features on cars. Lots of smart people saying with AI we are in the early innings. Think 1995 instead of 1999. How are you feeling about the market?
52 week highs for META, MSFT, NVDA. I’m happy lol. I’ve unknowingly gotten into the AI boom and it’s been a boon to me. It’s been in a “lower risk” way too because it’s all big tech only for me. I thought they’d all come back but no way did I foresee this kind of run at all. Sold some of the higher priced shares I accumulated because I didn’t think this run could keep going but still have all the lower prices shares so I’m letting the suckers go for now having a wide margin of safety.
I’ve said a few times here I think AI is still in early innings. I mean ChatGPT was only released for wider consumption just months ago. Will it bust eventually? Probably, but I don’t think that’s soon. Deep pull back is alway possible though.
As to the market that’s also another thing I didn’t foresee. It’s broken out to new relative highs so if it can hold that’s a positive, a retest and hold would be better. However, I’m Joe Retail (last to know) so if I’m starting to feel positive then maybe it’s time for a downturn lol.
Good stuff. Loving the rally and it seems to have more room to run, why? The next CPI print is going to drop more than last months -0.9% YoY reduction. As I mentioned before, look at the math. June 2022 soared at 1.2% MoM. If we continue to come in around 0.2-0.3% MoM in June 2023, the YoY CPI will likely come in below 3%. The market will freaking explode. And no Fed meeting until 2 weeks later in late July to serve as a buzzkill.
Now with that said, the speed of the rally has me a little nervous for the next few weeks, especially since I am sitting on a ton of TQQQ shares. Just trying to be patient and stick to my plan. Hold the position until the QQQ hits ATHs.
Real nice article on Big Tech by Fidelity:
Summary:
- After a down 2022, big tech stocks have surged this year.
- First-quarter earnings at some of the biggest names were better than expected, prompting cautious optimism that the companies are moving beyond their 2022 challenges.
- Deep cost reductions and a stabilizing digital ad market may have brightened the outlook for tech companies.
- Innovation in cloud computing and prospects for artificial intelligence have invigorated the long-term outlook for tech investors.
Great visual on the clould:
I know cloud computing has revolutionized my industry and my function specifically. The days of server rooms and holding tons of pharma data are over. We can also do so much more with advanced analytics than 10 years ago.
Summary:
- After a down 2022, big tech stocks have surged this year.
- First-quarter earnings at some of the biggest names were better than expected, prompting cautious optimism that the companies are moving beyond their 2022 challenges.
- Deep cost reductions and a stabilizing digital ad market may have brightened the outlook for tech companies.
- Innovation in cloud computing and prospects for artificial intelligence have invigorated the long-term outlook for tech investors.
Great visual on the clould:
I know cloud computing has revolutionized my industry and my function specifically. The days of server rooms and holding tons of pharma data are over. We can also do so much more with advanced analytics than 10 years ago.
GE making a 52 week high as well. One of the first stocks I mentioned here quite awhile back and said it would be a long hard slog, pandemic didn't help, but looks like it's paying off and finally coming through in a big way. Culp has done a nice job remaking the company, shedding debt and airline industry looking strong for now. GEHC is a solid company too and if some of those forecasts by the health insurers are true that can be a positive as well. Not sure about GE Vernova when that gets spun off but I'll likely hold it and see what happens there, it's all gravy. It was somewhat speculative at the time (ironic to say that considering it's GE lol) but hiring good management has paid off for them.
Think it'll be coming up on some tough resistance in 10 bucks or so but it's had a great run this year.
MMM isn't one I'd touch right now with the multiple lawsuits overhang but if/when it gets beaten down badly I wonder if it couldn't be a similar type play. I think they could do with new management as well.
I own a bunch of GE (and I guess GEHC as well) via a few funds. It has performed very well leading into the spinoffs. Sounds like GE and GEHC have bright futures with solid leadership. Agreed on MMM, way too much uncertainty right now.
SoFi Technologies — The financial technology stock dropped more than 8% after both Bank of America and Piper Sandler downgraded it to neutral from buy, citing SoFi’s recent run higher. Bank of America said the fundamental aspects of the student loan payment moratorium expiration is now largely priced in.
The cool off I was looking for.
Could have sold those calls a little later at a much higher premium but still looks like a solid move at the moment.
Still wouldn’t be too surprised to see it get right back on its horse.
Got put into INDI at $9.87.
Sold puts when it was in the 10's. Was rejected at a level it hit in March, just around $11.
Semi conductor company focusing on the automotive industry, went public via spac in 2020, so it's been caught in that downward spiral.
12x sales, but with great growth, nearly doubling 1st Qtr revs yoy. 2023 revs should be double 2022. 2024 rev's expected to be 60% higher then 2023. Expected to be profitable next year.
Been in and out, and have been watching it get off floor and on a decent run. Maybe keep an ear out for plans to produce some AI chips?
Sold puts when it was in the 10's. Was rejected at a level it hit in March, just around $11.
Semi conductor company focusing on the automotive industry, went public via spac in 2020, so it's been caught in that downward spiral.
12x sales, but with great growth, nearly doubling 1st Qtr revs yoy. 2023 revs should be double 2022. 2024 rev's expected to be 60% higher then 2023. Expected to be profitable next year.
Been in and out, and have been watching it get off floor and on a decent run. Maybe keep an ear out for plans to produce some AI chips?
Interesting company, didn't know too much about it. Looks like they are forecasting profitability in Q4. Seems like a pure EV/automotive play, but AI can be used for many things. I will put it on my watchlist for my custom ETF.
Deutsche Bank’s top minds put U.S. recession chance near 100%—and say avoiding a hard landing would be ‘historically unprecedented’
Historically unprecedented
NATO moves to war footing and NATO undersea cables are on the table.
Ukraine is toast - has been for awhile (40% of US vehicles already wrecked).
Massive hacking already taking place.
Wise to see to updates and be careful of being locked-out online
Ukraine is toast - has been for awhile (40% of US vehicles already wrecked).
Massive hacking already taking place.
Wise to see to updates and be careful of being locked-out online
And how is this relevant to this thread in your opinion?
Personally I think NOC with it's 14x PE and 6 months of consolidation looks like a good buy.
But I really like HII(which I've owned for almost 2 years to middling returns) which has 15x PE, a 5 year base from which to launch, and better expected EPS growth beyond 2023.
LMT on the other hand? A 20x PE and the most modest eps growth of the 3 beyond this year.
China cutting rates. Stimulus coming soon?
Just posted on Fidelity. TSLA looks like they are consolidating the charging business:
Exclusive-EV maker Rivian to adopt Tesla's charging standard
Exclusive-EV maker Rivian to adopt Tesla's charging standard
@rurahrah000
FYI - Sold half my TQQQ position at $40.09 for a 95% gain. Will rebuy with a meaningful dip. I'm bullish for the near term future, but the recent QQQ rip was epic. May use the money for CURE or a rotational play. We shall see!
@RU-05
Added INDI to my customer EV ETF.
FYI - Sold half my TQQQ position at $40.09 for a 95% gain. Will rebuy with a meaningful dip. I'm bullish for the near term future, but the recent QQQ rip was epic. May use the money for CURE or a rotational play. We shall see!
@RU-05
Added INDI to my customer EV ETF.
I see indi down today. Hope you were able to take advantage@rurahrah000
FYI - Sold half my TQQQ position at $40.09 for a 95% gain. Will rebuy with a meaningful dip. I'm bullish for the near term future, but the recent QQQ rip was epic. May use the money for CURE or a rotational play. We shall see!
@RU-05
Added INDI to my customer EV ETF.
Yes, I bought at $9.04. Now a 5% position in my ETF. I essentially replaced CHPT with it.
Sounds like a court ruling is expected in the "fall". It definitely sounds like Grayscale will win the case. BTW, I have been using Fidelity Crypto to get back into BTC and ETH (modest positions). Great service and platform. Very easy to use if you have normal Fidelity accounts.
JB just mentioned this on The Compound Tuesday's livestream:
Just trying to talk tough. After 500 bps, another 25 or so is meaningless. We will understand CPI data and where the math is heading.
Fed run be absolute retards
grind lending to a halt and we get the slowdown we need
TRUTH!
Amazingly stupid people. Inflation is gone and has been for a long time. Morons keep reacting to old/lagged data that has no grasp of current reality.