Buying 4% munis after the market corrected is mathematically asinine. You'll get it one day.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
I don’t think I’ll ever understand how you keep adding when you are 100% invested.
Maybe you could understand by reading my past posts on the topic? Not that complicated. LOL!
Very interesting. Makes a lot of sense to use X as the possible AI-enhanced social media platform of the broader company.
Are you so old that you can't remember posts from a few weeks ago? LOL!
March 3rd:
Very little cash in our retirement and overflow brokerage accounts which are funds and ETFs (just buy and hold). My personal/fun account (for stocks) currently has a lot of cash (30-35%) but this fluctuates quite a bit depending on my company equity vesting schedule.
Stay calm and carry on!
Will the market go up or down on April 2 when he announces the rest of the tariffs? When should I start buying again when the S&P hits 5,400?
65% cash, 5-10% safer dividend stocks, rest AMZN, META, GOOG, MSFT, CRM,ORCL
65% cash, 5-10% safer dividend stocks, rest AMZN, META, GOOG, MSFT, CRM,ORCL
My crystal ball is broken. I wish I had the answer. I’ve been buying on these big down days hoping for a reversal. Nothing yet. I bought more AMZN today as well as Vanguard Total Stock.
My gut says it gets worse before it gets better
I agree, probably 5-10% worse, I think Buffet was moving to cash but didn’t want to scare everybody by confirming it. Most of the Mag 7 I brought when they were down 15%
Be careful, you don't want to miss out.....again.
These amazing low prices won't last. Buy some now and more later if it dips. The market isn't complicated right now. Trump talking tariffs, market goes down. Trump stops talking about tariffs, the market rebounds very quickly. This is all artificial just like 2018 and 2020. Those crashes ended in a relative blink of an eye.
Amazing low prices are what people said in 2000. We are heading for stagflation - if AI is immune to that, than concentrate in there but tarriffs inflation and low consumer confidence = negative growth
True it doesn't have to be a hindrance but short vs long term there are reasons the Munger and Buffet types avoided AI.
Its the stock market as casino vs as investment dialectic . People playing the margins can do well off an AI bubble but longer run it has the same vulnerability as electric car market where hype and gov excess became punishing
Right now there is a lot of concern the data center push is also a bubble as construction and resource investment is being questioned in light of skinny returns and mounting problems with infrastructure. Existing servers are running too hot and liquid cooling is becoming mandatory. But a lot of existing servers are not easily or cheaply upgraded.
The spying issue hovers around that - people are increasingly weary of being harvested, profiled and shadowed. Amazon is gutting privacy features on Alexa+ (AI) in a push to increase use but a reason people stopped using it is data absorption. Business people are wary of talking in private meetings with devices present and people ate home are wary of recording where Alexa could even be used in divorce cases etc. People sort of mindlessly went with the flow of data harvesting but they are starting to get wary more and more (as happened with EVs) .
As an aside Nvidia's new video cards are in process of bombing and alienating buyers.
"Amazon is killing a privacy feature to bolster Alexa+, the new subscription assistant. "
I’ll slow down my buying but I’m anxious to buy something. You’re right and the market is going lower. I’ll just add some more dividends stocks and 3-6 mths CD. I don’t know if we see capitulation this time since it’s going to be a slow downward drag. Glad you’re one of the voices of reasonability.
T2K brings up that I missed buying I believe the 2020 drop due to covid but I got out before the drop and the recovery was faster than anything in my lifetime, in a few months. However, I did get back in by the time it recovered 50% of the drop. No one can time it exactly but I’m definitely cautious.
With all the inflation Trump will be causing, I might have to start using some of my retirement funds.
Last edited:
my POV is don't try and time the prefect bottom as you'll likely miss out when it turns. I personally flow out and in a bit at a time. Blending the risk/opportunity. Like putting your chip on 4 numbers instead of just the one.
I think it has to be getting close. I think the last couple of days have been results of "ok, we're really going to do this?" and I don't know that will happen again on Mon/Tues (so it will lol). Feeling the risk to more down well offset to hold/start going up. Just my 2 cents.
dave why would you want to tie up your $ in 3-6 month CDs when you can get close to these same rates with an on-line savings account that gives you WAAAAAYYYYYY more flexibility to get them and put them to work when things flip? I'm getting 4.35% on mine right now (NYCB).
Tariff inflation is a fear. Nothing else. Haven’t we learned anything from Trump’s tariffs in 2018? This is all about negotiation and will be short lived or barely anything. I can’t believe so many people are getting fooled again.
Yea, I have some money in on line saving account and even brokerage account that pays a decent return. However, I’m lazy and don’t want to move the money out of that brokerage account, 5 accounts, and it’s easily just to buy CD in the account. It also forces me not to continue buying stocks constantly, the next 3-6 months will be volatile.
Last edited:
My granddaughter is 6 and I have been funding a 529 for her. I originally thought I would stop once I contributed $100,000. I think I need to buy around $20,000 more before I meet that level. Since she has 12 years this lower market should be helpful. If not it will be a tough 12 years.
We did $100K in principle as well. Seemed like a good amount when factoring in future returns. We overshot a bit and the account got up to $250K, so we have been using it for K-12 tuition costs as well (up to $10K per year).
That 2020 recovery was fueled by reduced rates and stimulus money. Not unlike 2008 but then it was low rates and QE. Right now we're only on track for one rate cut this year, and we may not even get that with the way inflation has been hanging around.
Trump 2.0 is a bit more bold than his prior incarnation. What the market hates is uncertainty - if the "final" tarriffs go into place on the 2cd, you can buy the news. If he grants a temporary pardon, we go up initially and head even lower when the next shoe drops
Market was in an AI bubble and Trump adding great uncertainty combined with consumer confidence falling off a Cliff. I am not a Trump hater but he is trying to fit a 5-10 year solution into 3-6 months
Tariffs were suppose to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US but will take some time a couple of years. However, I see the Chinese are moving fast with robots and now US robotics companies are stepping up. Are those manufacturing jobs going to replaced by robots in 2-5 years? Just a thought. I visited one of our manufacturing plant, medical devices , 25 years ago and was amazed they only had about 70-100 employees mostly engineers maintaining the machines. In the past probably a plant with 1,000-2,000 employees.
We will get plenty of certainty in the near future, just like Trump 1.0 (and those tariffs are still in place, Biden never changed them, they also never impacted inflation). We have massive deregulation and tax cuts coming soon as well. Plenty of positive catalysts.
Market corrections based on fear almost always turn into generational buying opportunities.
Someone noted that the Trump tariff's were likely to be more of a dial then switch.
I thought that pretty apropos. And if that does turn out to be the case, there may never be an buy the news moment.
As for the tariffs themselves, you are right. Why do we even want automaking back in the US (or more in the US)? It's a low margin business that is more about robotics than employees. So, I definitely agree with you on this. I'm good with being "treated fairly" and the principle of reciprocal tariffs. That makes sense to me, but that's it.
If that happens (very likely in my opinion), the topic of tariffs will slowly fade away and the market will resume doing what it does.....grind up and up to ATHs and beyond.
Yes - that would be the uncertainty I referred to and a constant drip, drip drip that would continue to negatively affect consumer confidence
Stagflation - which we haven't seen since Jimmy Carter is a definite negative for the market - whether it leads to a crash remains to be seen .
Close with 2 contrary points
A) only 1/3 of corrections turn into bear markets and pullbacks are very healthy
B) there have only been 5 other periods where inflation adjusted PE's have stayed over 30x for more than 2 months. We are double the historical average right now and that assumes alot of earnings gains from AI
There is no stagflation and there isn't any remote evidence that any is coming soon. Not just my opinion, also Powell's.
Stagflation = irrational fear
I assume you are talking cape ratio here. Couple thoughts on this.
1) It has been skewed higher by covid earnings. Granted slightly offset by the post covid bump in eps.
2)The cape has averaged significantly higher in the last 30 years then it did prior. Prior to 1990 the cape was rarely above 20x. Since 1990 it's almost never below it.
I dunno about crap but we do need to acknowledge that p/e's are higher since high margin tech companies have entered the fray.
I also think we should acknowledge when the previous 10 years include 2 earnings recession including one caused by a global pandemic.
I'd say the 2025-2026 earnings, which of course we don't know at this point, are much more important then 2016 earnings.
David Giroux did a great job explaining this on The Compound a few months ago. Growth/Tech is pretty much at its historic norm for valuation. It's not expensive. However, the economy (and thus market) is now much more about tech. Economies evolve. It's mathematically asinine to compare today's market which is dominated by high-margin/growth tech to the past where the economy was all about energy and financials. It's completely apples and oranges.
Even Jeremy Grantham admitted last year that big tech is different and the reason his model doesn't work anymore.
Axios and half the traders on Wall St might disagree
The facts disagree and they matter more than opinions. Economy growing at 2.4%. PCE headline YoY down to 2.5%. And Q1 earnings are going to be strong (as expected).
On E-Trade, do your positions reflect the extended market prices or are you talking about futures in general?
Goldman sees inflation at 3.5% this year, and a greater risk of recession, as a result of tariffs.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/30/tar...-and-raise-recession-risks-goldman-says-.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/30/tar...-and-raise-recession-risks-goldman-says-.html