OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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If the tariffs stay in place for the entire year at 20%'ish across the board.
Key word = If
I know you know this but the market looks forward by at least 6 but usually 9-12 months. I would say the odds of stagflation are pretty close to 50/50 which is no bueno for an expensive market
Everybody with any formal economic education has been saying this since the election
Every week he says the bottom is in. Eventually he's going to be right.
He's been right 14 of the past 15 years. You? When there is max fear in the market, the most dangerous thing is missing the turn and face ripping rally back to ATHs.
Yeah Q1 is not looking good so far. And with spending cuts plus layoffs Q2 and beyond could easily get revised lower.
The rally to get back to ATH takes several months or even years if you have a 2008 Great Recession. You don’t get the entire gain when you come back 1-2 months later but if you sold at ATH you’re way ahead.
Well, you can see that I was out during the Great Recession, out 2000, out this drop, so maybe I have a sense. You only started in the stock market after the Great Recession.
I noticed that you are a great timer for buying and selling stocks, you buy low and sell at their highs and then buy when they drop. You are the best stock trader I ever saw. Oh, it’s your play money, I do it with my real money. When you finally feel confident, you’re do it with your real money.
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Sure you were. Nobody believes you (based on your track record in 2020 and 2022). Sorry.
As for me, I have never bought the bottom nor sold the top and I doubt I ever will. But obviously, now is a good time for buying solid companies. If you are patient, you will make money.
Why do you sell? You always say buy at the top. You can’t tell nobody believe you. If anyone argue with you, you have to have the last word so it’s not worth telling you they don’t believe you.
You’re the one that said I was out in 2000 and 2022 and I didn’t get in fast enough. I don’t time the market, I sell my stock normally close to their 52 weeks high and next quarter buy when they are significantly lower. It just so happens to coincide with the drop in the market.
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I enjoy your posts and perspectives, but i think we need to get you pom poms at this point
Are you having trouble with this site today? I am getting a lot of errors when I try to reply.
I don't sell ETFs or funds unless to modestly adjust allocations.
As for stocks, I rarely sell anything in my custom basket (32 holdings). These are my long term holds and what I normally add to during dips. My individual stocks are mostly for shorter trades. For these, I use stop losses. Initially set it 10% below my purchase price and move it up as the stock rallies (hopefully). For example, I bought GEV at $160 and set a stop loss at $145. It rallied all the way up to $400'ish and my stop loss eventually got to $360 (IIRC). It got sold during the Deep Seek news.
I think this method has worked well so far, but I am new at this!
As I have mentioned before, the market goes up 75-77% of the time. Being anything other than a permabull is statistically illogical.
I’m 69 and I just looked it up I should be invested 30-35% in the market at my age. That’s currently my percentage now 35% but I would say I mostly out. I have confidence in my abilities and will move back into the market if it makes sense up to 80%. So I take significantly more risk than most at my age.As I have mentioned before, the market goes up 75-77% of the time. Being anything other than a permabull is statistically illogical.
I lose track of people's ages on this board. Probably even mine! Obviously, we are at different stages of our investment journey. As of now, I am just more concerned about missing the rallies than avoiding the dips. You can always buy dips and take advantage of lower prices. However, you can't take advantage of a missed rally. It's gone. That's what scares me.
On phone it gives me my portfolio. On my computer it does not.
Some tidbits of wisdom from our investor elders.....
Time in the market beats market timing.
Don't just do something. Stand there.
Never mistake a bull market for genius.
The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.
Never argue with an idiot. A bystander won't be able to tell you apart.
It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.
If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.
A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price.
Avoid people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.
Go ahead and add your favorite to this list....
Time in the market beats market timing.
Don't just do something. Stand there.
Never mistake a bull market for genius.
The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.
Never argue with an idiot. A bystander won't be able to tell you apart.
It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.
If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.
A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price.
Avoid people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.
Go ahead and add your favorite to this list....
I was thinking we would see a recession soon, but this does not indicate that expectation.
Yeah Q1 is not looking good so far. And with spending cuts plus layoffs Q2 and beyond could easily get revised lower.
I have some short-term WOLF calls. If I make anything on the contracts, I will buy shares.
March was brutal. Thanks, Trump. I fear the massive tariffs will turn the US into Trumpty Dumpty.
Did you post this when the market was going down under biden? I’m willing to bet no. Take your TDS to the CE board
Tariffs will be announced tomorrow and the market expects 25% on everyone (i.e., max fear). If the tariffs are less on some key countries the market will rally hard. It's all about expectations.
I like DECK but haven’t studied tariff impact. I’m steering clear of LULU based on anecdotal competition = my wife and daughter were big LULU fans but now it seems Alo is blowing up according to their recent purchases…also notice smaller players like Vuori getting traction.
Is this correct?
Dan on YT just said in today's video that Newsmax went public and had its stock soar from 10 to 82.
Dan on YT just said in today's video that Newsmax went public and had its stock soar from 10 to 82.
President Reagan on tariffs. We could use some of his logic these days:
The market was up during the Biden Administration, and also under Trump’s first term. Neither admins tried to drive the economy off a cliff.
Did you forget 2022 when there was a 20% drop. Did you post then?
I know you posted a lot in 2022. You seem to like posting during those times.
America was a manufacturing/exporting giant back then. Subsequently the business class and pols sent the jobs and production to other countries under the "free trade" excuse for using CCP slave labor (transferring jobs and wealth to a communist enemy will go down in history as pretty crazy). Now America is a consumer nation where other countries get rich selling their stuff. The kicker is even foreign manufacturers had tariffs vs US stuff for years while US had none. Industries like steel are circling the drain and US cant make military items without steel. Heck US couldn't even make PPE for pandemic and needed China for that stuff.
Post WWII US is gone, but a lot of people think there's a magic switch and US could make stuff the same way when it cant . You want financial games to make silly money out of air then US is the hero. Making real stuff is a problem and Reagan didn't have it.