Very good jobs report!
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Great news. And this shows once again the ADP job estimates are complete crap and should be ignored.
Short trading session today. Markets only open until 1pm. Extended to 5pm.
@Rutgers Chris
Any thoughts on SSK? REX SOL Staking ETF. I'm not sure what this exactly is. I don't think it is a spot SOL ETF with shaking payouts. Maybe something with futures?
Any thoughts on SSK? REX SOL Staking ETF. I'm not sure what this exactly is. I don't think it is a spot SOL ETF with shaking payouts. Maybe something with futures?
Trumpism is going to send this economy into thr stratosphere. When TDS Powell finally lowers rates watch out.
Rates need to be lowered to help the housing/mortgage market.
The Man to start the holiday weekend:
We are working on naming rights to the stadium!
Sounds like they will get transferred over, but until then, we can use this thread!
Jay is down 2 strikes already...Admittedly Navarro's opinion of the Feds's stance on rates today will be challenged by some, but his quick history on Powell (and other recent Fed chiefs) is pretty compelling. Note: the excerpt below focuses on Powell, complete article is via link.
Jerome Powell is competing to be the worst Fed chair in history
By stubbornly refusing to lower interest rates despite ample data urging him to do so, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is committing his third major policy blunder in six years.
Powell’s audition for “worst Fed chair” began shortly after his February 2018 appointment. Promising President Trump in the Oval Office a supportive posture to secure his nomination, Powell instead aggressively raised rates into the low-inflation, high-growth Trump economy.
Powell wrongly believed Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs would spark inflation — they didn’t. Nor did Powell understand that Trump’s efforts to deregulate the economy and reach energy independence — positive “supply shocks” in the macroeconomics vernacular — would provide positive deflationary benefits.
As Powell’s Fed hiked interest rates four times in 2018—despite muted inflation and strong labor market gains — economic momentum slowed sharply. According to the Fed’s own September Tealbook, most of the expected GDP slowdown — from over 3 percent to 1.5 percent — was due to Powell’s blunder.
Trump was justifiably outraged over Powell’s first blunder. It would cost the American economy hundreds of thousands of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in lost economic output and tax revenues.
After Trump left the White House in January 2021, Powell successfully lobbied Joe Biden for a second term. Throughout that year, the Powell-led Fed kept interest rates near zero, even as inflation surged past 5 percent by mid-year.
Embracing the Biden-Yellen line that inflation was merely “transitory,” the pandering Powell refused to act. Despite growing warnings from economists and business leaders, Powell waited until March 2022 — more than a year after inflation had begun accelerating — before implementing the first interest rate hike since 2018.
By then, the damage was done. The Fed was forced into one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in history — 11 hikes in 12 months — all to combat the inflation that Powell’s inaction had helped unleash.
Powell’s second major blunder here wasn’t just his late policy; it was his silent permissiveness. While a Democrat-controlled Congress passed over $2 trillion in unneeded and wasteful spending bills — in no small part to boost the Biden reelection campaign — Powell failed in his ethical duty to warn the White House and Democrat-controlled Congress that this spending would worsen inflation. Instead, he let loose monetary policy and partisan fiscal profligacy collide, accelerating the very inflation he would soon be forced to chase.
Today, with inflation returning to target and disinflation gaining traction, Powell is well on his way to his third blunder with his stubborn refusal to lower interest rates now. Powell seems incapable of recognizing that Trumponomics — driven by pro-growth deregulation, productivity-enhancing tax cuts, strategic tariffs, and America First supply chain policies — is again delivering strong GDP growth and low unemployment without fueling inflation, just as in Trump’s prosperous first term.
Powell’s misguided fixation on so-called tariff “uncertainties” as a rationale for “prudently” holding rates steady is particularly imprudent. Let’s remember clearly: during President Trump’s first term, we imposed tariffs strategically and aggressively — and the predicted inflation never materialized. Powell’s hesitation reflects a failure to learn from recent economic history, needlessly stifling growth, undermining American competitiveness, and harming millions of Americans.
At its next meeting July 29-30, the Fed must immediately begin cutting rates. If Powell won’t adjust course, he will indeed have earned the sobriquet of worst Fed chair.
Jerome Powell is competing to be the worst Fed chair in history
By stubbornly refusing to lower interest rates despite ample data urging him to do so, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is committing his third major policy blunder in six years.
Powell’s audition for “worst Fed chair” began shortly after his February 2018 appointment. Promising President Trump in the Oval Office a supportive posture to secure his nomination, Powell instead aggressively raised rates into the low-inflation, high-growth Trump economy.
Powell wrongly believed Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs would spark inflation — they didn’t. Nor did Powell understand that Trump’s efforts to deregulate the economy and reach energy independence — positive “supply shocks” in the macroeconomics vernacular — would provide positive deflationary benefits.
As Powell’s Fed hiked interest rates four times in 2018—despite muted inflation and strong labor market gains — economic momentum slowed sharply. According to the Fed’s own September Tealbook, most of the expected GDP slowdown — from over 3 percent to 1.5 percent — was due to Powell’s blunder.
Trump was justifiably outraged over Powell’s first blunder. It would cost the American economy hundreds of thousands of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in lost economic output and tax revenues.
After Trump left the White House in January 2021, Powell successfully lobbied Joe Biden for a second term. Throughout that year, the Powell-led Fed kept interest rates near zero, even as inflation surged past 5 percent by mid-year.
Embracing the Biden-Yellen line that inflation was merely “transitory,” the pandering Powell refused to act. Despite growing warnings from economists and business leaders, Powell waited until March 2022 — more than a year after inflation had begun accelerating — before implementing the first interest rate hike since 2018.
By then, the damage was done. The Fed was forced into one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in history — 11 hikes in 12 months — all to combat the inflation that Powell’s inaction had helped unleash.
Powell’s second major blunder here wasn’t just his late policy; it was his silent permissiveness. While a Democrat-controlled Congress passed over $2 trillion in unneeded and wasteful spending bills — in no small part to boost the Biden reelection campaign — Powell failed in his ethical duty to warn the White House and Democrat-controlled Congress that this spending would worsen inflation. Instead, he let loose monetary policy and partisan fiscal profligacy collide, accelerating the very inflation he would soon be forced to chase.
Today, with inflation returning to target and disinflation gaining traction, Powell is well on his way to his third blunder with his stubborn refusal to lower interest rates now. Powell seems incapable of recognizing that Trumponomics — driven by pro-growth deregulation, productivity-enhancing tax cuts, strategic tariffs, and America First supply chain policies — is again delivering strong GDP growth and low unemployment without fueling inflation, just as in Trump’s prosperous first term.
Powell’s misguided fixation on so-called tariff “uncertainties” as a rationale for “prudently” holding rates steady is particularly imprudent. Let’s remember clearly: during President Trump’s first term, we imposed tariffs strategically and aggressively — and the predicted inflation never materialized. Powell’s hesitation reflects a failure to learn from recent economic history, needlessly stifling growth, undermining American competitiveness, and harming millions of Americans.
At its next meeting July 29-30, the Fed must immediately begin cutting rates. If Powell won’t adjust course, he will indeed have earned the sobriquet of worst Fed chair.
Last edited:
Powell did royally screw up in 2018 and 2021. The bond market shows it disagrees with the Fed/Powell, so the Fed is currently behind the curve.
From Tom Lee/FS Insights:
The Fed & Tariffs
The Fed’s argument for holding rates steady at 4.5%, while other central banks like the ECB are cutting, is that it needs to be cautious due to uncertainty around tariffs. After the June 18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that “everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in coming months from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs.”
We viewed this response as signaling a change in the Fed’s view from data dependence to forward-looking, since data dependence would have caused the FOMC to cut rates. It seems to us as if the Fed was essentially looking for more reasons not to cut.
The tariff situation remains unresolved as of this writing, but no matter how it turns out, we view it as unlikely to have a significant impact on inflation. Many, including some at the Federal Reserve, disagree. However, our view is based on the fact that tariffs are a tax, and taxes do not create inflation.
A simple thought exercise might make the point more clear. Let’s say the U.S. government wanted to raise $200 billion in tax revenues. They are considering two options:
- Choice A: Raise taxes by $200 billion
- Choice B: Order companies to raise prices $200 billion, with the proceeds paid to the U.S. government.
However, we suspect most would also agree that Choice B also does not constitute “inflation.” From the point of the consumer, it is a one-time price increase, and thus, unlikely to be inflationary.
Last edited:
Powell's 2018 screw-up badly hurt R's in those midterms and helped D's win back the House, and he really should've resigned after leading the Fed's '21-22 debacle.
Finally made it to the new site, was thinking that I might have to look for a new stocks chat.
Anyways. Gold and silver miners down today. Otherwise I would have had some strong out performance led by MRNA up 10%, SLB up 4.5% and FCX(copper now at all time highs) up 3.5% That's an interesting trio on the top of a board.
But per gold, it was again rejected from that $3425-50 level in mid June, the 3rd time it failed at that level since late April. The overall trend is upward, though it has gone sideways since it first hit that level. Think it's only a matter of time before breaking through.
Anyways. Gold and silver miners down today. Otherwise I would have had some strong out performance led by MRNA up 10%, SLB up 4.5% and FCX(copper now at all time highs) up 3.5% That's an interesting trio on the top of a board.
But per gold, it was again rejected from that $3425-50 level in mid June, the 3rd time it failed at that level since late April. The overall trend is upward, though it has gone sideways since it first hit that level. Think it's only a matter of time before breaking through.
I'm no historian but Burns has to be near the top of the list.
Powell is not even close.
In market news. SLB's rally has pulled my leap calls to even (since I bought the dip). GLD looks very attractive to me. Love those future contracts at this level. We should be heading north of $3500 soon.
Did no one else have problems with the transfer?He has returned!
On3 was trying hard to make me pay money, but I held my ground.
Did you get in on BMNR? I made a quick one day double and then sold. It's been volatile, but higher now then when I sold. I do want back in, but I won't chase.
All the boards launched as premium by mistake, so only premium users could access them. Richie got it fixed so a ton of the free board users are finally filtering in. Lots of folks were unaccounted for over the holiday weekend.
Also, all the existing/old threads should be uploaded within a few days.
Not yet. I keep waiting for BMNR to have a nice fat dip, but it hasn't happened. I'm starting to buy SOL futures on COIN in preparation for the upcoming ETF launch. SEC is signaling it should come early (i.e., prior to the Oct deadline).
Yesterday, I started one new position with MIST (Milestone Pharma). It's a microcap that got crushed due to an FDA CRL. However, the CRL was about manufacturing and MIST just replied/resubmitted. Manufacturing CRLs are much more likely to be resolved than issues with clinical data. I will slowly build this to 1/2 of position. I won't go any bigger with small biotechs.
I own a little SOL. Been a dud since I bought it.
I'll check into MIST.
Have you seen WOLF the last week or so? Kind of crazy to still be talking about it, but it's on a heater.
I'm thoroughly confused with WOLF and Fannie/Freddie. I guess WOLF can pop with good reorg plan to emerge from bankruptcy, but it's still woefully unprofitable, so will a rally last? On the other hand, I read an article that says WOLF back to $20 is plausible. Maybe calls to minimize risk?
Last week, I really tried to learn about Fannie/Freddie and there are competing POVs. Bill Ackman says to buy common shares. However, others are saying you need the preferred shares which the gov'ment mostly owns. After privatization, preferred shares will likely convert and seriously dilute the commons. The issue with preferred is the upside is capped. So.....
BBAI is running into resistance at $8.
Our old friend SOFI is up big and probably a sell into earnings.
SOUN is also ripping and could run a lot higher.
Our old friend SOFI is up big and probably a sell into earnings.
SOUN is also ripping and could run a lot higher.
Any specific news on SOUN or just part of the recent AI pump? Regardless, their tech is exciting. Lots of possible real-world applications.
YA BBAI just had it's big run where as SOUN looks to be in the early stages of one.
SOFI's chart looks great.
At $20 now. $23ish is ath from 2021. So need's to get through that.
Rev growth at 20%. Though it looks like mid teens beyond next year.
EPS is down in 2025 but expected to rebound nicely next year.
Expensive at 3.3 price to book.
Hood has gotten all the love but SOFI is right there with it.
NVDA = First $4T company ever (but closed slightly lower).
BTC = New ATH
BTC = New ATH
Took up a position in SOUN today…will be the voice of AI with a ton of upside.
Breakdown of NVDA's journey to $4T: