Toggle sidebar

OT: Stock and Investment Thread

T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,380
18,363
113
AMZN = KABOOM:

Amazon reported third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the bell. Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:
  • Earnings per share: $1.95 vs. $1.57 estimated
  • Revenue: $180.17 billion vs. $177.8 billion estimated
Wall Street is also looking at other key revenue numbers:
  • Amazon Web Services: $33 billion vs. $32.42 billion expected, according to StreetAccount
  • Advertising: $17.7 billion vs. $17.34 billion expected, according to StreetAccount
 
  • Like
Reactions: Postman_1
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,475
9,068
113
The Linkster added to META in its big drop. Called it silly. Not worried about capex as ROI looks good

Its a big position for me but ill think ill add a little as well. Need to free up some cash first.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,380
18,363
113
RU05 said:
The Linkster added to META in its big drop. Called it silly. Not worried about capex as ROI looks good

Its a big position for me but ill think ill add a little as well. Need to free up some cash first.
Click to expand...
Gotta agree with Crazy Link. The report was f'ing outstanding. Business is booming for the Zuck.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU05
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,475
9,068
113
Rutgers Chris said:
“Because of vestigal memetic consensus around the 4 year cycle, there is way too much underlying fear around "the top". I am convicted BTC simply doesn't trade like that anymore given it has been captured by tradfi and is a more pure expression of liquidity conditions. That said, it feels like BTC's recent underperformance vs. gold is driven by jitters around the 4 year cycle and OGs and other parties selling and acting as a drag on price. All of these things will wash out in time. At some point the underlying drivers for BTC will push it higher and when gold's momentum slows down that liquidity will re-enter BTC as well, acting as a slingshot.”
Click to expand...
These guys are always trying so hard to sound smart. :ROFLMAO:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rutgers Chris
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,475
9,068
113
T2Kplus20 said:
Is the 4-year cycle even a thing anymore? Lots of meaningful changes to the market over the past 2 years.
Click to expand...
I've said before the last 2 run ups were not due to the halving cycle.

Worldwide liquidity pump in 20-21 drove that run, this more recent run is driven by political/institutional acceptance. Since we are still in the early stages of the latter, I don't see why it would run out of steam so quickly.

That's my theory.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rutgers Chris and T2Kplus20
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,380
18,363
113
RU05 said:
I've said before the last 2 run ups were not due to the halving cycle.

Worldwide liquidity pump in 20-21 drove that run, this more recent run is driven by political/institutional acceptance. Since we are still in the early stages of the latter, I don't see why it would run out of steam so quickly.

That's my theory.
Click to expand...
The 4-year cycle might have been a self-fulfilling prophecy that isn't a real thing. We shall see?

Yo, any thoughts on FI? It's been an awful stock and company for the past year and crashed last week due to earnings. The have a new CEO (from PNC) and it really seems like he kitchensinked the quarter.

Check out what Jenny said (31:20 mark). Maybe Jan 2028 leaps? :)

 
R

Rutgers Chris

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2005
4,251
4,861
97
T2Kplus20 said:
The 4-year cycle might have been a self-fulfilling prophecy that isn't a real thing. We shall see?

Yo, any thoughts on FI? It's been an awful stock and company for the past year and crashed last week due to earnings. The have a new CEO (from PNC) and it really seems like he kitchensinked the quarter.

Check out what Jenny said (31:20 mark). Maybe Jan 2028 leaps? :)

Click to expand...

It’s pretty clearly a 4 year cycle, what causes it would be the question. With rates coming down and liquidity likely increasing into what would normally be a bear market, we should get an answer now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,475
9,068
113
T2Kplus20 said:
The 4-year cycle might have been a self-fulfilling prophecy that isn't a real thing. We shall see?

Yo, any thoughts on FI? It's been an awful stock and company for the past year and crashed last week due to earnings. The have a new CEO (from PNC) and it really seems like he kitchensinked the quarter.

Check out what Jenny said (31:20 mark). Maybe Jan 2028 leaps? :)

Click to expand...

I saw what Jenny said and it definitely had me thinking. It is very cheap at 10X, and while EPS is expected to be flat next year, they then expect 10% growth in 2027, and 30% in 2028.

MS cut it from Overweight to Equalweight and cut price target from $179 to $81. They think the turnaround could take time and patience. 3-4 qtr's. Their $81 price target is 8x their 2027 EPS expectations($10.13).

As Jenny noted there will likely be some tax loss harvesting, so could be a bit more downside through the end of the year.

I own some LAZR which was also just smashed in similar fashion, but their outlook is much more dire. Might take my losses and move it over to another loser, but one with a much more stable business(and actual earnings).
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,380
18,363
113
RU05 said:
I saw what Jenny said and it definitely had me thinking. It is very cheap at 10X, and while EPS is expected to be flat next year, they then expect 10% growth in 2027, and 30% in 2028.

MS cut it from Overweight to Equalweight and cut price target from $179 to $81. They think the turnaround could take time and patience. 3-4 qtr's. Their $81 price target is 8x their 2027 EPS expectations($10.13).

As Jenny noted there will likely be some tax loss harvesting, so could be a bit more downside through the end of the year.

I own some LAZR which was also just smashed in similar fashion, but their outlook is much more dire. Might take my losses and move it over to another loser, but one with a much more stable business(and actual earnings).
Click to expand...
Just looked. Close to the money Jan 2028 calls are very expensive. If there is a play, it's probably with shares (which is fine since you eliminate the time component). I need to do more research, but it sound very interesting.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,475
9,068
113
T2Kplus20 said:
Just looked. Close to the money Jan 2028 calls are very expensive. If there is a play, it's probably with shares (which is fine since you eliminate the time component). I need to do more research, but it sound very interesting.
Click to expand...

Found this.

"Fiserv now expects annual revenue growth of 3.5% to 4%, compared with its prior forecast of 10%. Annual adjusted profit per share is now expected between $8.50 and $8.60, down from its earlier forecast of $10.15 to $10.30.

"Our current performance is not where we want it to be nor where our stakeholders expect it to be," Lyons said in a statement.

Slowing growth in Clover, Fiserv's point-of-sale and business management platform, has been a key concern for investors this year.

Fiserv reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.04 per share, far below Wall Street estimates of $2.64 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.

The results were impacted by significant deterioration of the Argentine peso and a jump in interest rates in Argentina during the quarter, Fiserv said.

Adjusted revenue of $4.92 billion also came in well below expectations of $5.36 billion, as its merchant solutions and financial solutions businesses lagged."
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,380
18,363
113
RU05 said:
Found this.

"Fiserv now expects annual revenue growth of 3.5% to 4%, compared with its prior forecast of 10%. Annual adjusted profit per share is now expected between $8.50 and $8.60, down from its earlier forecast of $10.15 to $10.30.

"Our current performance is not where we want it to be nor where our stakeholders expect it to be," Lyons said in a statement.

Slowing growth in Clover, Fiserv's point-of-sale and business management platform, has been a key concern for investors this year.

Fiserv reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.04 per share, far below Wall Street estimates of $2.64 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG.

The results were impacted by significant deterioration of the Argentine peso and a jump in interest rates in Argentina during the quarter, Fiserv said.

Adjusted revenue of $4.92 billion also came in well below expectations of $5.36 billion, as its merchant solutions and financial solutions businesses lagged."
Click to expand...
From Morningstar:

Fiserv Earnings: Management Slashes Guidance and Points to a Complete Reset​

Brett Horn
Oct 29, 2025

Business Strategy and Outlook​

Fiserv’s merger with First Data in 2019 kicked off a string of three similar deals that took place in short order. While this deal clearly looked like a winner in recent years, the picture is now more cloudy.
First Data had underperformed its peers prior to the merger, as it was weighed down by an excessive debt load stemming from a leveraged buyout just before the financial crisis and the defection of a major bank partner. We believe this meaningfully limited its ability to reinvest and adapt in an industry that continues to evolve. However, resolving its financial issues put the company back on track. Further, Clover, the company’s small-business solution with similarities to Square’s offering, has boosted growth, with volume running at an annualized rate of over $300 billion. Clover offers much stronger pricing and is the type of platform we think the company needs to maintain and build on its leading position in the industry.
While the company's performance over the past few years has been quite strong, new CEO Michael Lyons recently announced that he believes the company has been underinvesting and overly focused on boosting near-term growth. As a result, he intends to reset the business. This will necessitate greater investment and lower margins in the near term, along with lower growth. Clover remains the centerpiece of management's growth plans, but even this business will likely see its revenue growth compress. Management's One Fiserv's plan is light on details, but the overall trend is clear. Near-term performance will weaken considerably, and 2026 is likely to be something of a transition year.
The covid pandemic did illustrate one potential negative of the merger: The acquiring business is significantly more macrosensitive than Fiserv’s legacy operations. Over the long term, Fiserv's acquiring operations (and Clover specifically) should still be the company's strongest engine for growth. Still, successfully resetting the business could be complicated if the macroenvironment sours before the new CEO can put the company back on a more stable path.

Fair Value and Profit Drivers​

We are reducing our fair value estimate for Fiserv to $126 from $198 per share, after adjusting both our margin assumptions following management's plan to raise investment and lower margins, and our lowered expectations for near-term and long-term growth. Our fair value estimate equates to 15.2 times our revised 2026 adjusted earnings per share projection.
We assume 2025 will finish on a weak note and that top-line weakness will persist through 2026. leading to only marginal growth next year. Thereafter, we expect overall revenue growth to recover to about 5% over time. We expect growth in the merchant segment to recover over time to 6%, and the Financial segment to bounce back to 3% growth. In both cases, our long-term growth assumptions are meaningfully below the company's performance in recent years. The net impact of these assumptions is a 4% adjusted revenue CAGR over the next five years.
We expect operating margins to decline materially through 2026, as management increases investment to maintain growth. Our projections assume adjusted operating margins (which exclude amortization and one-time charges) fall about 5 percentage points from 2024 to 2026. Thereafter, we expect margins to hold at this level. Fiserv saw strong margin expansion in 2023 and 2024, and our assumptions essentially assume that margins retreat to the level prior to this improvement and hold there.
We use a cost of equity of 7.5%.

Financial Strength​

We don’t have any major concerns about Fiserv’s financial condition. While the First Data merger was stock-based, leverage increased, as Fiserv absorbed First Data’s heavier debt load. However, leverage has since come down, and debt/EBITDA was 2.8 times at the end of 2024. This level is not excessive, in our view, although it is still toward the top end of the company’s historical range, which has typically been 2-3 times. The company enjoys strong and relatively stable free cash flow and doesn’t pay a dividend. This creates significant flexibility and allows the company to pull leverage down to a level in line with the historical average fairly quickly. Now that this is accomplished, we would expect share repurchases to be the dominant use of free cash flow, as the company has historically been diligent about returning capital to shareholders.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,380
18,363
113
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,475
9,068
113
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom