OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[RU05]

A modest dip has to be coming soon, which will provide a wonderful buying opportunity! First good one in a month or so.

Modest is relative, and like you note above you have to put it in the context of the recent rise, 10% dip at this point? Whatever.

Now for some, they may want to sell some now and have money sitting there waiting. I know that is not your strategy. But do you deviate from your strategy at all and instead of directly investing your weekly allocation, would you put it into a pot waiting for that opportunity?

 

[RU05]

Why I am in index funds

The article notes that Cramer's "buys" have underperformed by a large % over whatever time frame. But given Cramer is a trader, and we don't know when he would have sold any of those holdings, isn't it a bit disingenuous?

 

[Abro1975]

"Having rock-solid companies underpin your portfolio may not be sexy, but it is practical and profitable. And it’s especially valuable in markets like this one. "
Strong utilities offer investors both reliable growth and inflation-beating dividends

7 Utility Stocks to Buy That Offer Juicy Dividends :

https://investorplace.com/2020/03/7-utility-stocks-to-buy-that-offer-juicy-dividends/

 

[RU05]

Basics about margin trading. Never have done it and doubt I ever will. Seems too risky for me:

https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/investing/what-is-margin-trading-is-it-right-for-you/

Saw a commercial of one brokerage site offering margin's at less then 2%.

I was against the idea in general, until I saw that.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I think the argument of overperformance is not against expectations but reality. Apple stock price for instance is up more then earnings. Same for AMZN. Same for many others.

And that is without considering TSLA.

Now interestingly there are a few tech stocks like Intel, IBM, or Sony which are underperforming. Intel recently dipped on news of Covid delays and loss of marketshare, but their earnings were still very good, this prompted a stock buy back.

The stock market has nothing to do with reality, just expectations.

 

[RU05]

Having rock-solid companies underpin your portfolio may not be sexy, but it is practical and profitable. And it’s especially valuable in markets like this one.
Strong utilities offer investors both reliable growth and inflation-beating dividends

7 Utility Stocks to Buy That Offer Juicy Dividends :

https://investorplace.com/2020/03/7-utility-stocks-to-buy-that-offer-juicy-dividends/

Ya I have a bunch of positions which have been moving at glacial pace while all these other stocks are speed boating around them. But I do like the idea of having that stable foundation upon which I can then take some bigger risks with other positions.

Edit: I do own NEP from that list, and CWEN is another that catches my eye as I do like the reneweable's to balance against the fossil fuel energy/midstream companies I own. A couple of which (like DCP and FRO) offer some pretty incredible dividends. The clean energies have been enjoying bigger rises since the dip, and may have more upside then traditional utilities.

Also I'm not seeing TERP on the market?

 

[T2Kplus10]

Modest is relative, and like you note above you have to put it in the context of the recent rise, 10% dip at this point? Whatever.

Now for some, they may want to sell some now and have money sitting there waiting. I know that is not your strategy. But do you deviate from your strategy at all and instead of directly investing your weekly allocation, would you put it into a pot waiting for that opportunity?

I have been playing a little more with our brokerage account (our retirement accounts are on autopilot, but I did rebalance early since our growth funds and indexes were way out front). I have a modest amount of cash ready to go when appropriate. This is extra funds outside of our routine weekly allocations.

 

[RU05]

Good read on some individual stocks:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/30/ana...ocks-like-apple-and-square-can-go-higher.html

I have a small position in Draftkings, was thinking of selling because it has been meandering, but also because of competition(the barstool/penn national collaboration being at the forefront). Then I started seeing recommendations, including yours, expecting a good run ahead, especially as more states likely open up in order to increase tax revenue.

Then this morning Michael Jordan is teaming up with Draftkings, and the stock jumps. So I think I'm going to stay long here.

 

[RU05]

The stock market has nothing to do with reality, just expectations.

But you do want those expectations to be based somewhat on reality. Have to question what some of these expectations are based on.

 

[mdk02]

I have a small position in Draftkings, was thinking of selling because it has been meandering, but also because of competition(the barstool/penn national collaboration being at the forefront). Then I started seeing recommendations, including yours, expecting a good run ahead, especially as more states likely open up in order to increase tax revenue.

Then this morning Michael Jordan is teaming up with Draftkings, and the stock jumps. So I think I'm going to stay long here.

There's an ETF I'm looking at, BETZ, which invests in online sports betting and gambling. It has a position in Draftkings. I'm thinking with states desperate for new sources of revenue, that legalized sports betting is going to surge. Heard anything about it?

 

[mdk02]

"Having rock-solid companies underpin your portfolio may not be sexy, but it is practical and profitable. And it’s especially valuable in markets like this one. "
Strong utilities offer investors both reliable growth and inflation-beating dividends

7 Utility Stocks to Buy That Offer Juicy Dividends :

https://investorplace.com/2020/03/7-utility-stocks-to-buy-that-offer-juicy-dividends/

Watch out, Dominion is cutting their dividend.

 

[RU05]

There's an ETF I'm looking at, BETZ, which invests in online sports betting and gambling. It has a position in Draftkings. I'm thinking with states desperate for new sources of revenue, that legalized sports betting is going to surge. Heard anything about it?

Just watching and listening but that certainly seems to be the expectations. And logic is certainly behind it. States are going to need that revenue.

I think same goes for Cannabis stocks. Though it is thought that is a bit more tied to the presidential election.

 

[T2Kplus10]

But you do want those expectations to be based somewhat on reality. Have to question what some of these expectations are based on.

It should be, but that doesn't mean it is, it will be, or I can do anything about it. People are crazy and emotional. As such, so is the stock market.

Not saying this is good or bad, but it is what it is, which is why we stick to our automated buying plan. You can't predict crazy or emotions. Very hard to do and likely impossible over the long run.

 

[RU05]

It should be, but that doesn't mean it is, it will be, or I can do anything about it. People are crazy and emotional. As such, so is the stock market.

Not saying this is good or bad, but it is what it is, which is why we stick to our automated buying plan. You can't predict crazy or emotions. Very hard to do and likely impossible over the long run.

I know this current stretch of the market is not typical, but sentiment has been a monster driver in this run, has also been an anchor for certain segments and "legacy" stocks.

 

[RU05]

FSLY has been bouncing between $92ish and $80ish since their last earnings call which marked an end to fantastic run.

Not sure what that implies about it's long term but it might be a good trading oppurtunity in the short term.

 

[RU05]

Crowdstrike was up to $155 in extended last night in anticipations of earnings today, was contemplating trading off the action, but seeing Zoom just blast off through earnings I said, let's see how this plays out.

Currently at $134. Focker.

Think I'll add though.

 

[RU05]

Value stock fund manager on CNBC now.

Saying Alphabet, Netflix and FB are actually good value currently.

Say's plenty of value out there, and harkening back to 2000, says the traditional utility-industrial-etc stocks, as well as his funds, did very well when the tech bubble burst.

He noted RGA a couple months ago as a good value stock(with a very solid dividend), I bought it then and I am up 8.5%.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Value stock fund manager on CNBC now.

Saying Alphabet, Netflix and FB are actually good value currently.

Say's plenty of value out there, and harkening back to 2000, says the traditional utility-industrial-etc stocks, as well as his funds, did very well when the tech bubble burst.

He noted RGA a couple months ago as a good value stock(with a very solid dividend), I bought it then and I am up 8.5%.

Good to hear.
I've been tracking value stock indexes and they continue to under perform. Also tracking mid/small cap indexes as well. Same story.

Large cap growth stocks are driving the market up.

 

[RU05]

Good to hear.
I've been tracking value stock indexes and they continue to under perform. Also tracking mid/small cap indexes as well. Same story.

Large cap growth stocks are driving the market up.

Others have noted it above, but the fact that this over heated market is being driven by a relative few stocks means that there are plenty of opportunities out there.

The trick is knowing when to transition. You could play it safe and transition now, but you might miss more of a run. But if you stay too long in the current winners you might fall off that cliff and miss the initial jump in the value stocks.

 

[Caliknight]

This discussion to be continued.

I am waiting for future earning reports to come in and how they reflect on the P/E.

Of all the indexes the Nasdaq Composite has the worst at over 33.

With a decrease in earnings its hard to get excited for significantly higher stock prices.

I still believe the end of stimulus effects and 10% unemployment will spook the market.

My prediction is that by the end of September the stock market will see at least a 3-5% drop.

For that reason I am in caution mode (holding/retreating) and looking for the next buying opportunity.

Lets discuss further at the end of September.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

While you are waiting others have already raked it in. You missed the boat bud.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Others have noted it above, but the fact that this over heated market is being driven by a relative few stocks means that there are plenty of opportunities out there.

The trick is knowing when to transition. You could play it safe and transition now, but you might miss more of a run. But if you stay too long in the current winners you might fall off that cliff and miss the initial jump in the value stocks.

+1
I'm watching those indexes everyday, value and mid/small caps, but large cap growth and the normal S&P 500 and Russell 1000 indexes are still beating them by a solid margin.

 

[BigWill]

HOLY MOLY;

DOW HITS 29,000 + TODAY.

James Carville, "It's the Economy, Stupid."

2020 Presidential Race is OVER.

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

"Having rock-solid companies underpin your portfolio may not be sexy, but it is practical and profitable. And it’s especially valuable in markets like this one. "
Strong utilities offer investors both reliable growth and inflation-beating dividends

7 Utility Stocks to Buy That Offer Juicy Dividends :

https://investorplace.com/2020/03/7-utility-stocks-to-buy-that-offer-juicy-dividends/

I've been getting progressively more interested in utilities. At some point, these have to considered safe havens? Right?

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

Others have noted it above, but the fact that this over heated market is being driven by a relative few stocks means that there are plenty of opportunities out there.

The trick is knowing when to transition. You could play it safe and transition now, but you might miss more of a run. But if you stay too long in the current winners you might fall off that cliff and miss the initial jump in the value stocks.

I think they key word here is transition. One could dollar cost average into, say utilities, and similarly dollar cost out of, say large cap tech.

 

[BigWill]

I've been getting progressively more interested in utilities. At some point, these have to considered safe havens? Right?

Monopoly loves the utilities.

 

[mdk02]

I've been getting progressively more interested in utilities. At some point, these have to considered safe havens? Right?

As I said above, Dominion (D) is cutting it's dividend. If by safe haven you mean they're not going to drop 25% in the next downturn perhaps, but they are not like a 10 year treasury bond 5-10 years ago where you could lock in 4% and forget about it.

 

[T2Kplus10]

To summarize today's market:

 

[RU05]

Crowdstrike beats on earnings, beats on revs, raises guidance, and it the stock drops 6%.

I haven't figured out these post earnings report reactions yet.

 

[RU05]

HOLY MOLY;

DOW HITS 29,000 + TODAY.

James Carville, "It's the Economy, Stupid."

2020 Presidential Race is OVER.

If the market was the economy you'd have a point.

 

[Joey Bags]

VIX increasing alongside the major indices is......interesting. Sold my SVXY position for a respectable gain when S&P hit ATHs in early August. Then moved over to UVXY and I'm up nicely, expecting a pop in volatility with a modest correction in tech and uncertainty surrounding the election. Will probably sell when tech has a haircut then get back prior to the election. Key with the volatility ETFs is you don't hold for more than six months, preferably no more than 3 months.

Saw a very interesting chart that showed the last time the spot NDX was at this level of the VIX was in 2000 right before the tech bubble burst, FWIW.

 

[BigWill]

If the market was the economy you'd have a point.

How about the Standard and Poor's 500 or the NASDAQ ?

OR the TDS hitting new HIGHS in the pot stores.....

 

[T2Kplus10]

Tracking the market - edition #1

Since Aug 23:

VONE (R1000) = 5.55%
VONG (R1000 growth) = 7.02%
VONV (R1000 value) = 3.81%
VTWO (R2000) = 1.31%

VEA (Vanguard LC Global) = 2.51%

 

[93RUDoc]

I was waiting until after the election but put money into some upcoming EV stocks-SHLL, and DPHC, doing well, I like these over Tesla, even after the 10% correction. Tesla's will have trouble with earnings matching its valuation in time. I also rebought alibaba at 245 after I sold when Trump scared me. I will not sell Alibaba again for at least 5 yrs. Next stock is Nio. I like MGM over Draftkings, they are going online in many states and are profitable now unlike DraftKings. T2Kplus10 has been correct, I believe there will be a correction in the coming months but 2021 will be a monster year again for stocks, there is no other place to make money.

 

[Panthergrowl13]

The stock market has nothing to do with reality, just expectations.

I was just reading again about the Dutch Tulip Bulb crash of 1637 which I always found very fascinating.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[RU05]

How about the Standard and Poor's 500 or the NASDAQ ?

OR the TDS hitting new HIGHS in the pot stores.....

Unemployment is currently over 10%.

If you want to make some statement other then "it's the economy stupid" fine, but none of these points you are bringing up can support that.

 

[RU05]

Better then expected jobless claims put the DOW in the green in early morning trading.

 

[RU05]

Nasdaq down 2%, Dow up .15%.

Let's see if that Nasadaq money goes back into the market and if so where it goes.

 

[mdk02]

Nasdaq down 2%, Dow up .15%.

Let's see if that Nasadaq money goes back into the market and if so where it goes.

3rd quarter estimated payments? Some, but not all.

 

[RU05]

Nasdaq down 3.5% Dow down 1%.

Now the market has been very resilient during this run but you have to wonder if at these levels this time is different.

 

[Joey Bags]

Question becomes is this a one day or a multi day selloff.