OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[RU05]

AZEK, who I've been waiting on earnings forever it seems(they had a date, but then set a different date to announce the earnings), and have done a whole bunch of nothing in the meantime, is set to announce before the market opens tomorrow morning.

The companies IPO was in June and it initially rose about 50% before settling back a bit. I'm hoping it rides the home building wave but could it be dragged down by shortages and high prices in materials, not only the materials they need to build their products, but also materials that home builders in general need?

I like the story, but I need a positive move here, or I'm out.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Lots of this will probably be accurate:

Mark Cuban on how the country will change post-pandemic: ‘America 2.0’ will look ‘different’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/mark-cuban-on-how-america-will-change-post-covid-19-pandemic.html

Big changes on how we work, even after the vaccines.

 

[mdk02]

Lots of this will probably be accurate:

Mark Cuban on how the country will change post-pandemic: ‘America 2.0’ will look ‘different’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/mark-cuban-on-how-america-will-change-post-covid-19-pandemic.html

Big changes on how we work, even after the vaccines.

I think he and Gates are spot on with respect to business travel, particularly for conferences where the real purpose was to go to a resort with excellent golf courses, gambling or entertainment. I think they are overstating the change to working from home, although the return to offices will proceed slowly.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I think he and Gates are spot on with respect to business travel, particularly for conferences where the real purpose was to go to a resort with excellent golf courses, gambling or entertainment. I think they are overstating the change to working from home, although the return to offices will proceed slowly.

I bet WFH is going to have legs, especially since it is a cost saving for companies (consolidation of expensive office space). My company ($50B+ global pharma company) implemented a new policy that elevates the home office to equal footing with the work office. You don't need manager approval to WFH ever again. It's your decision (as long as performance is acceptable).

 

[RU05]

Lots of this will probably be accurate:

Mark Cuban on how the country will change post-pandemic: ‘America 2.0’ will look ‘different’

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/mark-cuban-on-how-america-will-change-post-covid-19-pandemic.html

Big changes on how we work, even after the vaccines.

Thus the seemingly ridiculous valuations of companies like Zoom.

Might prove to be not so crazy.

As per the lack of business travel, it's why I like the cruise lines more then the airlines as a reopening play. People go on cruises because they want to, that's not changing, people travel, or used to travel, for business because they have to, that is changing.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Thus the seemingly ridiculous valuations of companies like Zoom.

Might prove to be not so crazy.

As per the lack of business travel, it's why I like the cruise lines more then the airlines as a reopening play. People go on cruises because they want to, that's not changing, people travel, or used to travel, for business because they have to, that is changing.

+1
There are no business cruises!

 

[RU05]

I bet WFH is going to have legs, especially since it is a cost saving for companies (consolidation of expensive office space). My company ($50B+ global pharma company) implemented a new policy that elevates the home office to equal footing with the work office. You don't need manager approval to WFH ever again. It's your decision (as long as performance is acceptable).

I think the question is not if WFH has legs, but to what extent?

 

[RU05]

+1
There are no business cruises!

And a spot where pent up demand will be very obvious. The business for cruises in the first couple years of reopening will likely be very good.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I think the question is not if WFH has legs, but to what extent?

Even if only a quarter of companies adopt such WFH policies, it will be a huge ripple affect throughout the economy. Sell office space, buy online platforms. Also, less commuting and fuel demand.

 

[mdk02]

I bet WFH is going to have legs, especially since it is a cost saving for companies (consolidation of expensive office space). My company ($50B+ global pharma company) implemented a new policy that elevates the home office to equal footing with the work office. You don't need manager approval to WFH ever again. It's your decision (as long as performance is acceptable).

And how many conventions and conferences in Vegas or similar environs are you scheduled for in 2021? IMHO that's where the real change is going to happen. Although I said it sotto voce, I think the migration back to the office will happen slowly. But over the long term WFH will lose some of it's appeal. That doesn't mean a lot more people won't WFH and get an early start to a summer weekend. But you will still need office space for Monday through Thursday.

 

[T2Kplus20]

And how many conventions and conferences in Vegas or similar environs are you scheduled for in 2021? IMHO that's where the real change is going to happen. Although I said it sotto voce, I think the migration back to the office will happen slowly. But over the long term WFH will lose some of it's appeal. That doesn't mean a lot more people won't WFH and get an early start to a summer weekend. But you will still need office space for Monday through Thursday.

Once the dust settles, I bet I will split my time between office and WFH.....2-3 days for each per week. I was 4-5 days in the office before. I also bet my company will consolidate offices and bring all local employees to own main campus. Modest changes can still make a big impact.

 

[RU05]

Tredegar, TG, which currently trades at $21, just yesterday announced a $5.97 special dividend with and ex date of 12/10. Jumped up from $16.60 on the news.

 

[RU05]

AZEK, who I've been waiting on earnings forever it seems(they had a date, but then set a different date to announce the earnings), and have done a whole bunch of nothing in the meantime, is set to announce before the market opens tomorrow morning.

The companies IPO was in June and it initially rose about 50% before settling back a bit. I'm hoping it rides the home building wave but could it be dragged down by shortages and high prices in materials, not only the materials they need to build their products, but also materials that home builders in general need?

I like the story, but I need a positive move here, or I'm out.

So they beat on rev's, but the stock is down 3%. To the curb

 

[RU05]

NIO calls for late Dec mentioned in unusual trading.

I was wondering if the EV trade was due for a breather, but maybe not.

 

[RU05]

AZEK, who I've been waiting on earnings forever it seems(they had a date, but then set a different date to announce the earnings), and have done a whole bunch of nothing in the meantime, is set to announce before the market opens tomorrow morning.

The companies IPO was in June and it initially rose about 50% before settling back a bit. I'm hoping it rides the home building wave but could it be dragged down by shortages and high prices in materials, not only the materials they need to build their products, but also materials that home builders in general need?

I like the story, but I need a positive move here, or I'm out.

So they beat on rev's, but the stock is down 3%. To the curb

And tonight Cramer has the AZEK CEO on and the stock jumps 5%.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Russell 2000 blowing up again.

 

[patk89]

Sometimes a little bit of higher expense ratios are worth it. I've been in the TRP New Horizons Fund (now closed for 10-12 years) for 25 years. Average annual return over that quarter century (which includes boom times, the tech meltdown, the Great Recession and Covid) is 13.9%

We have this in my 401K (managed by MassMutual). Wish I had put much more in this option. Up 50.6% YTD thru 11/30, 10 year ave of 21.04%. $34.3 billion in assets in that fund.

 

[RUJohnny99]

Sometimes a little bit of higher expense ratios are worth it. I've been in the TRP New Horizons Fund (now closed for 10-12 years) for 25 years. Average annual return over that quarter century (which includes boom times, the tech meltdown, the Great Recession and Covid) is 13.9%

Impossible
If this thread taught me one thing, active managers can not beat their underlying index. This fund has outperformed by 10 points/year over the past 3 years and 4 points/year over the past 10 years. Surely there is some funny business going on here. /s

 

[mdk02]

We have this in my 401K (managed by MassMutual). Wish I had put much more in this option. Up 50.6% YTD thru 11/30, 10 year ave of 21.04%. $34.3 billion in assets in that fund.

If only I HAD more to put in 25 years ago. Still, I'm in the same boat recently in that I should have increased my position more than I did.

 

[patk89]

If only I HAD more to put in 25 years ago. Still, I'm in the same boat recently in that I should have increased my position more than I did.

Trust me, I hear it from a few of my colleagues who loaded up on this fund and have crushed it. The woman from Mass Mutual was singing its praises when we had our annual 401K meeting a few years back.

 

[jordkap]

I think the question is not if WFH has legs, but to what extent?

My company authorized WFH for 2 days a week in perpetuity. Before pandemic is was 2 days a month. Huge difference

 

[jtung230]

WFH = less pay. It’s great for companies that were considering moving people to FL or NC. Will not impact primary markets.

 

[RU05]

Russell 2000 blowing up again.

Dang, I was going to crow about how I beat the majors by a stretch, but I see the R2K beat me by a stretch.

 

[RU05]

WFH = less pay. It’s great for companies that were considering moving people to FL or NC. Will not impact primary markets.

Is it less pay?

If it is wouldn't less pay help companies be more profitable, and thus look better to investors?

If it doesn't effect the market overall it will certainly effect the details, ie wfa stocks vs traditional business travel/business reit stocks.

 

[RU05]

@ScarletNut

As a Crypto play your thoughts on Riot Blockchain?

Up huge already this year, about 13x off it's March lows. Yet more the 50% below it's 2018 highs. (not sure if it's all time highs from 2011 are relevant). Dipped 9% in after hours on news of a "mixed securities shelf offering".

 

[Scarletnut]

Blockchain is interesting. It is in its infancy at the moment. I admit I do t understand it completely. I’ve seen RIOT move but haven’t owned it and am not informed on it enough to give you an opinion. I do follow ETHE which is Grayscale’s ethereum trust.Ethereum is a blockchain platform used by thousands of companies and applications yet is also a cryptocurrency. I’ve been in and out of that stock a few times.

 

[RU05]

Blockchain is interesting. It is in its infancy at the moment. I admit I do t understand it completely. I’ve seen RIOT move but haven’t owned it and am not informed on it enough to give you an opinion. I do follow ETHE which is Grayscale’s ethereum trust.Ethereum is a blockchain platform used by thousands of companies and applications yet is also a cryptocurrency. I’ve been in and out of that stock a few times.

Me and my gf watched a little video on what mining is, and for what I can gather, it, and crypto currency in general, is all a pretty ridiculous concept. But I have no issues making money off it if it is running. And by most accounts crypto has plenty of room to run.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Me and my gf watched a little video on what mining is, and for what I can gather, it, and crypto currency in general, is all a pretty ridiculous concept. But I have no issues making money off it if it is running. And by most accounts crypto has plenty of room to run.

Most important rule for wealth accumulation = marry well, stay married

 

[T2Kplus20]

Does anyone here get Morningstar Premium? Worth it?

Thanks!

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

More news on GE steadily strengthening its balance sheet.

• GE voluntarily pre-funded $2.5 billion of estimated minimum ERISA GE Pension Plan funding requirements for 2021, 2022, and into 2023.
• GE also repaid $1.5 billion of its intercompany loan to GE Capital.

These actions reduced GE’s pension deficit by $2.5 billion and reduced the intercompany balance, further simplifying GE. Including today’s announced actions and scheduled maturities in the fourth quarter, GE will reduce debt by approximately $14.5 billion in 2020—including $9.6 billion in GE Industrial debt and $4.9 billion in GE Capital debt—and by approximately $28 billion since the beginning of 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ge-announces-4-billion-actions-130000051.html

 

[T2Kplus20]

More news on GE steadily strengthening its balance sheet.

• GE voluntarily pre-funded $2.5 billion of estimated minimum ERISA GE Pension Plan funding requirements for 2021, 2022, and into 2023.
• GE also repaid $1.5 billion of its intercompany loan to GE Capital.

These actions reduced GE’s pension deficit by $2.5 billion and reduced the intercompany balance, further simplifying GE. Including today’s announced actions and scheduled maturities in the fourth quarter, GE will reduce debt by approximately $14.5 billion in 2020—including $9.6 billion in GE Industrial debt and $4.9 billion in GE Capital debt—and by approximately $28 billion since the beginning of 2019.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ge-announces-4-billion-actions-130000051.html

FYI, just looked at GE on a historic chart. It's amazing how much it has cratered since Welch. Hopefully this recent modest upswing continues!

 

[mdk02]

FYI, just looked at GE on a historic chart. It's amazing how much it has cratered since Welch. Hopefully this recent modest upswing continues!

Don't let Welsh off the hook. While he did some amazing things, he was partially responsible for the problems.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Don't let Welsh off the hook. While he did some amazing things, he was partially responsible for the problems.

If true, he definitely bailed at the right time. The stock was still strong when he left.

 

[mdk02]

If true, he definitely bailed at the right time. The stock was still strong when he left.

Well Immelt's first day was 9/10/2001, so some of it is on neither. But GE Capital had issues on the way before he left.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

FYI, just looked at GE on a historic chart. It's amazing how much it has cratered since Welch. Hopefully this recent modest upswing continues!

Read recently this “modest” 40% upswing in November was its best month ever.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Read recently this “modest” 40% upswing in November was its best month ever.

A 40% upswing is modest when it comes after a 90% collapse.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

Well Immelt's first day was 9/10/2001, so some of it is on neither. But GE Capital had issues on the way before he left.

I said this somewhere in one of these stock threads but have always thought of GE Capital as a blackbox that they used to smooth out earnings. I do think that Culp and crew have finally got a better handle on it now and hopefully shouldn’t expect any more skeletons.

 

[rutgersguy1_rivals]

A 40% upswing is modest when it comes after a 90% collapse.

That’s only if you’ve been holding since then. After the fall and dividend elimination along the way I wonder how many people would be still holding since Welch days let alone through the Immelt departure and aftermath.

 

[rutgersdave]

Anyone buy Tesla last year? I never brought it since it seems overprice even last year. In July, my nephew mentioned he brought it last November and still has it. I won’t mention the amount because you won’t believe it. The stock is up over 900% in a year. I have to find out why he brought so much. He lives in NY and hasn’t driven a car in several years.

 

[mdk02]

Anyone buy Tesla last year? I never brought it since it seems overprice even last year. In July, my nephew mentioned he brought it last November and still has it. I won’t mention the amount because you won’t believe it. The stock is up over 900% in a year. I have to find out why he brought so much. He lives in NY and hasn’t driven a car in several years.

Funny, I sold it short just before the split, then covered shortly after with a little under 10% gain when people figured out that the total value of the company was unaffected. I have no idea why the stock is where it is, so I stay away except for the obvious like the run-up pre-split.