OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Apple & 5G exposure at a reasonable price
$31 cash/share on the books
56% operating margin with a FCF yield over 7%
dividend over 3%, and just raised it 10%.
Large margin of safety if things go wrong. AVGO likes to acquire growth, and they have plenty of cash to do it. Keep in mind, my holding period is indefinite, and I'm usually 2-3 years early.
Isn't it "when the tide goes OUT....."
My nephew invested in November last year made him one. I want to tell him to sell some but I don’t feel I have the right. He also invest in Bitcoin. These are not what I would invest in. He only invested in Tesla because his partner in his new company told him to since he‘s been in Tesla for years.
Don't see the point of Bitcoin or the end game. Normal currencies are easily digitized. Seems like a fad that will be completely gone in 5-10 years.
Seems too many companies and big time investors are giving it credence to be just a fad.
CNBC guys were comparing it to TSLA, in that those that believe in it, take it almost to a religious level. Now maybe that gives it stability, or maybe they end up like Waco. But I am certainly willing to ride it for now.
Tom Lee said it will do better in 2021 then it has in 2020. Estimated 300% jump.
Not yet, but after years of denouncing gold as an investment they did go heavy on Barrick in the fall. Seems they may have chosen the wrong inflationary hedge.
Or maybe the right one. We shall see. Crytos make no business sense. Big day tomorrow, time to start calculating my final 2020 return #. Yeah!
True maybe not. I've pivoted to gold as well, but I still hold some crypto.
As per tomorrow, full day of trading?
It‘s highly unlikely Buffett purchased Barrick. “They” was most likely either Combs or Wechsler, who operate independently of WEB. I’d also note purchasing shares of a miner isn’t the same as purchasing gold.
I always ask Bitcoin enthusiasts what it’s worth and how they arrive at their value. To date, I’ve yet to hear a coherent response.
No different then gold, and that's been a thing for awhiles.
It's worth what the market says it's worth.
The investment halo of Berkshire comes from Buffett, not really Combs or Wechsler. So when you say they’ve long spoken poorly of gold, the “they” refers to Buffett since the statement regarding gold really come from him.
Id agree there is no objective way to value gold, but I would not say gold and cryptocurrency are the same. One has been money for millennium and has a finite amount on Earth while the other is new and really has no cap on its supply.
Very true. I have read a lot about Bitcoin/cryos and still don't understand the value or business point of them. Bitcoin breaks a lot of basic rules of investing and seems more like gambling. What is the intrinstic value of Bitcoin? No freaking clue.
Can't imagine this book will have a happy ending!
Just set my allocations for 2021 (at least the start of the year):
Large US index - 30% (mostly S&P, but some Russell 1000 indexes)
Large US growth - 30% (index and managed funds)
Mid/small cap indexes - 10% (getting back into this more over the past few months, mostly indexes)
Mid cap growth - 5%
Health/pharma sector - 5%
International - 5% (greatly reduced this over the past 3-4 years, started getting back into VWIGX and emerging market indexes)
Bond/Income funds - 10% (mostly BIV or DODIX)
MISC (REITs, Hedges, Alternatives) - 5% (mostly part of our backdoor Roth IRAs)
No individual stocks
No value indexes yet. Still tracking, but they continue to lag.
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Very true. I have read a lot about Bitcoin/cryos and still don't understand the value or business point of them. Bitcoin breaks a lot of basic rules of investing and seems more like gambling. What is the intrinstic value of Bitcoin? No freaking clue.
Can't imagine this book will have a happy ending!
Just set my allocations for 2021 (at least the start of the year):
Large US index - 30% (mostly S&P, but some Russell 1000 indexes)
Large US growth - 30% (index and managed funds)
Mid/small cap indexes - 10% (getting back into this more over the past few months, mostly indexes)
Mid cap growth - 5%
International - 5% (greatly reduced this over the past 3-4 years, started getting back into VWIGX and emerging market indexes)
Bond/Income funds - 15% (mostly BIV or DODIX)
MISC (REITs, Hedges, Alternatives) - 5% (mostly part of our backdoor Roth IRAs)
No individual stocks
No value indexes yet. Still tracking, but they continue to lag.
Crypto may end up being revolutionary, but I don’t understand how it will displace established mediums of exchange or stores of value. I think you’re spot on in classifying it as a speculation.
Gold isn’t something you can objectively value, since it will never throw off a a stream of cash. It does have the benefit of being money for most of civilized human history and has served as a store of value.
Was checking out ARKK to see what their magic has been. And these are there big holdings as of today.
TSLA is their top holding, so that has certainly carried a fair amount of weight this season.
ROKU which is up about 5x off the lows
CRSP up about 4x
SQ which is 4x
NVTA 4x
Z almost 5x
Just an incredible list right there
They are still in on tdoc, which is up nearly double, but is basically where it was at back in April. The fact that they are still in it means maybe it's a good time to buy? PRLB is in the same boat, pretty flat since Sept.
A big winner this month is EDIT which has more then doubled. So they keep finding big winners.
TSLA is their top holding, so that has certainly carried a fair amount of weight this season.
ROKU which is up about 5x off the lows
CRSP up about 4x
SQ which is 4x
NVTA 4x
Z almost 5x
Just an incredible list right there
They are still in on tdoc, which is up nearly double, but is basically where it was at back in April. The fact that they are still in it means maybe it's a good time to buy? PRLB is in the same boat, pretty flat since Sept.
A big winner this month is EDIT which has more then doubled. So they keep finding big winners.
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I'm no Crypto enthusiast, I'm just taking up the argument, but Bitcoin is supposed to be finite. Now there are other crypto's but Bitcoin, as I understand it, is finite.
As per gold, despite being finite in terms of what is on and in the earth, they have continuously added more to what is actually available.
Perhaps bitcoin is finite, but since it was created digitally I have my doubts. There’s also no reason a rival crypto couldn’t become preferred at some point in time. Having multiple forms of exchange at one time isn’t unprecedented, but those ”bank note” eras typically don’t end very well. Of course, you could also argue that the dollar is theoretically infinite, though it is the Global reserve currency of choice. Let’s hope it remains such.
There are certainly other crypto's out there, but bitcoin has the name recognition, it is the gold of the crypto's, the others will have to settle for the bronze.
Somewhat related, something interesting I heard today is that countries around the world were not liking how strong their currencies were becoming relative to the dollar, and if that continued they would take measures, which I assumed meant print more money themselves.
I also figure that is a good thing for precious metals and cryptos.
Name recognition comes and goes. Netscape was the search engine of choice until yahoo came along. And neither enjoys the name recognition today of google
The dollar retains preeminence because it is the currency of the largest market in the world, If you want to do business with or within the US, you must accept the dollar. That’s why it’s powerful, despite also possessing name recognition.
Got it, guess I read that wrong:
The stock market is indeed open for a full trading session on New Year's Eve, Thursday, Dec. 31, 2020. But for what it's worth, bond traders do get a slightly shortened day; the bond markets will close up shop a little early, at 2 p.m. ET.
I will reiterate that be very careful what you hear on TV especially guests on CNBC. I was off this week and decided to watch fast money. They had this guy on, James McDonald of some small investment company. He was pushing this very risky trading vehicle UVXY which is insane that it is even being mentioned on a show for general investors. He then was pushing Cheesecake factory (CAKE) as an awesome restaurant. Anyone who has eaten at Cheesecake factory knows that they are just asking for an heart attack. But the incredible part was then this shmuck calls bitcoin a dangerous investment. What a clown. Really, pushing UVXY, but bitcoin is dangerous???
The ones to listen to on CNBC are the ones who have no product to push. Daniel Yergin being the first to come to mind. And BTW, the history of bitcoin show it's indeed a dangerous investment.
+1
Not touching Bitcoin or ARKK with a ten foot pole. Futures look pretty flat for the last trading day of the year.
It only has value if 1.) a critical mass of people adopt it as currency and 2.) it is more appealing compared to other stores of value.
I don't see either of those happening unless there's anarchy-style revolution here in the US, but if that's the case we'd all have far bigger concerns than the composition of our investment portfolios.
Bitcoin may be difficult for people to invest. It makes little sense to most people since it does not create anything of true value. It is like gold, silver in that sense. It isn’t dangerous at this point, but highly volatile which makes it’s worth even more difficult to understand. If the dollar was that volatile then we would not use it as a form of currency. But that is a different conversation (ie dollar vs Bitcoin). It is not however a dangerous investment at this point. If you invested in Bitcoin 5 years ago and ignored the volatility then you would have been handsomely rewarded. UVXY is truly dangerous.
And if you invested 5 years ago and needed the money 3 years ago you were f*****.
I like the philosophy of investing in what you understand, spreading your risk and making slow and steady consistent investments.
Add in keeping debt manageable to nonexistent when possible
Add in keeping debt manageable to nonexistent when possible