OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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I wouldn't touch CDs either and your example ignores other possible alternatives.
Fixed Income is a death trap right now and only a fool would look to invest here. Investors don't look at T-bills
The Nasdaq was up about 4x in the 3 years prior to the bubble popping in 2000. And doubled in that final year.
In the last 3 years the Nasdaq is up less then 1x, and is up 30% in the last year.
If people want to argue the market is stretched right now? Sure. If they want to argue certain sectors or certain stocks are in bubble conditions. That's fine.
This market being exactly like the dot.com bubble? Nope.
The Daq has almost tripled in 4 years (and doubled since the pandemic started). Not normal. Tech stocks are exactly like the dot.com bubble. Exactly.
Tripled would be over 16K. I guess that's kind of almost., so significantly less of a move in a significantly
less period of time.
The fact that there was no covid, and the gov't and fed's response, makes it even more unlike the dot.com bubble.
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What’s the best place to put money right now awaiting the bubble to pop and inflation to take hold?
I'm pretty new to this myself so I'm not actually going to recommend a certain stock, or sector, but there are a wide range of opinions in the previous pages.
I will say though, if you expect a pop, then don't invest in anything that has been on a big recent run. And if you expect inflation then there are some obvious inflation plays.
I'm not sure he is willing to make any recommendations but @Frida's Boss is pretty highly respected here.
Check out the non-log graph for all years. Exactly (or today may be even worse). I hope the feds keep this party going, but you never know.
I just don't get it... I'm a believer in the company but it's way overvalued. This thing is either priced 40 years out as the top ev automaker in a fairly competitive marketplace or 10 years out as the sole player in evs. Either scenario doesn'take much sense. Competition is coming, big bets are being made. I could see a ford disappearing but gm, bmw and vw group will be here to stay.
Interestingly enough it seems like the us brands were behind in the days of hybrids, but they seem to be well positioned for ev revolution compared to the japanses and korean brands.
It opened 2017 at 5429. Triple of that is 16,290. We are currently at 13,060.
Unless these beers are stronger then the can says?
I saw this guy with a sweet looking brand new Toyota 4Runner. I asked if it was electric, and he said it was a hybrid, and it just rang in my head like such an old fashioned idea. Like compact flourescents.
Agreed - it's crazy how that all changed. In fact I don't believe I've even read anything about any asian brands investing in EVs outside of chinese start ups. Might be wrong but I believe GM, Ford, Audi- VW, And german brands have leaned in. Volvo/ polestar but that's chinese as well.
The accord guys on this forum are gonna lose their minds soon.
Tangent question:
On Etrade, is it possible to create multiple portfolios in one account? Right now, all of our investments are listed together. It seems like there should be this functionality, but I can't find it.
Yeah, I have 2 seperate portfolios, but I think it would require starting a new portfolio and then starting new positions within that portfolio. I don't think you can move positions from one portfolio to another.
Got up to $11, but came back down into the mid 7's. So down slightly after that early extending trading run.
Riot was up 17%, and an additional 8% in extended. MARA was very similar.
I sold out on BTCS yesterday like a dummy. Up 90% today.
Your early enough in the game. Just sell them and transfer the money. Though it does take a couple days for the cash to clear after a sale for you to transfer.F
I was thinking about creating new portfolio for my growing cyrpto assets.
But you could just add cash to a new portfolio, then once that cash clears, sell you crypto in the other account and buy the equivalent in the new account.
Maybe it was posted but JP Morgan put a price target for BTC at $146K.
I don't have all the details, but I head a true story this week about someone that was selling their home, maybe a year ago. A potential buyer offered the sale price in bitcoin. The seller declined. Not sure what happened with the final transaction, and of course who knows what investments are going to do, but can you imagine?
So I'm thinking Crypto is my hedge against inflation, while gold/metals/mining are my hedge against Crypto.
And Oil fits in there somewhere.
And Oil fits in there somewhere.
Health care and pharma looking good. Buying more PRHSX. From Morningstar on undervalued HC stocks:
In case there is a paywall:
Top Picks
Biogen (BIIB)
Star Rating: ★★★★
Economic Moat Rating: Wide
Fair Value Estimate: $346
Fair Value Uncertainty: High
While uncertainty still surrounds Biogen's Alzheimer's platform, we are bullish on the firm's multiple sclerosis drugs and strong neurology entrenchment. Biogen leads the $20 billion global MS market with Avonex, Plegridy, Tysabri, Ocrevus (royalties) and Tecfidera, and the launch of Vumerity partly protects the Tecfidera franchise from generic headwinds in the U.S. Biogen's neurology portfolio outside of MS, including Spinraza and pipeline therapies for several neurological diseases including Parkinson's, ALS, and Alzheimer's, should help diversify revenue and boost sales growth.
Biomarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)
Star Rating: ★★★★
Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
Fair Value Estimate: $101
Fair Value Uncertainty: Medium
We view BioMarin as undervalued as the market overreacted to the delayed launch of hemophilia A gene therapy Roctavian. BioMarin's orphan-drug portfolio and strong late-stage pipeline continue to support a narrow moat rating, and despite Roctavian's delay (launch likely in 2022 instead of 2020), we're still bullish on the upcoming launch of achondroplasia drug vosoritide in 2021. In addition, we still think Roctavian data support the drug's safety and long-term efficacy, and competitors are just entering phase 3 trials. Similarly, BioMarin is far ahead of competitors in achondroplasia, which has no approved treatments.
CVS Health (CVS)
Star Rating: ★★★★
Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
Fair Value Estimate: $92
Fair Value Uncertainty: Medium
The firm's combination with Aetna should put the company in a much more attractive competitive position as the industry moves toward preferring a more integrated service offering. Investors should benefit from meaningful cost and selling synergies associated with the combination of a leading medical benefits business with the largest PBM and retail pharmacy network in the country. However, the social distancing period caused by the coronavirus is a concern for the retail business, but we don't forecast this as a long-term headwind.
In case there is a paywall:
Top Picks
Biogen (BIIB)
Star Rating: ★★★★
Economic Moat Rating: Wide
Fair Value Estimate: $346
Fair Value Uncertainty: High
While uncertainty still surrounds Biogen's Alzheimer's platform, we are bullish on the firm's multiple sclerosis drugs and strong neurology entrenchment. Biogen leads the $20 billion global MS market with Avonex, Plegridy, Tysabri, Ocrevus (royalties) and Tecfidera, and the launch of Vumerity partly protects the Tecfidera franchise from generic headwinds in the U.S. Biogen's neurology portfolio outside of MS, including Spinraza and pipeline therapies for several neurological diseases including Parkinson's, ALS, and Alzheimer's, should help diversify revenue and boost sales growth.
Biomarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)
Star Rating: ★★★★
Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
Fair Value Estimate: $101
Fair Value Uncertainty: Medium
We view BioMarin as undervalued as the market overreacted to the delayed launch of hemophilia A gene therapy Roctavian. BioMarin's orphan-drug portfolio and strong late-stage pipeline continue to support a narrow moat rating, and despite Roctavian's delay (launch likely in 2022 instead of 2020), we're still bullish on the upcoming launch of achondroplasia drug vosoritide in 2021. In addition, we still think Roctavian data support the drug's safety and long-term efficacy, and competitors are just entering phase 3 trials. Similarly, BioMarin is far ahead of competitors in achondroplasia, which has no approved treatments.
CVS Health (CVS)
Star Rating: ★★★★
Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
Fair Value Estimate: $92
Fair Value Uncertainty: Medium
The firm's combination with Aetna should put the company in a much more attractive competitive position as the industry moves toward preferring a more integrated service offering. Investors should benefit from meaningful cost and selling synergies associated with the combination of a leading medical benefits business with the largest PBM and retail pharmacy network in the country. However, the social distancing period caused by the coronavirus is a concern for the retail business, but we don't forecast this as a long-term headwind.
I've been looking at BIIB given where it is relative to where it was to start the year, it's current P/E, it's EPS, but's it's revs and earnings are estimated to decrease in upcoming years, and there are some court cases hanging around. Are those estimates going to be correct,? what happens with those court cases? I don't know, but as we talked about recently pharma's often seem to have these weighty question marks hanging around.
Morgan Stanly also has a $350ish price target.
Pharma and biotech are areas I could perhaps go ETF. Still mulling that.
Long term, not this year.
They also say this.
“While we cannot exclude the possibility that the current speculative mania will propagate further pushing the Bitcoin price up toward the consensus region of between $50,000-$100,000, we believe that such price levels would prove unsustainable.”
Which, ya know, does make sense, it can't be this easy.
I've been in pharma/biotech my entire career. Started as a consultant at Biogen and now a first line exec at a one of the biggies. Even with tons of non-public info, I am constantly surprised by trial results, FDA decisions, and lawsuits. This unpredictability screams for a fund. And I mean managed fund over an ETF/index. I haven't compared all options, but I assume having a full-time expert managing a portfolio is the way to go.
I have PRHSX via my largest 401k account. I'm in deep and wish I jumped in sooner.
At its current market cap, TSLA is valued more than the world‘s top ten automakers, combined. These automakers produced 140x as many automobiles as TSLA last year. And they made money from selling these cars, not just from a carbon tax credit.
So, what does the price of TSLA imply for its market share of global auto sales? And for the size of that total market? Basic questions.
I think it's going to have have some pull backs. A lot of the Wall St people who bought in at 20k are looking at 100% returns in what 6 weeks? Im sure there will continue to be sells offs, but every dip thats happened since Thanksgiving has quickly rebounded. A big reason for this is Paypal & Square users essentially buying all the new BTC that is mined.
I think it'll rise to 45 - 50 in the next month, see a dip to the 30s and rise again. When it hit 22 or 23, I told friends of mine looking to get in to wait for the dip. The dip hasnt happened and I've angered some folk who kept waiting for a dip.
Im not a market expert, but I see an environment where people are about to receive $2k for nothing. Combine that with vax rollout, lowest credit card debt weve seen in a while, higher personal savings and pent up demand from 2020, and the market looks to me lie its going to explode. Again, not an expert, but Im not going to sit on the sidelines.
The inflation play IMO is crypto. BTC is obvious, but there's others w potential.
Ive been gobbling up the Decred (DCR) coin when I can. Of all the alt coins, it appears to have the best potential to be the "next bitcoin", but everyone though everything was the next BTC in 2017. Of all the alts, this one has real potential!
I was thinking about creating new portfolio for my growing cyrpto assets.
Just buy the coins themselves. Gemini & Coinbase are really easy to use platforms that are safe, reliable and insured.
It's insanity. A good friend who owns a domestic auto dealership would always gripe at this with me. I always point out that that valuing Tesla on auto sales alone isnt a proper barometer. They're a tech/data company, and the money is always in the data.
You also have to ask why their credit ratings are in the high yield category. Yes, they’ve been upgraded, but still firmly junk. For the bonds, inevitably, the agencies views are dismissed, pointing out how poorly they assessed subprime mortgage instruments. Of course, corporate credit is very different than rating subprime CDOs, and the agencies have been reasonable good at corporate credit over a long time,
Ok, but how and when will they monetize this data? What is the data? Who will pay for it, and why? Why haven’t they monetized this yet? Don’t get me wrong, I love to find stocks where there is an imbedded free option on some moentizable asset, but what are investors paying for this tech and date asset? Because it’s certainly not free.
Look, I’m not a buyer. I’m also not going to short it. Another lesson from 2000 is shorting stocks with enormous increases that are overvalued is a sure way to go broke, This thing could double or triple for all I know, but if I’m right, it’s going to crater and you won’t have value buyers stepping in for a loooong time,
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Anyone actually use Bitcoin or crypto currency in a transaction?
I am a big believer of Peter Lynch of invest in what you know/use. One reason I never directly invested in Twitter or Facebook. It’s also the reason I won’t invest in gold or Bitcoin.
I am a big believer of Peter Lynch of invest in what you know/use. One reason I never directly invested in Twitter or Facebook. It’s also the reason I won’t invest in gold or Bitcoin.
@bob-loblaw said:
"I think it's going to have have some pull backs. A lot of the Wall St people who bought in at 20k are looking at 100% returns in what 6 weeks? Im sure there will continue to be sells offs, but every dip thats happened since Thanksgiving has quickly rebounded. A big reason for this is Paypal & Square users essentially buying all the new BTC that is mined.
I think it'll rise to 45 - 50 in the next month, see a dip to the 30s and rise again. When it hit 22 or 23, I told friends of mine looking to get in to wait for the dip. The dip hasnt happened and I've angered some folk who kept waiting for a dip. "
I completely agree, and said almost verbatim, the same things to my friends who asked about buying bitcoin or GBTC. Volatility and 24/7 trading of bitcoin are not for the faint of heart. But the overall picture, painted by institutions and the scarcity of it, are positive longterm.
"I think it's going to have have some pull backs. A lot of the Wall St people who bought in at 20k are looking at 100% returns in what 6 weeks? Im sure there will continue to be sells offs, but every dip thats happened since Thanksgiving has quickly rebounded. A big reason for this is Paypal & Square users essentially buying all the new BTC that is mined.
I think it'll rise to 45 - 50 in the next month, see a dip to the 30s and rise again. When it hit 22 or 23, I told friends of mine looking to get in to wait for the dip. The dip hasnt happened and I've angered some folk who kept waiting for a dip. "
I completely agree, and said almost verbatim, the same things to my friends who asked about buying bitcoin or GBTC. Volatility and 24/7 trading of bitcoin are not for the faint of heart. But the overall picture, painted by institutions and the scarcity of it, are positive longterm.
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Agreed, I get they are more than just a car company, but they aren't a data company like Google, amazon, fb. Those guys know what you are browsing, habits, thinking. Tsla won't collect that data beyond when you are in the car. If anything they are a consolidation of auto marketplace , auto refueling and potentially the ride share/ drive for hire industry. I just don't see the upside anymore with essentially most of that prices in already. I know it's probably going to still go up for now as the hysterical buying continues but I have to believe reality will hit soon.
If I put my tinfoil hat on this feels like pump and dump where the smart money will get out once all the teachers unions and blue collar and govt unions have all bought in with their retirements at these atronomical valuations.
The data is in everything associated with the vehicle. Where you go, how you drive, what you connect to vehicle, they expand on everything thats connected to that device. https://www.tesla.com/about/legal I love this snippet here:
We may share information with:
(1) Our service providers and business partners when necessary to perform services on our or on your behalf
Tesla is no different than Facebook, Google or Amazon in that they are in the data collection business. Sorry, I dont have a direct answer on how they monetize it. All tech has one goal in mind; data collection. I'll compare it to McDonalds. The data and underlying tech is the real estate and the vehicles are the restaurants. Not the best comparison, but that's how I view Tesla.
I don't have a huge position in them. Im just trying to make the point that people often fll into the trap of looking at their value to just auto sales.
