OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

All those companies added up still can’t justify the current valuation. I have looked into the solar/battery and Cars from TSLA. They make a great product but it’s super expensive. None of their products make economic sense. But they are beautiful products that appeal to the upper class. I would be a buyer if they can show mass market appeal (affordability).

Cost of ownership is far less. Electricity is cheaper and more efficient than petrol. No service/ maintenance. Less parts, less problems. I've had my EV for 1.5 years, and I've done zero service/maintenance/repairs.
You're also forgetting resale value. Check the used car market. OTA software updates (free) improve the vehicle over time. My car is a better vehicle today than when I first bought it.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

I believe Tesla has utilized total tax credits allowed for buyers at the federal level. I'm not sure what the states offer except that it varies.

You are correct about federal tax credit. States vary. NJ is $5K.
We could see federal tax credits for all EVs with the new admin.

 

[Jtung230*]

Cost of ownership is far less. Electricity is cheaper and more efficient. No service/ maintenance. Less parts, less problems. I've had my EV for 1.5 years, and I've done zero service/maintenance/repairs.
You're also forgetting resale value. Check the used car market. OTA software updates (free) improve the vehicle over time. My car is a better vehicle today than when I first bought it.

I’m not disputing any of that. It is a great product, but not an affordable product. That’s why it can’t capture the market share it needs for the valuation.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’m not disputing any of that. It is a great product, but not an affordable product. That’s why it can’t capture the market share it needs for the valuation.

Very true. Until Telsa come up with a well performing model for $20-25K, the majority of the market will not be accessible to them.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Overall a good day, especially for small and mid caps.

 

[Jtung230*]

Very true. Until Telsa come up with a well performing model for $20-25K, the majority of the market will not be accessible to them.

Unless they can beat a Honda Accord?

 

[RUBlackout]

With cheap gas and the pandemic still going on there is less need to switch to EV yet still occurring.

I expect Oil prices and bond yields to rise this year with inflation Causing the dollar to drop. With the US having to rely on oil importing this will push up gas prices and the talk about EV will only pickup IMO.
I think the current price on TSLA is scary based on revenues and car production but I believe everyone is betting on them as an energy business that will thrive in the future. Everyday I considering selling my shares but so hard to pull the trigger knowing what this could be. Dangerous game I know

 

[RUAldo]

I'd say TSLA is an excellent, fast growing business, that has been, and continues to be helped by tax credits.

Their stock price might be a house of cards, but the business is not.

TSLA EV market share in Europe is on the decline as VW took the lead. If the tax credits/rebates disappeared tomorrow TSLA would tank.

 

[tom1944]

Bitcoin problem

Lost Passwords Lock Millionaires Out of Their Bitcoin Fortunes - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Bitcoin problem

Lost Passwords Lock Millionaires Out of Their Bitcoin Fortunes - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

#yikes

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

TSLA EV market share in Europe is on the decline as VW took the lead. If the tax credits/rebates disappeared tomorrow TSLA would tank.

Does Tesla have a factory in Europe? No. Does Tesla deliver to every European county every month? No. So I'd be curious to see which time periods you're cherry picking. Regardless, just wait till Giga Berlin starts pumping out Model Y this summer, with the front and rear casting, and Tesla's own 4680 battery cells.

Besides, "EV market share" is irrelevant. >98% of the vehicles on the road are ICE. That's the market share Tesla, and every other EV maker is after. Tesla continues to break production records quarter after quarter, and they sell every vehicle the make. They have 2 new factories coming on line this year, so this record breaking quarter over quarter trend will continue for the foreseeable future.

Tesla buyers have not been eligible for federal tax credits for over a year. They've increased production, sales, and revenue during a global f-ing pandemic, while every other auto has seen sales decline. What else ya got?

 

[RU05]

How many car companies are selling a $10K software upgrade? What's the margin on that?
The energy business is up and running already, and has enormous potential for future growth. In their 3rd Q conference call, Tesla stated it had more demand than supply for energy storage through 2021. $Trillions ripe for disruption in energy.

A very techy car company no doubt, and yes they have many potential branch out options, and all that future revenue is part of the bull case, I don't argue against that. But right now their revenue is from auto sales.

 

[RU05]

Bitcoin problem

Lost Passwords Lock Millionaires Out of Their Bitcoin Fortunes - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Doesn't sound like a Bitcoin problem. It sounds like some people are dumb as hell.

 

[RUAldo]

Does Tesla have a factory in Europe? No. Does Tesla deliver to every European county every month? No. So I'd be curious to see which time periods you're cherry picking. Regardless, just wait till Giga Berlin starts pumping out Model Y this summer, with the front and rear casting, and Tesla's own 4680 battery cells.

Besides, "EV market share" is irrelevant. >98% of the vehicles on the road are ICE. That's the market share Tesla, and every other EV maker is after. Tesla continues to break production records quarter after quarter, and they sell every vehicle the make. They have 2 new factories coming on line this year, so this record breaking quarter over quarter trend will continue for the foreseeable future.

Tesla buyers have not been eligible for federal tax credits for over a year. They've increased production, sales, and revenue during a global f-ing pandemic, while every other auto has seen sales decline. What else ya got?

My bad - I meant regulatory credits. On that note, Tesla isn’t profitable based on its sales - it sold $428 million worth of regulatory credits in the last quarter. Nevertheless, sound like a typical Robinhood trader. Come talk to me when Tesla craters. Yeah, most companies have a PE ratio of 1,680. Apple has a PE of 39. Google 33. Amazon 90. Tesla didn’t even hit its 500K delivery target. All you need to look at is how the Robinhood traders are buying up Options (which they don’t even understand) to realize Tesla is a bubble. I’m not saying Tesla isn’t a great company led by a visionary. I’m saying Tesla’s valuation is dot.com era nonsense.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Cost of ownership is far less. Electricity is cheaper and more efficient than petrol. No service/ maintenance. Less parts, less problems. I've had my EV for 1.5 years, and I've done zero service/maintenance/repairs.
You're also forgetting resale value. Check the used car market. OTA software updates (free) improve the vehicle over time. My car is a better vehicle today than when I first bought it.

how is cost of ownership less? your math is going to be fun math?

 

[RUTGERS95]

My bad - I meant regulatory credits. On that note, Tesla isn’t profitable based on its sales - it sold $428 million worth of regulatory credits in the last quarter. Nevertheless, sound like a typical Robinhood trader. Come talk to me when Tesla craters. Yeah, most companies have a PE ratio of 1,680. Apple has a PE of 39. Google 33. Amazon 90. Tesla didn’t even hit its 500K delivery target. All you need to look at is how the Robinhood traders are buying up Options (which they don’t even understand) to realize Tesla is a bubble. I’m not saying Tesla isn’t a great company led by a visionary. I’m saying Tesla’s valuation is dot.com era nonsense.

agree with you and Frida
I find it almost embarrassing for people who are trying to justify the valuation.

 

[RUBlackout]

I am not trying to justify the valuation of TSLA by any means. I own a good portion of the stock in my portfolio as a % to everything else. I have done well on it and always figuring this will crater at some point due to where it stands.

That said, are we sure we understand what this company is or will be and why the valuation is so high? Yes it is propped up by the robinhood group and everyone is enamored with Musk--just look at his remarks about WhatApp and Signal and the aftermath there...

That said, I remember another company that had a similar problem. They also had a CEO who everyonewas/is enamored with--Jeff Bezos.

During the past 13 years, the highest PE Ratio of Amazon.com was 3732.43. So lets that sink if for a second as their current P/E is around 90.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I am not trying to justify the valuation of TSLA by any means. I own a good portion of the stock in my portfolio as a % to everything else. I have done well on it and always figuring this will crater at some point due to where it stands.

That said, are we sure we understand what this company is or will be and why the valuation is so high? Yes it is propped up by the robinhood group and everyone is enamored with Musk--just look at his remarks about WhatApp and Signal and the aftermath there...

That said, I remember another company that had a similar problem. They also had a CEO who everyonewas/is enamored with--Jeff Bezos.

During the past 13 years, the highest PE Ratio of Amazon.com was 3732.43. So lets that sink if for a second as their current P/E is around 90.

Amazon stock also cratered after the dot.com bubble popped and took years to recover (IIRC).

 

[RUBlackout]

Amazon stock also cratered after the dot.com bubble popped and took years to recover (IIRC).

Thats why I only looked at this over the last 13yrs to exclude the dot.com bubble. Ultimately, people were placing bets on the future of the company and revenues they would gain down the road. Again not trying to compare business models between TSLA and AMZN. Just some food for thought

 

[T2Kplus20]

Thats why I only looked at this over the last 13yrs to exclude the dot.com bubble. Ultimately, people were placing bets on the future of the company and revenues they would gain down the road. Again not trying to compare business models between TSLA and AMZN. Just some food for thought

It may be an excellent comparison. TSLA can crater for a few years yet they still can emerge as a transformational company. This is what happened with Amazon. Excitement about the vision of what Tesla can be is outpacing what it actually is in the present.

 

[Jtung230*]

Does Tesla have a factory in Europe? No. Does Tesla deliver to every European county every month? No. So I'd be curious to see which time periods you're cherry picking. Regardless, just wait till Giga Berlin starts pumping out Model Y this summer, with the front and rear casting, and Tesla's own 4680 battery cells.

Besides, "EV market share" is irrelevant. >98% of the vehicles on the road are ICE. That's the market share Tesla, and every other EV maker is after. Tesla continues to break production records quarter after quarter, and they sell every vehicle the make. They have 2 new factories coming on line this year, so this record breaking quarter over quarter trend will continue for the foreseeable future.

Tesla buyers have not been eligible for federal tax credits for over a year. They've increased production, sales, and revenue during a global f-ing pandemic, while every other auto has seen sales decline. What else ya got?

Funny that you are calling out people for cherry picking. You flip back and forth when it suits you. It’s market share when compared to volume and growth when talking about production and sales. One thing we do know is that the stock is performing. Congrats on that.

 

[RUTGERS95]

I am not trying to justify the valuation of TSLA by any means. I own a good portion of the stock in my portfolio as a % to everything else. I have done well on it and always figuring this will crater at some point due to where it stands.

That said, are we sure we understand what this company is or will be and why the valuation is so high? Yes it is propped up by the robinhood group and everyone is enamored with Musk--just look at his remarks about WhatApp and Signal and the aftermath there...

That said, I remember another company that had a similar problem. They also had a CEO who everyonewas/is enamored with--Jeff Bezos.

During the past 13 years, the highest PE Ratio of Amazon.com was 3732.43. So lets that sink if for a second as their current P/E is around 90.

Vastly different as one revolutionized purchasing and delivery on global scale while the other relies on govt to sell its product to a consumer base that is very small by comparison

 

[Jtung230*]

Interesting article on Bloomberg today on TSLA. Now I get why the stock is flying high.

 

[RU05]

Interesting article on Bloomberg today on TSLA. Now I get why the stock is flying high.

Quick summary?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Interesting article on Bloomberg today on TSLA. Now I get why the stock is flying high.

Link?

 

[RU05]

Intel up 7% on news that the CEO is stepping down.

edit: 12%

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

how is cost of ownership less? your math is going to be fun math?

Model 3 vs A5 vs Camry
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/total-cost-of-ownership-tesla-model-3-vs-toyota-camry
Cost calculator:
https://ev.pge.com/
Resale value:
https://electrek.co/2019/06/17/tesla-holds-value-better-than-average-car-study/

 

[RU05]

Thats why I only looked at this over the last 13yrs to exclude the dot.com bubble. Ultimately, people were placing bets on the future of the company and revenues they would gain down the road. Again not trying to compare business models between TSLA and AMZN. Just some food for thought

If you bought AMZN at the very peak of the dot.com bubble, and held it till today, you'be up about 20x.

Now AMZN is the ultimate example, but the TSLA folks think TSLA is the new ultimate example.

 

[Jtung230*]

The only way TSLA can be more like AMZN is if someone else make the cars and they just sell them and provide software.

 

[RU05]

INTC also reporting q4 rev's will top guidance.

That would be 3 positive newsprints in a row for INTC. For a giant company that has seen it's earnings nearly double from 2015 to 2020, the cold shoulder it has gotten over the past couple years does seem a bit misplaced. This is not GE or IBM that has seen it's earnings dwindling for years.

I should have kept a stiffer upper lip and held in there through the last dip, but this may still be a good time to get back in. I imagine the CEO they bring in will have panache, and I bet the market will approve.

It has upside, and given some of those multiples this is likely a pretty safe play if you think a bubble popping is in our future.

 

[BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap]

My bad - I meant regulatory credits. On that note, Tesla isn’t profitable based on its sales - it sold $428 million worth of regulatory credits in the last quarter. Nevertheless, sound like a typical Robinhood trader. Come talk to me when Tesla craters. Yeah, most companies have a PE ratio of 1,680. Apple has a PE of 39. Google 33. Amazon 90. Tesla didn’t even hit its 500K delivery target. All you need to look at is how the Robinhood traders are buying up Options (which they don’t even understand) to realize Tesla is a bubble. I’m not saying Tesla isn’t a great company led by a visionary. I’m saying Tesla’s valuation is dot.com era nonsense.

Regulatory credits? Great! I have no problem with other car companies paying Telsa hundreds of $millions. It's like Tesla can build giant factories for free. See: Wright's law, S-Curve adoption of disruptive technology. Tesla continues to drive down the cost of batteries, improve energy density, and lower manufacturing costs. Since Tesla is vertically integrated, they can do all of these things faster than anyone. Elon said at Battery Day that his goal is for Telsa to better at manufacturing than any other company in the world. If you haven't seen the Battery Day presentation, I suggest watching. They've won the decade. It's not debatable.

I'm not a robinhood trader, nor do I trade options. I'm not a short term gambler, I'm a long term investor. I won't be selling a single share of Tesla any time soon. The fact that you brought up the 500K delivery # tells me you're drinking the TSLAQ Kool-Aid. How's that worked out so far? Why would you be using the talking points of the dipshits who have lost $millions? 499,550 w/ a 0.5% variance. Really? During a global pandemic and with a factory shutdown. Not a strong argument .

The transition to EVs, sustainable energy, energy storage, and autonomy is inevitable. I'm convinced of this. Tesla is at the forefront of these technologies, which are all huge revenue streams. Why then, would tsla tank? Especially given the company's track record of leadership, innovation, cost reduction, and manufacturing. Volatile in the short term? Absolutely. But again, I could care less what tsla does day to day, or even Q to Q.
I'm really going to blow your mind now. I think Tesla is undervalued.

 

[RU05]

On a day when Crypto's are down almost across the board. A bit of interesting price action.

BTCS, which was below .25 cents a couple weeks ago and has been on an absolute tear up to $1.65 is up 17% today. So the crypto's themselves are down. The periphery stocks are down. BTCS up.

What does BTCS do If BTC regains it's footing again?

 

[RU05]

Not that $500 million is nothing. But TSLA had $31B in revenues last year. The tax credits did help push it from unprofitable to profitable, but it's not a significant portion of rev's and TSLA will be profitable in upcoming years with or without those credits.

 

[RU05]

ZOM regrouping and down 25% today.

 

[Jtung230*]

Not that $500 million is nothing. But TSLA had $31B in revenues last year. The tax credits did help push it from unprofitable to profitable, but it's not a significant portion of rev's and TSLA will be profitable in upcoming years with or without those credits.

GM’s rev for 2020 was ~$116B. It’s about profit margins. The credits help them sell cars at losses or BE to get market share.

 

[RU05]

Man look at the 3 year chart for INTC. That thing has bounced off that $45 support level 7 times.

 

[bob-loblaw]

Bitcoin problem

Lost Passwords Lock Millionaires Out of Their Bitcoin Fortunes - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

This is a good problem for those of us who hold our passwords. More coins out of circulation the better.

Can I kindly ask for a 48 hr pause on Tesla discussions. There's often good info here and I have to sift through 4 pages of TSLA banter to find it. I feel like were 2 steps away from turning into Wallstreetbets here...

I've spent the last 3 mos further diving down the crypto well. Need to shift some focus back to the stock market, as my crypto portfolio has grown too quickly, and I need to diversify more. I feel like with a lot more stimmy coming, we're going to see some pretty serious growth.

 

[RU05]

GM’s rev for 2020 was ~$116B. It’s about profit margins. The credits help them sell cars at losses or BE to get market share.

We all know GM is currently a bigger company. That is not the story though. Or actually, is part of the story, in that the TSLA bull case includes eating into GM's market share.

I mentioned this the other day. TSLA rev's are up 8x since 2015. And are expecting to double again in the next couple years.

GM's 2020 rev's are less then their 2015 rev's, with some relatively modest expected growth in the next couple years.

Now GM is my biggest position and I don't hold TSLA, so I agree with the conclusions that TSLA is overpriced(while I think GM has a ton of upside left), but the business of TSLA looks to be in an excellent place.

 

[RU05]

Bitcoin problem

Lost Passwords Lock Millionaires Out of Their Bitcoin Fortunes - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Did they also forget the name of their cat? Or what high school they attended?

 

[RU05]

GAMESTOP up 60% today.

Why? No reason.