OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Unfortunately, that’s exactly what the RH traders are doing. Fundamentals no longer exist with a large segment of retail traders. Enter GameStop. The high short interest coupled with the RH traders’ familiarity with the stores from their video game buying days created the perfect storm. By the way, I didn’t come up with this theory but agree with it.
I like Disney too just not when it has a PE of -115. I also agree on the dividend move but typically a company gets obliterated when it cuts the dividend (as opposed to doubling).
But we know the PE, or lack there of, is a special circumstance, "if" we get post Covid this is a high profit organization.
Per what is typical? Again, Covid, not much is typical.
I use RH and so do probably most of my friends that have a non-retirement brokerage account, and I don't know a single person that decides their investments based on childhood nostalgia. Maybe not everyone is diving deep into statistical analysis, but at the end of the day everyone is in it to make money. It's not as if they're just liking Disney's facebook page, nobody is investing in a company just because they were a part of their youth. Everyone buying GME was because of the coordinated attempt at a short squeeze followed by others trying to hop on board for the ride up. It was a short-term play.
If it was just about what we had when we were kids, then why aren't millennials pouring money into Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, Apple, etc? When you were in your 20s and 30s, did you choose your investments based on how familiar you were with the company as a child or were you trying to make money?
I shouldn't even go here, but I'm a couple beers deep.
Just a note regarding my time following the stock market, which admittedly is less then a year. If you want to know what is going on in the world, follow the market and watch the financial channels.
The "News" news? Terrible. Social media news? Even worse.
Just a note regarding my time following the stock market, which admittedly is less then a year. If you want to know what is going on in the world, follow the market and watch the financial channels.
The "News" news? Terrible. Social media news? Even worse.
That is a a mantra of some big name old timey investors: "Buy what you know".
I don't agree with it. I mean, what if you were a newspaper guy? That industry is dying (Buffet fell into this trap). And who the heck knows how a computer chip works? All I know is chips are in everything and that trend is not changing . And oh yeah, big shortage.
From there you look at some basic fundamentals.
Old folks would die broke if they invested along the "buy what you know" line.
I've mentioned and have been in on this one for a bit, but I'm not sure I've ever realized how small of a market cap this thing is.
RWLK. Current market cap of just 84 mil.
Only fairly recently approved for medicare approval(something like this). Rev's expected to grow 4x in the next couple years. The former I expect driving the latter. Not too crazy at 14x price to sales.
The technology looks a little funky(U can youtube it) but who knows where it is in a couple years.
Jumping lately. Is that due to RH? Or something bigger?
RWLK. Current market cap of just 84 mil.
Only fairly recently approved for medicare approval(something like this). Rev's expected to grow 4x in the next couple years. The former I expect driving the latter. Not too crazy at 14x price to sales.
The technology looks a little funky(U can youtube it) but who knows where it is in a couple years.
Jumping lately. Is that due to RH? Or something bigger?
Trust me, I’m not saying I’m an expert on RH traders, but research has shown that they gravitate towards brands and companies they know as opposed to relying on fundamentals. MS and Apple have been RH trader targets. FWIW, I tend to start my research in areas that I’m familiar with but in the end I only buy companies I believe are good investments as opposed to trades.
Might I recommend you read "One Up On Wall Street" by Peter Lynch. He is (was as far as working is concerned) a " buy what you know guy" and ran Fidelity Magellan when it was ringing up returns like the Ark funds in the 80's and early 90's.
I think his was the video that was posted in this thread a couple months back?
If people want to roll with that mantra, that's fine.
But to me it doesn't make much sense. Who knows semiconductors? I mean I know they are in everything, is that all it takes? I have no clue how they actually work, or who makes better ones. I can go to the sector and see who is making money(which could be a trap) and who is growing revenues/earnings.
One of the first stocks I ever bought years ago was RIDE snowboards. Why? Cause I was 20 years old and I was a snowboarder. That knowledge did me nothing. I lost a bundle(by my meager standards)and the experience kept me out of the market for years.
Recognize trends and find the best companies in those trends. Large caps for stability, small caps for high risk high reward. And yes do some fundamental homework. And never get wedded to a company. That's how I see it.
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Morgan Stanley is a big RH stock? Or MSFT? Both look to be in a pretty solid place.
Hmm, on second thought, SOXX doesn't overlap with HAIL or IDRV that much. Morningstar has a great tool called Portfolio X-Ray and it compares and breaks down holding of funds.
Looks like SOXX will be joining our brokerage account. Let's roll!
Koss, was a product of ****** reporting on CNBC. So many of the "reddit stocks" were merely either diversion plays by cnbc or just plain downright lazy reporting. WSB had no commentary on stocks like Koss, Express, BBBY and other random ones that were often put up on the aire and lumped w GME
Reverse Splits always worry me.
1) What's this about diversion plays? I dunno about that, but what is the story on KOSS?
2)reverse split?
I think "not following the market" lets things stand out. The word "market" might not fit "stock market" anymore since its a protected bubble. Its like musical chairs except that when the music stops and you're left without a chair, the government comes in and builds you one at taxpayer expense. There is no downside for the oligarchy in the bubble markets. You can see the bubbles and know they will burst. In 2007 real estate, I saw "For Sale" signs up all over the place. It was a feeding frenzy and the situation was obviously unsustainable. If I was watching financial news I might have thought all was well. Look how some people get swatted for crimes and others get better jobs. All is rigged to benefit some and not ethers . The news wont tell you that for the most part
Best pollster in nation who worked markets:
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Just watched this about Polkadot and Cardano. Didn't understand 3/4 of the stuff! LOL. Do any cryptos besides BTC and ETH have a legit future? As in, beyond a limited niche.
I'm retired and volunteer at a charity. We had to meet on Zoom. I bought the stock because I figured if I was using it at my age, people in business must be using it. If I like a product I often buy the stock.
Working backwards here...
2 - The stock you mention performed a 25 - 1 reverse split in 2019. My fave is Tops Ships, which has done 9 or 10 reverse splits in the last decade. Companies often do this to avoid being de-listed. I always worry seeing stocks that have done this.
1 - I've had multiple conversations with people in the media early on when GME-mania first started. AMC & BB were quickly lumped into the WSB narrative, and rightfully so, as they were discussed there. But the other horseshit... Koss, Express, Bed Bath Beyond, Tanger Malls or any other short stock that got lumped in with GME, Reddit or WSB the last 2 weeks, were clear diversion plays away from GME.
I pointed this out repeatedly in multiple conversations that these stocks were getting zero play on WSB, yet the lumping together continued. It was blatantly obvious what was going on day 2 when GME started to moon. Everyone was focused on GME on WSB. Maybe some BB talk, but that was it. That morning, Cramer did nothing but deflect away from GME and talk about BBBY. Blatantly saying WSB was pushing that stock. They werent.
Next day began the dump of every shorted stock together to pull focus from GME. Bots actively trolled WSB pushing other stocks, yet GME kept pumping. Finally, RH and all the others did their actions stopping purchases to kill the stock.
I've done a lot of work in media, and I know how lazy/ eager to plagiarize journalists are. CNBC, WSJ and Fox Business set the narrative that all these stocks are being pushed by one community. Their respective cable news and local affiliates ran with a story that was spoon fed to them, thus "validating" the narrative they put out there aka the diversion.
By no stretch am I a conspiracy theorist. This just plays out so clearly to me its comical. Also, this is going to make a friggen amazing movie.
1)So what was the story of Koss?
2)I didn't know about the reverse split. At this point if they've hit that revenue turning point it doesn't matter. I started with a very small position, thus even with a good gain it's not to point that I would sweat if it dropped. All about the rev's.
I like SOXX, it sticks with the big kahunas. XSD is way more nimble and moves things around all the time. It's slowing down after a run where it seemed to outperform SOXX quite a bit. I try to go about 50/50 between those two. Every few months, I benchmark each trade against VTI, QQQ, DIA, and XSD. I don't know of any ETF that has beaten XSD over the past 5-7 years (maybe some ARKs but I don't know how long those have been around)
Fair enough but I think that can be said for most people buying individual stocks.
I have grown increasingly skeptical. Iota and Ripple seemed to have something behind them when I got into crypto about 3 or 4 years ago, but I have yet to receive an explanation as to how the success of the service they offer is connected to the value of their cryptocurrency. I've also noticed that C20, the crypto "mutual fund" of sorts that invests in the top 20 cryptocurrencies which I have mentioned I think way back in this thread, has been severely underperforming compared to BTC and ETH. Seems like diversifying has been a real hindrance.
Yeah and I think SLV is part of that diversion too. I've seen more discussion about the WSB people being idiots for thinking they can short squeeze silver than I have seen actual discussion of doing so on WSB.
One of the Reddit stocks, NAKD, jumped 35-40% earlier this week in one day. The last two days, there was an insane amount of volume on the stock. I monitor the Bid/Asks on StocksTracker. Every other stock is single/double digit Bids & Asks at any given time, and this NAKD stock is running in the 1,000s for volume.
In some cases the Bids were 5x-10x more than the Asks, why would the stock price not shoot up? Are the transactions so small they are not affecting the stock price? Are all of these Bids/Asks just Limit Orders that aren't aligning, so they don't clear? I've read it could be Hedge Fund ladder attacks who shorted the stock, and are basically transacting back and forth with small amounts/high frequency to slowing drive the stock price down.
In some cases the Bids were 5x-10x more than the Asks, why would the stock price not shoot up? Are the transactions so small they are not affecting the stock price? Are all of these Bids/Asks just Limit Orders that aren't aligning, so they don't clear? I've read it could be Hedge Fund ladder attacks who shorted the stock, and are basically transacting back and forth with small amounts/high frequency to slowing drive the stock price down.
I tend to agree with you. Kramer probably made a fortune off pushing the BBBY narrative during the GME madness as an under the radar play. And, since it’s a NJ based company I guarantee he has close ties with management and helped them out. I wonder if BBBY insiders were selling like Koss.
Great stuff, thanks for the reply. I looked at all 3 (SOXX, XSD, and SMH) and honestly, we are somewhat splitting hairs. Interestingly, all 3 look to mirror different semiconducter indexes, so their portfolios vary quite a bit:
SMH - only 25 stocks and focused on those traded in the US. Very top heavy with 14.5% going to TSM. SOXX has 30 stocks including those from global exchanges and a few smaller ones. XSD seems to be focused on smaller companies. Its top holding (SunPower) isn't even part of the other ETFs.
Regardless, the results are pretty similar:
1, 3, 5-year returns:
SOXX = 62.97, 33.43, 39.48
XSD = 75.29, 38.69, 36.58
SMH = 65.76, 33.86, 38.46
XSD wins on the 1 and 3 years returns, but SOXX is better over 5 years. Regardless, their portfolios are definitely complimentary, so I like your idea. 50/50 it is! I am doing a 50/50 for EV and smart mobility (between IDRV and HAIL).
Are you sure about that? Recent history would seem to contradict that, with GME and others being strictly trades with "good investment" be damned.
That's Lynch, with him going further and looking at the financials. He didn't look at the code, he looked at what you looked at.
Peter Lynch ran the most famous, and during his tenure, the most successful mutual fund, Fidelity Magellan. Its now being turned into an etf, FMAG, for large cap growth stocks. Lynch was famous for visiting companies, stores, warehouses, etc personally as a consumer. He also wouldn't invest in a company that he didn't understand. Those were simpler times. Companies' products are much more complicated these days, the majority of those I invest in that I barely understand how they work.
Fidelity Magellan mentioned in my 8:51 post last night. And Vandalen's Zoom mention was pure Lynch. He didn't have to understand Zoom's code and software. He had to understand how it worked and then went on to look at the financials. But this time it's different?
Question for the crypto guys: Did you ever hear of Blockfi? its a Crypto Bank that is setting up an crypto trading platform. Any thoughts?
Yes, its one of the factors in the rise of bitcoin. In fact, they will be merging with a SPAC, FUSE, to go public. I bought FUSE a couple weeks ago in anticipation of the BlockFi merger.
I jumped into Galaxy Digital last week. I don't think it is apples and apples with SPAC and FUSE, but still in the new crypto banking space.
Thanks, that was great info. I did some more digging and found this:
Rumors are saying its moneylion not Blockfi. I have no idea which is correct but thought you would be interested.
This is my "fun" account! Just for the crypto market. When in Rome! Our 7 retirement accounts are still all funds and efts.
My crypto portfolio = GBTC, ETHE, Hive, Galaxy, and Argo Blockchain
You should rename it your T2K ETF.This is my "fun" account! Just for the crypto market. When in Rome! Our 7 retirement accounts are still all funds and efts.
My crypto portfolio = GBTC, ETHE, Hive, Galaxy, and Argo Blockchain
+1 - 5 holding and counting (but very top heavy with the GBTC and ETHE)!
Speaking of ETH. News just hit CNBC:
I bought ETH on PayPal at 1207 a few weeks ago. Was hesitating and should have bought it a week earlier when it was 750.