OT: Stock and Investment Thread

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,810
18,823
113
We are in the midst of a great transition from the old industrial economy which began in the early to mid 1800’s to the technological economy which will be here for who knows how long. All of us will be long gone by the beginning of the next great change to the next great transition. Probably to commercialization of space industry. Quick story, bought GE when Jeff immelt took over for Jack Welch. My 100 shares which I bought for 53/sh. Closed today at 11.20/sh. This is 20 years after I bought the stock. At the time GE was the bluest of the blue chips. It was the highest capitalized company had a AAA credit rating. Here we are 20 years later and No one talks about owning GE. I keep it in my portfolio for one reason only...as a reminder that there is only one constant, change! Stay thirsty my friends.
Great post! Well done.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,810
18,823
113
Speaking of non revenue companies, specifically one in a transformative field, QS which recently came public via spac and flew up to $140 before coming back to $40, might be looking to run again. Jumped 10% today.

QS looks to make solid state lithium batteries. Jeremy Grantham is a big inverstor.
Not up to speed on lithium batteries. Would solid state batteries be good? :)
Are they partnered up with any particular EV makers?
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
18,962
12,160
82
Multi-year track record proves it's way more than marketing.
Interesting point.

2015 - 3.7%
2016 - 0.2%
2017 - 83.3%
2018 - (1.64%)
2019 - 37.17%
2020 - 165%

Hmmmmm

Btw, I graphed it against TSLA for the last 5 yrs the correlation was high.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
18,962
12,160
82
But if they manage the portfolio correctly they move on from the pets.com's of the market before they fall apart.

Actually they wouldn't even get into a pets.com to begin with, but you get the point.
True. But if you can only invest in disruptive innovation, you can’t rotate out of the sector.
 

bob-loblaw

Senior
Jan 23, 2011
2,033
852
0
A lot to catch up on here in this thread. But nice to see crypto having another nice day. BTC hovering near 38k. Eth at an all time high. Two of the alts Ive spoken about on here a lot DCR & AAVE are pooping as well. AAVE is up $150+ today to an all time high over $400, and DCR up almost 40% this week, chasing the all time highs. Looks like the sale on alt coins is quickly coming to an end.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,810
18,823
113
Interesting point.

2015 - 3.7%
2016 - 0.2%
2017 - 83.3%
2018 - (1.64%)
2019 - 37.17%
2020 - 165%

Hmmmmm

Btw, I graphed it against TSLA for the last 5 yrs the correlation was high.
ARKK was +3.5% in 2018, which was a wonderful year in a down market. So it has had 4 exceptional years in a row. Look at the portfolio, amazing returns for many holdings.

31 of their 47 holdings had 1-year returns over 100%. Any questions? LOL!

 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,810
18,823
113
A lot to catch up on here in this thread. But nice to see crypto having another nice day. BTC hovering near 38k. Eth at an all time high. Two of the alts Ive spoken about on here a lot DCR & AAVE are pooping as well. AAVE is up $150+ today to an all time high over $400, and DCR up almost 40% this week, chasing the all time highs. Looks like the sale on alt coins is quickly coming to an end.
+1
Cryptos are popping, especially ETH. I actually bought more BTC and ETH yesterday even though it increased my cost basis a little bit. I don't like to do that, but sometimes you run the risk of waiting too long. I'm sure they will trend down again soon and I have the cash ready to go to buy, buy, buy.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,593
9,123
113
A lot to catch up on here in this thread. But nice to see crypto having another nice day. BTC hovering near 38k. Eth at an all time high. Two of the alts Ive spoken about on here a lot DCR & AAVE are pooping as well. AAVE is up $150+ today to an all time high over $400, and DCR up almost 40% this week, chasing the all time highs. Looks like the sale on alt coins is quickly coming to an end.
$1670 for ETH. Battled awhile with that 1400-1450 level, but finally got through.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,810
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$1670 for ETH. Battled awhile with that 1400-1450 level, but finally got through.
Didn't drop as much as BTC did when it hit its past high and now broke through to a new high well before BTC does. ETH may be getting ready for a real breakout!

This should really help HIVE since they are big ETH miners.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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+1
Cryptos are popping, especially ETH. I actually bought more BTC and ETH yesterday even though it increased my cost basis a little bit. I don't like to do that, but sometimes you run the risk of waiting too long. I'm sure they will trend down again soon and I have the cash ready to go to buy, buy, buy.
Which, if you account by average purchase price, lowers the tax hit if you sell some in the future.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,810
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Which, if you account by average purchase price, lowers the tax hit if you sell some in the future.
Very true. This portfolio is for a home run, so I am likely to hold for quite a while. I want BTC at $1m and ETH at $250,000! :)
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,593
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Didn't drop as much as BTC did when it hit its past high and now broke through to a new high well before BTC does. ETH may be getting ready for a real breakout!

This should really help HIVE since they are big ETH miners.
Well remember BTC did break through it's old high of 19K, and went all the way to 42ish before pulling back.

ETH is just now breaking out. Could it double that high like BTC did? Would be nice.

Might bump up my HIVE a little.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,810
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Well remember BTC did break through it's old high of 19K, and went all the way to 42ish before pulling back.

ETH is just now breaking out. Could it double that high like BTC did? Would be nice.

Might bump up my HIVE a little.
That's true, BTC broke out before, but ETH also hit an all-time high around the same time (I think?).

Crazy timing, my financial advisor for our Roth IRA accounts wants to chat about adding 3-5% of GBTC to our holdings! Hmm. Perhaps 3% of GBTC and 3% of ETHE? This is one of our core retirement accounts and the only one that is managed.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Another non revenue company that is maybe worth watching.

TYME, a biotech company whose main focus is on cancer therapies, more then doubled Wednesday on news of a covid therapy patent, though still pre trials. Is down 30% this morning on new stock issuance.

Kind of surprised these covid therapies stocks still have jumps like this, this late in the game, but conversely I wonder if effectiveness here bolds well for the cancer treatments?

A New Jersey based company. 500 million dollar market cap.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,810
18,823
113
Another non revenue company that is maybe worth watching.

TYME, a biotech company whose main focus is on cancer therapies, more then doubled Wednesday on news of a covid therapy patent, though still pre trials. Is down 30% this morning on new stock issuance.

Kind of surprised these covid therapies stocks still have jumps like this, this late in the game, but conversely I wonder if effectiveness here bolds well for the cancer treatments?

A New Jersey based company. 500 million dollar market cap.
High risk, high reward! Either to the moon or nothing (depending on the trial data).

Also, another Cathie Wood interview. Very interesting POV about the upcoming disruption and destruction of "older" companies not involved in innovation.

 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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I do find it interesting how many stocks we've seen pop, and then the issuance of new shares.

Is there are any data which compares year over year issuances of stock and the money raised?

Have to believe this is a major boon, especially for the small caps.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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XONE up another 7%, up over $40.

Should I have bought some 2 days ago? Uh, ya.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,593
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One more for now.

GM was is going to limit production on certain models because of a shortage in chips. Cars are only going to become more and more chip dependent. By a large factor. As is the rest of the world.

Chip companies have done very well in this run thus far, but is it only the beginning of a much bigger run?
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,593
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High risk, high reward! Either to the moon or nothing (depending on the trial data).

Also, another Cathie Wood interview. Very interesting POV about the upcoming disruption and destruction of "older" companies not involved in innovation.


High dividend in the path of disruptive innovation? If that's not oil I don't know what is. Now I'm in on oil and to steal a phrase from the previous page, I see a dead cat bounce here, but I'm not in that trade long term.

Josh Brown was saying something similar regarding WFC, which cut it's 7% dividend in the summer, and how the likes of PayPal is stealing it's lunch.
 
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Scarletnut

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
5,460
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One more for now.

GM was is going to limit production on certain models because of a shortage in chips. Cars are only going to become more and more chip dependent. By a large factor. As is the rest of the world.

Chip companies have done very well in this run thus far, but is it only the beginning of a much bigger run?
Chips are in short supply currently. EVERYTHING in America 2.0 requires chips. There are thousands of chips in each car and more in EV. All the interconnected appliances in your home, AI, 3D printing, etc require a bunch of chips. Those are the companies that are ramping up. Based on what I've been reading, its clear that the demand for chips is nowhere near its peak.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,593
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Chips are in short supply currently. EVERYTHING in America 2.0 requires chips. There are thousands of chips in each car and more in EV. All the interconnected appliances in your home, AI, 3D printing, etc require a bunch of chips. Those are the companies that are ramping up. Based on what I've been reading, its clear that the demand for chips is nowhere near its peak.
Ya, seems pretty obvious.

I own Marvell and AMD. Was thinking expanding into NXP., INTC, or TXN. Would certainly consider an up and comer if anyone knows of any good ones.
 

Scarletnut

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
5,460
4,141
77
Ya, seems pretty obvious.

I own Marvell and AMD. Was thinking expanding into NXP., INTC, or TXN. Would certainly consider an up and comer if anyone knows of any good ones.
SMH is the way to go, nice chip etf. Put it away for the long term.
 
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Dec 4, 2010
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Not up to speed on lithium batteries. Would solid state batteries be good? :)
Are they partnered up with any particular EV makers?
Solid state battery means there is no liquid electrolyte flowing from anode to cathode. The electrolyte is a solid.
SSBs offers faster charging time, higher energy density, and less degradation over time.
They've been around for decades. Pacemakers use solid state batteries.

Here's the issue. Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is hard....really, really hard.
QuantumScape has a tentitive timeline for 1 GWh of batteries to be produced by 2025. Just as a reference, Tesla will be producing 100 GWh of their own cells and purchasing another 100 GWh from suppliers by 2022.

My thoughts.... solid state batteries are the next hydrogen fuel cells.
 
Dec 4, 2010
5,866
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One more for now.

GM was is going to limit production on certain models because of a shortage in chips. Cars are only going to become more and more chip dependent. By a large factor. As is the rest of the world.

Chip companies have done very well in this run thus far, but is it only the beginning of a much bigger run?
There's a global shortage of semiconductors and the pandemic has made the situation worse.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,593
9,123
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There's a global shortage of semiconductors and the pandemic has made the situation worse.
Just using some logic here, maybe it won't play out like this, but I'd think the shortage, instead of pulling sales fwd, is pushing sales into the future, I'd think that is bullish for the years ahead. For the chips and those sectors which are tied to the chips, at least.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,593
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Here's the issue. Prototypes are easy. Scaling production is hard....really, really hard.
QuantumScape has a tentitive timeline for 1 GWh of batteries to be produced by 2025. Just as a reference, Tesla will be producing 100 GWh of their own cells and purchasing another 100 GWh from suppliers by 2022.

My thoughts.... solid state batteries are the next hydrogen fuel cells.
As a current non revenue company, obviously they have a long term time line, so comparing TSLA, which is well established and the current leader in batteries, to a relative startup, 4 years out, I don't think that is a fair comparison.

The question is, kind of like TSLA,( though again at different points in the timeline), is the current market cap just too far ahead of it's future earnings? Given the apparent huge future growth in the sector they may not be.

As per fuel cells, that segment is doing pretty well as well.
 
Dec 4, 2010
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As a current non revenue company, obviously they have a long term time line, so comparing TSLA, which is well established and the current leader in batteries, to a relative startup, 4 years out, I don't think that is a fair comparison.

The question is, kind of like TSLA,( though again at different points in the timeline), is the current market cap just too far ahead of it's future earnings? Given the apparent huge future growth in the sector they may not be.

As per fuel cells, that segment is doing pretty well as well.
Tesla didn't skyrocket until they proved they could successfully scale production. <--------The most important, most difficult step. I think you're overlooking this again, just like when we were discussing OEMs switching to EVs. Do you know any engineers? Or anyone in manufacturing? If so, I would suggest talking to them about going from prototype to scale.
 

RUDead

All-Conference
Sep 20, 2017
3,655
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Not exactly a glowing recommendation at the current price and totally legal and reported. To all those who were willing to lose money to "stick it to the man" the Koss family says:

THANK YOU!!

www.cnbc.com/2021/02/04/koss-family-executives-cash-in-44-million-in-stock-during-short-squeeze-rally.html

Ha! So a hedge fund made $700 million, Koss family makes a huge haul, as did executives from AMC. I'm sure we will be seeing more stories like this.

If you want to stick it to the man, stopping buying from Amazon, Walmart, etc. and buy local as much as possible.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Tesla didn't skyrocket until they proved they could successfully scale production. <--------The most important, most difficult step. I think you're overlooking this again, just like when we were discussing OEMs switching to EVs. Do you know any engineers? Or anyone in manufacturing? If so, I would suggest talking to them about going from prototype to scale.
I'll concede that QS, even with VW backing, is not GM, and they are working on, in terms of cars, unproven technology.

GM is a lock to be a major player in EV, not so sure on QS.