OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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The forward PE for FB is supposedly 24 which I don’t believe probably 23. They have been exceeding earning expectations almost every earning and they are probably controlling their earnings. In 1-2 years PE will be 20 which is definitely low. FB is presently viewed negatively due to the political landscape but overall won’t affect it in the long run.
Estimated earnings growth is more then 10% yoy into 2024.

Looks solid, but they do need to clean up their image.
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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The post covid world will be a tech/digital world (as per Disney). Plan your investments wisely:


Something about the Disney name makes me think it will do better then most going DTC. Similarly with it's streaming.

Even a big brand like Nike, I guess I've been so trained to go to a shop, or more recently Zappo's, to get my shoes, that I wouldn't think to go direct to Nike to buy stuff.

Disney is such a universe in itself.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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I closed out my TSLA puts this morning. Almost made enough to cover my losses on QS. Just remember, good companies doesn’t always translate to good stock performance in the short run. The market is focus on rates. We are going to trade sideways and trend down until there is another macro event.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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I closed out my TSLA puts this morning. Almost made enough to cover my losses on QS. Just remember, good companies doesn’t always translate to good stock performance in the short run. The market is focus on rates. We are going to trade sideways and trend down until there is another macro event.
Are you hanging in on QS?

There does seem to be pockets of the market which are and will continue to trade upwards. Tech does seem to want to continue on this sideways slightly downward trend.

Which, in a way, is what we want, right?
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,173
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I closed out my TSLA puts this morning. Almost made enough to cover my losses on QS. Just remember, good companies doesn’t always translate to good stock performance in the short run. The market is focus on rates. We are going to trade sideways and trend down until there is another macro event.
This is true. Amazon was destine to transform society, but the stock still got clobbered for a few years after it got too fair ahead of itself. However, if you bought and held since 1999, you probably own a private island now.
:)
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Something about the Disney name makes me think it will do better then most going DTC. Similarly with it's streaming.

Even a big brand like Nike, I guess I've been so trained to go to a shop, or more recently Zappo's, to get my shoes, that I wouldn't think to go direct to Nike to buy stuff.

Disney is such a universe in itself.
+1
We are huge Disney fans and loyal customers.

Another piece from CNBC. Don't believe the hype about traditional companies. They may experience a temp bounce, but post covid will be all about tech:

 

RU Cheese

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Sep 14, 2003
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Good grief you amateur. Price charts don't include payouts and dividends. You need to look at Morningstar's $10k growth chart.

2017 - +87.3%
2018 - +3.5% (this was a down year for the market - beat the S&P and category by 10%)
2019 - +35.6%
2020 - +152.8%

ARKK has crushed the market for 4 years. Any questions?
I don't understand your perspective on Tesla. I thought you were agreeing it was overvalued earlier in the thread, but you are also very bullish on it from a fund perspective. Can you elaborate?

And regarding these returns, you might want to analyze the underlying securities driving this performance. Hint, look up Tesla's annual stock returns in those same years...
 

RU05

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MRVL down post earnings, apparently because guidance suggests the supply shortages are going to squeeze business.



Semiconductor's long term looks to be a great sector to be in, reasonable multiples with excellent growth, but I wonder if in the short term they are going to struggle.

I'm pretty heavy in the sector, and I did buy QCOM pretty low, might need to move on from those that have yet to see a similar dip.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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+1
We are huge Disney fans and loyal customers.

Another piece from CNBC. Don't believe the hype about traditional companies. They may experience a temp bounce, but post covid will be all about tech:

I think the case for the bounce makes a lot of sense, so I don't think I'd say it's hype. I don't disagree that it's not a true long term trend, but I think at this point it still has room.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,062
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Are you hanging in on QS?

There does seem to be pockets of the market which are and will continue to trade upwards. Tech does seem to want to continue on this sideways slightly downward trend.

Which, in a way, is what we want, right?
I don’t trade my longs. I Cathie Wood it (bought more)😀. This is why you have a trading book and an investment book. If you like to trade, you should like volatility.
 
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T2Kplus20

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I don’t trade my longs. I Cathie Wood it (bought more)😀. This is why you have a trading book and an investment book. If you like to trade, you should like volatility.
Nice! You see, we are aligned 97% of the time. Why do we argue so much? :)
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Are any spacs, or recent spac mergers performing at all lately? Or is the entire group falling?
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,173
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I think the case for the bounce makes a lot of sense, so I don't think I'd say it's hype. I don't disagree that it's not a true long term trend, but I think at this point it still has room.
Spoken like a true short-termer! 😁
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,173
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I don't understand your perspective on Tesla. I thought you were agreeing it was overvalued earlier in the thread, but you are also very bullish on it from a fund perspective. Can you elaborate?

And regarding these returns, you might want to analyze the underlying securities driving this performance. Hint, look up Tesla's annual stock returns in those same years...
It was overvalued using traditional means, but with the recent pull-back, we should be good to go! :)
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Let’s see if Powell can clam the markets.
Papa Powell weighs in:

With the economy increasingly back on its feet, some price pressures are likely to emerge, said Powell, but he said they likely will be transitory and look higher because of “base effects,” or the difference measures against last year’s deeply depressed levels just as the Covid-19 crisis began.

Raising interest rates, he added, would require the economy to get back to full employment and inflation to hit a sustainable level above 2%.

He doesn’t expect either to happen this year.

“There’s just a lot of ground to cover before we get to that,” he said. Even if the economy sees “transitory increases in inflation … I expect that we will be patient.′

 
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RU in IM

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Powell is not helping

he was very balanced. Bottom line, stocks were priced to zero rates, so even small movements can do damage. A lesson to all, the bond market is very powerful in both directions.
 
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SBP

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Im looking to grab some ETF's on the low if anyone has any thoughts?
 

RU in IM

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this ^^^^^^. Great post!! Especially the “it’s different this time.“ The last time prices were this stretched compared to the fundamentals was 21 years ago. The “experts“ at the time justified the prices by saying “it‘s the new economy” (I heard this over and over again at the time), and it’s the new way stocks are valued. Then the **** hit the fan an the NASDAQ dropped 80%. Now this time there are not as many stocks with crazy prices (but there are a lot) so the pain most likely won’t be a bad, but you can’t argue that current prices make sense. And for those who think that they will just get out in time, well, when do they know when to get out? People thought that last time, but many bought the dips and ended in worse position. So, for example, if Tesla drops to 700, many that own the stock will think that they are getting a bargain and will buy more, but then the price continues to drop. That’s why they say “it‘s tough to catch a falling knife”.

The above was written on 2/21 when Tesla was at 781, down from over 880. The great “genius” continued to buy, in big big chunks, instead of waiting for some stability. Yeah yeah yeah, I acknowledge that she nailed it for the last few years, and admire her for that. Unfortunately, her investors went up 10 fold during this time, so there are a ton of people that did not benefit on the upside that are getting slammed now. For the ones in the whole, or much of the time, great job!
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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he was very balance. bottom line, stocks were priced to zero rates, so even small movements can do damage. A lesson to all, the bond market is very powerful in both directions.
Powell is not trying to pump anything. However, this rate move is a slap to his face. Market is saying they don’t think he can react quick enough when inflation comes.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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moderate risk
I like VXF for a long-term play. It is an ETF for the S&P competition index (which is the top 3000 US companies MINUS the 500 large caps in the S&P 500). So, you get a nice mix of both mid and small caps. This combo normally outperforms either a pure mid-cap fund (VO) or pure small-cap fund (VB and VTWO) since both have there ups and downs.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,173
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Powell is not trying to pump anything. However, this rate move is a slap to his face. Market is saying they don’t think he can react quick enough when inflation comes.
Look for an announcement on Operation Twist 2.0 coming soon. :)
 

RUDead

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Sep 20, 2017
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Are any spacs, or recent spac mergers performing at all lately? Or is the entire group falling?


 
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