Not with the economy and society reopening! Lots of travel and demand for energy.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
I was helping my dad out for the past 4 hours (seriously). Anything interesting happen with the market while I was out of the loop?
Some people were up, some were down. Some like Tesla, Bitcoin, ARK and SPACs, some don’t. There, you’re all caught up.I was helping my dad out for the past 4 hours (seriously). Anything interesting happen with the market while I was out of the loop?
Yeah AMZN is an anomaly. I have held that stock since 2017 with over 150% return so have to be pretty happy but I feel like it should be much higher considering this pandemic and the cloud business
Just need a stock split and buy some Bitcoin, then to the moon
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As per Morningstar, AMZN is very undervalued:
Fair Market Value = $4,000
Today's close = $3,000 and change
Analyst Note | by Dan Romanoff Updated Feb 02, 2021
Wide-moat Amazon reported strong fourth-quarter results, including material upside to revenue, an EPS blowout, and upside to its revenue outlook for the first quarter. Amazon remains well positioned to prosper from the shift toward e-commerce during the COVID-19 pandemic (with particular strength in groceries and staples) in the near term, but also the secular shift toward e-commerce in the long term. We are particularly impressed by margin performance, which we think is a preview of Amazon’s earnings power as COVID-19 costs roll away and the company grows into its 50% fulfilment capacity expansion from 2020.
Amazon also announced that CEO Jeff Bezos will transition to the role of executive chairman in the third quarter and will be replaced by Andy Jassy, CEO of AWS. We note Mr. Bezos will remain actively involved with the company, and Mr. Jassy has been at the company for 23 years and was a driving force behind the foundation and growth of AWS. We are raising our fair value estimate to $4,000 per share from $3,630 based on the time value of money and fine tuning our model for results and guidance.
Fourth-quarter revenue grew 44% (42% in constant currency) year over year to $125.6 billion, compared with FactSet consensus of $120.0 billion and guidance of $112 billion-$121 billion. Online Stores and Other revenue (which includes Advertising) were well ahead of our expectations, and we remain optimistic about Amazon’s advertising prospects in particular. AWS, Physical Stores, Third Party Seller Services and Subscription Services were fairly close to our estimates. AWS benefited from feature additions and continued traction in enterprise customers and grew 66% year over year.
Operating margin was 5.5%, compared with 4.4% a year ago and our slightly above consensus estimate of 3.8%. This includes $4 billion of COVID-19-related costs, while Amazon also opened additional fulfilment centers during the quarter which limited further margin upside.
@RU-05
Interesting few days. I think the overall market dump has affected the crypto market (instead of just BTC leading the way). RIOT and MARA are looking pretty cheap. I believe RIOT hit $80 when BTC when close to $60k. I feel like crypto stocks will go boom with any significant BTC growth (perhaps $55k+).
Interesting few days. I think the overall market dump has affected the crypto market (instead of just BTC leading the way). RIOT and MARA are looking pretty cheap. I believe RIOT hit $80 when BTC when close to $60k. I feel like crypto stocks will go boom with any significant BTC growth (perhaps $55k+).
You can multi task WFH. Plus, I need a distraction from my job.
+1
WFH is awesome. Major multi-tasking, especially when on long MS Teams meetings. I run a large team in big pharma.
There are pros and cons. Biggest con is the fact that I work a lot more hours now.
I don't work more per say, but my work is more spread out during the day. I was out of the house from 11-3pm today to help my dad with something. However, I just spent 30 mins wrapping up a few work items and having a quick call with my VP. Pros and cons, but more pros from my POV.
I am definitely working longer hours now that I am WFH..my company doesn't think that for their employees though and they want everyone to return to Office as soon as possible. I actually think working longer hours and not commuting is actually much more productive and would be happy todo this moving forward
Yep. There are some days I could use some time alone in transit, but I don't miss having to choose between keeping up with my work and seeing my kid before he goes to sleep.
Added PLTR, TDOC and a few confirmed deal SPACs on the cheap today (NGA, BFT, FRX, THCB)
Good moves. I believe both companies are solid and can disrupt their industries. TWLO is also now below fair market value.
Innovation at FMV. What a concept!
Is FIVERR a buy?Good moves. I believe both companies are solid and can disrupt their industries. TWLO is also now below fair market value.
Innovation at FMV. What a concept!
As per Morningstar analysis, no. The FMV for FIVERR is only $140.70. They dropped down to $218, but still overvalued. The pop to $336 may been due to Motley Fool putting it on their buy now list.
added PLTR near the bottom yesterday, and ended up 8% at the end of the day. I have done very well with it; my first three purchases on 9/30 and 10/1 were between $11 and $9. i would like to hold long term, but I will continue to trade to benefit from its volatility.
PLTR looks like a solid long term investment. All of these discounts make me want to buy a few stocks!
Info on TWLO. It closed at $338, 10% below FMV:
Twilio Delivers Strong Full-Year Results Supported by Segment Acquisition; Raising FVE to $365
Analyst Note | Updated Feb 17, 2021
Narrow-moat Twilio reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results that exceeded both ours and Factset consensus expectations. These superior results continue to support our thesis that Twilio faces a long growth runway ahead, propelled by endeavors to expand its customer engagement products alongside maintaining a developers-first approach. The incorporation of the recent Segment acquisition has provided Twilio improved visibility into a customer’s digital footprint, which coupled with an active political season and an acceleration in enterprise investments in technology led to healthy customer growth; active customers grew 23% year over year to 221,000. We expect Twilio's investments in rounding out its CPaaS capabilities and in its customer-facing products such as Segment and Flex will lead to strong growth in the future. As a result of these factors combined with the time value of money, we are raising our fair value estimate to $365 from $302. With shares up as much as 11% after hours to $459, we recommend investors wait for a margin of safety before investing.
Fourth-quarter revenue grew 65% year over year, year, driven by the acquisition of Segment, as well as an active political cycle. Excluding these two factors, fourth-quarter revenue increased 52% year over year. This growth has been a result of largely broad-based adoption of the firm's offerings as the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated business technology spend and customer interactions have gone increasingly virtual. Dollar-based net expansion was an impressive 139%, indicating the increasing value that Twilio's existing customers continue to derive from the firm's offerings. 2020 revenue increased 55% on a year-over-year basis, driven by broad-based growth in all areas. Twilio’s advantage as a leader in the CPaaS space combined with the mission criticality of its products for businesses has, in our view, contributed to the firm’s impressive performance.
Not that we have never talked dividends on this board, but I'll play along.
Overall my portfolio pays out about 1.6% in dividends.
My top dividend holdings:
DCP at 6.57%
IBM at 5.43%
PRU at 5.19%
SLG at 5.10%
CVX at 4.94%
Think I'm going to add T to the mix, and they would top they list.
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my portfolio
T at 7.02%
KMI at 6.62%
ENB at 7.45%
XOM at 5.71%
PFE at 4.54%
VZ at 4.48%
VZ is my biggest holding of this group. It has not performed well over last three months, but might be stable at this price. So if it goes nowhere, the return is solid compared to market rates. KMI, ENB and XOM have had nice runs over the last 6 months, so I am thinking of where the exit point is.
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You give up a lot of growth for those dividends. Lots of value traps on this list. PFE has been flat over the past year even after saving the world. T never recovered from the corona crash. XOM and energy are popping nicely, but probably not a long term play.
In the next 1-2 years there will be more losers than winners in the tech growth stocks and most of them are still too expensive even after taking a beating recently. The SPAC fad is going to crush a lot of new investors. I think there is safety/growth in some of the Big Tech names that got dragged down with the broader tech sector. Alphabet and FB are still two of my largest holdings. I’ve been looking at SalesForce and eBay recently. Of the spec tech names I am intrigued by PLTR.
I can’t disagree that I am giving up growth, but I do have several growth stocks. I have 42 stocks in my portfolio, so I am very diversified. However, I have stayed away from the high flyers. My time horizon is shorter than yours, and I already hit my 401k retirement target, so no need to take excessive risk. I do have a lot of dry powder, however, and will put some to use if we have a major correction.
Alphabet, FB, and Amazon are all undervalued (as per Morningstar, who is very conservative with FMV. They have TSLA listed at $340). Salesforce, Veeva, PLTR, TWLO, TDOC, Chargepoint are all undervalued or back down to FMV now. Baidu is close to FMV. Square, Roku, and a flew other high-flyers are still overvalued.
I don't think Morningstar does a good job evaluating innovation, so in my mind their FMV for Tesla is way too low. However, it is a great benchmark from a traditional POV. If a high-flyer pulls back to MS' FMV, may be a big green light to buy.
No need to get involved with SPACs. Plenty of great options on the table now.
Sounds perfect for your time horizon. Still, may be nice to do some bargain shopping now!
If you bought XOM last April you got paid a 10% dividend while the stock appreciated 90%. While there is no way it will appreciate 90% over the next 12 months you are still making a 10% return on your original investment.
I don't disagree, but I think there are times when growth runs so hot while value does nothing that it's smart to rotate from growth to value, at least for a time being. There is a lot of sentiment along those lines currently. If nothing else you are not going to get dragged down too dramatically by a broad market selloff, and you are(most likely) getting that dividend no matter what.
You note T and it is still down significantly from pre covid levels. But as @RUAldo has noted, if their HBO streaming can get a foot hold, and it appears it is gaining traction, then it could pop, as the market just love streaming plays. Selling Directv, and admittedly they did at a significant loss, probably pays off longer term as well.
Now many people bought in April, so the luck of timing has passed. We bought XLE (energy ETF with a ton of Exxon and Chervon) in late 2020, so we caught some of the up.
I'll hang on to XLE for a while longer, but with so many undervalued tech and innovative companies, it's hard to go too much into traditional value. Our value play is mostly focused on small cap value, which historically outperforms large cap value.
As for T directly, do you really see HBO Max competing with the big boys (Netflix, Disney+, and Prime)? Not all streaming services will succeed.