You should read up on how TSLA got into the solar business.The model looks great! And very conservative since it doesn't include TSLA's utility energy storage or solar business.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Would the United States allow Nio or Xpeng vehicles that had video recording tech on their military bases?
Frankly, I'm surprised this wasn't already a rule.
I believe it involved some lead pipes, and 2 guys named Rocco and Knuckles
You don't think China has aspirations to get their EVs on American roads?
Business will trump politics. This is a non issue.
Solar and/or wind + battery storage is cheaper than natural gas TODAY. What natural gas did to coal, solar/wind/batteries will do to all other energy generation.The model looks great! And very conservative since it doesn't include TSLA's utility energy storage or solar business.
Energy is going to become decentralized, with homeowners and local municipalities becoming their own utility. Software will then be used to buy/sell/move energy. This will reduce costs and insure the reliability of the grid.
Volvo is owned by Geely Automotive - a Chinese auto manufacturer. Last time I checked the US has not placed any restrictions on Volvo/Geely. Volvos have cameras and data analytics modules and collect driver data.
No surprise that CW used the Monte Carlo simulation to arrive at her absurd number. “Monte Carlo simulations are named after the popular gambling destination in Monaco, since chance and random outcomes are central to the modeling technique, much as they are to games like roulette, dice, and slot machines.” I know CW has made a lot of people a lot of money but she’s a clown. It’s no coincidence she releases her new target right when China pisses on Musk/Tesla with the ban.
That’s a bit harsh. She did work as a fund manager before ARK. She is just a victim of her own success. There is always mean reversion. Before the ARK, there was Munder NetNet fund and Janus tech/high growth fund. Directional funds are high beta. Investors need to do their diligence.
Not bitter at all. I crushed it during the 2020 boom. Could I have made more - of course. That goes without saying at any point during the last 15 years. Like I’ve said before, my biggest regret is I was still sitting on too much cash in April/May although I was buying like a madman on the drop. It comes down to this - I’m a straight shooter in life and don’t have tolerance for BS. If CW wants to rack up gains that’s great but I’d rather her do it while keeping her mouth shut. That goes for all of the fund managers including the short players that release bogus reports to drive down stocks.
I get the sense you are a novice in this game and think 2020 is a normal investing year. Which is why you cheer every time Tesla or ARKK makes a run. We haven’t seen a market this whacky since the dotcom bubble. Nothing make sense other than it continues to go up and everyone should be playing the long game. My investing approach is simple - I don’t buy junk simply because it goes up. I’ve held Google since it was around $150. FB at $40. For me, a spec play was Camping World at $4 and I made a fortune from it. Sesen Bio under $1 was the steal of the century. I’d buy Tesla tomorrow if the PE made sense. Come Talk to me in another 15 years.
Cathie Wood would do well to invest capital and ratchet back the public pronouncements and excessive disclosure. The more I learn about her publicity, the more pause I have for her future performance. For example, why on earth does she post videos discussing macro issues? Why does she waste her time producing such content? And if you are going to post a “bull” and “bear” case of a stock, at least label the columns correctly.
He is a novice who is mostly talk; I’m growing very tired of his cheerleading. He mentioned the other day that he got his average cost of AARK down to $122 a share as he said he bought on the recent dip. I was shocked as the way he went on and on about his girl Cathie for weeks, I figured he had it when the price was in the $40’s early last year. On this fund he missed BIG and got in WAY late. On a fund that was up 160% last year, he is at even.
Perhaps the funniest thing is that I clicked on the Ark link and got a pop-up ad to buy “Ark Swag”. Now I’ve seen everything - CW is peddling branded t-shirts and swag?!?! Is that a joke?
Funny to watch the Three Little Bears chat among themselves. Good times!
But do you see how most of the real stock/investment talk has been diminished in this thread recently? Once this rotation ends and you guys fade away, it will be nice to get back to our normal conversation.
But do you see how most of the real stock/investment talk has been diminished in this thread recently? Once this rotation ends and you guys fade away, it will be nice to get back to our normal conversation.
T2K only knows how to buy stock funds in his 401k and to hold it for the long term which is fine. When he talks about putting more money in the market, it’s his 401k contribution.
Last edited:
The talk has diminished because this thread has turned into Rivals’ version of Reddit with retail rookies pushing momentum plays and posting videos of CW and “Guy the crypto guy”. TSLA? ARKK? BTC? They aren’t “investments” at these levels especially with interest rates rising. I never bought a stock simply because someone told me it would go up. I actually care about fundamentals. Sure, I’ve missed some lay ups. But I’m guided by FOLM and not FOMO because this is a 50+ year game I intend to win.
As right as you are there’s always a middle. I made plays the last few months knowing they made no actual sense (amc, sndl, etc). The money they made me pays no different than a sound investment. You can play momentum stocks and not be a “wsb bro.” To leave them alone is ok, but playing what is in front of you isn’t a bad idea
THETA = will make your rich.
Its 15 on the chart now going to 1K....all the big boys are in it.
Cant buy it in the US...ways around that.
Its 15 on the chart now going to 1K....all the big boys are in it.
Cant buy it in the US...ways around that.
Lol. I’m not a bear. I’m an investor that has a balanced portfolio in and out of my 401k. I currently own 42 individual stocks, and funds that are loosely tied the the S&P and Midcap indexes. I also invest in a stable value fund, and that balance is growing due to my age and the high valuations. I just don’t go on here and cheerlead about about what a bargain AARK, TESLA and Bitcoin are. I rebalance my stock portfolio based on fundamentals, which means that when metrics get well beyond historical averages (e.g. P/E ratios), I lighten my ownership. I own a few speculative stocks (e.g. PLTR that I got in at $10, and since lightened my ownership) and a few others that a priced high, but have growth potential (e.g. PYPL with a cost basis of $79 a share, but took some gains because of the strong performance). The bulk of my stocks are very solid or consistent performers that are less volatile, pay a decent dividend and will fare better in a down market. My recent posts on this site are the result of what I believe to be excessively high priced stocks. And why do I post my concerns? Because I have seen some ugly investment periods over the last 30+ years of investing that have ruined some good portfolios. Does that make me a bear? NO!! It means I am a sound investor that makes decisions that will result in solid portfolio growth over the long term. It might keep me from being mega rich, but will enable me to meet my investment goals.
And, BTW, it’s funny that you consider your posts/conversations “normal”.
Last edited:
Totally agree - there’s nothing wrong with playing momentum stocks and taking risks. My main issue is that certain people act like all of these speculative stocks are a steal at the current inflated prices and seem to think the market only goes up. They don’t understand (or ignore) the factors driving this market. If I wasn’t always long the market and numb to market swings I would be deeply concerned. I’ve taken emotion out of the investing equation and focus on opportunities and risk using fundamentals for my analysis. And clearly fundamentals don’t matter right now. Just like in 2006 when I would pull up to an open house and the agent would tell me they received 5 offers over asking in the first hour. My wife and I would walk away disappointed but knew something was wrong. Then, my buddy (who was always the clown of the group) bragged how he owned 3 houses as “investments” and they already doubled in value. We all know what happened to the housing market and financial collapse. It happened right before our eyes and there were cheerleaders left and right alway trying to justify the insane housing prices. 2006-2008 is probably the main reason I don’t trust cryptocurrency. Although at least in the case of the housing crisis there was a physical asset and not a NFT of a digital house that is selling for millions over asking.
You are mistaken. There is very little real investment or stock talk in this thread. It is 90% about bitcoin and speculative plays. The only person who comes with knowledge on the long side of his investment is belly. Now, I don’t agree with his view on TSLA valuation, but I do respect that he has more than a superficial understanding of the business, I’m surprised at your posts in this thread, since bitcoin, crypto and ARK are less than 1% of your portfolio.
You have to take it as a complement when T2K call you a bear.
You guys or gals are too funny. It’s an investment thread on a football msg board. The only reason it exists is due to WFH or lockdown. Don’t take it too seriously. Btw, our men’s hoops team have a big game tonight.
Belly does a great job with TSLA and his knowledge. He runs circles around the 3 LBs, who bring nothing of substance and just knee jerk their hate for Elon and CW.
I have made many posts about my allocations and funds. Not sure what else to do, but everyone wants to talk about cryptos, for pro or con. My crypto portfolio, which remain under 1% of our total assets (not including growth) is a blast. Love to learn something new and talk about it. It truly is a remarkable concept. Digital stored value and DeFi are not going away. Plenty of junk out there, but there is tons of info available to educate yourself.
Happy to chat about other topics, please lead the way if you are interested. I've been focusing a lot of time on value tech (using our recent bonuses). Lots of big names undervalued and some high flyers have pulled back to FMV using traditional metrics. Lots of great opportunities.
There is no such thing as “value tech” at the moment according to any financial metric other than perhaps using a Monte Carlo simulation. If tech and BTC pops its 100% based on WSB and the retail crew putting their stimulus money to work. Which I’m fine with because my portfolio continues to grow.Belly does a great job with TSLA and his knowledge. He runs circles around the 3 LBs, who bring nothing of substance and just knee jerk their hate for Elon and CW.
I have made many posts about my allocations and funds. Not sure what else to do, but everyone wants to talk about cryptos, for pro or con. My crypto portfolio, which remain under 1% of our total assets (not including growth) is a blast. Love to learn something new and talk about it. It truly is a remarkable concept. Digital stored value and DeFi are not going away. Plenty of junk out there, but there is tons of info available to educate yourself.
Happy to chat about other topics, please lead the way if you are interested. I've been focusing a lot of time on value tech (using our recent bonuses). Lots of big names undervalued and some high flyers have pulled back to FMV using traditional metrics. Lots of great opportunities.
You don't see any value in semiconductors?
INTC is at 12.9x p/e.
SWKS is currently 27x p/e, but expecting 40% earnings growth yoy.
It is interesting that you bring up INTC as a value play. If people want to have a discussion away from the Bitcoin, penny stocks, TSLA, etc then this is a good topic. Will INTC become a MSFT or GE/IBM under their new management? GE and IBM have been huge disappointments in the past 5 years. MSFT before Nadella took over was floundering and in danger of becoming irrelevant. What does INTC have to do be become a market leader? I would love to hear insights.
+1
Lots of semi's undervalued. Plenty of big name tech is undervalued and lots of high flyers are back to FMV or a little under. However, the sector that is most undervalued is health sciences (pharma, biotech, and HC support companies).
I think a discussion regarding INTC points to how investing even in an established business with consistent profits has a level of speculation to it.
The hope here is the new CEO, who is a tech guy and that is seen as a good start, gets them back on track after years of giving up market share.
So like IBM, the hope is it's a turnaround story, but a turnaround story of a company that is still very profitable, and pays a decent dividend.
Am I going to get into the weeds of what this CEO needs to do, whether we are talking in regards to improving their chips, or their profit margins? No. Even the best analysts will only be able to give vague predictions regarding those things. I'm going to allocate a certain % of my portfolio and cross my fingers. Best case they make a GE like move, and I'm up 70%(or whatever I'm at right now) worst case I collect a couple bucks in dividends and I sell in 3, 6 or 12 months.
I have been going heavier and heavier in that direction with my portfolio recently. More towards that value, cyclical play that has done very well in recent months. It won't last forever, I'm just hoping it lasts a fair amount longer.
Last edited:
I don’t know what to make of INTC especially after it made a 30% run. My gut tells me the INTC train already left the station but, admittedly, I haven’t done much research.
I think they were below 9x trailing p/e before the run, so by that metric they went from stupid cheap to just very cheap.
But unlike a SWKS, which has a 27x trailing p/e, but is expecting significant earnings increase, INTC is expecting decreasing earnings.
So the question is can the new CEO turn it around? It really is a speculation play at this point. Granted one that pays a solid dividend.
But I think you are right given the run(and I think it is better then 30%) I think there is potential downside here.
I’m not sure either; already experienced a good pop (43%) since late October. I believe the most recent move is based on hopes that new leadership will turn the company around. I went in last August after a major correction and picked up some in January when the priced had a nice drop. At this point I am holding (not buying more), as it has a very low P/E ratio and pays a dividend, albeit low.
Last edited: