OT: Stock and Investment Thread

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,189
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I think a discussion regarding INTC points to how investing even in an established business with consistent profits has a level of speculation to it.

The hope here is the new CEO, who is a tech guy and that is seen as a good start, gets them back on track after years of giving up market share.

So like IBM, the hope is it's a turnaround story, but a turnaround story of a company that is still very profitable, and pays a decent dividend.

Am I going to get into the weeds of what this CEO needs to do, whether we are talking in regards to improving their chips, or their profit margins? No. Even the best analysts will only be able to give vague predictions regarding those things. I'm going to allocate a certain % of my portfolio and cross my fingers. Best case they make a GE like move, and I'm up 70%(or whatever I'm at right now) worst case I collect a couple bucks in dividends and I sell in 3, 6 or 12 months.

I have been going heavier and heavier in that direction with my portfolio recently. More towards that value, cyclical play that has done very well in recent months. It won't last forever, I'm just hoping it lasts a fair amount longer.
Looks like Intel is moving in right direction, but my semi play is SOXX. Don't know enough to pick winners and losers. Intel is the largest holding of SOXX, so I hope it keeps moving in the right direction.

Morningstar FMV is $65, so it is just about at that level. The big risk seems to be not keeping their production tech up to the standards of their main competitors - AMD and NVDA.
 

Frida's Boss

All-American
Oct 10, 2005
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Looks like Intel is moving in right direction, but my semi play is SOXX. Don't know enough to pick winners and losers. Intel is the largest holding of SOXX, so I hope it keeps moving in the right direction.

Morningstar FMV is $65, so it is just about at that level. The big risk seems to be not keeping their production tech up to the standards of their main competitors - AMD and NVDA.

Intel is facing potential encroachment on what had been a dominant stranglehold on its market from well capitalized and funded competition. And it trades at a TEV multiple north of 20x. Compare that to MSFT in 2009, which did face the move from PC to mobile but completely owns the PC market. It traded at a 5x TEV multiple. Lots can go wrong when you buy at that valuation, and you’re still going to come out ok. Risk reward far tilted towards making lots of money, and thats what happened. Not as much margin of error at 21x.
 
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RU in IM

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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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It’s very clear; it’s due to a lack of supply. Rates will eventually hurt, but the market remains hot with multiple buyers for most homes. There is a ton of demand that needs to be worked through before the bubble.

Signed: Little Bear #3
Doesn't sound like a bubble, just good old supply and demand dynamics.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
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Does a bubble make a sound? I think only when it pops.
Once again, how is it a bubble? Rates are low, prices go up. Supply/demand is favoring demand, so prices go up. When these change, price will go down. Economics 101.

Do you see bubbles everywhere? You are neck and neck with Aldo for the LB #1 position. IM is locked into the #3 position. :)
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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I see why T
Once again, how is it a bubble? Rates are low, prices go up. Supply/demand is favoring demand, so prices go up. When these change, price will go down. Economics 101.

Do you see bubbles everywhere? You are neck and neck with Aldo for the LB #1 position. IM is locked into the #3 position. :)
Aldo is going down. I’m #1. Did you see the article about the TSLA whistle blower about solar fire? I guess that’s why CW didn’t include it in her valuation.
 

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
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There could be another factor in play. Starting a year ago demand was inflated by the exodus out of cities due to Covid and riots. That was a black swan event of limited duration. It would account for the limited supply (anyone who was thinking of selling has now sold) currently but that might be lower demand in the near term. Notice the NYS Dept. of Finance head today came out and said tax hikes are not needed. They're obviously worried about a second wave.
 

RUAldo

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Aldo is going down. I’m #1. Did you see the article about the TSLA whistle blower about solar fire? I guess that’s why CW didn’t include it in her valuation.
I’m a changed man/bear. Just ran a Monte Carlo simulation of my own and CW is clueless with her measly $3,000 prediction - by my calculations Tesla is going to hit $25,000 p/sh by 2029. And, everybody knows the solar panels are supposed to catch on fire because the geothermal energy created by the burning houses mean more regulatory credits for Tesla.
 

RUAldo

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Once again, how is it a bubble? Rates are low, prices go up. Supply/demand is favoring demand, so prices go up. When these change, price will go down. Economics 101.

Do you see bubbles everywhere? You are neck and neck with Aldo for the LB #1 position. IM is locked into the #3 position. :)
The housing market is just fine - I hit a dozen virtual open houses over the weekend and made an offer on a new coded digital NFT house. Now, I just need to line-up a coder to add the NFT ocean in the backyard. Tangible stuff is so 2020.
 

rurahrah000

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I’m a changed man/bear. Just ran a Monte Carlo simulation of my own and CW is clueless with her measly $3,000 prediction - by my calculations Tesla is going to hit $25,000 p/sh by 2029. And, everybody knows the solar panels are supposed to catch on fire because the geothermal energy created by the burning houses mean more regulatory credits for Tesla.

From your lips to God's ears. If TSLA hits $25,000 then I will reach the three comma club for sure.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,189
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I see why T

Aldo is going down. I’m #1. Did you see the article about the TSLA whistle blower about solar fire? I guess that’s why CW didn’t include it in her valuation.
Sorry, you can't compete with his irrational and emotional posts (see above)! LOL.
 

RUAldo

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mdk02

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Aug 18, 2011
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Nobody - and I mean nobody - predicted the market would skyrocket after the plunge. I think the key lessons are to (1) always stay long the market and (2) keep some cash available to buy during times of crisis.

And if you used stop losses during the plunge you had cash available.
 

RU in IM

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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Nobody - and I mean nobody - predicted the market would skyrocket after the plunge. I think the key lessons are to (1) always stay long the market and (2) keep some cash available to buy during times of crisis.
I did. From the very beginning. It was an artificial crash due to hysteria cause by a pandemic and nothing financial. Tons of posts to prove this if you want to look them up.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
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My techs are coming back strong. FB almost back to old high from 255 to 296, AMZN 3050 to 3166 should get to 3300 in 2 weeks, and ADBE 420 to 465 should get to 500. Earning season in 2-3 weeks. They might not go to their old highs but I normally sell before that time.
 
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T2Kplus20

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My techs are coming back strong. FB almost back to old high from 255 to 296, AMZN 3050 to 3166 should get to 3300 in 2 weeks, and ADBE 420 to 465 should get to 500. Earning season in 2-3 weeks. They might not go to their old highs but I normally sell before that time.
FB, GOOGL, AMZN, and MSFT are all undervalued (as per Morningstar). AAPL is overvalued based on their metrics. No-brainers to buy! Man up and hold.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
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FB, GOOGL, AMZN, and MSFT are all undervalued (as per Morningstar). AAPL is overvalued based on their metrics. No-brainers to buy! Man up and hold.
Well, I got a lot more tech stocks but I brought them near their lows. You just can’t expect them to reach the old highs due to the interest rates.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Well, I got a lot more tech stocks but I brought them near their lows. You just can’t expect them to reach the old highs due to the interest rates.
Buying at the recent lows are good long-term investments. CRM, TDOC, TWLO, CRWD are also below FMV based on revenue, profit, and growth metrics. Patience will really pay off this time.
 

RUAldo

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I did. From the very beginning. It was an artificial crash due to hysteria cause by a pandemic and nothing financial. Tons of posts to prove this if you want to look them up.
Are you nuts? Artificial crash? This was no algorithm induced flash crash. There isn’t a single person on the planet that predicted during the COVID induced session lows and mass lockdown hysteria that the market would not only regain previous levels but skyrocket to all-time highs in 2020, especially when unemployment spiked. Everyone knew there would be a general recovery - but that it would take years. It wasn’t until the Fed stepped in with stimulus, rates dropped, and retail traders started viewing the market as Vegas, that the market became a juggernaut. Everyone long the market knew it would recover- but the question was when.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
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If autonomy hits and the robotaxi network takes off......
FYI - unimpressive "Power Day" for VW:

Volkswagen Power Day Suggests the Right Strategy at the Wrong Speed
Sam-KorusBy Sam Korus | @skorusARK
Analyst
This week, Volkswagen held its Power Day, unveiling plans for battery production and charging infrastructure through 2030 in a way that emulated Tesla's Battery Day last September. High-level takeaways included VW’s plans to produce 240 GWh of batteries, reduce battery costs by roughly 50%, and add 18,000 fast-charging points.

What the press release did not convey, the live presentation captured. During the antithesis of an early Steve Jobs presentation, dozens of presenters, each with 30 seconds, highlighted how their team plans to contribute to Volkswagen’s EV transition strategy.

In ARK’s view, companies with 'old world DNA' are unlikely to transition quickly enough to dominate the new world. Often the difference between old and new world DNA are plans for linear as opposed to exponential growth trajectories. Tesla's stated goal for 2030 is three terawatt-hours of annual production, 12.5 times more than VW's 240 gigawatt-hours. In an exponential world, companies thinking linearly could be left behind.
 

RUAldo

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FYI - unimpressive "Power Day" for VW:

Volkswagen Power Day Suggests the Right Strategy at the Wrong Speed
Sam-KorusBy Sam Korus | @skorusARK
Analyst
This week, Volkswagen held its Power Day, unveiling plans for battery production and charging infrastructure through 2030 in a way that emulated Tesla's Battery Day last September. High-level takeaways included VW’s plans to produce 240 GWh of batteries, reduce battery costs by roughly 50%, and add 18,000 fast-charging points.

What the press release did not convey, the live presentation captured. During the antithesis of an early Steve Jobs presentation, dozens of presenters, each with 30 seconds, highlighted how their team plans to contribute to Volkswagen’s EV transition strategy.

In ARK’s view, companies with 'old world DNA' are unlikely to transition quickly enough to dominate the new world. Often the difference between old and new world DNA are plans for linear as opposed to exponential growth trajectories. Tesla's stated goal for 2030 is three terawatt-hours of annual production, 12.5 times more than VW's 240 gigawatt-hours. In an exponential world, companies thinking linearly could be left behind.
This article is pure nonsense and lost all credibility with “In Ark’s view”. Do you think CW would give VW an ounce of credit when Tesla is ARKK’s largest holding by a mile? Just Google “Volkswagen” and count the positive VW EV articles in the past few days alone.
 
Dec 4, 2010
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FYI - unimpressive "Power Day" for VW:

Volkswagen Power Day Suggests the Right Strategy at the Wrong Speed
Sam-KorusBy Sam Korus | @skorusARK
Analyst
This week, Volkswagen held its Power Day, unveiling plans for battery production and charging infrastructure through 2030 in a way that emulated Tesla's Battery Day last September. High-level takeaways included VW’s plans to produce 240 GWh of batteries, reduce battery costs by roughly 50%, and add 18,000 fast-charging points.

What the press release did not convey, the live presentation captured. During the antithesis of an early Steve Jobs presentation, dozens of presenters, each with 30 seconds, highlighted how their team plans to contribute to Volkswagen’s EV transition strategy.

In ARK’s view, companies with 'old world DNA' are unlikely to transition quickly enough to dominate the new world. Often the difference between old and new world DNA are plans for linear as opposed to exponential growth trajectories. Tesla's stated goal for 2030 is three terawatt-hours of annual production, 12.5 times more than VW's 240 gigawatt-hours. In an exponential world, companies thinking linearly could be left behind.
Yep, we're going to catch Tesla by going slower than Tesla.

Here's another one:
Ian Robertson - Head of Sales at BMW. 5 years ago, Mr. Robertson had this to say: "I think that Musk is moving from being a startup to a full blown company, and he's beginning to understand some of the challenges that brings. Those are the sort of challenges that we don't have. We are able to productionize things and move quickly in that regard."

5 years after the model 3 came out, BMW has released a car that is way less efficient, and way more expensive.
BMW iX: 100 kWh battery pack w/ 300 mi range.
Model 3: 82 kWh batter pack w/ 350 mi range.

Price: BMW iX: Starting in the mid $80K
Model 3: $47K

I'll let my friends chew on that.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,189
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Yep, we're going to catch Tesla by going slower than Tesla.

Here's another one:
Ian Robertson - Head of Sales at BMW. 5 years ago, Mr. Robertson had this to say: "I think that Musk is moving from being a startup to a full blown company, and he's beginning to understand some of the challenges that brings. Those are the sort of challenges that we don't have. We are able to productionize things and move quickly in that regard."

5 years after the model 3 came out, BMW has released a car that is way less efficient, and way more expensive.
BMW iX: 100 kWh battery pack w/ 300 mi range.
Model 3: 82 kWh batter pack w/ 350 mi range.

Price: BMW iX: Starting in the mid $80K
Model 3: $47K

I'll let my friends chew on that.
+1
Mic drop post! 👍
 
Dec 4, 2010
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This article is pure nonsense and lost all credibility with “In Ark’s view”. Do you think CW would give VW an ounce of credit when Tesla is ARKK’s largest holding by a mile? Just Google “Volkswagen” and count the positive VW EV articles in the past few days alone.
I'll give VW several ounces of credit. They're making an effort and I hope they succeed. They're just not catching Tesla.
Maybe you're just bad at math. EVs need batteries, right? Tesla is going to produce 12X the number of batteries that VW plans on producing. You take it from here........
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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Yep, we're going to catch Tesla by going slower than Tesla.

Here's another one:
Ian Robertson - Head of Sales at BMW. 5 years ago, Mr. Robertson had this to say: "I think that Musk is moving from being a startup to a full blown company, and he's beginning to understand some of the challenges that brings. Those are the sort of challenges that we don't have. We are able to productionize things and move quickly in that regard."

5 years after the model 3 came out, BMW has released a car that is way less efficient, and way more expensive.
BMW iX: 100 kWh battery pack w/ 300 mi range.
Model 3: 82 kWh batter pack w/ 350 mi range.

Price: BMW iX: Starting in the mid $80K
Model 3: $47K

I'll let my friends chew on that.
so BMW in 5 yrs couldn't do TSLA did in 17 years. Talk about thinking linear.
 

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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I'll give VW several ounces of credit. They're making an effort and I hope they succeed. They're just not catching Tesla.
Maybe you're just bad at math. EVs need batteries, right? Tesla is going to produce 12X the number of batteries that VW plans on producing. You take it from here........
The fundamental flaw in your logic is that you assume everyone wants a Tesla. Consumers will soon have more choices than ever. Tesla could produce 12X the number of batteries but that doesn’t mean Tesla will sell 12X the number of vehicles. Consumer choice alone based on factors such as pricing, individual preferences, brand loyalty, etc. will drive competition regardless of whether Tesla’s technology is light-years ahead. Next time you are on the highway take a look around and count the number of auto manufacturers, vehicle classes, colors, styles, etc. Cars are not widgets. Just look at the auto brand loyalty studies and you’ll be amazed at how resistant consumers are to change. The point is that it’s not simply a race against Tesla for EV technology superiority.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,078
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looks like LB club added a few members today. Powell and Yellen thinks valuation is high. Aldo is really locking down the #1 spot today. Hard for me to compete. GME is reporting after the bell. Not sure if it even matters. Maybe there just pics pics of rockets and ice cream cones.
 
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