OT: Stock and Investment Thread

Blitz8RU

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Jan 24, 2012
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I like more beta in my stock portfolio and I still need someone on the fixed income side.

more beta?

It doesn't get more beta than the S&P.

Higher beta than 1 (S&P) just means it's more anti-correlated to the S&P.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
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Just to be clear, when you move the $6,000 or $7,000 (above age 50) from traditional IRA to Roth via backdoor, you don't have to pay tax (income)?
If you are converting an existing traditional IRA to a Roth I believe there is a tax consequence. For me, taxes were never an issue because I didn’t have an existing traditional IRA. I’ve been doing the backdoor Roth since Day 1. I contribute $6K in after-tax money to a rollover IRA. Then I convert the $6K from the rollover IRA to the Roth IRA.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
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If you are converting an existing traditional IRA to a Roth I believe there is a tax consequence. For me, taxes were never an issue because I didn’t have an existing traditional IRA. I’ve been doing the backdoor Roth since Day 1. I contribute $6K in after-tax money to a rollover IRA. Then I convert the $6K from the rollover IRA to the Roth IRA.
It’s the pro-rata rule and the existence of traditional IRAs that could trigger a tax event:

“There are no income or contribution limits — that is, anyone can convert any amount of money from a traditional to a Roth IRA. But you risk a hefty tax bill on the rollover if you have pretax money — either contributions you’ve deducted or investment earnings — sitting in any traditional IRAs, thanks to the IRS’ pro-rata rule.”
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,196
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Just to be clear, when you move the $6,000 or $7,000 (above age 50) from traditional IRA to Roth via backdoor, you don't have to pay tax (income)?
Normally, when you convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA you have be pay taxes on the entire amount of money if you deducted the original contribution OR just on the earnings if you didn't deduct the original contribution.

However, if you are specifically doing a backdoor Roth you essentially do the paperwork all at the same time. This means, you don't deduct anything (even if allowed by income level) nor have you earned any return yet. As such, you don't pay any taxes whatsoever.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,196
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Chargepoint is free and has the biggest market share by a wide margin. I linked an article about how different revenue models from theses charging companies. Do your homework because it’s not apples to apples. I still like the battery play instead.
CP is a better option than BLNK, but still a lot of competition and unanswered questions. Also, seems to be a low margin business.
 
Dec 4, 2010
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Chargepoint is free and has the biggest market share by a wide margin. I linked an article about how different revenue models from theses charging companies. Do your homework because it’s not apples to apples. I still like the battery play instead.
CP is not free. It's true the offer some free level 2 charging. Level 3 charging (fast charging) is never free.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,082
12,247
82
You said gas is cheaper than EV charging. Please explain
Read the article. These 3rd party charging companies make money on charging and it’s more than gas if you want a full charge. Just to be clear, I’m not saying charging costs more than gas. But where you charge matters. Most drivers charge at home which is much much cheaper than gas. But if you get caught needing a charge from one of these vendors, get ready to pay.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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MU is currently trading at 33x P/E

But If we believe the e-trade on estimates are accurate, they are trading at 10x 2022 earnings.

Just flipping through some semi plays, and they have the best price to expected growth that I have seen thus far.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Again wondering about the estimates of future earnings and revs. The outlook for the steel industry shows a mega pop in 2021, but then a drop in 2022. I wonder what goes into those estimates. A lot of the optimism regarding steel and other materials is the possible infrastructure deal, I'm assuming the current estimates don't include that? I also wonder what role inflation plays in those estimates. We are certainly seeing big jumps in steel prices, and from my anecdotal perspective, working retail, and seeing the difficulty of getting metal products, I'd be pretty surprised if supply was able to catch up to that demand to the point where rev's would be decreasing as early as 2022.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,196
19,205
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MU is currently trading at 33x P/E

But If we believe the e-trade on estimates are accurate, they are trading at 10x 2022 earnings.

Just flipping through some semi plays, and they have the best price to expected growth that I have seen thus far.
Do you also use the CNN Money forecasts? They seems similar to what is on E-Trade, but some differences from time to time:

 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,196
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Again wondering about the estimates of future earnings and revs. The outlook for the steel industry shows a mega pop in 2021, but then a drop in 2022. I wonder what goes into those estimates. A lot of the optimism regarding steel and other materials is the possible infrastructure deal, I'm assuming the current estimates don't include that? I also wonder what role inflation plays in those estimates. We are certainly seeing big jumps in steel prices, and from my anecdotal perspective, working retail, and seeing the difficulty of getting metal products, I'd be pretty surprised if supply was able to catch up to that demand to the point where rev's would be decreasing as early as 2022.
Those type of plays are high risk, high reward. The whims of DC change very quickly. Will we get an enormous infrastructure package? Maybe. Will it be smaller than advertised? Maybe. Will the expectations match what the street is hoping for? No idea. This is like a marijuana or clean energy play. I'm nervous about investing in areas so impacted by politics.
 
Dec 4, 2010
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Those type of plays are high risk, high reward. The whims of DC change very quickly. Will we get an enormous infrastructure package? Maybe. Will it be smaller than advertised? Maybe. Will the expectations match what the street is hoping for? No idea. This is like a marijuana or clean energy play. I'm nervous about investing in areas so impacted by politics.
My biggest concern when it comes to the future of Tesla..... Government
 
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RUDead

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Sep 20, 2017
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My biggest concern when it comes to the future of Tesla..... Government

Government risk is the hardest thing to deal with when investing and agree should be avoided when possible. Unfortunately, today almost everything has significant government risk. They will be picking the winners and losers going forward.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,196
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Statistics, damn statistics and lies.

Or something like that.

ARK has far outperformed the QQQ.

Dude does a pretty good 180 in his conclusion as well, which I do agree with, CW will need to continue to provide results, as anyone does.
Far, far, far outpaced the QQQ for 4 years. Can the ARK crew keep it up? Let's see what happens. Having some innovation juice in your portfolio is a good thing.
 

RUDead

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Sep 20, 2017
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Statistics, damn statistics and lies.

Or something like that.

ARK has far outperformed the QQQ.

Dude does a pretty good 180 in his conclusion as well, which I do agree with, CW will need to continue to provide results, as anyone does.

Outperformed on a absolute basis, but he is talking about risk adjusted returns. I don't think Sharpe ratio is perfect but its a good stat to compare this fund and the QQQ. ARK has done an excellent job of being in the right sectors and industries and they deserve credit for that. Especially since that is the most important investment decision you can make. But this does show that their is no alpha in her stock picking, its just leveraged beta.

The interesting thing is to look at the chart and you can see where the inflows pushed their names up and then it reverted back to the mean.
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
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interesting that no one posted that Ray Dalio thinks that there is a high prob that BTC could be outlawed by the gov.
 

RU in IM

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Nov 3, 2011
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interesting that no one posted that Ray Dalio thinks that there is a high prob that BTC could be outlawed by the gov.

not sure it will be outlawed, but I could see very stringent oversight of crypto, which would include areas such as taxation and money laundering. Banks spend a TON of money monitoring traditional banking transactions. Monitoring crypto could be more challenging and costly. I think if anything derails crypto currency, it will be the outcry to address the enormous amount of energy that is used to keep it functioning. It doesn’t fit in to the going “green” movement, and from what I read, the higher the value, the greater amount of energy that is used.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,196
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interesting that no one posted that Ray Dalio thinks that there is a high prob that BTC could be outlawed by the gov.
Kind of hard to "outlaw" something with no centralization. Dalio needs to read up on the topic.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,196
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not sure it will be outlawed, but I could see very stringent oversight of crypto, which would include areas such as taxation and money laundering. Banks spend a TON of money monitoring traditional banking transaction. Monitoring crypto could be more challenging and costly. I think if anything derails crypto currency, it will be the outcry to address the enormous amount of energy that is used to keep it functioning. It doesn’t fit in to the going “green” movement, and from what I read, the higher the value, the greater amount of energy that is used.
Applying money laundering regs to BTC would be a huge positive. It would make BTC a safer play and get a lot of institutions off the sidelines and into the crypto game.

Miners are already moving to green energy options. A company called Argo has a site that runs 100% on hydro power.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,196
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And the spacs keep pouring in. Have to figure the gears are already in motion to turn off, or at least turn down, the flow.
The big issue with SPACs is the dilution via warrants and other share agreements. So, even if the merger goes well and you are up, after a few months you will have to take a significant haircut due to these SPAC terms. Gotta wait until all of this is over.
 
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phs73rc77gsm83

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Aug 11, 2011
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The big issue with SPACs is the dilution via warrants and other share agreements. So, even if the merger goes well and you are up, after a few months you will have to take a significant haircut due to these SPAC terms. Gotta wait until all of this is over.
The other big issue is that SPACs circumvent the SEC scrutiny that goes along with the traditional IPO process. There is far less due diligence on SPACs and “investors” are, if not flying blind, taking a leap of faith.
 
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