Fun week ahead for the markets!
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
I have the banks for this week, hopefully that gets them going again.
Then a bigger grouping of companies next week.
Write up on that hearing aid penny stock company mentioned recently. Can hook it up to your phone to control it. Can buy it online orat the pharmacy no longer needing to go to a doctor. I'm sure there are other players in the field, and there is not huge overall market here, but you are getting in early on a company.
Got the banks covered in my value-focused funds. Not big exposure, but enough to keep me hedged. I will move some of this allocation to the S&P index, but will wait until the inflation data is released on Tuesday.
Ive been slowly accumulating QS as it has been dipping. Its currently at its lowest price since early Dec.
My bad. Wind is against us but still like it for battery/EV play. Been trading some shares in the range.
QS is a spec play of spec plays (since they don't even have a product to sell yet). It may be the greatest thing ever or it may be another nuclear fusion hope and dream.
Congrats on going for it. We all need one of these in our portfolio!
YOLO. Definitely a spec play. Trying to follow the smart money.
I guess my spec play is my crypto portfolio! Got BTC, ETH, and 3 crypto based stocks. Looking to add a 4th stock when the price is right. So far the portfolio is up over 60%.
Tomorrow will be BOOM or BUST (no matter the data, this emotional market will overreact):
Fed said the other day they weren't seeing any inflation so I would be surprised if we see big numbers from this.
Im heavy on Tech / EV / Alternative energy as I think its the future. A lot of them are spec plays, but Im all for it.
New inflation report, market seems happy:
Other inflation indicators are trending upwards:
Food price inflation was well under expectations. Last month's increase was almost solely due to energy costs. So far so good!
Bought some today, this $42 level has been solid support.
Think I'll only be in this as a trade. Company still too far off.
I don't follow this as closely as I used to, but they have been manipulating these numbers forever to keep the inflation index down. That's why I was confident in saying you won't see anything in today's numbers. They will only admit there is inflation when its already out of control.
Here is a counter argument to today's numbers:
Even if they do succeed, they are projecting such a small number of batteries well into the future. What can you do with 20 Gwh of batteries? That's certainly not enough to make a dent in the EV market. Perhaps for an electric VTOL jet, but that's a toy for the super wealthy. Solid state reminds me of nuclear fusion. Always 10 years away.
Like I said, I'm in it as a trade. It's bounced off the $42 level 3 times in the last 3 months. I'm not expecting it to get back to the $60 level like it has on 2 of the 3 rebounds, but I'd be perfectly happy selling at $50.
I got in a little early on VIAC, at around $45, I do think I am going to add a bit here.
Today was the first day since the selling began that we had an up day on low volume. I personally view that as a good sign in a situation like this.
Good article on QS and battery technology
Thanks man, these are the kind of nuggets I was hoping to get when I started this thread. Appreciate it.
Tesla updated their website. Two new sections: COMMERCIAL ENERGY & UTILITIES
6 of the 10 largest global companies by revenue are in the energy sector:
Largest companies by revenue
Elon said last year, he expects Tesla energy to be as large or larger than the vehicle business. We're starting to see this. Still though, I think this is being overlooked by analysists and retail investors alike. I predict the numbers for Q1 energy are going turn a lot of heads, and this is just the beginning. Cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable.
https://www.tesla.com/commercial
https://www.tesla.com/utilities
6 of the 10 largest global companies by revenue are in the energy sector:
Largest companies by revenue
Elon said last year, he expects Tesla energy to be as large or larger than the vehicle business. We're starting to see this. Still though, I think this is being overlooked by analysists and retail investors alike. I predict the numbers for Q1 energy are going turn a lot of heads, and this is just the beginning. Cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable.
https://www.tesla.com/commercial
https://www.tesla.com/utilities
Much slimmer margins I assume, and stock price multiples are tiny fraction of what TSLA is now selling at.
TSLA has traded at a much higher multiple then the auto industry, and it looks like that is leading to multiple expansion for the rest of the industry as it turns EV, so maybe similar happens in the Energy and Utility sector.
Tesla is becoming its own ETF!
The other thing to look at is the movement of the stock within the day. If the stock is up in the first few hours of trading and then goes down, this would suggest that retail buyers are buying in the morning and the institutional holders are then selling. This is further evidenced by the high volumes for those days. Yesterday was different.
I initially agreed with you about the margins. But then I think about how Tesla's autobidder software takes a teeny, tiny cut of every energy transaction. A single megapack system could have hundreds of transactions per day. Energy prices fluctuate by the minute, and autobidder (AI software) takes advantage of this. Tesla also says on their site they can and will license autobidder software to 3rd party energy storage systems. Having said that, I honestly have no idea what those margin # will look like. But, they're certainly growing the energy portion of the business very aggressively, so that is telling.
Up nearly 3% this morning. Bought a little more.
Didn't have a ton of money left, as I was buying some crypto miners this morning on a dip, looking for quick trades there, so if all goes well there I'll have more money later today.
I think that would indicate better then sector margins, but still slim margins. Then again, auto industry is a slim margin sector as well.
I'm pretty heavy on infrastructure plays, industrials, materials and the like, thus I trailed pretty heavily yesterday.
Nice rebound day today though. Haven't soundly beaten the indices since Feb, and have trailed in general during that time. Needed this one.
Nice rebound day today though. Haven't soundly beaten the indices since Feb, and have trailed in general during that time. Needed this one.
Did CW uw this in her $3000 price target or do you think she needs to revisit?
So Bill Nygren, manager at Oakmark funds, a big value investor had an interesting stat.
Growth P/E's typically trade at 2-3x the P/E's of value. Last year it went as high as 10x. Currently at 5x. So prob still some reversion that needs to happen there.
Also noted that because of technology, and the intangible assets that go along with it, value investors need to look beyond the traditional price to book metrics, which do well with more tangible assets, but not so much with the intangible.
Growth P/E's typically trade at 2-3x the P/E's of value. Last year it went as high as 10x. Currently at 5x. So prob still some reversion that needs to happen there.
Also noted that because of technology, and the intangible assets that go along with it, value investors need to look beyond the traditional price to book metrics, which do well with more tangible assets, but not so much with the intangible.