OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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No, she didn't. I wasn't the biggest fan of her methodology. Without going into too much detail, ARK didn't include energy, made projections for a human driven robotaxi network (never mentioned by Tesla), and also included revenue for a $15K vehicle (never mentioned by Tesla). So yeah, not a fan
With this degree of volatility, you may want to have a hard stop set up as well. Some traders may be tricky and waiting for a bounce before selling.
Since @jtung230 brought up ARK's price target, I might as well throw this out there. Please critique the following thesis:
Could ARK have been sandbagging their $3000 price target for selfish reasons? I know some of you think a $3K price target is already absurd, but hear me out and please feel free to tell me why I'm wrong. The Monte Carlo simulation gives such a broad range of possible outcomes. Many can be immediately thrown out as worthless. I have to think ARK did their own models for auto, energy, software, and autonomy. What if ARKs numbers came out to be well above the $3K price average from the Monte Carlo? Wouldn't investors say, "To hell with ARK funds, why not just invest straight up in TSLA?" And as @T2Kplus20 said, Tesla is kind of becoming an ETF all by itself. IDK, am i crazy?
Could ARK have been sandbagging their $3000 price target for selfish reasons? I know some of you think a $3K price target is already absurd, but hear me out and please feel free to tell me why I'm wrong. The Monte Carlo simulation gives such a broad range of possible outcomes. Many can be immediately thrown out as worthless. I have to think ARK did their own models for auto, energy, software, and autonomy. What if ARKs numbers came out to be well above the $3K price average from the Monte Carlo? Wouldn't investors say, "To hell with ARK funds, why not just invest straight up in TSLA?" And as @T2Kplus20 said, Tesla is kind of becoming an ETF all by itself. IDK, am i crazy?
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@BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap
honestly, I think your analysis is better than the one CW put out on TSLA. Maybe she was sandbagging it. That’s a hell of a sandbag at 3000.
honestly, I think your analysis is better than the one CW put out on TSLA. Maybe she was sandbagging it. That’s a hell of a sandbag at 3000.
Thanks. I just sent in my resume.I'm thinking about it as it settles back to it's opening price.
I actually got out of one the miners early, it was down maybe 2%, the other one I bought is down 4%. Each were down 8ish% when I bought in.
COIN spiked then settled back.
So a lot of "crypto" money flowed from the miners, as well as the crypto funds to COIN. But I'm wondering if and when it flows back.
COIN, and it's 100b market cap immediately became the elephant in the room. RIOT one of the dominant miners is a $5b cap.
Is Coin tanking the crypto market?
Maybe it was the crypto thread but someone mentioned a sell the news scenario, and that may be what is playing out right now.
Maybe it was the crypto thread but someone mentioned a sell the news scenario, and that may be what is playing out right now.
I assume a lot of crypto money has moved to COIN. Likely temporary. The new car shine will wear off quickly.
I think the bigger question is, is COIN going to be a beacon of sorts that draws more new money into the overall crypto trade?
Will be interesting to see if COIN trades in step with BTC. As it makes money on every trade, whether BTC is going up or down, I would think it shouldn't, but figure it will.
The market cap of COIN just seems insane for the crypto market. I know that the current financials justify it, but wow, $100B or close to it is huge. Only actually coins do that.
Seems like COIN is working hard to increase other revenue streams (i.e., not transaction based). If they can, this valuation may be low.
Maybe that market cap, especially if the financials can justify it, is another validation for crypto.
Hard for people to act like it's merely smoke and mirrors when there is this $100B trading platform.
My crypto portfolio was down about 7% today. Will be back up soon.
If for some reason MARA or RIOT drop again, I may go for the miner yo-yo play!
Judging by how the top 4 Cryptos by market cap are doing (look at 7 Day returns), I'd say no. Did money leave some stocks like RIOT to chase COIN due to FOMO? My guess is yes, and it's just a short term blip.
Also looking at broader Mkt, overall market cap of all Cryptocurrencies is $2.24 T, down .68% in 24 hours. Not much of a downside move.
Certainly seems like a buy the rumor and sell the news event. If that is the truly the case, there will be many opportunities to buy crypto in the upcoming weeks.
Be careful with COIN. I don't know any early investors (I am not one of them) that are not planning to sell a substantial amount of their holdings in the next few months. With direct listing, there is no lock-up period. Also the revenue model for COIN seems flawed. They will be undercut if cryptocurrency gains more widespread use. I have a feeling direct listing was a way for the initial investors to get out quickly before the business model undergoes scrutiny. Remember they likely wont report earning until the next quarter. There is little chance at insight into their earnings and business model for the next 3 months.
Ok, take it to the crypto thread. We are only going to talk about all other speculative investments here.
It's probably to a fault but I am super diversified. COIN makes up about 1% of my portfolio. Crypto overall is maybe around 10%, and though that may seem high, I've peeled a ton of profits over the last 8 months, so it has earned a significant allocation.
FYI - looks like a major BOT sell program tanked the market at 2pm and pulled COIN down as well:
cathie wood purchased $250 million. Wonder what price she got; near the bottom or near the top?
He mentions the beaten down spac market as a source of potential investment oppurtunities. I agree, I think there are some good companies that were brought down, not because of misteps from the company or by getting too expensive fundamentally but instead by the overall flood of new companies coming to market.
Probably won't truly shake out until these companies complete their mergers and more importantly report earnings/provide legit guidance for a quarter or two.
She has long term view so probably at the top. There is a reason so many these SPAC guys like her.
I'm high on GHVI/Matterport, just don't now when is the right time. Even after the merger, you normally is a 8-10% dilution within the first quarter due to warrants and new shares. I guess you need to get in real early or wait for all the dust to settle.
Your favorite recent SPAC, QS just busted through it's $42 support level. Down nearly 10% this morning.
I saw it yesterday at around $40, knowing it was below that support, but didn't react. effer.
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THBR, which is merger with a chip company is interesting, just getting in early on a company that is in a continually growing sector.
STPK is a name that keeps popping up as a stock with some serious head room. AI in the clean energy storage business.
Must have been after my post. So CW sets a $3000 price target about a month ago based on her “Monte Carlo simulation” but then sells close to 250,000 shares?! What a joke. She was just waiting for a run-up and an opportunity to dump some shares in a busy news cycle and figured the COIN buzz would drown out her sale.
Stupid post. CW sells TSLA shares from time to time to try to keep it's allocation under certain levels in her funds. Sometimes TSLA just grows too fast! LOL.
Stupid post? Did you read yours? Oh, that’s right you wrote it. She just recently set a $3K price target and then sells 250K shares. Are you that stupid?