OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
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Hired an advisor last week. First thing he said was too much Amazon. Made me sell 40%. Will have to call him in the morning.
The fact that Amazon didn’t go up the last earning date meant it was going to beat this earning period. Microsoft didn’t do so well this quarter so I expect it to beat next qtr. this is generally true.

Expect AAPL to go higher next quarter after earning.
 
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RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
I didn't, but 4%? Do people really get into short term trades for that level of gain?
rutgersdave said:
The rotation back to the techs stocks will be around the beginning of April when earnings will be coming out like the last two years. I dived in and purchased Appl, FB, AMZN and ADBE when they were down 14-15% from the high and they are now down 16-17%. I expect they can continue to go down to 20% from their highs. FB PE is only 25. AMZN is now 3,000 with the high of 3,550. I’m presently at 29% equities and will be purchasing more when I see the techs start turning upward. I’ve been doing this for the last two years each quarter and consider this safe trading. I don’t expect these stocks to recover 100% to their previous highs due to the change in the interest rate unless I wait a years but the minimum they will go back to 10% from their highs in a quarter.
Click to expand...
RU-05

Just looking at the chart for FB, I don't think it backs up your trading strategy. It was trading higher going into earnings in April last year, and it traded higher on the back side of earnings. Traded pretty flat heading into earnings in July, then traded higher on the backside. Was trading up prior to earnings in October, sold off in the days ahead of it the bounced back on the backside. Fairly similar in Jan, traded higher pulled back just prior, bounced back a little on the backside, but then rolled over.


It has been in a bit of channel since early sept highs, so you could probably set some buy and sell levels that will work, but I'm not seeing this pattern around earnings that you are talking about.

Def looking fairly affordable with that p/e and solid growth expected.

My strategy works very well. I moved 65% of assets into these stocks and sold them Incrementally until today.
 
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RUBlackout

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Mar 11, 2008
10,723
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Hired an advisor last week. First thing he said was too much Amazon. Made me sell 40%. Will have to call him in the morning.
Haha! I spoke to an advisor also and he said the same thing about my positions in Amazon, Apple, TSLa and MSFT. I haven’t called him back
 
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rurahrah000

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Aug 21, 2010
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I didn't, but 4%? Do people really get into short term trades for that level of gain?
Are you serious. 4% return in 24 hours is no longer worth investing? I think last years gains have spoiled you. Remember, average gains at 10% in most years are considered good. Heck, Maddoff was offering what like 10-15% per year and people were flocking to him. For most years, gains in the stock market are slow and steady. 2020 stock market is not the norm. You will learn that over time.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,206
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Are you serious. 4% return in 24 hours is no longer worth investing? I think last years gains have spoiled you. Remember, average gains at 10% in most years are considered good. Heck, Maddoff was offering what like 10-15% per year and people were flocking to him. For most years, gains in the stock market are slow and steady. 2020 stock market is not the norm. You will learn that over time.
I would sign up for 10% over the next 16 years in a heartbeat! :)
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,206
19,211
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RU-05

Just looking at the chart for FB, I don't think it backs up your trading strategy. It was trading higher going into earnings in April last year, and it traded higher on the back side of earnings. Traded pretty flat heading into earnings in July, then traded higher on the backside. Was trading up prior to earnings in October, sold off in the days ahead of it the bounced back on the backside. Fairly similar in Jan, traded higher pulled back just prior, bounced back a little on the backside, but then rolled over.


It has been in a bit of channel since early sept highs, so you could probably set some buy and sell levels that will work, but I'm not seeing this pattern around earnings that you are talking about.

Def looking fairly affordable with that p/e and solid growth expected.

My strategy works very well. I moved 65% of assets into these stocks and sold them Incrementally until today.
Bought FB at $260. New Morningstar FMV is $390, so it's time to hold, hold, hold. :)
 

rurahrah000

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Aug 21, 2010
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Bought FB at $260. New Morningstar FMV is $390, so it's time to hold, hold, hold. :)
I was lucky enough to buy FB back in the day at $24 (10,000 stocks). It has now moved into my Vanguard account with AAPL, AMZN, etc as a long term stock that will be passed onto future generations
 
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Jtung230

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Jun 30, 2005
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Haha! I spoke to an advisor also and he said the same thing about my positions in Amazon, Apple, TSLa and MSFT. I haven’t called him back
In all fairness, he is 100% correct. I would never pull the trigger, that’s why I hired him to do it for me. I expect long term benefits. Oh yeah, he did buy some Google too.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,206
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After me posting for two years, you started buying my suggestion for tech stocks.
I split up my annual bonuses last month. 50% went into our brokerage account and normal funds/ETFs. The other 50% got used to buy 12 value tech stocks that I am holding (overweight, equalweight, and underweight positions). Bought the bulk on March 5 and 8. Too good to pass up!

These bonuses were larger than normal, so what the hell. The stocks combined are up about 20%.
 
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RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
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I split up my annual bonuses last month. 50% went into our brokerage account and normal funds/ETFs. The other 50% got used to buy 12 value tech stocks that I am holding (overweight, equalweight, and underweight positions). Bought the bulk on March 5 and 8. Too good to pass up!

These bonuses were larger than normal, so what the hell. The stocks combined are up about 20%.
Most people start investing in ETF or mutual funds and after a couple of years will start investing in individual stocks. The individual stocks will give you the ability to hit it big.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,206
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Most people start investing in ETF or mutual funds and after a couple of years will start investing in individual stocks. The individual stocks will give you the ability to hit it big.
I need to do the math, but I think we are:

98% - Funds/ETFs
1.5% - stocks
0.5% - cryptos

LOL! But I am proud of how I did this. I played a shell game. I actually have these stocks in one of our rollover IRAs, so no taxes. I essentially "moved" a particular ETF to our brokerage account and used the freed up money in the IRA for the stocks. Even though I'm a buy and hold investor, this gives me the flexibility to adjust as needed.

At the time of purchase, most of these tech stocks were well undervalued via Morningstar. That was my plan and I'm sticking too it.
 
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rurahrah000

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I need to do the math, but I think we are:

98% - Funds/ETFs
1.5% - stocks
0.5% - cryptos

LOL! But I am proud of how I did this. I played a shell game. I actually have these stocks in one of our rollover IRAs, so no taxes. I essentially "moved" a particular ETF to our brokerage account and used the freed up money in the IRA for the stocks. Even though I'm a buy and hold investor, this gives me the flexibility to adjust as needed.

At the time of purchase, most of these tech stocks were well undervalued via Morningstar. That was my plan and I'm sticking too it.
Good for you. Stay true to your convictions and stick with your plan.
 
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rurahrah000

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The fact that Amazon didn’t go up the last earning date meant it was going to beat this earning period. Microsoft didn’t do so well this quarter so I expect it to beat next qtr. this is generally true.

Expect AAPL to go higher next quarter after earning.

For short term investors, the recent price movement in AAPL, F, MSFT is concerning. I would sell AMZN (short term trading only) in the after hours while booking the gains and start pulling back on high beta stocks. There maybe a pullback and a broader correction this summer. My guess is somewhere between late may to July. Can try to buy protection with VIX (high beta) calls or SPY puts.
 
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mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,462
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Most people start investing in ETF or mutual funds and after a couple of years will start investing in individual stocks. The individual stocks will give you the ability to hit it big.

Doesn't hold true. I started with T Rowe Price New Horizons 27 years ago cause I didn't have time to research small caps. After 14.1% average over that span my only regret is not investing more.
 

RU in IM

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Nov 3, 2011
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I would sign up for 10% over the next 16 years in a heartbeat! :)
Given the run that we have had for a decade, I would be happy with a 5-7% return. Buffet suggests that we should expect an average of 7 percent over the long term. But based on the law of averages, we might fall short of the 7 percent, given the high returns over the last decade and the high valuations (very high average p/e vs. historical levels.) Look what happened after the huge run in the late 90’s. (Average of 2-3% over 13 years in the S&P 500.



2000-9.10%
2001-11.89%
2002-22.10%
200328.68%
200410.88%
20054.91%
200615.79%
20075.49%
2008-37.00%
200926.46%
201015.06%
20112.11%
201216.00%
 
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RU in IM

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Doesn't hold true. I started with T Rowe Price New Horizons 27 years ago cause I didn't have time to research small caps. After 14.1% average over that span my only regret is not investing more.
Congratulations, tremendous performance over a long period.
 
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T2Kplus20

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May 1, 2007
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Given the run that we have had for a decade, I would be happy with a 5-7% return. Buffet suggests that we should expect an average of 7 percent over the long term. But based on the law of averages, we might fall short of the 7 percent, given the high returns over the last decade and the high valuations (very high average p/e vs. historical levels.) Look what happened after the huge run in the late 90’s. (Average of 2-3% over 13 years in the S&P 500.



2000-9.10%
2001-11.89%
2002-22.10%
200328.68%
200410.88%
20054.91%
200615.79%
20075.49%
2008-37.00%
200926.46%
201015.06%
20112.11%
201216.00%
Small/Mid cap value funds and health science funds did extremely well during the 2000s. There is always a bull market somewhere! :)
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,206
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Congratulations, tremendous performance over a long period.
I've had PRNHX (New Horizons) for the past 15 years. Amazing fund! I also have had FDGRX (Fidelity Growth Company), PRHSX (T Rowe Health Sciences), and PRGTX (T Rowe Global Tech) for the long haul as well. All remarkable!
 

RUAldo

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Where do the “experts” on this Board park their cash and trading reserves? I’ve got most of mine in the Fidelity Gov’t Money Market Fund (FZCXX). Are there better options that offer higher rates of return and also allow for flexibility/liquidity if and when needed?
 

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,470
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Where do the “experts” on this Board park their cash and trading reserves? I’ve got most of mine in the Fidelity Gov’t Money Market Fund (FZCXX). Are there better options that offer higher rates of return and also allow for flexibility/liquidity if and when needed?
why would you do that? money parked, especially in a mmkt fund toay, is literally dead money. If you need liquidity that rapidly, keep in money in checking acct otherwise buy a REIT or income paying stock, told everyone this for past year. I'm earning over 11% on my cash that is not part of my 'trading' portfolio. That 11% does not include inevitable cap appreciation.

Be the fireman; when everyone is running from the fire, RUN TOWARDS IT
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
For short term investors, the recent price movement in AAPL, F, MSFT is concerning. I would sell AMZN (short term trading only) in the after hours while booking the gains and start pulling back on high beta stocks. There maybe a pullback and a broader correction this summer. My guess is somewhere between late may to July. Can try to buy protection with VIX (high beta) calls or SPY puts.
I’m sure there will be a pullback before the next earnings season and will buy back some of the tech stocks. I did get rid of Amazon up 170 and now only up 84 this morning.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,206
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I’m sure there will be a pullback before the next earnings season and will buy back some of the tech stocks. I did get rid of Amazon up 170 and now only up 84 this morning.
Once again, bad plan. AMZN runs up to $4000, it pulls back to $3900 and then you buy back? Doesn't make sense.

FMV increase for The Zon:

Amazon Shows Strength Across the Board and Provides a Constructive Outlook; FVE Up to $4,200
Analyst Note | by Dan Romanoff Updated Apr 29, 2021
Wide-moat Amazon continued its string of impressive results in the first quarter, with revenue and operating profit both topping the high end of guidance. Guidance for the second quarter is better than FactSet consensus, while operating profit is within the range. Amazon remains well positioned to prosper from the shift toward e-commerce during the COVID-19 pandemic (with particular strength in groceries and staples) in the near term, but also the secular shift toward e-commerce in the long term. We think results show the company can sustain strength even as the lockdowns ease, as management sees no slowdown in demand. We are again impressed by Amazon’s earnings power as COVID-19 costs roll away and the company grows into its 50% fulfilment capacity expansion from 2020. We raise our fair value estimate to $4,200 per share from $4,000 based on results and guidance.

First-quarter revenue grew 44% (41% in constant currency) year over year to $108.5 billion, compared with FactSet consensus of $104.5 billion and guidance of $100 billion to $106 billion. Physical stores, which declined 16% year over year, was unsurprisingly the lone soft spot. The brightest area was other revenue, which includes advertising and grew 77% year over year, ahead of our model. We think advertising remains a very attractive option for marketers looking to access a vast audience. Relative to the first quarter in 2020, AWS grew 32% to $13.5 billion, thanks to robust cloud adoption. Online stores grew 44% to $52.9 billion, with groceries performing well per management. Third party grew 64% year over year, while subscription grew 36%.

Operating margin was 8.2%, compared with 5.3% a year ago and 4.6% at the midpoint of guidance. This includes $4 billion of COVID-19-related costs, while Amazon also opened additional data center capacity, which capped margins. We remain impressed by Amazon’s margin performance and we expect strength to continue as COVID-19-related costs unwind throughout the year.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
Once again, bad plan. AMZN runs up to $4000, it pulls back to $3900 and then you buy back? Doesn't make sense.

FMV increase for The Zon:

Amazon Shows Strength Across the Board and Provides a Constructive Outlook; FVE Up to $4,200
Analyst Note | by Dan Romanoff Updated Apr 29, 2021
Wide-moat Amazon continued its string of impressive results in the first quarter, with revenue and operating profit both topping the high end of guidance. Guidance for the second quarter is better than FactSet consensus, while operating profit is within the range. Amazon remains well positioned to prosper from the shift toward e-commerce during the COVID-19 pandemic (with particular strength in groceries and staples) in the near term, but also the secular shift toward e-commerce in the long term. We think results show the company can sustain strength even as the lockdowns ease, as management sees no slowdown in demand. We are again impressed by Amazon’s earnings power as COVID-19 costs roll away and the company grows into its 50% fulfilment capacity expansion from 2020. We raise our fair value estimate to $4,200 per share from $4,000 based on results and guidance.

First-quarter revenue grew 44% (41% in constant currency) year over year to $108.5 billion, compared with FactSet consensus of $104.5 billion and guidance of $100 billion to $106 billion. Physical stores, which declined 16% year over year, was unsurprisingly the lone soft spot. The brightest area was other revenue, which includes advertising and grew 77% year over year, ahead of our model. We think advertising remains a very attractive option for marketers looking to access a vast audience. Relative to the first quarter in 2020, AWS grew 32% to $13.5 billion, thanks to robust cloud adoption. Online stores grew 44% to $52.9 billion, with groceries performing well per management. Third party grew 64% year over year, while subscription grew 36%.

Operating margin was 8.2%, compared with 5.3% a year ago and 4.6% at the midpoint of guidance. This includes $4 billion of COVID-19-related costs, while Amazon also opened additional data center capacity, which capped margins. We remain impressed by Amazon’s margin performance and we expect strength to continue as COVID-19-related costs unwind throughout the year.
I agree Amazon is a great company that will reach 4000.I only invest in great companies. I just don’t know when. However, just like AMZN went down to 2950 a couple of months ago, I believe it will go down close to 3,300, my entrance point.
 

RUAldo

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why would you do that? money parked, especially in a mmkt fund toay, is literally dead money. If you need liquidity that rapidly, keep in money in checking acct otherwise buy a REIT or income paying stock, told everyone this for past year. I'm earning over 11% on my cash that is not part of my 'trading' portfolio. That 11% does not include inevitable cap appreciation.

Be the fireman; when everyone is running from the fire, RUN TOWARDS IT
Re: a checking account, I believe the last time I looked at FZCXX it earned a little over 1% for the last 2-3 years which I thought far exceeded any rate of return from a checking account. BTW, Fidelity uses various Gov’t MM funds as defaults for cash positions.

Re: income stocks, if I buy a REIT or dividend paying stock and need liquidity to, for example, buy a correction, I would likely not only lose money on that stock but if I were to sell those stocks the funds would not settle in time for me to buy new positions.

Am I still missing the big picture here? I’m looking for the highest rate of return on cash with max flexibility/liquidity and low risk.
 
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RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,470
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Re: a checking account, I believe the last time I looked at FZCXX it earned a little over 1% for the last 2-3 years which I thought far exceeded any rate of return from a checking account. BTW, Fidelity uses various Gov’t MM funds as defaults for cash positions.

Re: income stocks, if I buy a REIT or dividend paying stock and need liquidity to, for example, buy a correction, I would likely not only lose money on that stock but if I were to sell those stocks the funds would not settle in time for me to buy new positions.

Am I still missing the big picture here? I’m looking for the highest rate of return on cash with max flexibility/liquidity and low risk.
you shouldn't be in the market. Bear in mind, you will make more money this year clipping coupons for shoprite vists than you will in any mmkt fund. mmkt funds are a fools glory

Don't take that as being harsh, just your concern with liquidity trumps all else. Keep your money in the bank, utilize coupons this year and bam, you are ahead of the game. Don't believe me run the numbers......
 
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RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,470
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I'd also point out that sale of stock and transfer to acct is 3-4 days now. If anyone needs cash on hand sooner than that then investing in anything is the wrong approach. Liquidity needs to be managed
 

RUAldo

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I'd also point out that sale of stock and transfer to acct is 3-4 days now. If anyone needs cash on hand sooner than that then investing in anything is the wrong approach. Liquidity needs to be managed
Exactly - so what’s the best way to manage cash with rate of return and liquidity in mind? If I put my cash in the bank I essentially get nothing. If I put my cash into REITs or dividend payers I don’t have immediate access and risk a downturn. If I put my cash in Fidelity Govt MM (which is the Fidelity default) I’m making roughly 1% over a 2-3 year period (didn’t confirm) and can tap it whenever I want to take advantage of corrections and dips. I’m just curious if there is a better strategy.
 

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,470
40,571
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Exactly - so what’s the best way to manage cash with rate of return and liquidity in mind? If I put my cash in the bank I essentially get nothing. If I put my cash into REITs or dividend payers I don’t have immediate access and risk a downturn. If I put my cash in Fidelity Govt MM (which is the Fidelity default) I’m making roughly 1% over a 2-3 year period (didn’t confirm) and can tap it whenever I want to take advantage of corrections and dips. I’m just curious if there is a better strategy.
already told you. You should not be in the mkt, keep your money in the bank and clip coupons when shopping as your net value will be higher plus you'll have fantastic liquidity. It's not rocket science, you either have money to invest or you don't and it sounds like you don't have money to invest. Stick to the bank and coupons (I'm serious, coupons will generate 3-6% on avg)
 

RUAldo

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already told you. You should not be in the mkt, keep your money in the bank and clip coupons when shopping as your net value will be higher plus you'll have fantastic liquidity. It's not rocket science, you either have money to invest or you don't and it sounds like you don't have money to invest. Stick to the bank and coupons (I'm serious, coupons will generate 3-6% on avg)
We are likely talking past each other. I’m HEAVILY invested in the market and not sitting on much cash relative to my entire portfolio. But, I’m trying to find higher yield on the cash but must have liquidity for trading. Most of my biggest gains in my lifetime were based on buying during major downturns (financial crisis, Brexit, flash-crash, COVID, etc.). Every pro keeps some cash on the sidelines to deploy at any time - my question is where do most folks usually park it to get the highest yield.
 

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,470
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We are likely talking past each other. I’m HEAVILY invested in the market and not sitting on much cash relative to my entire portfolio. But, I’m trying to find higher yield on the cash but must have liquidity for trading. Most of my biggest gains in my lifetime were based on buying during major downturns (financial crisis, Brexit, flash-crash, COVID, etc.). Every pro keeps some cash on the sidelines to deploy at any time - my question is where do most folks usually park it to get the highest yield.
gotcha...makes sense now

in that case just find the best yielding mmkt acct wait for an opportunity. Not much you can do about yield keeping liquidity that close. I don't keep cash sitting outside my bank and try to be fully invested. If I'm going to make a purchase etc, I'll play the 'reallocate' game. I own several investments with 10% yield and over 40% appreciation. set your targets and go, no waiting....:)
 

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
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I know this will tick off some of the karens on this board but the chinese virus pandemic has been fantastic for my brokerage accts although I've have to be pretty active managing them. Well worth it of course
 

RUAldo

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I know this will tick off some of the karens on this board but the chinese virus pandemic has been fantastic for my brokerage accts although I've have to be pretty active managing them. Well worth it of course
I hear you - it’s done wonders for my net worth. But I’m convinced the Fed has let the market run hot and investment accounts explode so there will be more to tax and potentially less complaining.
 

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,470
40,571
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I hear you - it’s done wonders for my net worth. But I’m convinced the Fed has let the market run hot and investment accounts explode so there will be more to tax and potentially less complaining.
Problem with the Fed is that they focus too mon the markets and have lost sight of their central mission. Greenspan started it, the regulators are part lax or incubered, and the population is too greedy.
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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Are you serious. 4% return in 24 hours is no longer worth investing? I think last years gains have spoiled you. Remember, average gains at 10% in most years are considered good. Heck, Maddoff was offering what like 10-15% per year and people were flocking to him. For most years, gains in the stock market are slow and steady. 2020 stock market is not the norm. You will learn that over time.
I'm def spoiled by this past year. But still 4% trade is a nice little return on a fairly low risk trade. I imagine that is true even in a more normal market.
 

RU05

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RU-05

Just looking at the chart for FB, I don't think it backs up your trading strategy. It was trading higher going into earnings in April last year, and it traded higher on the back side of earnings. Traded pretty flat heading into earnings in July, then traded higher on the backside. Was trading up prior to earnings in October, sold off in the days ahead of it the bounced back on the backside. Fairly similar in Jan, traded higher pulled back just prior, bounced back a little on the backside, but then rolled over.


It has been in a bit of channel since early sept highs, so you could probably set some buy and sell levels that will work, but I'm not seeing this pattern around earnings that you are talking about.

Def looking fairly affordable with that p/e and solid growth expected.

My strategy works very well. I moved 65% of assets into these stocks and sold them Incrementally until today.
For this quarter at least, you nailed it.

Interesting to see what these guys do in the coming weeks. I know May is typically not a great month, but coming off those earning, after having been pretty flat since Sept, I think there might be some upside in the short term. Maybe FB most specifically.