OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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You can buy Doge on Robinhood.
I invested like $500 in Doge in 2018 when a single doge cost a small fraction of a penny. That $500 grew to 6 figures. I kept it until the value went up to 43 cents and then, when it fell again, I sold most of it at 26 cents. Huge profit, but now that the value is in the sixties I feel dumb for selling as I lost over $150K in profit that I would have had if I didn't sell.
I sold early because I listened to all the experts who said Doge had no value. IDK, percentagewise it's been the most profitable investment of my life.
Most likely it eventually goes to zero, but it's also possible that they cap the number of Doges that can be mined and value increases to the moon....
I invested like $500 in Doge in 2018 when a single doge cost a small fraction of a penny. That $500 grew to 6 figures. I kept it until the value went up to 43 cents and then, when it fell again, I sold most of it at 26 cents. Huge profit, but now that the value is in the sixties I feel dumb for selling as I lost over $150K in profit that I would have had if I didn't sell.
I sold early because I listened to all the experts who said Doge had no value. IDK, percentagewise it's been the most profitable investment of my life.
Most likely it eventually goes to zero, but it's also possible that they cap the number of Doges that can be mined and value increases to the moon....
Not sure WMT is the best business to weather an inflationary environment (fwiw, neither is AT&T).
Yup. I added XLE to a second account (already had it in our Roth IRAs) and also added in OIH. Not a huge position, about 15% in total for that account. Reduced VTI.
Another sound Ark investment, lol. In a huge loss position, as Cathie loaded up as the price increased.
ARKK is up 490% over the past 5 years. How did you do? Calm down with the hate.
Yeah, but what you fail to recognize is that if you take out 2020’s magic market ride CW’s performance drops dramatically. And I fully admit that’s the case with plenty of stocks/funds especially those that were riding the spec tech and retail investor wave. Regardless, I’ll give zero credit to any fund manager for 2020 because just about any moron that had/put money in the market saw returns that may be a once in a lifetime stretch.
Ask yourself that question. Lol . I’m having a great year. You, by the way, said in a post weeks ago that your cost basis in Ark is $122, so how did her 490% return work for you? Months ago you pumped ARKK daily, now we hear squat from you. You constantly posted her buys, and now nothing. All I did was post a fact about one of her stocks. It’s not hate, I’m just pointing out reality...... that stocks with unjustified prices eventually fall hard... seen it many times over.
CB is closer to $114 and it's a wonderful add to the portfolio. Innovation is critical and happening faster than before. Let's see how the next few years ago. She wiped the floor with almost everyone (including you) for 4+ years.
Put down the hate and learn something new.
I’m not the least bit impressed by 156%. Not that I don’t think it’s a healthy return, but I have plenty of stocks that have done much better.
I’m not sure where you are coming from with your “hate” comment in both posts. Am I supposed to fall in line and cheerlead yesterday’s winners? I don’t agree with her investment strategy, which recently has been to double and triple down on speculative stocks. I’m quite older than you and lived through the 2000-2001 mess when many of my co-workers got sucked into the mania late and got clobbered. One had to come back from retirement for a couple of years. Is there a place for her fund? Absolutely!!!!! It’s just not for everyone.
I enjoy your posts. Good luck; you have done a great job investing. Just don’t “hate” others that have an opposing view.
Stocks? That's pointless. What about your entire portfolio? I haven't done the research but I can't think of many funds or ETFs that matched this performance over these 3 years.
Tides ebb and flow, as do markets. This market's been flowing for a long long while. And as the saying goes, "A rising tide lifts all boats." It's extraordinary, this market run up. Investors and traders and gamblers alike are realizing lots of $$$ gained. But the companies behind their traded stocks? There's a marked disconnect between their current stock valuation and their underlying profitability or lack thereof. As Mr. Buffet once infamously said, "It's only when the tide is out that you see who's been swimming naked." Methinks too many publicly traded companies have been swimming nekkid in this long-rising tide. And many market pundits have been reluctant to state the obvious, that "the emperor has no clothes," to draw from yet another old but appropriate parable. We have quite a few "swindling weavers" at work in the market and too many accommodating "yes men" (and women). But all tides ebb. Always.
You overreact to everyone that points out facts or has a negative opinion to any stock you like. Shorting a stock is not hate, and choosing not to be long does not make you a chicken little. That's amateur bull market genius talk.
I don’t profess to be an investing expert, but I’m already locked into funds/ETFs in my 401K, 529s, and wife’s 457 due to a general lack of choices. So, for my Roths and brokerage accounts I’m all stocks with heavy tech positions in GOOG, FB, IAC, MTCH, but also diversified with a mix of stocks like Camping World, CVS, SESN, InMode, etc. My investments in GOOG and FB alone probably put CW’s performance to shame and I’m not saying those stock picks were the result of any great visionary investing. Those were lay ups - probably still are even at current levels.
Any thoughts on this commentary I recently read:
$84 billion!
Remember that number, because that is but one contributor to the supply shortages that are emerging everywhere.
Economic and fiscal policies that emerged from the Great Recession disincentivized investments across a number of industries. That means there isn’t enough production capacity to meet demand for many critical components.
You’ve probably heard about the lack of lumber. You’ve likely even felt the pain of those soaring prices. But the most important shortage by far is taking place in semiconductors. It’s impacting smartphones, vehicles, appliances and even dog toys.
Here’s why chip supply chains are such a mess.
That’s how much Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) has spent on share buybacks over the past decade, instead of investing those funds in research and manufacturing capacity to meet unprecedented demand for semiconductors.
It’s just one of the reasons we face limited supply capacity.
Making semiconductors is hard and expensive. It costs anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion or more to build a new foundry to turn out chips. It takes even more to stay on the leading edge, which is why just one company dominates the market for the most advanced chips, with over 80% market share.
But even basic chips are in short supply, and that has more to do with the surprisingly strong demand. The unexpected strength in the post-pandemic economy left companies across industries such as automotive and appliances struggling to secure supplies.
There are also secular reasons that will make the shortage even worse. With advances in technology, devices need even more chip content to function.
5G smartphones will have nearly 40% more chips than the prior generation.
Electronic content will make up 50% of a car’s cost by 2030 compared to just 35% in 2010, as you can see below.
That’s just a couple examples among many.
And that means the chip shortage is here to stay.
But in all the mess, there is a profit opportunity lurking. And it may surprise you.
But with 16% market share, Intel is still the global leader and America’s chip champion by far. And now the company has a new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, and he’s sounding off on the company’s plan to steer funds away from share buybacks and toward adding chip capacity.
The company is plowing $20 billion into advanced chip production, and making investments to alleviate the auto shortage.
The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gets it on inflation, Intel’s new CEO understands that $84 billion blown on share buybacks has left the company in a poor position.
Intel’s new investments are just the first steps to put the company back on the path to leadership. But it has the resources and technical skills to take advantage of the chip shortage.
$84 billion!
Remember that number, because that is but one contributor to the supply shortages that are emerging everywhere.
Economic and fiscal policies that emerged from the Great Recession disincentivized investments across a number of industries. That means there isn’t enough production capacity to meet demand for many critical components.
You’ve probably heard about the lack of lumber. You’ve likely even felt the pain of those soaring prices. But the most important shortage by far is taking place in semiconductors. It’s impacting smartphones, vehicles, appliances and even dog toys.
Here’s why chip supply chains are such a mess.
WHY WE’RE SHORT ON CHIPS
Back to that $84 billion figure.That’s how much Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) has spent on share buybacks over the past decade, instead of investing those funds in research and manufacturing capacity to meet unprecedented demand for semiconductors.
It’s just one of the reasons we face limited supply capacity.
Making semiconductors is hard and expensive. It costs anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion or more to build a new foundry to turn out chips. It takes even more to stay on the leading edge, which is why just one company dominates the market for the most advanced chips, with over 80% market share.
But even basic chips are in short supply, and that has more to do with the surprisingly strong demand. The unexpected strength in the post-pandemic economy left companies across industries such as automotive and appliances struggling to secure supplies.
There are also secular reasons that will make the shortage even worse. With advances in technology, devices need even more chip content to function.
5G smartphones will have nearly 40% more chips than the prior generation.
Electronic content will make up 50% of a car’s cost by 2030 compared to just 35% in 2010, as you can see below.
That’s just a couple examples among many.
And that means the chip shortage is here to stay.
But in all the mess, there is a profit opportunity lurking. And it may surprise you.
WHY INTEL IS KEY TO SOLVING THE CHIP SHORTAGE
I originally recommended Intel back in July 2020. My argument at the time focused on America’s need to reclaim tech supremacy and secure domestic production. Soon after, the company revealed its lag in catching up with the latest technology … no doubt a result of years neglecting research and development.But with 16% market share, Intel is still the global leader and America’s chip champion by far. And now the company has a new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, and he’s sounding off on the company’s plan to steer funds away from share buybacks and toward adding chip capacity.
The company is plowing $20 billion into advanced chip production, and making investments to alleviate the auto shortage.
The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gets it on inflation, Intel’s new CEO understands that $84 billion blown on share buybacks has left the company in a poor position.
Intel’s new investments are just the first steps to put the company back on the path to leadership. But it has the resources and technical skills to take advantage of the chip shortage.
I haven’t read the earnings summary - was it raw material costs or did sales miss?
Ya, we've talked about chips here for a bit. The entirety of the sector was on fire until the past month or so. As the article notes, chips are going to be more prevalent, by a fair amount, and I don't see how that trend ever lets up. There is some thought that once all the chip manufacture's ramp up production there will eventually be a glut, and after the huge run in stock price, the current stagnation is due to looking outwards to that time, but I don't see how rev's and earnings don't continue to rise. Sure there will be ups and downs in stock price, but the overall trend should be up.Any thoughts on this commentary I recently read:
$84 billion!
Remember that number, because that is but one contributor to the supply shortages that are emerging everywhere.
Economic and fiscal policies that emerged from the Great Recession disincentivized investments across a number of industries. That means there isn’t enough production capacity to meet demand for many critical components.
You’ve probably heard about the lack of lumber. You’ve likely even felt the pain of those soaring prices. But the most important shortage by far is taking place in semiconductors. It’s impacting smartphones, vehicles, appliances and even dog toys.
Here’s why chip supply chains are such a mess.
WHY WE’RE SHORT ON CHIPS
Back to that $84 billion figure.
That’s how much Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) has spent on share buybacks over the past decade, instead of investing those funds in research and manufacturing capacity to meet unprecedented demand for semiconductors.
It’s just one of the reasons we face limited supply capacity.
Making semiconductors is hard and expensive. It costs anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion or more to build a new foundry to turn out chips. It takes even more to stay on the leading edge, which is why just one company dominates the market for the most advanced chips, with over 80% market share.
But even basic chips are in short supply, and that has more to do with the surprisingly strong demand. The unexpected strength in the post-pandemic economy left companies across industries such as automotive and appliances struggling to secure supplies.
There are also secular reasons that will make the shortage even worse. With advances in technology, devices need even more chip content to function.
5G smartphones will have nearly 40% more chips than the prior generation.
Electronic content will make up 50% of a car’s cost by 2030 compared to just 35% in 2010, as you can see below.
That’s just a couple examples among many.
And that means the chip shortage is here to stay.
But in all the mess, there is a profit opportunity lurking. And it may surprise you.
WHY INTEL IS KEY TO SOLVING THE CHIP SHORTAGE
I originally recommended Intel back in July 2020. My argument at the time focused on America’s need to reclaim tech supremacy and secure domestic production. Soon after, the company revealed its lag in catching up with the latest technology … no doubt a result of years neglecting research and development.
But with 16% market share, Intel is still the global leader and America’s chip champion by far. And now the company has a new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, and he’s sounding off on the company’s plan to steer funds away from share buybacks and toward adding chip capacity.
The company is plowing $20 billion into advanced chip production, and making investments to alleviate the auto shortage.
The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gets it on inflation, Intel’s new CEO understands that $84 billion blown on share buybacks has left the company in a poor position.
Intel’s new investments are just the first steps to put the company back on the path to leadership. But it has the resources and technical skills to take advantage of the chip shortage.
As per INTC they've been losing market share all over the place. Yes they have a new CEO, they are investing in a new plant, but that is a couple years off. Very cheap at 12.7X, and they are about 20% off their recent highs(many semi's are down) so might be a good time to get in and hold for a couple years.
Or it might just be smarter to buy AMD, NVDA, NXPI or any other semi company that will continue to grow as INTC tries to get their act together.
I believe from T2 K postings, that he might have started investing a few years before the 2008 crash. I don’t think he accumulated a significant amount in his 401k at that point. He continued to contribute into his 401k into mutual funds up to 2021 and with interest rates falling throughout the period has only seen positive returns during this period. That’s great.
My younger brother invested in S&P options right after 2008 and after 10 years accumulated a million trading options. At the time, I thought he knew what he was doing but later was thinking it might have been perfect timing( luck) that he invested in options when interest rates were dropping.
Unless CW were to totally abandon her investment philosophy, away from those long outlook potential disrupter companies, and more towards established currently profitable ones, this was going to happen. Last years trends could not have continued, there needed to be a monster correction, and that's where ARK is right now.
So she is sticking to her guns, it's what got her here, might be the right play in the long term, but it's painful right now.
ARKK has dropped 33% from its peak. During that same timeframe, the NASDAQ is down 4.7%, the S&P is up 5.2% and the DOW is up 8.9%. Not saying that it is a bad investment, it was just grossly overvalued in February, and there is no debating that.
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Does anyone know of a site that details the percentage that each stock makes up of an index. I am specifically interested in a Total Stock Market index fund. Would that be in the prospectus?
I believe I have seen this for the S&P 500 index but not sure I have for the Total Market
I believe I have seen this for the S&P 500 index but not sure I have for the Total Market
Harvesting some losses, not so painful given I took a fair amount of profits in early March(which weren't my best trades, but that's a different story).
Have some others on the chopping block, but hoping they are sitting at a resistance level and will bounce.
Have some others on the chopping block, but hoping they are sitting at a resistance level and will bounce.
Back to INTC for a second, in May of 2018, so 3 years ago, it traded above $57. It's currently a penny below $57. So dead money(granted 2.5% dividend) for 3 years.
Why has it been dead money since 2018? Because it's net income has been flat since 2018. And maybe more importantly it's expect earnings are going to dip in 2021, and then remain flat in 2022.
So yeah it's cheap, but you can certainly see the reason why. Still years off, you'd probably want to get in early to enjoy the best part of the run, but we are probably not there yet.
Why has it been dead money since 2018? Because it's net income has been flat since 2018. And maybe more importantly it's expect earnings are going to dip in 2021, and then remain flat in 2022.
So yeah it's cheap, but you can certainly see the reason why. Still years off, you'd probably want to get in early to enjoy the best part of the run, but we are probably not there yet.
Wow, your post made me realize we haven’t been getting the daily mining stock price updates, like we did a month or so ago. Many are down around 50% off their peak.
I don't buy the glut story. Companies will produce to the demand, not more that will cause an imbalance the other way. As of now, demand keeps growing and growing.
Morningstar is best for this - scroll to the bottom of the pages:
I was going to ask you and @ScarletNut about the same thing. BTC and ETH are up today, but the broader crypto market is down. Is the dust still settling or do we have a new normal with COIN around? Not sure.
I wonder if the COIN IPO got people onto the Coin site, and has them buying the cyrpto direct.
For awhile those miners were ridiculous. I rode it most of the way up, been in and out on the way down. Staying away, for now.