The supply chain issues you mention may be transitory but I am referring to inflation in the long term not for a few months. Inflation is happening all around. Stocks, bitcoin, real estate, used cars, etc. Looking at the feds inflation numbers only tells you part of the big picture. I think it will be a rocky road, but the trend will continue at a much higher rate than the Fed expectations.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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The supply chain issues you mention may be transitory but I am referring to inflation in the long term not for a few months. Inflation is happening all around. Stocks, bitcoin, real estate, used cars, etc. Looking at the feds inflation numbers only tells you part of the big picture. I think it will be a rocky road, but the trend will continue at a much higher rate than the Fed expectations.
Since I started invested a little over a year ago I've far outpaced the S&P. Now I'm dead flat since early March so there has been some catchup but I'm still in the lead.
If in time it proves that I can't outpace the S&P I'll switch.
Cramer is saying China has been doing that with semi conductor chips.
I work retail and we do it. Get yourself 2 months worth instead of 2 weeks. Otherwise it's very possible we will be out after those 2 weeks and won't be able to get more.
Read a story yesterday about companies doing that with lumber, companies that make roofing trusses were stocking way up on lumber, but are now selling off their supply. Lumber had fallen from as high as $1700 a couple months to $906 this morning. Should be noted that $906 is still very high though.
I do think guys chilling on unemployment plays into the supply issues, but that is over in a couple months.
Edit: As does the continued Covid issues around the world especially in China. In the US we are in our own little bubble for awhile being we are so far ahead in terms of the administration of effective vaccines.
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Which backs up Powell's decision.
Though doesn't look good for the continued enhanced unemployment.
1)Bitcoin is way off it's highs so I'm not sure which direction that trend is heading.
2)Do you think stocks continue to inflate?
Value low on the big board as of now:
Morningstar Market Dashboard (love the Barometer)
Followed you into NFLX. Also got back in on AMZN, though I did leave a couple % points on the table.
Bought BAC
And another board recommendation OCGN, where like the NFLX, the chart is saying good time to buy, so I did. Though I don't think the support is as strong here, but the upside is potentially much higher.
1. Bitcoin is super volatile so being off its highs isn't that surprising. My point is ctypto's in general. Massive market cap created out of nowhere. That's inflation.
2. As long as they keep printing money and the market thinks the Fed has things under control, yes it will continue to inflate. The money has to go somewhere.
I think our time frame is very different. You are looking at in months, I am looking at in years. In the short run I agree with what you are saying.
I'm actually thinking the inflation short term is here, but longer term it will abate.
Check this out if you are interested in a different outlook:
I never heard of him before but he makes some interesting points.
URNM popped down today, but it is a volatile play. It will be back up just as quickly.
Today’s a nice day especially for AMZN getting close to 3,500. I think it will break the new high in a few weeks.
FMV = $4200
Keep it rolling! AMZN is my top stock holding (directly and via funds/ETFs).
The money supply is increasing 30% year over year. Where exactly is that potential spending going to transit to?
Being heavy in both energy and materials I had a rough day.
People said the same in 2013. Pretty similar increase in the money supply.The money supply is increasing 30% year over year. Where exactly is that potential spending going to transit to?
My account with the energy plays was still up 0.40% thanks to FDGRX, IGM, and SOXX. Should have been a lot better!
My point is more that I wouldn't be shocked if we will see a deflationary period soon. My company built up a 1 year supply of gloves because they are critical to our business. And now that covid is "coming to an end" and this concept of sanitary theater is coming to an end that 1 year supply will now equal 3 years. Still need them, and still critical. But if this happens in all things, in all segments, you will see deflation when everyone is looking to liquidate. These shockwaves have ripple effects
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Yup you nailed it... Nobody wants to be caught with their pants down but once everyone stocks up, the correction happens.
IIRC, wkhs lost a government contract for electric post office vehicles and tumbled, thus all of the shorts
Yup the deal went to OSK.
But ya know, we are in the meme world so stories like that are whatever. Short interest and WSB mentions are the fundies worth noting.
For 20 years, China has been absorbing money supply inflation. That's why prices stayed stable on everything that fits in a container ship, namely everything but food, energy, health care, & education. Unfortunately, the previous administration critically injured the manufacturing relationship with China, and expectedly, it is playing out 18 months later with shortages and empty shelves.
But again, I'm sure it's transitory. If we all wear a mask and shelter in place for two weeks, I'm sure prices will drop.
I'd say China critically injured it's manufacturing relationship with the US over the last 20-25 years via theft of technology.
BTW, it's quiet on this thread this morning. Something happening?
I think the industrial and cyclical stocks have been down this week due to interest rate. Glad I mostly stick with the tech stocks.
According to Cramer, this a seasonal trend and should dip around 5% or so next week. DOW down 3.8% already. He indicate it’s a buying opportunity for some cyclicals.
Goldman Sachs teaming up with Galaxy Digital on crypto plays:
Oooph, such a bad take. You think the admin had anything to do with the supply chain issues? My life is supply chain. This is what happens when the global economy pumps the brakes, then says just kidding and hits the gas. On top of this, every company on earth is saying let's stock up on what we can do that were not impacted.
It's TP and paper Towels playing out on a global macro level
Industrial and cyclical had been outperforming tech for months though. And really they were due for a pullback.
I think the bull case for the likes of GM and F is still very sound. Same for FCX. Same for DHI.
But is the pullback over? Maybe not. Will cyclical and industrial outperform tech in the next 6 months? Maybe.
I didn't find it all that interesting. No where in that article does he provide a simple test. He does propose a hypothetical centered around the idea that deflation will be due to the stock and housing markets collapsing 30%. That is what will provide the deflationary pressure. Not an increase in supply of materials. Not efficiency driving technology.
Inflation is just transitory: