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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
9,161
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Looking at AMZN's 5 year chart.

From beginning of 2017 to the highs in Aug 2018, AMZN's stock price went from just under $800 to just about $2100. 150% in 20 months.

It was then flat, for about 18 months, trading just below those Aug 18th highs till about Feb 2020, where it looked to be breaking out just prior to the covid dip.

It dipped, but then took off from March until August, 6 months, where it hit a high somewhere just above $3400.

Since then, so about 12 months, it has been trading in a range somewhere between $3000 and $3700, and currently trades right at $3300.

Now that post covid 70% run was an expediated movement, and the current trading range of 12 months is shorter then the 18 range it was stuck in from Aug 2018 to feb 2020, but it does look like it is following a similar path now as it did then, building a long base after a big run.
 
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R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,660
9,161
113
Now that I've realized that I can roll calls, I'm going to be more aggressive and write near term calls just out of the money.

If the stock rises above the strike I'll just roll that call to a later date.

The past couple weeks I've been selling Sofi calls with an $18 strike, a week out, because my position is bigger then I wanted and viewed that as a good price to sell part of that position, and if it hit, so be it. But I just sold $16.50 calls that expire next week. Much better premium, and like I said if it shoots past the strike, I'll roll to a later date.
 
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J

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,100
12,261
82
RU-05 said:
Now that I've realized that I can roll calls, I'm going to be more aggressive and write near term calls just out of the money.

If the stock rises above the strike I'll just roll that call to a later date.

The past couple weeks I've been selling Sofi calls with an $18 strike, a week out, because my position is bigger then I wanted and viewed that as a good price to sell part of that position, and if it hit, so be it. But I just sold $16.50 calls that expire next week. Much better premium, and like I said if it shoots past the strike, I'll roll to a later date.
Click to expand...
Writing cover calls is like kissing your sister. Limited upside and doesn’t protect downside.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,248
19,252
113
Jobs numbers today are not going to cut it for the "interest rates are going up soon" crew. Not looking good.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,665
3,335
113
Transitory inflation BS! Ordered a dozen Buffalo Wings at Tito’s in Motown and they were the size of hummingbird wings and cost me $21. That’s like $1.75 per wing! Then spent $80 to fill up my X5. Cleaning lady and landscaper recently jacked up prices too. It’s ugly.
 
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RUBlackout

All-American
Mar 11, 2008
10,745
6,672
113
RUAldo said:
Transitory inflation BS! Ordered a dozen Buffalo Wings at Tito’s in Motown and they were the size of hummingbird wings and cost me $21. That’s like $1.75 per wing! Then spent $80 to fill up my X5. Cleaning lady and landscaper recently jacked up prices too. It’s ugly.
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Driving an X5 - sounds like rich people problems
 
R

rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,247
2,200
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SOFI tearing it up today after a bunch of upgrades. Like I said, the down slide is to allow institutional buyers to come in at a low price and then upgrade the stock. My hunch is that HOOD is next. ~$37-40 should be a low and buying point.
 
RUTGERS95

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,603
40,814
113
T2Kplus20 said:
Interesting thoughts on small caps:

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they scare me right now as do most tech stocks. Inflation is real and it's growing and commodity prices show no sign of slowing down. Not to mention, the supply chain issues and all those goods parked off ports with no means to move only means that demand for fuel and the like coupled with less supply is only going to drive costs.

I said months ago, O&G and rate sensitive plays should make up the largest portion of your portfolios.

Have been playing a few bio plays
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,248
19,252
113
RUTGERS95 said:
they scare me right now as do most tech stocks. Inflation is real and it's growing and commodity prices show no sign of slowing down. Not to mention, the supply chain issues and all those goods parked off ports with no means to move only means that demand for fuel and the like coupled with less supply is only going to drive costs.

I said months ago, O&G and rate sensitive plays should make up the largest portion of your portfolios.

Have been playing a few bio plays
Click to expand...
I have no long-term fear with tech and will keep my allocation steady. I have a long time horizon and tech is crushing revenue and earnings. Sure, the sector may drop a bit, but I'm not going to try to time the market. Rather, I will buy the dip as needed (got plenty of cash ready to go!).

Bio and pharma are poised for some big gains. My play is PRHSX and has been since 2005. Individual bio and pharma stocks are a tough game. Clinical trials and FDA decisions are truly impossible to predict. The only industry stock I am invested in is my own company via stock options and LTI/RSU awards.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,248
19,252
113
RUTGERS95 said:
they scare me right now as do most tech stocks. Inflation is real and it's growing and commodity prices show no sign of slowing down. Not to mention, the supply chain issues and all those goods parked off ports with no means to move only means that demand for fuel and the like coupled with less supply is only going to drive costs.

I said months ago, O&G and rate sensitive plays should make up the largest portion of your portfolios.

Have been playing a few bio plays
Click to expand...
By the way, I made a nice amount of a few oil/energy plays. With oil hitting $80, do you think this is the peak? Time to bail and take profit?
 
Blitz8RU

Blitz8RU

All-Conference
Jan 24, 2012
77,393
4,170
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T2Kplus20 said:
By the way, I made a nice amount of a few oil/energy plays. With oil hitting $80, do you think this is the peak? Time to bail and take profit?
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maybe in the short term as people take profits (pull back) but as the economy continues to open up next year, oil/energy will keep going higher imo.
 
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R

RUDead

All-Conference
Sep 20, 2017
3,655
3,840
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Blitz8RUCrazy said:
maybe in the short term as people take profits (pull back) but as the economy continues to open up next year, oil/energy will keep going higher imo.
Click to expand...

Supply/demand issues in energy tend to be self correcting, but since this appears to be an structural/inflation issue it could continue to go higher. Obviously a big drop in demand could change that.
 
T

toby83

All-Conference
Dec 23, 2014
4,095
3,822
0
man i am going to get suckered into AT&T

been some nice bounces in past five years when down here
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,665
3,335
113
toby83 said:
man i am going to get suckered into AT&T

been some nice bounces in past five years when down here
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Hard to think it could get any worse at these levels. Still generates a ton of cash and divestitures will help balance sheet.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,248
19,252
113
ARK Invest webinar this afternoon. One tidbit on TSLA:

China overall car sales down 17% in Sept
TSLA sales in China up 51% in Sept

Sorry haters.
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,665
3,335
113
T2Kplus20 said:
ARK Invest webinar this afternoon. One tidbit on TSLA:

China overall car sales down 17% in Sept
TSLA sales in China up 51% in Sept

Sorry haters.
Click to expand...
The only number that matters is overall EV sales in China in Sept. What is it? Overall car sales is irrelevant when it comes to the EV discussion.
 
J

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,100
12,261
82
mdk01 said:
Google buying the space they're already leasing at today's intertest rates makes sense. What doesn't is taking new space with the increase of remote work. Or do the youngsters still want to live in Manhattan and the thrill of the remote is fading?
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Go to the village or meatpacking and you’ll get your answer.
 
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