Established tech will be a leader due to earnings and performance (including semis). Also, 2022 should be a good year for financials due to increasing rates. I bet health care will be strong too.
Spec tech will likely lag.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Spec tech will likely lag.
Interesting info being reported. Data coming from sewer samples (yuck) suggest that omicron is already the dominant variant in central Florida. However, hospitalizations are flat and almost exclusively delta.
If true, omicron is relatively weak, perhaps a major step to COVID becoming cold or flu-like.
Yeah, sounds like omicron transmission rate off the charts but doesn’t pack the same punch as Delta.
Gotta love C-Dub. She pumps Tesla with $3,000 PT and then proceeds to reduce the weight to below 7.75% from somewhere in the 10%+ range. Can’t make this **** up.
If only I weren't batting below .200 this year(well since March).
But that's baseball for ya.
Current P/E of 7x. T's P/E in the 2 year period prior to the covid dip ranged from 8x to 11x. 2022 eps expected to be $3.20. Put just a 9x multiple on that and your talking a $28.80. 10x multiple gets you to $32.
It was severely punished for the dividend cut announcement. If that flogging is done, we should see the tide turn back.
It definitely does, but I'd be a little wary of that as we know hospitlaizations and deaths lag by a couple weeks.
Still if Omicron is a weaker strain, (and weakening in virus mutations is normal), and we have so many vaccinated, as well as those that have already had covid, we should expect this to have less serious effects.
This is the reasonable, rational road that we by all accounts should be taking. Fingers crossed that it happens but I’m not confident. At worst I’m hoping for a quick bumpy ride for a few weeks
They were talking about this call on CNBC yesterday.
Conditions are ripe apparently.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3781404-short-squeeze-likely-into-end-of-the-year-jp-morgans-kolanovic
Conditions are ripe apparently.
- "For short-selling campaigns to succeed, there have to be positioning, liquidity and often systematic amplifiers of the selloff," he says. "We believe these conditions are not met, and hence this market episode may end up in a short squeeze and cyclical rally into year-end and January."
Yesterday was a classic COVID market day. Value down, stay home stocks up. TDOC was up over 10%. Whatever happens with omicron, it looks like it comes and goes very quickly.
She'll almost certainly buy more if it dips. She's an active manager. I'd say very active but I literally have no clue as to what is normal.
But that’s the issue - from what I’ve read she’s selling Tesla on pops and drops. When a well-known fund manager goes all over media saying Tesla to $3000 and then proceeds to reduce her fund’s position from 10%+ to 7%+, that’s shady as hell regardless of whether she’s an active manager or not. I don’t know how these clowns get away with it.
I’m thinking Clorox could be a better trade over the next few weeks than some of the usual lock-down plays.
Maybe the lock-downs are a good short-term trade for a week or two, but not an extended play like thru most of 2020 and some of 2021.
Santa Rally!
Regarding T, not sure if this is good or bad from your POV:
I like Cramer, so I'm not auto contrarian to his calls.
But again, on a historical basis it's levels are so low, from share price, to P/E, that it's a pretty easy call right now. A measely 10x P/E would give you 33% upside from here. Plus the dividend. Plus the spinoff. I don't see it as a long term hold, but I think it's a good trade right now. Take advantage of the dividend cut overreaction.
All AT&T management needed to do is personally buy a few shares, start throwing buzz words like 5G network metaverse around, clarify the WM/Disco deal, and it would be 30% higher.
Santa Rally!
Regarding T, not sure if this is good or bad from your POV:
Also interesting from that segment was the last stock mentioned.
CAMT. Semiconductor company with 1.8B market cap. As the caller pointed out, the company makes money and has seen great growth both in terms of rev's and earnings in the past year. The run in the stock price has been great, and the P/E looks amazing considering recent growth and the stock price run.
But 2022 expected growth does look to level off. Now they could beat, as they did by 10% over the last 4 qtr's, or it could be a level off after a great run, setting up for the next leg of the run. Still the growth the caller noted does not look to continue yoy into 2022.
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Interesting company, looks pretty good for a long play. It's not in SOXX, but I will put it on my watch list.
Not to lead this too far into Covid talk. But approaching 3 weeks into their cases spike, South Africa has shown zero uptick in deaths thus far, and it kind of looks like cases may be peaking right here.
I think they will definitely see an uptick in deaths, the case #'s are just too high(most of them being more recent) for them not to, but the fact that there has been so little deaths to this point is very encouraging.
In the US we are seeing an uptick in deaths, but as Scott Gotleib has noted this is likely due to the Delta variant finally getting into the northeast and upper midwest.
I think they will definitely see an uptick in deaths, the case #'s are just too high(most of them being more recent) for them not to, but the fact that there has been so little deaths to this point is very encouraging.
In the US we are seeing an uptick in deaths, but as Scott Gotleib has noted this is likely due to the Delta variant finally getting into the northeast and upper midwest.
From what I’ve read on Omicron, the hospitals are overwhelmed but people aren’t dying like they were with other variants.
With the YouTube TV Disney thread and the talk of Warner/Discovery figure this is appropriate.
My bet is on Apple buying WM/Disco. The WM studio is a quick hop away from Apple HQ. Apparently, the new soon to be WM/Disco CEO is in the process of renovating a mansion near the studio in anticipation of his move. It would give Apple a serious content library and talent. They just need AT&T to do the dirty work and get out of the picture.
Bob Iger coming back to WD is very interesting. This is more about Bob Chapek absolutely crashing and burning. The Disney public (i.e., customers and fans) hate him. He has been avoiding public events since he would get boo'ed out of the building. Whether this hatred is deserved or not may be water under the bridge. You can't have a WD CEO this disliked by customers.
Something needs to change, whether Chapek having a big change or getting dumped.
And we’re off to the races boys! Monday should be interesting lol
And that's the other part of the equation. Whether Omicron proves to be more or less severe, if economies are restricted, it's going to effect the market.
Yea I’ve seen you mention that and I’m not saying it couldn’t happen but Apple and Cook don’t really show much ambition for big deals. There was a time they probably could’ve bought Netflix but they didn’t move on it. Their biggest deal is like Beats for 3 billion (overpaid imo) so never an acquisition of any large scale. It would be a first for them.
Must be getting really bad. Figured Biden would be using up the rest of his vacation days the next two weeks:
Agree, but there is no way to gain scale in content unless they go big. Takes too long to develop their own library as they’ve learned with AppleTV. Smaller studios won’t move the needle for Apple. But, I’m merely speculating.
Well everything is speculating in one form or another. You’re right to really move the needle they’re better off acquiring something built instead of doing it themselves where there’s a learning curve and cost and time associated with it.
Feel like Amazon (MGM acquisition) is the bolder company (see Whole Foods and acquiring NFL rights) as well. FB and Google maybe after them and then Apple last.
Its ironic that Apple was the king of innovation and is now considered cautious and conservative.
I don't really know their history, but I often hear that they aren't especially innovative, but when they jump into something, they make it the best.
Well, they did buy the mouse from Xerox but I would consider the iPhone, iPad, and iPod revolutionary.
The WH REALLY needs to evaluate if this press conference is going to be productive or just make everything 1000x worse.
Was looking at Viac, thinking maybe it was a similar play as T.
But I don't think the similarities are there.
For one, T has a $20 support level that dates back to the 90's.
Viac is currently $29.50, but was down near $12 in the covid dip. Was down near $4 in 2009, and below $20 in 2005. So it doesn't appear to have any help in the form of technical support.
2ndly, while Viac is super cheap at 8ishx p/e, that is pretty much the multipe it traded at precovid. T traded consistently at a higher multiple then it currently does.
Now both had recent events which undercut the stock, the dividend cut announcement for T, the evergrande situation for Viac, but T looks to have catalysts lined up to break the current downward trend in the form of the spinoff, and also the official dividend announcement, a buy the news event perhaps. Not to mention the recent analyst upgrade.
And while we will need to see where T ends up in terms of it's dividend. It's currently at 9%. Maybe they cut it in half to 4.5%. That's better then Viac which is currently 3.23%.
Very possible there could be a Viac catalyst which breaks it's downward trend. Perhaps it gets an analyst upgrade itself. Perhaps it gets bought out for it's content. But those are cross your fingers events at the moment.
But I don't think the similarities are there.
For one, T has a $20 support level that dates back to the 90's.
Viac is currently $29.50, but was down near $12 in the covid dip. Was down near $4 in 2009, and below $20 in 2005. So it doesn't appear to have any help in the form of technical support.
2ndly, while Viac is super cheap at 8ishx p/e, that is pretty much the multipe it traded at precovid. T traded consistently at a higher multiple then it currently does.
Now both had recent events which undercut the stock, the dividend cut announcement for T, the evergrande situation for Viac, but T looks to have catalysts lined up to break the current downward trend in the form of the spinoff, and also the official dividend announcement, a buy the news event perhaps. Not to mention the recent analyst upgrade.
And while we will need to see where T ends up in terms of it's dividend. It's currently at 9%. Maybe they cut it in half to 4.5%. That's better then Viac which is currently 3.23%.
Very possible there could be a Viac catalyst which breaks it's downward trend. Perhaps it gets an analyst upgrade itself. Perhaps it gets bought out for it's content. But those are cross your fingers events at the moment.
I think the iPhone was the first smart phone (merging computer capabilities with a cell phone).
Had to google it myself, but:
IBM in 1992 beat Apple by 15 years.