Santa, Santa, Santa! (for all expect many of the spec stocks, not a bad thing).
Last edited:
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Dave, Microsoft went public in March 1986 but I agree with your point that many felt it peaked a long time ago. I’ve held it since the late ‘80s.
I believe I was living in Seattle in the mid 80’s and Microsoft was a huge company and had a huge facility back then and the operating system MS DOS was out for many years already. Funny, I was working for a joint venture of Westinghouse/ Viacom at the beginning of cable sales, when it was hard to get anyone to advertise on cable. I was there like the beginning of time. Hardly anyone knew of ESPN or MTV at the time.
Last edited:
Tom Lee - stick with big tech in 2022:
.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyP3KK-M8I8&list=WL&index=1
Preview not working, cut and paste without the "....."
For big tech, continuation of massive earnings and a growing economy. He's saying there can be softness and perhaps a dip in H1 due to the Fed, but H2 will be strong as inflation begins to subside. Double digit growth year for 2022.
Good chart showing how ARKK has given up all its previous outperformance.
Jan-Patrick Barnert
Jan-Patrick Barnert
Good 3-year chart. Via Morningstar, 3-year return on $10k invested:Good chart showing how ARKK has given up all its previous outperformance.
Jan-Patrick Barnert
ARKK +17,491.16 | +174.91% QQQ +16,886.10 | +168.86%
Still up on the 5-year chart due to a very strong 2017:
ARKK +40,751.45 | +407.51% QQQ +24,662.54 | +246.63%
There is definitely different dynamics going on (and have been for the past 3-6 months). Tech that is making money and established are rocking it. However, spec plays continue to be flat or lose ground (not making profit or not even selling yet). I assume this will stay the same in early 2022.Good chart showing how ARKK has given up all its previous outperformance.
Jan-Patrick Barnert
Big question, any good buys in the later category yet?
Vs the Nasdaq100. Still very solid outperformance vs the S&P.Good chart showing how ARKK has given up all its previous outperformance.
Jan-Patrick Barnert
Speaking of the S&P. I am literally neck and neck with it for YTD results. I checked over the weekend and was within 0.3%. Yesterday was a great day, but the S&P matched the Daq. If I beat it this year it will be all due to SOXX (over +50% YTD)!
We shall see. I assume that I will come up a little short.
Someone on CNBC talked about how hard and awful it was to pick individual stocks this year, but indexes were crushing it. Weird, but true. Once again, building wealth is about slow and steady. Perhaps you should consider splitting your portfolio into ETFs and stocks? If you have a 401k at work, this may be unnecessary.
I have no idea. BABA seems to have been a buy 4 or 5 times already! The Chinese gov is really crushing its economy for some reason.
Mean reversion at its finest. A fund can’t have outsized returns over the long run.Good chart showing how ARKK has given up all its previous outperformance.
Jan-Patrick Barnert
Nah, I just went too heavy in specs (or better put stayed to long), made some bad trades, and in a combo of each dabbled poorly in the options game.
Learning lessons, but I was willing to do so giving my run prior to March.
But no more messing around from here.
Actually just checked, .18% behind the S&P ytd.
Not a bad YTD! Lots of great stocks and buying opportunities, if you are willing to hold for a bit.
FYI, I don't understand options in any way and won't bother learning. LOL!
You're generally correct but if you're old enough to remember, Peter Lynch's Fidelity Magellan fund outperformed the market for many years and was arguably the best performing mutual fund ever for a prolonged timeframe.
Peter Lynch, the man, myth, and legend!
TIMESTAMPS
0:16 Average people can win in stocks
1:17 Don’t own a stock you can’t explain
4:17 Simple math behind picking stocks
4:53 Don’t even bother predicting stocks
7:10 Studying history is important when picking stocks
8:40 DON'T rush to buy a stock
10:07 Figure out your "edge" to win in the stock market
13:21 Don’t be fooled by a declining stock price
15:29 Why people panic sell stocks
16:38 Penny stocks still have risk
18:08 Don’t get too attached to a stock
18:50 Avoid Long-shot Stocks
19:45 There is always something to worry about when in stocks
22:19 Use your stomach, not your brain in the stock market
22:57 Do you pay attention to congress when making decisions in the market?
24:22 How useful is financial reporting in the press?
26:29 Why Lynch LOVES Volatility
28:37 Lynch’s story on when his fund lost 4 billion
31:10 Lynch Flips a Coin to Predict the Market
31:23 Where should you put 1k a year when investing for the long term?
34:28 Lynch gives his market favorites
36:44 The power of business in America
38:03 Why the banking system is underrated
38:46 Should you be worried about banks selling mutual funds?
41:56 Government should be weary of getting involved in governance of company
43:44 Public should have more resources for stocks
44:18 How do you view Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stock?
46:39 I listen to my daughter for stock tips
I’m not that old but the keyword in my post is outsized. A fund can beat the market consistently to a degree. But if your fund beats it by multiples you have to take profit and say thank you.
I'm not well versed by any means, but if you sell covered calls in a very conservative manner(ie significantly above the current price) you can tack a percent or two onto your returns without too much risk of having the stock called away(which under this scenario would be at a good price).
I'm not that conservative when selling options, but I do see that potential.
She will never find enough outperforming stocks at the size of the fund. Until she right sizes the fund, she will continue to underperform.
I was lucky to get out of Chinese stocks when I did (small loss) and I don’t think I’ll ever buy any again, no matter how cheap they appear to be. As far as I’m concerned the Chinese Gov’t basically makes every Chinese stock un-investable.
NLY. 10% dividend, with an ex-date on Thursday.
Trading below it's pre covid levels in terms of both it's stock price and it's P/E.
Absolutely a value trap, the stock has been on a downward trend since 2002, down about 60% since that time, earnings have been and are expected to remain flat, but you could buy it here and hold it for 3 months and get 5% dividend return, or 6 months for 7.5%.
Doesn't have quite the support, or the upside of T, but a fairly similar story, big dividend, pretty safe in the short term, has some upside. Not a bad place to park some money if you expect a down market in the first half of 2022.
Trading below it's pre covid levels in terms of both it's stock price and it's P/E.
Absolutely a value trap, the stock has been on a downward trend since 2002, down about 60% since that time, earnings have been and are expected to remain flat, but you could buy it here and hold it for 3 months and get 5% dividend return, or 6 months for 7.5%.
Doesn't have quite the support, or the upside of T, but a fairly similar story, big dividend, pretty safe in the short term, has some upside. Not a bad place to park some money if you expect a down market in the first half of 2022.
Last edited:
BWA. Car parts company that looks well positioned for the transition to EV. I originally bought in Jan, up about 11%, and added on the way up in the spring. I'm down 2ish% on that.
P/E of 11, which is a bit higher than it's pre covid levels, but if the growth expectations are to be believed, the higher P/E is well deserved. Significant earnings growth forecast through 2024.
P/E of 11, which is a bit higher than it's pre covid levels, but if the growth expectations are to be believed, the higher P/E is well deserved. Significant earnings growth forecast through 2024.
Just looked at realized gains for the year which made me realize I should harvest more losses.
Cut away a few more junk plays I was clinging to. TLRY, and CRLBF, a couple cannabis, plays being atop that list.
Sofi would be a great one, the bloodiest carcass in my portfolio, but it's sitting right at pretty solid support level.
Cut away a few more junk plays I was clinging to. TLRY, and CRLBF, a couple cannabis, plays being atop that list.
Sofi would be a great one, the bloodiest carcass in my portfolio, but it's sitting right at pretty solid support level.
I’m sticking with SoFi because I like the CEO. But I feel like I got screwed by Chamath because it went from $23 to $15 shortly after he started selling.
That guy is scum. I did sell all of my shares WAP of 22. Bought it all back at WAP of 15.4.
I'll be creating a low-vol dividend focused portfolio once those 2 CDs mature next week (yesterday posts). I may throw in a few dividend stocks for fun.
Also, with the S&P beating the Daq again, it's probably a done deal that my entire 2021 returns won't beat it. I will come up a little short!
True. My stocks are in a non-taxable account, so it doesn't matter much to me. And I mostly hold anyway!
I’ve always had that opinion even before Xi decided to become another Putin. Haven’t ever put a dime into any Chinese stock. Parents came from a country similar and I have distrust for governments like that. One second everything seems fine next second it’s lower the boom.
I never got the impression Noto was scum? West Point (Army Ranger School), Wharton, positions with Goldman, Twitter, NFL. I’ve seen him speak and sounded way more qualified than other execs. Why don’t you like him?