OT: Stock and Investment Thread

Dec 17, 2008
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Stock is down in pre-market. Im not sure what investors were looking for. Dividend will still be in the 6% range and shareholders pick-up Disc/WM shares. Im interested in seeing where this stock ultimately lands.
I usually assume sell the news.

I'm inclined to hold both stocks after the spin off for now. If I had to choose I probably would have gone with WMD which isn't like me cause I like divy stocks but not a fan of the ATT CEO.
 
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
16,774
0
Stock is down in pre-market. Im not sure what investors were looking for. Dividend will still be in the 6% range and shareholders pick-up Disc/WM shares. Im interested in seeing where this stock ultimately lands.
BTW just a correction as I didn't bother to check when you first posted. Divy yield would be about 4.6% based on today's premarket of 24. 1.11 is the dividend.

EDIT: Heard some more details on the ATT spinoff. Discovery will be adding 1.7B new shares on top of the 700M shares currently so share dilution there. ATT they said some might have been expecting split or combo split/spin but it would have been the biggest ever and complex. That could have reduced ATT share count by a bit, so that's not happening anytime soon. Earliest for "potential" share buybacks by ATT would be end of 2023.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500....

Current: 37.31 +0.69 (1.89%)
4:00 PM EST, Mon Jan 31
Mean:16.91
Median:15.86
Min:4.78(Dec 1920)
Max:44.19(Dec 1999)
Throw those historical averages. The big 5 deserve higher multiples and a bunch of others. Apples and oranges now. Better to use PEG.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
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Throw those historical averages. The big 5 deserve higher multiples and a bunch of others. Apples and oranges now. Better to use PEG.
I agree the PE ratio need to come down but they already have drastically cut the Tech PE and may have overdone it. The industrials and other sectors need to be readjusted. Basically, what everyone is now saying, Techs goes up and S&P goes down. Need to be stock pickers instead of using the averages.
 
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T2Kplus20

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I agree the PE ratio need to come down but they already have drastically cut the Tech PE and may have overdone it. The industrials and other sectors need to be readjusted. Basically, what everyone is now saying, Techs goes up and S&P goes down. Need to be stock pickers instead of using the averages.
All true, but he S&P 500 index has been a very good bet over the past several years. It is essentially a tech index now. 26-27% of the index are the big 5 plus NVDA and TSLA.
 
Dec 17, 2008
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Was 22 its recent bottom?
Yes and then it rallied hard up to the 200DMA around 27, also stiffer resistance up there. It came down after the CEO interview and news on spinoff to that 24 area where I said there could be some support (I picked up some at 23.65). Rallied again back up to mid 25s and now down today on further details on the spinoff to that 24 support area again.

I don't think much of ATT and the CEO. It's kind of an eh stock to me but it's got a divy and they should have the cash flow to support it. Divy is about 40% of cash flow (8B of 20B expected). Divy is about in line with VZ which is about 4.8%. Not confident in dividend growth though but we'll see. It's tradable and has the safety of the dividend behind it for me.

Mind you rates rising could always affect divy yielding stocks too in general but they'd have to rise a bit.
 

T2Kplus20

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Yes and then it rallied hard up to the 200DMA around 27, also stiffer resistance up there. It came down after the CEO interview and news on spinoff to that 24 area where I said there could be some support (I picked up some at 23.65). Rallied again back up to mid 25s and now down today on further details on the spinoff to that 24 support area again.

I don't think much of ATT and the CEO. It's kind of an eh stock to me but it's got a divy and they should have the cash flow to support it. Divy is about 40% of cash flow (8B of 20B expected). Divy is about in line with VZ which is about 4.8%. Not confident in dividend growth though but we'll see. It's tradable and has the safety of the dividend behind it for me.

Mind you rates rising could always affect divy yielding stocks too in general but they'd have to rise a bit.
I have some exposure to div stocks, but just via VIG. Lots of value traps in the this area.
 

Jackson206:)

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Sep 29, 2006
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Stock is down in pre-market. Im not sure what investors were looking for. Dividend will still be in the 6% range and shareholders pick-up Disc/WM shares. Im interested in seeing where this stock ultimately lands.
It’s called the Stankey Syndrome - every time he opens his mouth the stock tanks. How he still has the job is baffling. The Board is negligent keeping him around.
 
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Dec 17, 2008
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PYPL still showing strength into earnings. Thought V/MA earnings might have helped buoy it forward. With the strong rally though, I wonder if it might not sell off on earnings unless the earnings and guidance are good.
 

RUschool

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Jan 23, 2004
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What % of your assets are in the market? if you truly believe the crash will happen shortly, I would assume you have a substantial % in cash. If you are truly convinced, you would sell your long term stock investments and wouldn’t say you would be able to ride the 10-15 years for the market to recover.

I try to be in cash as much as possible and I‘m still 47% in cash after my recent purchases. I consider the recent stocks purchases value stock due to their PE and their ability to grow into their PE in 1-2 years. The stocks with no earnings deserve to fall substantially as well as other stocks with high PE.

None of the gurus that I follow have indicated anything more than a correction. I agree there will be a crash but don’t sense it‘s imminent.
 
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RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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T tanking again, cuts dividend in half (which seems to match expectations):

Blows my mind that T can’t articulate to investors that TMO offers zero dividend and even after the cut it will still be higher than VZ’s dividend and one of the highest dividend payers around. Also, keep in mind T dividend payment was rec’d today which can cause selling pressure similar to ex-div.
 
Dec 17, 2008
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Blows my mind that T can’t articulate to investors that TMO offers zero dividend and even after the cut it will still be higher than VZ’s dividend and one of the highest dividend payers around. Also, keep in mind T dividend payment was rec’d today which can cause selling pressure similar to ex-div.
I think the fact that it hasn't broken 24 area is a good sign. They need to show prospects for some growth and reduction of debt to make it really go up. Can't imagine it would break much out of this range 've mentioned until they do that. Besides the CEO, the amount of debt was always a big issue for me. I don't know that they have any prospects for growth in the near term. It's probably an okay place to park some money for a bit. Even as a dividend stock, reduction of debt and earnings growth are important to buoy dividend growth and those prospects seem eh to me in the present.

I should sort of correct my correction above lol. You're right I wasn't even thinking. Like duh the Warner value will have to come out from ATT at the spinoff and that will equate to 6 bucks a share or so. So 1.11 on 18 bucks or so will be about 6%. Mind you 8% yield didn't have investors flocking to it, so can't say that a 6% one will be that much more attractive albeit probably more secure and supported by cash flow.
 
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RUinPinehurst

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What % of your assets are in the market? if you truly believe the crash will happen shortly, I would assume you have a substantial % in cash. If you are truly convinced, you would sell your long term stock investments and wouldn’t say you would be able to ride the 10-15 years for the market to recover.

I try to be in cash as much as possible and I‘m still 47% in cash after my recent purchases. I consider the recent stocks purchases value stock due to their PE and their ability to grow into their PE in 1-2 years. The stocks with no earnings deserve to fall substantially as well as other stocks with high PE.

None of the gurus that I follow have indicated anything more than a correction. I agree there will be a crash but don’t sense it‘s imminent.
I'm retired. My portfolio is very diversified. US equities are approx 10% and are large, solid earners in all-weather sectors.

We're in perfect-storm conditions. Hard to see anything other than instability ahead for an extended period. High valuations. High debt. Pandemic lingering. Supply chain woes. High inflation. A Fed that has avoided the inevitable and likely waited too late to cut back on QE and raise rates. Recession likely ahead. Add our domestic political and social division. Russia's posturing. And China assuming more of a role on the world stage.

A 40% adjustment in the overall US market this year would not be too surprising. A recovery after that may be very slow in coming.
 
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T2Kplus20

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A 40% adjustment in the overall US market this year would not be too surprising. A recovery after that may be very slow in coming.
 

T2Kplus20

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20:1 stock split Nothing special about it besides psychology but might make it more accessible to the average retail guy.
Absolutely psych, but look what happened with TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, etc. Great time to announce the split (after crushing earnings again!).

My #2 holding. :)
 

RUAldo

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Sep 11, 2008
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SBUX getting hit hard which isn’t a surprise because in the last two months I’ve seen store closures, short staff, product shortages, etc. Anyone have thoughts on when to finally buy?
 
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T2Kplus20

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AMD rocks it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Beat on rev and earnings. HUGE beat on operating margin. HUGE 15% beat on forecast.

Damn. I need to buy more SOXX.
 
Dec 17, 2008
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PYPL misses (slightly). Buying opp on the dip?
Now you see why I'm always willing to take some profit and sold some at 170. 155 area has been support. It broke through it intraday on that woosh day but retook it the same day and then bounced off it a few times.

I think it had a nice run up after due to Visa/Mastercard earnings. That's why I was wondering above if it might sell hard if anything is amiss.

I'd hold up and see if the 155 area holds through this. 120s is where I'd examine it again after that.
 

T2Kplus20

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I’m avoiding that whole space but then again I’m down in PYPL and SQ so I’m pissed. I can’t make sense of FinTech.
I'm still thrilled with AMD's performance. Bodes well for all semis. I'm still huge in this sector with SOXX. Also bought a bunch of NDVA during the recent dips.