I’ve looked at URTY but can’t make heads or tails of the holdings and didn’t like that AMC is one of them. In general, I’m staying away from small cap for now because they tend to do poorly in an inflationary environment. I like medical devices as a re-opening play. Also looking at the defense sector like LMT. I liked the ANB quarter as well - could be the next to join Big Tech in a few years.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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URTY is a 3x leverage of the Russell 2000 (so broad small cap holdings). Unlike TQQQ and UPRO, this would be a reasonably short play. Looking to buy around $67-68. Sell once it goes back to the previous high. Nice doubling of the money.
Small caps get hit first in a downturn, but recover first on the rally.
Putin loves the attention. Likely just a spotlight moment and will have no impact on his ambition of taking Ukraine. Further, his meeting with Biden and then moving forward with an invasion will only lead to further division here, politically. Another "useful idiot" manuever by the old case officer?
All probably a big dog and pony show to get concessions or whatever Putin wants. Hysterical to see so many scared people freaking out over this. LOL!
What’s odd is that I don’t recall the US ever sharing intel openly with the public like Biden has been. Must be a new strategy. Or perhaps JoeB keeps forgetting that the intel is supposed to be confidential.
The United States and the United Kingdom have supplied the world with a steady stream of declassified intelligence exposing possible Russian schemes to attack Ukraine. Washington has released the occasional declassified assessment before, such as its reports on the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi and Russian interference in the 2016 election. But the current quantity, frequency, and depth of classified raw intelligence being revealed is unprecedented.
New strategy by US and UK
Last time US classified intelligence on Russia was disclosed was May 2017
Russia keeps sending mixed signals intentionally through its armed forces chain of command to test for leaks in the apparatus as well as keeping the fog of war tight over the west. This is why we’re on day 6 or 7 of “US Intelligence confident a Russian invasion will commence tomorrow”.
For Russia and Putin, this is far larger than sowing further division in the US.
Russia has considered Ukraine a part of Russia since the 17th century when some ruler in Kyiv swore allegiance to Muscovy. An interesting historical tidbit, but not the driving force for Russia’s actions.
Their actions are motivated by military and economic security. Russia has been invaded by European nations in the past. Don’t think that Russia, and Putin, forgets about Germany and Napoleon before then. Ukraine provides a substantial land buffer between Russia and the west’s sphere of influence in Europe. To the north, Belarus is basically a Russia bloc nation already. Adding a Ukraine to the south provides a substantial buffer, and an important southern buffer.
Ukraine set this course of action in motion when they temporarily prevented Russian gas from moving through Ukrainian pipelines into Europe several years ago. This was a very significant issue for Russia, and led to development of the Nord Stream pipeline into Germany. But these Ukrainian pipelines are significant, and Russia does not want to be at Ukrainian mercy about natural gas exports to Europe. Russia‘s economy is dependent upon hydrocarbons, and a country that Russians consider to be Russian can’t be seen exerting such power,
The Cuban missile crisis didn’t end because of JFK’s hard line with Krushchev. It ended when JFK agreed to pull American missiles from Turkey, and Krushchev agreed to keep that concession secret. Hopefully some agreement along those lines Is reached here as well.
As I mentioned above, I think the US gov is pushing the WW3 scenario and crying wolf so they can try to take credit for Putin not invading or doing much. It's all politics.
+1
This is day 7 of "it's coming very soon". Can't keep crying wolf on this or you start looking scared and weak. This may be all about Ukraine not joining NATO, which the Ukraine leader seems fine with now. Perhaps Putin already got what he wants?
As always, spot on insights, FB. As for the CMC comparison, Putin in this current initiative has committed way too many resources for this to be posturing. He wanted and took Crimea. He wants and will take Ukraine. I hope I'm wrong and that a diplomatic solution will unfold. But I think that's unlikely.
What irks me to no end are these sweeping comments that our supposed best-in-class NatSec "analysts" dole out to no end. Last night the new soundbyte was "US Intelligence convinced the worst case scenario of a full invasion and occupation of Ukraine is now the likeliest outcome". A senior CBS correspondent had even gone so far as to say the order was given directly by Putin himself yesterday evening eastern time.
Does anyone actually think through what they say, or do they just just count vehicles on the latest satellite photo recon and take every SIGINT intercept at face value? Comments like this are much more akin to hot takes than actual intelligence analysis. There's a significant lack of recognition of the classic Russian maskirovka, which in this case would be telegraphing a vague intent to take the whole country while simultaneous pursuing a more metered objective.
A full blown invasion of Ukraine would mark the end of the Russian Federation. Russia doesn't even have the financial means to maintain an invasion of that magnitude for more than 2 weeks, let alone a months-long occupation and fighting a guerilla resistance campaign. Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov, and the gang are all acutely aware of this, and have learned from Afghanistan. The Russian economy would crater worse than after the fall of the USSR and the popular resistance to war at home would be unrelenting.
The more logical route is to take a look at what Russia could achieve while maintaining their current geopolitical stature. This is exactly the calculated analysis Russia performed when they annexed Crimea. Right now that looks like recognizing the independence of the DNR/LPR and integrating them into the Eurasian Union.
+1
Putin is playing western media's addiction to fear porn like a violin. Funny and transparent to all those paying attention.
It's actually a pitfall I see across multiple professions nowadays. Weather forecasting has been hit hard by this as well. Too many analysts simply ingest copious amounts of data without applying coherent analysis on said data. Probably a byproduct of the information age where everyone just regurgitates what they see rather than applying the proper degree of due diligence and critical thinking.
To be fair, most talking heads who are called on by networks to share their insights are basing their input on knowing certain adversaries, their tactics, predispositions, ambitions, etc. as well as action-and-response scenarios from when they were serving in vital roles. All they're missing is current specific intelligence. So I would not categorically dismiss their assessments.
I'm not necessarily dismissing it, there is essentially an invasion force on the border of Ukraine so it's not like the facts of the current troop deployments and positioning are made up or anything.
The missing piece that is glossed over is a logical explanation of why Putin and his administration would voluntarily commit political suicide when there are other routes that could be taken which would allow Russia to maintain their status quo while also achieving geopolitical objectives. The illogical take on this is the assertion Putin is a "madman" or something of that nature. The Institute for the Study of War had been excellent on addressing this all the way up until they changed their tone and predicted Russia would launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine in its entirety this past Saturday simply because the president of Ukraine was attending the Munich security conference. Was a head scratcher call back then, and obviously never came to fruition.
Agreed. There are a ton of "professionals" that don't know their a from their e and do a poor job. However, there are also a ton of folks that play the fear porn game and try to get eyeballs at any cost (the Clickbait culture). This is how success is defined.
Sadly, more and more of the public is falling for this silliness and believe in the worst case scenario for everything everyday. Perhaps this is due to social media or 24/7 news, but there are many more Chicken Littles today than in the past.
"Google" Putin's televised speech from earlier today. Have a look at what he's saying, how he's saying it, in his own words. Go to the primary source.
The adherents of the YOLO movement are a young bunch of diehard optimists believing in a single stock and its future performance, pitching in all the chips they have, while hoping for the best.
The meme phenomenon has spread far and wide beyond the obscure dark and not-so-dark humor online boards into the financial market, with crypto meme coin tickers taking up the precious characters of Tweets posted by some prominent investors like Elon Musk. But it has recently overspilled into the conventional financial industry of Wall Street, taking on the form of the YOLO movement.
This bizarre phenomenon has seen stocks being pumped beyond even the most optimistic prices by online message boards in an almost coordinated tidal wave that swept across the booming market through 2020 and 2021.
With over 80% of investors in YOLO stocks being born in the late 1990s, their overconfidence in continued market growth is staggering, allowing them to take on leverage in the form of credits and debts to start investing in selected stocks. And though there is no actual asset class that could be termed YOLO, it pertains to companies that have posted immense gains and generated headlines during the pandemic lockdown period.
Among the most notable examples over 2020 to 2021 are AMC Entertainment (AMC), which skyrocketed by over 2,000% in just under a year, and GameStop (GME)– up 5,232% in the past year. Others in the league are Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBY) with 328% gains, Blackberry (BB) – 113% year-to-date, and others.
One of my nephews seems like a YOLO buying $100k Tesla stock( now 1.5 million) and Bitcoin as his investment but he always has his future inheritance to back him up.
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Nothing wrong with YOLO'ing a small amount of your money seeking a home run, but betting all is a risky game. I think a lot of younger people with limited resources go YOLO to try to get ahead. Lots of retail investors struck it rich with TSLA and then GME and AMC.
Putin signs decrees recognizing self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics Taking it from Ukraine. Putin was just waited for the Olympics to be over
Specifically just the LPR/DPR at this time which Russia has de-facto controlled since 2014. Only difference is there is no pretense; instead of Russian forces moving around there with no markings or under separatist markings these are Military Police units fully displaying the Russian banner.
Oh, Ukraine should give it to Russia. They been fighting in that area since 2014 with over 10,000 casualties. A couple of years, another section of Ukraine. Bullies don’t stop by themselves.
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It is an invasion. Russian forces crossing its border into Ukraine. This will escalate and expand, quickly.
But, as this is a Stock/Investment thread, let's keep this Russian development in that context. The markets tomorrow? Have to think they'll tank. Pun intended.
And I believe a major refinery (Marathon) in the Gulf coast suffered major damage today (explosion/fire), impacting our domestic oil production.
And I believe a major refinery (Marathon) in the Gulf coast suffered major damage today (explosion/fire), impacting our domestic oil production.
If the invasion was into the two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine the real question is does it ultimately end there? I got the impression those regions were going independent anyway.
Artificial dips don't last long, so you gotta buy aggressively. I wouldn't adjust your long-term target list in any way. What have you been eyeing?
We have clarity on what Russia is doing, so the uncertainty that the market hates is quickly dissipating.
Wait, didn’t some of you say there wouldn’t be an invasion and Putin is just posturing or this is a JB invented crisis? How many times can you buy a dip if the dip continues to dip? I’ll wait for the final dip and wait for signals that the market is regaining its footing
If this is it, essentially Crimea 2.0, it will be a brief market event with no lasting impact. Don't wait and miss out. I'm buying everyday that reduces my CBs. Simple as that.
Focusing on TQQQ and UPRO. Also eyeing URTY and SOXL (looking for these to get back to recent lows).
My fav communist nation expert (3 decades hes been at it) says Putin is helping Joe in polls with a Potemkin Cuban Missile Crisis. Its an option
Also - you're in health field I seem to recall
Scandal looming - NYT trying to get out front
The C.D.C. Isn’t Publishing Large Portions of the Covid Data It Collects
The agency has withheld critical data on boosters, hospitalizations and, until recently, wastewater analyses.