I seldom say such things about companies of AMZN size, but it seems compelling today. Assuming a reasonable to slightly above reasonable valuation for AWS, you aren’t paying a lot for the rest of AMZN.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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I seldom say such things about companies of AMZN size, but it seems compelling today. Assuming a reasonable to slightly above reasonable valuation for AWS, you aren’t paying a lot for the rest of AMZN.
Chamath mentioned that on the All In podcast when it happened. He began selling not long after. I’m hindsight that was certainly a big signal
New ATHs across the board within 12 months as inflation crashes.
I think we’re going to have to start calling you “Euphoric Mr. Market”
In my opinion, sooner Assuming growth continues at this pace and you place a better than average multiple on AWS projected operating earnings. The market price of AMZN today doesn’t ascribe a lot of value to the rest of the business.
Just playing the odds!
Whether it is next month, next year, or later, it always happens. I'm going to hold those 4 leveraged ETFs until we get back to ATHs. Should be an interesting ride.
The pharma industry is using AWS more and more and more in multiple ways. Our demand and reliance on it is growing like crazy.
I just started putting some cash to work again late last week with ABNB and WOLF and in the red already but as much pain as I’m feeling overall it could have been much worse. Those were more spec/momentum plays that I’m now OK holding long. May have jumped the gun there. I also bought some financials recently and only down somewhere around 10% (GS, JPM). Surprisingly, my BGS and CWH buys have been shockingly resilient and offer fat dividends. I also bought ZTS and MTCH (not sure how they ultimately turn out). I’m considering buying more T figuring it’s one of the better safe havens + dividend I can think of.Very crazy. Especially considering the many, many trillions printed into existence!
Hopefully folks listened to the advice you and I were vehemently trying to share in Dec/Jan. Especially about crypto
Everybody’s their own fortune teller, but what matters is getting it right more than wrong. Hats off to you — your predictions have been on point.
Would love to hear your thoughts on what assets/stocks you’re looking at.
I’m just nibbling at more stable companies that nose-drive. But in my mind, with 5 separate asset classes all reaching bubble levels, still a ways to go down even with the occasional rally & inflation.
My barometer for bottom of market is when Costco hits pre-pandemic levels. You know it’s bad as hell if Costco gets there…
If I had the time, I’d love to go back and look at some of the heated debates on this thread. We just witnessed one of the biggest gov’t handouts in history go bust. So much stimulus money has evaporated without a trace. Would love to see how much has been lost through the stock market and crypto. Then you have the businesses that took govt money that didn’t need it. And rent paid by the govt for people that didn’t need it.
Thanks. My wife is seven years younger than I and I’ll likely die first (not to be morbid, just rational). If that happens she’ll get hit with huge taxes from RMDs so for her, and the kids, I’m trying to correct an imbalance where I have much more in tax deferred accounts than Roth or taxable. First world problem I suppose but planning is prudent.
Hmm, right now we are only 1/6th Roth vs. tax-deferred or taxable. Gotta think about this a bit.
Inflation may “stop” due to the base effect, however there are many industries whose business models are not functional at these price points. The pain ain’t over yet unless there is a temporary deflationary event or operating revenues (and by extention, consumer wages) increase.
Yes, I would. I think you both have a good income so it’s tough to convert at that point but if you can contribute to a Roth and have a Roth IRA option do so. And if you retire a bit early in 10 or 15 years that’s a good time to do conversions. I think it’s good. for estate planning if you have kids—my guess is taxes re only going to go up down the road. Lifetime planning—it makes sense irrespective of your individual situation..
Edit: I know you’re planning on a house at Stone Harbor. I think it’s probably better to have money in Roth and cash/fix’ed income if you’re going to lay out a few mill for a house, unless you want an asset based mortgage, which I’m thinking about.
That's the plan.....use our Roth accounts for capital purchases in retirement. Yeah, it's going to be tough to covert with our tax brackets and amounts. Our better play is probably to use our company's Roth 401k option. I have been waiting to see if the SECURE 2.0 bill passes. I believe that will allow company matches to be paid via after-tax Roth money as well. Right now, if you use the Roth 401k option, only the employee contribution goes into the Roth, but the company match is still pre-tax/tax-deferred.
Dumb post. With the market going down so much already, the leveraged ETFs are de-risked. Returns will be 2-3x when you get back to ATHs, which will happen sooner or later. If it goes down more, who gives a hoot. The math is on your side. Just relax, be patient, and add if the opportunity arises.
bet You thought it “de-risk” last Friday. You are rewarded with a 13% loss today.
Oh my goodness gracious. What will I ever do!!!!! It's never going back up again. This money is lost forever.
your problem is you don’t understand your investments.Oh my goodness gracious. What will I ever do!!!!! It's never going back up again. This money is lost forever.
Your problem is you are just so weak-kneed. Take a deep breath and be patient. Now is the time to make money.
Being patient is the key. Rushing in to buy 3x etf is not being patient. Why didn’t you buy leveraged fund in 2020 and 2021 when the market was running up? That’s when you should be buying those funds.
How does time decay impact TQQQ?Oh my goodness gracious. What will I ever do!!!!! It's never going back up again. This money is lost forever.
I’m long the market but how do we reach ATHs without new money pouring in? Ex. People would have to shift from bonds or fixed income to stocks. Or, gov’t would have to start sending out free money. Hodlers dump crypto in favor of stocks. With so many people in the red I’m not sure there is a quick turnaround in sight.
Nope, you buy leveraged funds in down markets, lock in low CBs, and then enjoy the runs like in 2H 2020 and 2021. Take some time and do the math. Also review the Morningstar 10k return chart. It's pretty clear when to use them.
FYI - March 2020 would have been a great time to use these funds.....too bad I didn't know about them back then.
Article from last year but this is why I was asking:It doesn't. Next question.
Plenty of money will come pouring in once inflation starts going down. People are not buying bonds, they are just putting cash on the sidelines until the regain the backbone to jump back in.
Face it, where else can you get legit returns? Bonds, no. Fixed income, no. Real estate, no. And remember, 401k contributions just keep plugging along.
The charts and historic returns prove otherwise. The etfs reset everyday. Just need to understand the math (which I have described several times).
Yes, 3x ETF is a great when you can pick the bottom. Clearly, you can’t pick a bottom. You should buy inverse leverage funds in down markets.Nope, you buy leveraged funds in down markets, lock in low CBs, and then enjoy the runs like in 2H 2020 and 2021. Take some time and do the math. Also review the Morningstar 10k return chart. It's pretty clear when to use them.
FYI - March 2020 would have been a great time to use these funds.....too bad I didn't know about them back then.
We’re a long way from the bottom. Biden’s destruction of the economy is only starting to take effect. We will not see bottom for quite a few months. Opportunities will open up.
The beauty about 3x ETFs is that the math is so powerful on the upswing that you don't need the bottom. Just need a suitable low enough level to start and your returns will be plentiful.
Check out the charts and figure out the math for yourself.
That is a loaded question. It all depends on wether you are a long term investor vs short term trader. For long term investors, you need to consider your time horizon. If you have decades then you should definitely look for the stocks that are being discounted. I am more a technology sector investor, so I naturally gravitate towards those stocks. AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA, NVDA, FB , AMD amongst others are good choices for so called "big tech". For the growth stocks keep in mind that not all of these stocks will survive and prosper, I would look at COIN, CRWD, LCID, MRNA, LYFT, NIO, NU, PLTR, QS, RBLX, RIVN, SNOW, SOFI, SKLZ amongst others. I would suggest that you create a basket or multiple baskets and invest in the basket as a whole. There are several brokerages that allow you to create a basket and trade in terms of dollars. I like fidelity, but there are others as well.
Biden & Co. need the market to tank to stop inflation. Interest rates are not stopping the rich from buying $1M+ homes, sports cars, etc. I still see million dollar homes flying off the market in my town. The buying will only stop once investment accounts take a hit and people don’t feel wealthy like they did for the last 2 years.
I am looking at TQQQ to get ~$30 to hit the bottom. We may reach that in the next couple of days making it a great opportunity to buy short term call option at that time.
Great bet if you are calling a bottom. But that’s only half of it. The other half is why do you think it’ll rebound? Trading sideways is also terrible for 3x ETF.
I would love to hear your thoughts on COIN and other crypto stock plays. I have all the stocks in your first list above, except AMD. I am considering adding MRVL to my long-hold stocks. Should I consider AMD as well?
I don't necessarily think it will bounce straight up. It may go up and down for a while, which makes option trading a good play. I don't claim that the 3x ETF's are a good long term play. The gentleman who keeps suggesting it should list all of his trades and tax lots for everyone so we can see how buying 3x ETF's can be a good long term strategy.