Target slashing prices. Buy big tech.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
From a Market Watch article: “the historical record shows that over the very long term stocks have been the place to be. But the very long term can be very long term indeed. During the past 100 years, you were better off holding Treasury bills or short-term deposits than the S&P 500 for the 15 years after 1928, the 17 years after 1964, and the 13 years after 1999.”
So during the first 47 years of my life, there were two long stretches totaling 30 years where treasuries and deposits out performed stocks. The article also noted that millennial’s expectations for stock market returns is far above reality, with 80% expecting real returns (taking inflation into account), of greater than 10% a year. However, over the past century, the return above inflation for equities is 7% (which is still solid, but it should be a wake-up call for the youngsters that haven’t experienced long periods of less than stellar returns.)
So during the first 47 years of my life, there were two long stretches totaling 30 years where treasuries and deposits out performed stocks. The article also noted that millennial’s expectations for stock market returns is far above reality, with 80% expecting real returns (taking inflation into account), of greater than 10% a year. However, over the past century, the return above inflation for equities is 7% (which is still solid, but it should be a wake-up call for the youngsters that haven’t experienced long periods of less than stellar returns.)
Nice cherry picking dates. Stocks have beaten bonds and T-bills about 98% of the time during periods of 5 years or more (throughout the past 100 years). Good grief.
The Fed will be cutting rates by the end of the year. And probably going QE again.
CEO's change but nagging issues always crop up with INTC. Down 4% at the open. I think 35-37 area might have some support if it got down there. Actually do think longer term not a bad stock once those factories in the US are in service. So you get in with the outlook that domestic production might improve its future prospects.
TGT continuing its bounce off the 52wk low area from yesterday, in the green at the open. Staples/utilities red.
TGT continuing its bounce off the 52wk low area from yesterday, in the green at the open. Staples/utilities red.
Hopefully not.
I think we'd like to see stabilization of rates, with continued tightening, and an economy which is able to grow through it.
However unlikely that is, but QE would signal the economy is in trouble.
I own INTC as a safe haven play in a choppy market, and it can't even perform there. Still like the long term story, onshoring etc, but maybe they are the glut everyone is worried about in the chip space.
I was in an actual TGT store last weeked and was going to come here and post about how packed the clothes section was. The overstock was pretty obvious. I'd like to get into the stock eventually but haven't done so yet. TJX probably a good play off TGT/WMT's overstock.
I've owned INTC off and on over the years and undoubtedly it always has something pop up regardless of CEO. I mentioned just awhile back I could see inventory shortages turn into gluts and that seems to be the case for the short term at least. Domestic production in the future I think could be beneficial to it but that's longer term not near term.
TJX generally isn't one for me (although outlet discounters are a good space). I still like TGT and WMT (own WMT from long ago) and would buy/add to either (almost did for WMT on the drop last month when I was away but it just missed the order I had set) at the right price and depending what's happening in the market.
Snowflake CEO on Cramer tonight, preview looks like he maintains a bullish outlook.
Stock currently trading at 30x price to rev's. But 2023 rev's expected to be about 70% higher then 2022. And growth expect to be plenty strong beyond that. Cash flow positive and strong growth expected there as well.
Stock currently trading at 30x price to rev's. But 2023 rev's expected to be about 70% higher then 2022. And growth expect to be plenty strong beyond that. Cash flow positive and strong growth expected there as well.
Since folks on this forum love leveraged ETFs... anyone dabbling on buying YINN outright or call options in YINN and/or buying put options in YANG? The technicals definitely seem to be in favor of these Chinese stocks and they are ready to burst. Fundamentals are also lining up in their favor.
Not likely in my opinion. Cathie Woods is wrong when it comes to inflation. Excess inventories had more to do with changed spending habits than demand slippage. There's a lot of inflation still in the pipeline too. Even Intel says the chip shortage will extend to 2024. Inflation will probably still be 5-6% by the end of the year and the Fed is unlikely to reduce rates in the face of such inflation.
We're just in the beginning of a bear market correction -- my opinion. The markets have taken into account the decrease of future earnings because of rates, and that's why we saw the high flying, profitless tech go down. The next step in a bear market is when actual, current earning go down, because of demand issues, inflation ect., and you're just starting to see this. I don't think the markets have fully factored in these losses yet.
And then of course you have asset bubble bursting when folks flee to bonds, but I suspect you'll need much higher yields for that to happen. Not sure how high yields with get with higher rates and and QT. The Fed has a real tricky situation where it can't let yields get too high, because the debt load is so onerous, but it really must address this high inflation with the tools in its' box.
I've read that cats like Ray Dalio thinks the Fed will be forced to reduce rates in the face of stagflation in circa 2024, with an inflation rate he projects at about 5%, but I don't know how you could reduce rates in the face of inflation w/o it becoming entrenched, permanent.
Lots of smart people disagree, so it'll be interesting to see how this shakes out. I think we're in for a rough patch, because unlike prior periods, the feds hands are tied.
Ha, YINN and YANG. Can't say I'm familiar with them, but I'll check them out.
ARK set's a price target of $1500 for ZM byt 2026.
Currently trading at $115.
Currently trading at $115.
Saw Ms. Woods interviewed yesterday. Seems like a cracked nut at this point. What's the investor allure? Findom? LOL....
At one point the outperformance warranted the spotlight.
But her unwillingness to adapt, and then to triple down on a strategy that isn't working, really makes one wonder.
Now check back in a couple years. ZM doesn't need to get to $1500 for her to be correct imo. If it's up a multiple of it's current level then I think it's a good call, even if it is over embellished.
I watched a 45 min presentation a few weeks backs with her and an economist, mostly about the current state of inflation. Her enthusiasm for her beliefs is contagious, and I can see why people follow her, but sitting back I had the definite feeling they were trying to pool the wool over my eyes. They read a lot into limited data, drew some crazy causal chains, and ignored data/explanations that didn't fit their narrative. For example, she argued that high gas prices are deflationary, because it'll lead to more online shopping which will lead to less stores, malls being built -- see, deflationary! Ha, ha, for the record, they predicted inflation under 2% by the end of the year. My belief, you only get that if there's a massive recession, and if there is a massive recession, the financial markets will roll over for better buying opportunities. And look around, people still spending too much for an imminent recession, labor market too tight.
Anyway, I don't think the tech story is done, in the very long run. You'll need that technological innovations in the future, but they have to get through this valley of high inflation and high rates, and we're only entering it now. It may stretch out for some time. I do think, given debt loads, central banks want artificially low rates, to stimulate growth, that's the norm, but only if inflation allows it. I wonder if we're entering an era of higher inflationary pressures -- strengthening labor, energy, re-shoring some manf., ect. We'll see.
Last edited:
I don't know about you guys but a year ago the vast majority of invites I received for video conferencing were zoom. Now most are google meet and Microsoft teams is picking up as well. I don't see as many zoom invites as I used to.
2% by the end of the year?
Another example of her tripling down on a call that has proven inaccurate. Just say something fairly reasonable, like 4%.
Inflation does seem to hinge very much on Ukraine, so maybe we see a big dip in the 2nd half of the year? but that doesn't look to have an immediate end point in the near future.
At this point? She’s always been a cracked nut and rode one of the strongest bull markets in history just like the rest of us pedestrian investors. She didn’t make any great investments outside of Tesla. She’s a clown.
Watch that show Shark Tank from time to time and we’d be surprised at the valuations some of the entrepreneurs come up with or were able to get even…and we’d joke another “stupid Silicon Valley” valuation. Looks like easy money drying up will finally put an end to that.
The article draws an obvious analogy to the 2000 dot com bust, but I think an even more apt analogy is the recessions of the 1970s, where the Fed was fighting high inflation with increasing energy and labor costs after years of brash gov't spending. Sound familiar? The FANG stocks back then were the Nifty Fifty and they pretty much had a lost decade.
S&P over 5,000 by the end of the year. Bears are never right in the long run. Inflation going bye bye very soon, the data trends are clear. Be prepared!
You're a funny funny guy. Go "All In." Pronto. And send CW a dozen long-stem roses and TL a box of Cohiba Behike 52s.
Core inflation is barely up. Everyone is being overly emotional. Buy, buy, buy.
T2K's inflation takes are as bad as KYK's basketball takes.
MOM core was 1%! Holy ****.
Also the YOY benefited from the base effect by about 1% so this number is even worse than it looks.