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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,295
19,277
113
Important tidbit on China to watch (from CNBC Investing Club daily email):

China debating $220 billion stimulus package.
 
M

mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,500
18,787
113
Anyone following energy, and particularly oil and gas, might want to look at Daniel Yergin's op ed in today's WSJ. I consider him the top expert in the field.
 
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rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
16,774
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J

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,103
12,266
82
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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jtung230 said:
No one can force anyone to do anything. They’ll settle for a number. I’ll bet it’s less than a billion.
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I agree I don't think they could force him but I think they'll hold his feet to the fire and I think it will be more than the 1B breakup fee but we'll see.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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ivan brunetti

Heisman
Nov 26, 2003
16,448
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I don't think we are close to bottom. I foresee a giant tilted L recovery (if that makes sense) that will take a couple of years to hit new highs.
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
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Bret Taylor, Twitter’s chairman, said he intends to see the deal through and said the company plans to take legal action against Musk.

If Twitter files a lawsuit against Musk, the parties are likely to face a long legal battle ahead.

Twitter’s board is in a very difficult position, said Ann Lipton, a professor of corporate governance at Tulane Law School. “They can’t just say, ’Alright, let’s spare us the pain, Elon we’ll let you knock the price down by $20 per share, or we’ll settle, we’ll agree to walk away if you just pay the billion dollar break fee. I mean, Twitter is just not in a position to be able to do that.”

Doing so would risk triggering a lawsuit by Twitter shareholders, she added. Twitter shareholders have already fileda lawsuit against the company and Elon Musk himself over the chaotic deal.

Merger agreements are “very hard to get out of,” and so far, Musk appears to have provided insufficient evidence backing up his claims that Twitter lied about its spam figures, Lipton said.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,295
19,277
113
RUinPinehurst

RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
7,918
113
Ok value seekers.... Have a look at Novartis (NVS). Thoughts? 7.87 p/e. 3.3 div

From Morningstar: "With strong positions in multiple key therapeutic areas, Novartis is well positioned for steady long-term growth. Strong intellectual property supporting multi-billion-dollar products, combined with an abundance of late-pipeline products, creates a wide economic moat. While patent losses on anemia drug Exjade and cancer drug Afinitor will weigh on near-term growth, a strong portfolio of drugs along with a robust pipeline should ensure steady long-term growth."
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,295
19,277
113
RUinPinehurst said:
Ok value seekers.... Have a look at Novartis (NVS). Thoughts? 7.87 p/e. 3.3 div

From Morningstar: "With strong positions in multiple key therapeutic areas, Novartis is well positioned for steady long-term growth. Strong intellectual property supporting multi-billion-dollar products, combined with an abundance of late-pipeline products, creates a wide economic moat. While patent losses on anemia drug Exjade and cancer drug Afinitor will weigh on near-term growth, a strong portfolio of drugs along with a robust pipeline should ensure steady long-term growth."
Click to expand...
I worked for NVS until going to a gene therapy company last year (which is ironically full of ex-NVS people). NVS is going through a serious evolution right now. They are combining their 2 largest BUs into the new "innovative medicines" BU and is likely to spin off their 3rd BU (Sandoz - generics & biosims, which are low margins). I believe they are cutting about 8,000 jobs WW as well.

Long story short, I believe these are good moves and will unlock a lot of shareholder value. Look for Vas (CEO) to double down on cutting edge sciences and innovation (which is higher margin) and make several focused acquisitions.

I also think that HC/biotech is a sector ready to blow up and lead the way on the market rebound, so NVS would have a nice wind to its back.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,295
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Inflation and pricing rolling over quickly now. Careful with freaking out over the high CPI on Wed, which is backwards looking. Many indicators show inflation dumping:

 
R

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
rutgersdave said:
Saw this on TV, there are about 300,000 public pools and about 1/3 100,000 will not open because no lifeguards. Kids going to cause trouble when the pools aren’t open. They had a 70 years old who was going to be a lifeguard who was during her teens. Immigration restrictions, legal and illegal, is probably part of the cause. Legal immigration down 1 million last 4 years and illegal, supposedly doing a great job, down 3 Millions. There’s 4 million right there. When they stopped the illegal, they needed to increase the legals but a lot of American think the US is being overrun by immigrants.

no employment problems back in the 70/80’s, plenty of people around.
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The causes of the lifeguard shortage​

During the pandemic, lifeguard certification programs were canceled across the country. That resulted in no new guards coming on board while thousands of certificates expired.

The second blow came in June 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic when then-President Trump banned foreign work visas due to public health concerns. Prior to the ban, many lifeguard positions were filled using the J-1 work visa, which brought in students from overseas.
 
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mdk02

Heisman
Aug 18, 2011
26,500
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rutgersdave said:

The causes of the lifeguard shortage​

During the pandemic, lifeguard certification programs were canceled across the country. That resulted in no new guards coming on board while thousands of certificates expired.

The second blow came in June 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic when then-President Trump banned foreign work visas due to public health concerns. Prior to the ban, many lifeguard positions were filled using the J-1 work visa, which brought in students from overseas.
Click to expand...

And the certificates of the J-1 visa holders wouldn't have expired just like the residents'?
 
RUinPinehurst

RUinPinehurst

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Aug 27, 2011
8,396
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T2Kplus20 said:
Buy, buy, buy, especially big tech. S&P 5,100 by year end!

Click to expand...

I dunno. CPI report this week will likely breach 9%. Fed QE going to kick in and negatively impact equities. And we're facing back-to-back 75 bps rate increases.

That said, if you have a shopping list and see the right price, yes, accumulate. But "buy buy buy"? Hmmm....
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,295
19,277
113
RUinPinehurst said:
I dunno. CPI report this week will likely breach 9%. Fed QE going to kick in and negatively impact equities. And we're facing back-to-back 75 bps rate increases.

That said, if you have a shopping list and see the right price, yes, accumulate. But "buy buy buy"? Hmmm....
Click to expand...
CPI will be bad on Wed, but that data lags the real world by almost a month. Many leading indicators show prices and inflation falling off a cliff. PPI on Thursday will be a better read on where inflation is going. The 0.75% is baked in and expected by practically everyone:

 
RUinPinehurst

RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
7,918
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T2Kplus20 said:
CPI will be bad on Wed, but that data lags the real world by almost a month. Many leading indicators show prices and inflation falling off a cliff. PPI on Thursday will be a better read on where inflation is going. The 0.75% is baked in and expected by practically everyone:

Click to expand...
Thursday we'll see earnings reports starting. JPM is hinting at a 20% decrease. Other banks hinting similar. Overall slide expected. And then there's the resurgence of COVID in China. Shutdowns and more supply chain woes? Nothing is "baked in," methinks. Other than instability.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,295
19,277
113
RUinPinehurst said:
Thursday we'll see earnings reports starting. JPM is hinting at a 20% decrease. Other banks hinting similar. Overall slide expected. And then there's the resurgence of COVID in China. Shutdowns and more supply chain woes? Nothing is "baked in," methinks. Other than instability.
Click to expand...
Sounds like Xi is officially done with any broad lockdowns. His support and power took a hit on the last one.
 
F

FastMJ

All-American
Jan 6, 2007
33,916
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Looking forward 12 months, I don't see inflation above 3% happening. How much higher can bacon go before people eat scrapple instead?
 
R

rutgersguy1_rivals

Heisman
Dec 17, 2008
45,214
16,774
0
RUinPinehurst said:
Ok value seekers.... Have a look at Novartis (NVS). Thoughts? 7.87 p/e. 3.3 div

From Morningstar: "With strong positions in multiple key therapeutic areas, Novartis is well positioned for steady long-term growth. Strong intellectual property supporting multi-billion-dollar products, combined with an abundance of late-pipeline products, creates a wide economic moat. While patent losses on anemia drug Exjade and cancer drug Afinitor will weigh on near-term growth, a strong portfolio of drugs along with a robust pipeline should ensure steady long-term growth."
Click to expand...
Have owned it in the past but don't currently. I'd say it looks range bound. High 70s low 80s on the bottom and mid 90s on the high end.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,295
19,277
113
rutgersguy1 said:
Have owned it in the past but don't currently. I'd say it looks range bound. High 70s low 80s on the bottom and mid 90s on the high end.
Click to expand...
Looking for biotech and pharma to be big winners with the upcoming rebound. Not sold on financials or energy.
 
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