haha, I hear you and I think the same thing. If you look at leverage on loans it's high as well so no doubt people are borrowing up the cornhole
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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I'm aware it's above that area. The price can pierce above or below a range that may be resistance/support and that's something to take into account but the longer it can stay above/below that area (weekly/monthly) is what's more substantive IMO. It's also running up near some moving average resistance but still could have room up to 4300. We'll see if it can hold and consolidate in this area longer term.
1.1B loss on streaming. It's a capital intensive biz and without clear path to profitability. It's why I think that Walmart+ bundle or whatever else they can come up with would be a good idea for smaller players like Paramount, Peacock etc...You have to spend so much money on content and you don't know what's going to be a hit or miss.
I guess they think that more subs for Disney+ directly adds customers to other BUs.....parks, cruises, movies, etc.
Sure there might be some crossover effect but that's not the goal. Streaming isn't meant to be some sort of loss leader. It's meant to be profitable over time but content is so costly and it doesn't feel like it ever abates. Subs w/o profitability isn't the goal and not sure it will be tolerated indefinitely.
I don’t understand Disney other than it’s an iconic brand. But, it’s the only stock/company I’ve ever seen that cut the dividend to zero during COVID (and has yet to reinstitute it), docked it’s cruise ships, closed and/or operated parks at limited capacity, took a beating on ESPN and content costs, yet despite all that more than doubled off the lows and currently sits at about $120 p/sh with a PE of around 75. Is it that Disney estimates were lowered so much that any beat sends the stock flying?
Many of those things are pandemic era related things. They've been slow to abate but they're abating and DIS will come out of it eventually. This isn't a company that makes no money despite the 1.1B loss on streaming. They have plenty of iconic brands and ways to monetize them.
The ESPN thing has been there for years, it's not new info and as you can see what happened with the B10 among other properties, they're being more disciplined about it. They're raising prices for the streaming services and now an ad supported tier if one chooses.
If you extrapolate the earnings the PE is closer to the mid-high 20s and forward PE is in that area now. Part of what you say is true though, it's been beaten down hard so any good news will buoy the stock in the short term at least.
I said a little back that it's approaching that support area in the 80s and it might be a good spot for it. During the pandemic it just broke below that area and into the high 70s and turned and this time just above that area around 90 and turned. The 200MMA was right in that area and it bounced right off it for now. The last time it broke that area was in the late 2000s and it sniffed around it in the pandemic but it didn't break. It's firmly above the 50DMA now and the 200DMA which probably will be harder to get through is in the 130s area.
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Yeah but from an investment perspective it was a dividend aristocrat forever before COVID and had strength in virtually every area of their business. Then they get crushed/shut-down and the stock doubles off the launch of D+? With that said, I’m a big Disney fan and probably haven’t spent enough time analyzing the stock.
I love dividends, part of why I added VZ recently and love staples/utilities, but I don't remember DIS ever being a big yielder. IIRC, DIS usually yielded in the 1-2% range maybe with some moments outside of that range on a price drop but nothing premium in my recollection not 4-5% or even 3%.
I don't buy DIS for the dividend but more for capital appreciation.
I’m good with where I got it in the 43-44 area and if it goes lower I’ll add more. I’m fine with the yield and eventually the yield will give it support if it hasn’t already.
Sorry, don't have CNBC Pro, but I noticed this:
PPI turns negative!!!!! This is more of a leading indicator for core CPI. You know what this means:
Right up there with the meme stock return has to be the victory laps being taken of people who called the bottom
Unfortunately we’ll never pay lower prices again unless serious demand destruction. Price gouging will continue.PPI turns negative!!!!! This is more of a leading indicator for core CPI. You know what this means:
I didn't know that was a thing. It's all a guess, educated guessing yes but if you're right you've gotten a little lucky too. I use charts and technicals to help with my "guessing" and where I might buy something but in the end who knows if it will be a bottom or not. There's always luck factor involved whether one wants to admit it or not.
Never would make such a call, but I was proud to be buying on 6/16.....which may have been the/a bottom (based on that last unexpected awful CPI report). That round of buying was rough, but it has paid off big so far.
Paying absolutely lower prices is unrealistic. A gallon of milk use to be $0.79. Time moves on. Just worry about inflation getting back to benchmark levels and the market going up, up, up.
I’m not one of those “slice of pizza used to be $0.99” guys, but at the same time the price increases on just about every good/service over the past year is mind-boggling and not just due to inflation = plenty of price gouging everywhere. I like that inflation seems to be cooling off but that doesn’t fix the current environment which is creating a mess with household spending and debt levels.
Wages have gone up a ton as well, especially for lower income people. It's a balance.
And from the NY Fed:
"The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the second quarter of 2022, increasing by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion. Balances now stand $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. The report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel."
A third of people had to use $600 in 6 months? Oh my goodness gracious, the sky is falling. LOL. Just a clickbait article. The job market is great, anyone can get something better.
You are thinking too much like an upper-middle class guy from NJ with only one kid.
Who spends waaay too much time on the interwebs whilst on the clock.... LOL.
Been reading/hearing multiple times that a close on SP500 above 4232 is a very good technical sign. Today may be the day.
technical analysis works with markets that are not manipulated and mostly in a vacuum absent numerous externalities present today. Fed will keep raising rates so smart is using any jump in equity prices to reposition. risk is not quite 'on' yet. Bond mkt has never been wrong and now 10yr swap rates look worrisome. be careful
it's not just US, 10yr bund under 1% is almost as laughable as anyone listening to cramer. Now factor in fx for cross bond rates and it's even more laughable.
be careful
Speaking of the Bund, saw an interesting article about water levels on the Rhine. They are getting critically low for shipping. If levels continue to drop, it will add another drag on the German and European economy.
Only 1 kid! The key to happiness. LOL. Seriously, we waited for a while after getting married and then finally took the plunge. Our little one was such an easy baby/child that we didn't want to tempt fate with another. Also, we are too far along to start over! Daughter is now 10. Wow, time flies.
TA always seems like voodoo. I heard someone once say.....TA only works because enough people think it works. Sounds like a house of cards.
Also, wanted to personally thank you for your crypto/ETH advice early in 2021. I made 3x on ETHE that year!
I hope you listened when I said go to cash last yr (end of year timeframe) kept powder dry
RUTGERS95 are you moving to cash now? I will say over the past I’ve sold off a bunch of positions after DCA’ing back into the green.
I moved to cash last yr before the mkt lost 1/2 qtr. I've bought back some reits etc. but there are concerns so I still have powder to burn for right opportunity. Anytime you have rising inflation, topping out on employment with expected downturn, global turmoil and gov't spending and rising taxes, I prefer to play it safe. way too many companies are announcing layoffs and cost for everyday goods continue to remain elevated to higher. Just wait till you have revaluations on earnings
I was a little late, but sold at the end of the year for $4k and change. Sold GBTC for a modest profit as well. Started buying back in throughout the year via Coinbase, so no more Greyscale. The recent move has gotten me back to even on my current holdings (smaller positions than before). Waiting for ETH 2.0 to land! LOL.