The calculations that I referred to (high volatility) periods will definitely mute your results, but high volatility does not usually last for an entire decade. Over a long period of time, volatility usually is smoother which maybe in your favor. I would not worry about ATHs.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Just stick to your convictions. If you believe in your thesis and have confidence in your calculations, then you should go for it. The difference between making hundreds of millions versus a few million in the stock market often comes down to the courage to pulling the trigger. Of course being smart helps form your thesis, but without the courage to make the bold move, I have seen a lot of very smart people falter.
“I’ve always said, the key organ here isn’t the brain, it’s the stomach. When things start to decline – there are bad headlines in the papers and on television – will you have the stomach for the market volatility and the broad-based pessimism that tends to come with it?”
— Peter LynchMost people know how to make money in the stock market, but few have the stomach for it, especially when big moves need to be make. I'm learning and understanding my limits.
Glad you are learning more. You get a better feel of the market with more experience.
The Unilever CEO was on and he was saying he is still seeing high levels of inflation.
This certainly goes against what many are now saying.
Some British guy, Jim O'Neill I think his name was, was then on and was thinking the Unilever CEO may have been saying this merely as a justification to keep margins high. Which is a pretty provocative claim to make on air.
CNBC was also Fundstrat was noting that in the 70's there was never a time when the price of oil cratered like it has here. Said that even when oil was flat back in the 70's CPI came down strongly.
WTI down to $83.
This certainly goes against what many are now saying.
Some British guy, Jim O'Neill I think his name was, was then on and was thinking the Unilever CEO may have been saying this merely as a justification to keep margins high. Which is a pretty provocative claim to make on air.
CNBC was also Fundstrat was noting that in the 70's there was never a time when the price of oil cratered like it has here. Said that even when oil was flat back in the 70's CPI came down strongly.
WTI down to $83.
Seems a whole bunch of people think PINS is a buy. It's off it's lows, but still way off it's highs.
Forecasted '23 EPS of .75, current stock price of $23, so 30ishx fwd. $1.04 eps expected in 2024, so over 30% eps growth, which would equate to an attractive PEG ratio.
Current price to sales of 5.4x.
Forecasted '23 EPS of .75, current stock price of $23, so 30ishx fwd. $1.04 eps expected in 2024, so over 30% eps growth, which would equate to an attractive PEG ratio.
Current price to sales of 5.4x.
Does anyone have any experience with institutional real estate investments? The link below is one example of how investing in farmland could work. I'm sure there others too. It would seem to be a good way to diversify your asset allocation and income stream.
https://acretrader.com/
https://acretrader.com/
This isn’t “institutional“. More like crowd funding. Stay far far away.
unilever is not wrong as my wife works for the fragrance and flavors giant and they are eating into their margins not to press costs on but it's inevitable. Everywhere we have sticky and persistent inflation. I think a lot of the talking heads don't want to admit to being wrong or need the mkts to do well for political reasons. Gov't data on a headline may look good till you really dig deep and break it down. Banks are giving internal memos on costs, balance sheets, keeping more capital on hand for impending moves by regulators (that doesn't happen unless the quiet expectation is for things to turn bad to real bad) and now the recession is being moved to next year. use upticks in the mkt to square your positions and remember, the Fed is not going to float this mkt any longer so there is less downside resistance.
asking prices are certainly declining in the areas I am watching but areas with epicenters of commerece (NYC and towns with direct links for instance) will weather it better but these are also the areas of higher living costs and wage growth is not and never has been a constant with respects to inflation. Purchaing Power is to be watched closely regionally
I like dividend but the biggest wildcard is that 27% of the fund is invested in China and another 21% in Taiwan. For me, there's too much geopolitical risk in investing in China.
A few companies popping after the beat with earnings beats:
Lots of EM/exUS corporate bonds there (well) below investment grade, no? Seems to be a sizeable exposure given the potential impact of recession i.e. credit payment default.
no doubt but if looking for income and ok debt holdings, its' not a reach is all
Per BOA analysis…1st half of ‘23 looks like the mild jobs recession (as opposed to a GDP-only recession which isn’t really a recession). The next six months look risky for equities (with some buying opportunities for sure). To my chagrin I see no reason for MSFT to trade at a 33 PE again any time soon but hopefully inflation keeps coming down so the second half of ‘23 will seem normal and a more familiar macro environment.
Leading indicators show inflation is crashing hard. CPI is a weird and very lagging indicator, but smart people know this. Even home prices are deflating now. This is setting up for a pivot for the market whether the Fed admits to it or not. Looks for ATHs again soon. Be prepared and don't miss out.
I'll know inflation is "crashing hard" when grocery prices start falling. Chicken cutlets, chopped meat still more than double in price along with eggs, milk, etc. Fortunately my household can afford these hikes but these prices are a reflection of real inflation, not govt manipulated figures.
Don't rely on reports, CPI or otherwise. Get out and see inflation firsthand. It's all about Main Street impact. Look outside your bubble. Consider the working and middle class impact. The Fed is committed to reducing inflation to 2%. So there's much work to do. Fed rates need to go to 4.5%. And they will. While the pump price of gasoline in now $3.40 or so (here in NC), it is still relatively high. Cost of housing (rent or home ownership) is still way high vs historical costs, while mortgage rates are now at 6% and climbing. Food/groceries costs, though, still very much inflated considering both cost-per-item and the shrinking packaging. Also availability is waning at times.
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I’m gonna sit and wait and not empty my liquid savings which is now earning 1.7%.
It sure is. Since I retired and my wife still works, I get to do the grocery shopping on many occasions. I can see it with my own eyes so please don’t call me a liar.
Nothing like getting out and seeing for yourself vs hearing the spin from CNBC talking heads.
And you are happy with 1.7%? Wow. FYI, Ally Bank is 2% and Capital One is 1.9% now.
You must shop at the worst store in the world. The Shoprite's in my area have prices a little higher but no where close to double. Also, the data doesn't suggest that in any way. Sorry.
It’s at Goldman and the rate keeps going up. It was very competitive when I opened the account. I’m gonna look now as a matter of fact to see if another increase is coming.
Edit: now 1.9%.
Better than 0.5% a few months ago, but still pretty crappy. You shouldn't be satisfied. Gotta be using your cash to take advantage of this temporary bear market.
That is because of the use of margin. Have to pay margin interest.