OT: Stock and Investment Thread

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
19,260
113
Markets slightly down today after being up most of the day. From what I read, tomorrow’s CPI is not expected to be good.


The forecast

The cost of living is expected to climb a relatively mild 0.3% in September, partly because cheaper gasoline kept the overall price increase down.

Still, the rise in the CPI over the past year is expected to be little changed at around 8.2%. That's one of the highest annual inflation rates since 1982 and more than quadruple the annual increase in inflation in the decade before the pandemic.

Core inflation

Since food and gas prices can be quite jumpy, the Federal Reserve views the so-called core rate of inflation as a better indicator of future price trends.

The core CPI, which omits food and energy, is forecast to rise a more pronounced 0.5% in September. Such an increase would push the yearly rate of core inflation up to 6.5% from 6.3%, economists estimate, to match the sharpest core increase since 1982.

That would not be good news for investors or the economy. The core rate includes staples such as rent and housing, medical care, and car prices.
Tomorrow's CPI will give us a good read on inflation.....from 4-6 month ago! LOL. BS metric that shouldn't be used by the Fed (and those making forward-looking policy decisions).

Housing and rent prices in the CPI lag even worse.....9-12 months. In the real world today, house prices have declined in both of the past 2 months. Rent even went deflationary last month.
 

RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
7,918
113
Never heard of the "gift" option. Hopefully it starts working.
The problem resulted from Treasury Direct's recent early October website upgrades. Now, in error, if an individual has already met his/her annual $10k I-Bond limit, the site prevents that individual from "gifting" I-Bonds to others, when, in fact, the rules allow for an individual to gift up to $10k to any individual including a spouse, a child, etc. This "glitch" is apparently being worked on; in the meanwhile the deadline looms to lock into the 6-month 9.62% interest rate.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
19,260
113
Am I missing something? I thought we were in the middle of a chip shortage because demand was so high…
Semi's will boom over the next 5-10 years, but Intel is the ugly duckling of the group for good reason. Just a legacy company that was late to evolve.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
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job losses are coming and the Fed is going to exacerbate the problem by relying on outdated methods of cooling an economy. On top of that, rate changes take months to truly impact
Fed = Stupid
The only good thing is after they f up, they will need to cut rates and start QE to clean up the unnecessary mess they made.
 

rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,249
2,204
88
Hate to say it but only way I see this market go up meaningfully is if the Republicans win the house. Hopefully the senate stays under democrat power, but a split government will result in a much higher end to the year for the stock market.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,103
12,266
82
Hate to say it but only way I see this market go up meaningfully is if the Republicans win the house. Hopefully the senate stays under democrat power, but a split government will result in a much higher end to the year for the stock market.
why? problems we are facing isn’t just in the US.
 

RUTGERS95

Heisman
Sep 28, 2005
29,697
40,985
113
Hate to say it but only way I see this market go up meaningfully is if the Republicans win the house. Hopefully the senate stays under democrat power, but a split government will result in a much higher end to the year for the stock market.
Senate wont fall thank God. House and senate enough to fix many issues
 

RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
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Our economy is cyclical. Recessions are a normal and expected occurrence. To blame a political party or an individual or a government entity is just patently absurd. Get over it. Plan your investments based on your needs and wants but balanced by the reality of inevitable downturns. These events happen every four years on average and last for 11 months on average. Just accept it. What goes up must come down. Fortunately our path will likely be an upward cylindrical movement.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
19,260
113
Hate to say it but only way I see this market go up meaningfully is if the Republicans win the house. Hopefully the senate stays under democrat power, but a split government will result in a much higher end to the year for the stock market.
Big +1
Wall Street loves divided government (and gridlock). As of now, it seems very likely that the R's flip the house.
 

RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
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Laughable reactions on here. You should know better. Majority R's and D's and I's make no difference.

BTW, this mornings CPI data shows continuing increases in inflation contrary to one poster's unwavering predictions.

The Fed has work to do and will do it. Invest accordingly.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
19,260
113
Laughable reactions on here. You should know better. Majority R's and D's and I's make no difference.

BTW, this mornings CPI data shows continuing increases in inflation contrary to one poster's unwavering predictions.

The Fed has work to do and will do it. Invest accordingly.
Yes, inflation was worse than expected.....6 months ago! LOL at people thinking CPI measures anything recent.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
19,260
113
I don’t care if it measure a couple of months ago. I care about the direction of the stock market.
Completely agreed. I am just whining that many investors and more importantly, the Fed, are stupid for using CPI for future-focused decision making. Housing and rent literally lags 9-12 months in the CPI calculation. Think about the stupidity of that. We are reacting to data from BEFORE the Fed even started tampering.
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
S&P moving into the 3400’s level, slowly moving in at 3,300 and increasing purchasing at 3,200-3,100 levels.


HighS&P LEVELDifference from high% Decrease from high% return to high
4,8003,6001,20025.0%33.3%
4,8003,5001,30027.1%37.1%
4,8003,4001,40029.2%41.2%
4,8003,3001,50031.3%45.5%
4,8003,2001,60033.3%50.0%
4,8003,1001,70035.4%54.8%
4,8003,0001,80037.5%60.0%
4,8002,900190039.6%65.5%
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,103
12,266
82
I sold my trading acct (150k) last week. Figure I’ll try to capture more losses for taxes. No FOMO in this market. I would sell more if I didn’t have to pay taxes.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
19,260
113
S&P moving into the 3400’s level, slowly moving in at 3,300 and increasing purchasing at 3,200-3,100 levels.


HighS&P LEVELDifference from high% Decrease from high% return to high
4,8003,6001,20025.0%33.3%
4,8003,5001,30027.1%37.1%
4,8003,4001,40029.2%41.2%
4,8003,3001,50031.3%45.5%
4,8003,2001,60033.3%50.0%
4,8003,1001,70035.4%54.8%
4,8003,0001,80037.5%60.0%
4,8002,900190039.6%65.5%
Nice table, thanks for posting. Watching closely for SSO opportunities. Gotta double those back to high returns!
 

RUinPinehurst

All-American
Aug 27, 2011
8,396
7,918
113
Stupid view, dems own this now
Oh, yah? Well, you're view is Stoopid. LOL.

Really, political slants just cloud things. This is an overdue global event. But I get that many were swept up in the good times. And now that the party's over, many are trying to process that they've been caught and their investments are down. They'll be more parties. Learn. Adapt. Relax.
 
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RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
Nice table, thanks for posting. Watching closely for SSO opportunities. Gotta double those back to high returns!
I’m trying to figure out the safest entry point. You know, by the time this recession ******** happens again,you will be close to retirement. If you know the market going down, you might move assets over to cash next time.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
19,260
113
Yet when I look at houses for sale, I barely see a drop in sales price. It takes time for people to adjust. That’s why the Feds is not in a hurry to pivot,
As per the data (US aggregate), home prices have gone down the past 2 months. Down the first month 3.8%, can't remember last month. It's a start! Rent also went deflationary last month. All good signs.
 

RU-Hunter

Senior
May 21, 2022
723
494
0
Yet when I look at houses for sale, I barely see a drop in sales price. It takes time for people to adjust. That’s why the Feds is not in a hurry to pivot,
House prices are falling in certain cities such as Austin, Phoenix, others and even parts of Florida. In places that I've looked, I don't see prices coming down but I also don't see anything moving either.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,258
19,260
113
I’m trying to figure out the safest entry point. You know, by the time this recession ******** happens again,you will be close to retirement. If you know the market going down, you might move assets over to cash next time.
NEVER! Well, at least not for the next 8-10 years. Around that time, we may start creating those 3 retirement buckets for our investment assets. We still have a s-ton of cash anyway (which is for other purposes).

Okay, let's start talking turkey. We are getting to the levels where I am actively thinking about serious asset reallocations. The biggest is replacing VOO or VONE with SSO. However, I have other 2x ideas in mind too.

Thoughts?
 

RUschool

Heisman
Jan 23, 2004
49,910
14,001
78
NEVER! Well, at least not for the next 8-10 years. Around that time, we may start creating those 3 retirement buckets for our investment assets. We still have a s-ton of cash anyway (which is for other purposes).

Okay, let's start talking turkey. We are getting to the levels where I am actively thinking about serious asset reallocations. The biggest is replacing VOO or VONE with SSO. However, I have other 2x ideas in mind too.

Thoughts?
Wait till 3,100 level.
 

Frida's Boss

All-American
Oct 10, 2005
10,952
7,737
0
The risk to focus on, in my view, is the ongoing assistance provided by the Bank of England to support large pension plans exposure to rising rates. Seems many committed the sin of fund floating, invest fixed, and lever it up on top of that. There is contagion risk simmering beneath the surface.

I read a fascinating statistic on long dated gilt returns. YTD, they’ve lost 37%+. An astounding figure, and if it holds, the worst on record. To find the next two largest declines, you have to go back to 1803 (Napoleonic Wars) and then 1778. Crazy.