OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Not sure what an open letter will do, but it keeps up the conversation that the Fed is f'ing up again. That's a good thing.
Good watch:
Most of the positions in her funds will never recover to anywhere near the previous levels. Only another COVID like event can save her.
Irrelevant to this discussion. She can be a bad stock picker and 100% correct on monetary policy and the Fed's irresponsible actions. Apples and oranges.
Next up to say the Fed sux.....the EU:
Lots of folks looking for scapegoats these days. As Buffet famously stated, "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked." The tide is out. Much nakedness.
Don't need to look. Everyone knows what is going on. History will not be kind to Powell if he wrecks the economy for no reason other than his vanity.
The Fed is really starting to hurt lower income folks. They are setting up a public political intervention of their actions (like 2018 again). Never a good look for them.
A Fed pivot won’t save CW although will obviously slow the bleeding. Her funds are toast as she’s still holding too much spec tech garbage.
There are plenty of great spec tech opportunities, they just don't include many of the big names in her etfs like ROKU and TDOC.
Her best etf is the Genomics one. Yet for some reason, even that contains TDOC. Still, I would consider creating a small position in ARKG when the time is right.
You don't seem to understand the Fed's responsibility re: inflation and what long-term damage can be done if it does not bring inflation down relatively quickly. It is about the bigger economic picture and much more about Main Street than Wall Street.
That said, the Fed was slow to act initially and misread early signs. Still, now, it has no choice but to go heavy and raise rates, likely to a terminal rate of near 5% by 1Q23 before keeping it there for a few quarters.
Real inflation is modest. People yell at the 9% peak in CPI, but what folks forget is that wages also went up 5-6% during this time. So, real inflation was only 3-4%. Not something to destroy the economy over (or that Powell still has butt hurt from 2018 and 2021).
Yeah but when asset prices are sky high like housing and autos you can’t do a direct comparison. Without getting into the whole wage debate, when people talk about crazy 15%-20% mortgages the average home price was probably like $100K.
I have my parents first mortgage framed in my office because it’s signed by my grandfather as the president of the local bank. September of 1977: $35k mortgage at 9%. $293/month. The house would sell for over $500k today.
Do you know what his salary was in comparison to what that job would pay now?
Not sure and he’s not around to ask. I think he was a regional branch manager around then
I'm sure the mortgage was a lower % of monthly income as compared to today (in general).
Most likely but for a true comparison you really have to have the income not just the house price
This would be an interesting thread. My parents put a $1000 down payment with a $20,000 mortgage at 4% in 1964. It was sold in 1998 for $245k.
If Powell screws up bad enough maybe he will get a nobel prize like Bernanke did.
I had a boss in the early 1980’s who blamed high inflation on the fact that more women were working
He thought the entire problem was the 2 income family drove up prices. He was especially aggravated about car prices
He was probably around 60 to 65 at the time
I realize women began entering the workforce in mass in the 60’s
Pricing for housing would be drastically lower if there was only one person income instead of both couple working. I thought about how difference things would be without two incomes.
The father of my friend/neighbor growing up cut ties with his alma mater Princeton when they starting allowing women to attend (I think that happened in 1973). I can only imagine how that went over with his wife. Can you imagine? Different times I suppose but even back then it got people talking about him in a negative way.
Real Estate jobs were over-filled in past years and now the bubble is popping. Tech manufacturers in cycle of decay. Russia prepping major offensive when ground freezes (US and UK scuttled talks between Russia/Ukraine)
"Realtors, mortgage brokers and appraisers across the US are bracing for widespread job cuts as home sales plummet amid rising interest rates.
For those who work in and around the housing market, the effect of aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation has been swift and severe.
“It went from feast to famine, from everybody buying to turtle slow,” said Linda McCoy, board president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.
Realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers and construction groups say they have lost as much as 80 per cent of their revenue since the Fed started raising rates in March. Rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage — at 6.66 per cent — have nearly doubled since and are now at their highest level since 2008. "
Foregt the US war spin - its Ukraine getting cruhed with 100k deaths and double injuries. Russia was only using 20% of forces and now escalating. Russia population highly militant and not "quitting." Doug MacGregor 6.30 in:
"Realtors, mortgage brokers and appraisers across the US are bracing for widespread job cuts as home sales plummet amid rising interest rates.
For those who work in and around the housing market, the effect of aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation has been swift and severe.
“It went from feast to famine, from everybody buying to turtle slow,” said Linda McCoy, board president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.
Realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers and construction groups say they have lost as much as 80 per cent of their revenue since the Fed started raising rates in March. Rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage — at 6.66 per cent — have nearly doubled since and are now at their highest level since 2008. "
FT - US property sector braced for job cuts as rate rises crush home sales
Foregt the US war spin - its Ukraine getting cruhed with 100k deaths and double injuries. Russia was only using 20% of forces and now escalating. Russia population highly militant and not "quitting." Doug MacGregor 6.30 in:
Seems to be a problem with TreasuryDirect.gov as it's not allowing the option to "gift" an I-Bond to another individual. Well, the option is there; it's just not working.
The end of October deadline to lock into the 9.62% is approaching. TD is apparently working on a resolution, per online chatter. But no official communication is being offered.
Anyone else been trying to "gift" I-Bonds?
No doubt that the housing market has been cooling. There are a number cities across the country where prices are coming down and inventories building. Still high demand and unaffordable for many people though.
All eyes will be on tomorrow's CPI report which will impact the market in the short-term.
Also, the potential for a rail strike still exists as some of the unions have rejected the tentative deal. Not settled by any means and this has the potential to disrupt supply in a big way.
Update.... Apparently this is only a problem for folks who have already met their individual $10k annual purchase limit.
When I was in elementary school many of the smartest women were in teaching
Obviously that's been long over
An interesting part of the strike involves unions unhappy about trains as long as 15k feet having only one human working on them. They want conductors that could run a train (vs "self-driving") in case engineer has health issues etc.
I know there's a lot of garden variety band news but with an expanded view there are some large issues lurking. UK has another global ninnie leader who almost tanked UK pensions - this at time Jamie Dimon is highlighting dangers of a sovereign debt crisis that's probably in UK (and then others). I know people in Germany who are frantic getting food and fuel saved. Large tracts of forest are being cut down for heating this winter. The Dutch gov wants to seize farms despite famines looming (Trudeau in Canada like the idea). The green fable is on track to become a genocide while global leaders talk about nuke war like its a video game. People are spooky crazy.
The pulchritudinous Eva Vlaardingerbroek
When the smartest women were limited in their career choices by society most became teachers and nurses at compensation below what they could earn based on their ability
Once those limits were gone you had to pay more to get people to go into those professions thus driving the cost of education and medical upward
None of that justifies placing limits on what women should be able to do career wise
Huh? Teachers and nurses do make less. Wtf are you talking about. No one making this woke, keep up
Markets slightly down today after being up most of the day. From what I read, tomorrow’s CPI is not expected to be good.
The forecast
The cost of living is expected to climb a relatively mild 0.3% in September, partly because cheaper gasoline kept the overall price increase down.
Still, the rise in the CPI over the past year is expected to be little changed at around 8.2%. That's one of the highest annual inflation rates since 1982 and more than quadruple the annual increase in inflation in the decade before the pandemic.
Core inflation
Since food and gas prices can be quite jumpy, the Federal Reserve views the so-called core rate of inflation as a better indicator of future price trends.
The core CPI, which omits food and energy, is forecast to rise a more pronounced 0.5% in September. Such an increase would push the yearly rate of core inflation up to 6.5% from 6.3%, economists estimate, to match the sharpest core increase since 1982.
That would not be good news for investors or the economy. The core rate includes staples such as rent and housing, medical care, and car prices.
The forecast
The cost of living is expected to climb a relatively mild 0.3% in September, partly because cheaper gasoline kept the overall price increase down.
Still, the rise in the CPI over the past year is expected to be little changed at around 8.2%. That's one of the highest annual inflation rates since 1982 and more than quadruple the annual increase in inflation in the decade before the pandemic.
Core inflation
Since food and gas prices can be quite jumpy, the Federal Reserve views the so-called core rate of inflation as a better indicator of future price trends.
The core CPI, which omits food and energy, is forecast to rise a more pronounced 0.5% in September. Such an increase would push the yearly rate of core inflation up to 6.5% from 6.3%, economists estimate, to match the sharpest core increase since 1982.
That would not be good news for investors or the economy. The core rate includes staples such as rent and housing, medical care, and car prices.