Intense competition? TSLA is producing and selling over a million EVs a year. Nobody can come close.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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It is coming. Sure as the sun will rise and set. Competitive advantage of proprietary charging stations going away with Biden's national build-out. Tesla will be #1 for quite a while, but profit margins will shrink.
It’s already here. Tesla is losing EV market share. They were 79% in 2020 to 65% this year. Projections are worst and demand is soft.
Share will go down, but unit sales will continue to increase, which is what matters most. We have been hearing those promises by other EV companies for a few years now. Go look at what Lucid and Rivian are doing (or better said, not doing). As a wise person once said, production is hell.
Nothing about twitter is hitting tesla. tesla was overvalued, mkt dynamics, global issues, etc etc are all at play here. if it was just tesla then you MIGHT be onto something but it's across the board
Yes TSLA was overvalued but I don't think the issue is the sector the company is in. TSLA, unlike TM, and F, and GM has had, and is expected to continue to have significant revenue and EPS growth. Those other companies have not had, and are not expected to have, any growth.
But the valuation was more then the growth suggested it should have been.
Now though I think the PEG is justifying current valuation. Which is not to say it won't drop further, especially if the growth rate fizzles going fwd.
But the idea that TSLA should have a P/E in line with other auto makers? Doesn't make sense given the respective growth rates.
Elon selling $36B in stock definitely plays into it. As does the perception that he is not focused on TSLA.
But the factors you mention are at play as well.
Definitely tech level multiples are appropriate. EV is more tech than old school autos, especially if the company does the tech in-house (and not sub it out like GM, F, et al). Just wait for Apple to launch their EV.
Price cut, but Morgan Stanley still bullish on TSLA:
Morgan Stanley cuts price target on Tesla (TSLA) to $250 from $330, largely due to greater levels of price discounting. The bank calls 2023 a "a reset year for the EV market where the last 2 years of demand exceeding supply will be substantially inverted to supply exceeding demand," and thinks Tesla will widen its lead in the electric vehicle market thanks to cost and scale advantages.
Morgan Stanley cuts price target on Tesla (TSLA) to $250 from $330, largely due to greater levels of price discounting. The bank calls 2023 a "a reset year for the EV market where the last 2 years of demand exceeding supply will be substantially inverted to supply exceeding demand," and thinks Tesla will widen its lead in the electric vehicle market thanks to cost and scale advantages.
"The FactSet Automotive Index, which includes automakers and aftermarket parts, is off about 38% so far this year, as of Tuesday’s close. All major automakers and EV startups experienced double-digit declines this year – partially or completely offsetting their gains in 2021.
Many once-promising EV startups were among the biggest losers, as some ran into capital troubles or couldn’t scale production as quickly as anticipated. Rivian, Lucid, Canoo and Nikola experienced 76% declines or more year to date.
Traditional automakers were able to temper their stock declines better than the EV startups. But America’s largest automakers – General Motors
and Ford Motor – both experienced declines of more than 40%, barring any surprise rally to end the year. Others such as Stellantis, Nissan, Toyota
and Volkswagen have declined more than 25%.
Ferrari wins by losing the least"
Many once-promising EV startups were among the biggest losers, as some ran into capital troubles or couldn’t scale production as quickly as anticipated. Rivian, Lucid, Canoo and Nikola experienced 76% declines or more year to date.
Traditional automakers were able to temper their stock declines better than the EV startups. But America’s largest automakers – General Motors
and Ford Motor – both experienced declines of more than 40%, barring any surprise rally to end the year. Others such as Stellantis, Nissan, Toyota
and Volkswagen have declined more than 25%.
Ferrari wins by losing the least"
In 2021, the Warren Buffett-backed carmaker shipped some 320,000 pure electric vehicles (not including the plug-in hybrid vehicles that still make up much of BYD's sales). This year, it's furiously accelerated output: In the first 11 months of 2022, it's more than doubled last year's numbers, shipping out roughly 800,000 EVs.
It hasn't quite caught up yet: Tesla notched 908,573 deliveries worldwide through September (it releases numbers quarterly) and is on track for an annual record of its own. Plus, Tesla's profit margin per vehicle dwarfs BYD's.
BYD's epic rise comes amid signs that Tesla is losing steam in China, the world's biggest market for electric cars. In October, Tesla discounted its cars in China. This week, Bloomberg reported that Tesla is slowing production at its Shanghai factory, potentially signaling decreased demand for its vehicles. (Tesla disputes the report.)
Some industry watchers like Michael Dunne, founder of the EV industry consultancy ZoZoGo, think BYD is primed to become the EV sales leader and dethrone Tesla. But comparing them is a bit like comparing apples to oranges, he says.
"It's like asking, 'will Toyota surpass Mercedes in overall sales?' Yeah, because Toyota has a full spectrum of vehicles that go from $20,000 to $80,000," Dunne told Insider. "And the lower the price point, the bigger the market of course."
BYD has a few advantages that will propel it to market dominance by 2025, according to Dunne: While Tesla is solidly a luxury brand — its cars go for around $50,000 and up — BYD sells vehicles under multiple brands and at several price points. The automaker is also one of the world's leading battery manufacturers.
So they thought it was going to 330 but the stock went to 120. Not sure if they have any credibility left on this.
good thing he front run this. He just made a promise no more stock sales. We’ll see.
Elon going Elon wasn't part of their forecast model. LOL!
Interesting in that Berkshire is also in STNE, another Brazilian based Fintech. So is Buffet bullish on Brazil in general?
STNE has been public longer, and is further along in terms of Rev's and earnings, but both have had and are expected to have significant growth.
Charts for each are pretty terrible, but do seem to have found a floor. I figure these guys have a chance to be big winners going fwd,
SOFI is a similar story from a US company. Though it, unlike the brazilians is not yet making money.
I haven't looked at STNE, but NU is growing revenue like crazy and turned in a slightly profitable quarter. That may bode well for the future. Very interesting investments for Berkshire.
Looking for some new plays for 2023!
BRKB...I haven't looked at STNE, but NU is growing revenue like crazy and turned in a slightly profitable quarter. That may bode well for the future. Very interesting investments for Berkshire.
Looking for some new plays for 2023!
My dad still has 2 BRKA shares! He bought 5 or 6 shares in the late 70s through work somehow and held all of them until starting retirement. He sold 1 for rebalancing and then was forced to sell a few others due to RMDs. I told him.....my sister can have the house. I want those 2 remaining shares!
Let's be serious about BRK for a second. What is the succession plan for Buffett and Munger?
Greg Abel.My dad still has 2 BRKA shares! He bought 5 or 6 shares in the late 70s through work somehow and held all of them until starting retirement. He sold 1 for rebalancing and then was forced to sell a few others due to RMDs. I told him.....my sister can have the house. I want those 2 remaining shares!
Let's be serious about BRK for a second. What is the succession plan for Buffett and Munger?
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...arren-buffett-successor-greg-abel/4935157001/
“For those investors who utilize 2-3 year time horizons and are looking to take advantage of the recent dislocation in high quality ’Net stocks, we highly recommend AMZN,” wrote Mahaney, who has an outperform rating on the stock. While recessionary concerns are real and earnings estimate will have to come down, “AMZN remains arguably the highest quality asset we cover in terms of Revenue and Profit outlooks,” Mahaney wrote.
This will be a very risky time for the company. Just like a high-performing mutual fund that loses its top manager. What happened to Fidelity Magellan after Peter Lynch retired? Can BRK continue on without missing a beat? Sure. But.....
2022 is in the books! Nice rally during the final hour of trading to get close to even for the day. Who has the guts to report their performance for the year? LOL!. I did a quick assessment yesterday across my 7 accounts and should be +/- 1% of the S&P 500. I will do a deep dive over the weekend.
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Not bad. The S&P was down 19.4% for the year with VOO coming in at -18.2% due to dividend payouts. I was well positioned with value funds/ETFs to mitigate the drops in my growth/tech funds. Put a lot of new money to work this year and timed the big drops in June and October very well. The highlight of the year was definitely my company's stock. It bottomed in early March just in time for annual LTI payouts. Then it took off like crazy.
You should consider some leveraged ETF plays. You have plenty of time to wait for them to regain ATHs, which means 3-5x (or maybe more). As such you wouldn't have to risk too much up front. Swing for the fences!
I was down 21.89% on my Etrade account. My annuity through my union (IBEW) was down over 35% oof. Horrible year hopefully 2023 brings better things for us all.
I did pick up some more Amazon and Apple today. Been doing the DCA with them for the last few months
I did pick up some more Amazon and Apple today. Been doing the DCA with them for the last few months
Yeah I bought AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, TSLA And sector indexes this week ahead of next year. Need a big bounce to even break even
Good grief! Was there only investment the QQQ? That's a rough number. I need to fill out my weighted average spreadsheet tomorrow, but our accounts range from -9% to -24.2%. The 9% account is my wife's old RU TIAA-CREF account that includes some real estate and traditional value (which was mandatory).
Great buys. I rebalanced all my growth/tech funds and ETFs and actually increased a few of their allocations. Also bought a sizeable position in TQQQ over the past 3-4 months. When so many quality stocks are undervalued, sometimes it's best to focus on broad index plays. Also increased my exposure to healthcare and biotech.
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Let’s hope 2023 is a big bounce back year. 5 days in 2022 made up 94% of the S&Ps losses this year—repeat 5 days. Crazy especially if you are trying to time buying/selling. Better to just DCA and rebalance with some tax harvesting
Thought you were buying leverage ETFs? Your results tells me you talk a big game but just a chicken little like the rest of us.
Please don't bring the stupid to 2023. 2/3 of my sizeable TQQQ position was bought in mid-Oct during the big dip. Got the lot at ~17.2. As such, I'm overall only down a little bit. I will buy heavy again if it goes south of 15. My LABU position is small, but positive (I will add to this one). I'm up overall with SOXL, but have been trading this one a bit. Just started messing around with YINN.
Crazy stat for 2022! Our E-Trade brokerage account is mostly on autopilot. We buy every other Friday (unless something is crazy going on, so I may wait a day or two for the dust to settle). I trade/time a bit with my fun account that is mostly leveraged ETFs, but I have a plan that I stick to.