Bullard gone will definitely help. I would rather have the market expect a higher rate increase and be pleasantly surprised with the something less. I'm just not sure we'll get that on Feb 1.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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It giving the big middle finger to the Fed. LOL!
NFLX up nicely on subscriber growth. Missed on earnings, but good on revenue.
Putin had nothing to do with inflation and if so, it was less than half a percent per blackrock research 6mos ago. that was buried by the way, interesting that they now have the loan package should the ukies survive
Saw projections estimating ten year Treasuries will reach a peak of 4.18 % in
July 2023, and the 30-year at 4.21%. I believe this is based on a Fed terminal rate of 5%.
July 2023, and the 30-year at 4.21%. I believe this is based on a Fed terminal rate of 5%.
I've been waiting to see if 5-year CDs reach 5% with Ally or Capital One. A lot of our cash is just in online savings now waiting for the Fed to top out. Don't think we will get there. I assume with another 0.25% hike in 2 weeks, those rate will at least get north of 4.5%. Likely will have to accept that and buy in.
As for the 10-year, it dropped to 3.4% and the 2-year is now way below the Fed funds rate. Huge middle finger to the Fed by the bond market. LOL!
Why would the 5yr CD hit 5%? Do you see where the 5yr tsy is? The bond market thinks short term rates will peak around 5% for the next 2 years and fall after. Seems like they got the msg from the Fed. What you are missing is that the bond market is telling you a recession is coming. Inverted curve = recession.
Fed starting to cave to the realities of inflation data:
Not a fan of Fed policy, but this seems spot on.
Waller said:
“The market has a a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away. The immaculate disinflation is going to occur,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a question-and-answer session after the speech. “We have a different view. Inflation’s not just going to miraculously melt away. It’s going to be a slower, harder slog to get inflation down and therefore we have to keep rates higher for longer and not start cutting rates by the end of the year.”
Waller said:
“The market has a a very optimistic view that inflation is just going to melt away. The immaculate disinflation is going to occur,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a question-and-answer session after the speech. “We have a different view. Inflation’s not just going to miraculously melt away. It’s going to be a slower, harder slog to get inflation down and therefore we have to keep rates higher for longer and not start cutting rates by the end of the year.”
Meanwhile…
“This archetype of a lot of (increased) price, and volume down is down is going to be the model for most" companies, said Andrew Choi, portfolio manager at Parnassus Investments.
P&G raises sales forecast on price hikes, sees volumes fall
“This archetype of a lot of (increased) price, and volume down is down is going to be the model for most" companies, said Andrew Choi, portfolio manager at Parnassus Investments.
P&G raises sales forecast on price hikes, sees volumes fall
COVID lockdowns are over and so is the temp blip of inflation. Look at the data. It's already gone.
Long time AAPL bear Morningstar turning bullish:
Citing YoY is moronic. Sorry it is. The Fed royally f'ed up in 2021 when inflation was raging due to the YoY math lag (which at the time was saying inflation was still low).
Also, the CPI shelter metric is garbage and still uses data from BEFORE the Fed started raising rates. Think about that stupidity for a while. LOL!
QoQ inflation is negative. Facts are facts.
Now if we could just get those damn EGG prices back down to $3 bucks a dozen LOL. Damn bird flu!
https://www.foxla.com/news/rent-a-chicken-rental-service-los-angeles-soaring-egg-prices
https://www.foxla.com/news/rent-a-chicken-rental-service-los-angeles-soaring-egg-prices
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Cal-Maine Foods controls 20% of the retail egg market and reported quarterly that it's sales were up 110% and gross profits up more than 600% over the same quarter in the prior fiscal year, according to a late December filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Time to crack open "Big Egg" and send them scrambling.
Time to crack open "Big Egg" and send them scrambling.
I don’t disagree but that’s what the Fed is looking at and they want that down to 2% unless we get high levels of unemployment which hasn’t happened yet.
HA! HA! Great photo. Eggs/bird flu is a nice summary of this round of inflation. It's not because of any Fed issues that rates can address. It was about COVID, lockdowns, excessive gov spending, Putin, bird flu, etc. Thankfully, most of these big things have resolved and so has inflation.Now if we could just get those damn EGG prices back down to $3 bucks a dozen LOL. Damn bird flu!
https://www.foxla.com/news/rent-a-chicken-rental-service-los-angeles-soaring-egg-prices
Agreed, but you are starting to see cracks in the Fed and their awful understanding of simple math.
Recent speech by Harker:
"Survey data are an important tool in the economic business. At the Fed, we look at everything from big broad numbers like GDP and employment growth to more granular figures like restaurant reservations and mobility data. These data — hard data — tell us a lot.
But as a policymaker, I’ve come to believe that soft data like survey results are perhaps equally important to getting a full understanding of our economic situation. Candidly, an overemphasis on hard data can lead to policy errors; last year, hard data suggested to us that inflation would be “transitory,” whereas the soft data we were hearing from our contacts indicated that rising prices were proving more persistent than we may have expected. Which is to say, paying due attention to soft data is vitally important to effective policymaking."
Amen! This is a nice step forward and I'm optimistic that with Bullard getting the boot in 2023 (no vote) and Goolsbee (pragmatic with political experience) coming in, the Fed is learning from their mistakes. The market is right. The market understands that data better than the Fed. The Fed needs to catch up with how they use data.
Paid $3.59 yesterday at ShopRite for a dozen large brown. White were $4.19..
Time to walk back my concerns on BTC. This move has legs. Will reassess at 25k/28k.
I thought Q2 was going to be the move, but looks like it’s coming a little early. Will be interesting to see if it sticks, but I don’t think we see below $20k anytime soon. 2024 will begin the next big crypto bull run and an AI craze will kickstart it, maybe as early as this year.
Makes sense. But stiff resistance there as well.
Why don’t you guys take it to the crypto thread?to the other thread
There's too much thesis creep going on in that thread.