MSFT getting aggressive with AI:
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Musk was a founder of Open AI.
He left board (2018) due to potential conflict with Tesla AI development but he's still a donor (as is Peter Theil)
He left board (2018) due to potential conflict with Tesla AI development but he's still a donor (as is Peter Theil)
MSFT with a strong quarter. Awaiting conference call for guidance:
Golden cross coming soon?
You were excited about this quarter from MSFT? Interesting.
You claim that inflation has not only peaked but is trending down, correct? What do you predict will happen to bond yields if that trend continues?
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Inflation has been negative for the past 3-4 months. Great Q by MSFT.....once again!
My POV:
1. We already had the recession, Q1 and Q2 of 2022.
2. We will not have another in 2023 or the near future.
3. Inflation has been negative for the past 3-4 months.
4. Inflation was essentially COVID, lockdowns, gov overspending, and Putin. Most of these have been resolved and the rest getting much better. That's why inflation is going down.
5. The Fed probably didn't need to do much since inflation wasn't due to normal economics. Sure, tighten a bit, but they already went way too far.
6. The bond market is giving the Fed the middle finger and not believing their "tough talk" anymore. We all see the data.
Good charts, thanks for posting!
Answering my second question maybe the key to finding your next investment opportunity. I hope you are enjoying your investment in LABU. I will try to continue to steer you in the right direction.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Thanks for the insight. T-6 inflation annualized is 1.8% I believe. Wait til march. Wasnt the march 2022 reading 1.2%? Which means if it comes in at .2% or lower it’ll knock a full point off the headline number
This guy has no idea what he is talking about. we have an inverted yield curve which is a leading indicator of a recession.
Is this some QAnon BS? I love the sources that this guy uses to come up with his charts. Yeah, I can just as easily make up stuff.
+1
And the next few months enjoy huge step-ups in the base comparator months (i.e., Jan-Mar 2022). Get rid of the garbage CPI shelter data and use Case Shiller and other real-time metrics, we have been living in a deflationary world for at least 4 months. Inflation is gone. Just takes a while for the bullsh!t math to catch up.
Already had the recession. The curve is now inverted due to the Fed and the bond market calling their bluff. Read and learn. The economist that literally wrote the paper on the inverted yield curve says no dice this time. LOL!
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
We already know what oer prints will be since theyre so lagged. And that makes up around 1/3 of cpi
Very true. Even if inflation magically became 10% tomorrow, the CPI will still go down for the next 6 months or so. LOL!
No. Lot's of resistance for S&P 500 here at this level. It needs decisively break out here for the golden cross to come true. I don't see it happening.Golden cross coming soon?
I was wondering what you were even responding to with my reply from awhile back lol.Golden cross coming soon?
Agree with @rurahrah000, you need a breakout and hold from this area. I've mentioned this area up to maybe 4100ish as a resistance before. It's also bumping up against downward trendline which it has bumped against 3 times before and been rejected. Is the 4th time the charm? 50WMA average also has been resistance. 200WMA has been support though. Kinda wonder if a descending triangle might be there too.
Anyone who felt like they missed the run in defense stocks, some significant recent pull backs in the likes of NOC and GD.
NOC has been the better performer overall(though it has the bigger more recent drop) but both have charts that look great since the Covid dip, as well as 10 year charts. As well as the fundamental case of the world spending big on defense in upcoming years.
I've owned NOC, should have taken profits in Dec to offset portfolio losses, would have been smart timing given the huge run, didn't, so instead added on the pull back.
NOC has been the better performer overall(though it has the bigger more recent drop) but both have charts that look great since the Covid dip, as well as 10 year charts. As well as the fundamental case of the world spending big on defense in upcoming years.
I've owned NOC, should have taken profits in Dec to offset portfolio losses, would have been smart timing given the huge run, didn't, so instead added on the pull back.
Sold TSLA $115 Jan 27th puts a week or so back for $1.09. Currently at $.22 with it's big run.
Should I close out those puts today with earnings tonight?
Not that I'm expecting a 20% drop off earnings, but say there is a 10% drop, I can sell more puts again tomorrow. Kind of doubting a good report tonight.
Should I close out those puts today with earnings tonight?
Not that I'm expecting a 20% drop off earnings, but say there is a 10% drop, I can sell more puts again tomorrow. Kind of doubting a good report tonight.
What are the expectations? Normally, that's what really matters. A "not as bad as feared bad report" can still pop the stock. However, TSLA has bounced nicely since the recent bottom. Guessing this stuff is hard!
$1.13 EPSWhat are the expectations? Normally, that's what really matters. A "not as bad as feared bad report" can still pop the stock. However, TSLA has bounced nicely since the recent bottom. Guessing this stuff is hard!
$24.2B revs.
Both would be ATH's.
And I did buy back those puts.
My short-terms play continue to be LABU, SOXL, YINN, and NUGT. I'm thinking about a few other precious or rare metal plays. I believe that market will continue to be hot, so leverage is the way to go.
I'll check out NOC and GD.
Interesting day. I guess I should have bought in the morning!
FMV update on MSFT, still significantly undervalued:
FMV update on MSFT, still significantly undervalued:
Yup, I looked this morning and figured things would keep dropping. About a hour ago I got some more Apple and Amazon was lower this morning. I've been DCAing them for the last few months. Also picked up some AMD today. All are planned for long term holds for me.
Nice double beat for TSLA:
www.cnbc.com
Overall, the earnings season has started strong. Large majority of S&P 500 companies beating expectations.
In other news, huge buyback for CVX:
Tesla reports record revenue and beats on earnings
Electric vehicle maker Tesla reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.
Overall, the earnings season has started strong. Large majority of S&P 500 companies beating expectations.
In other news, huge buyback for CVX:
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Ya, will be interesting to see if the bear's back off the mindset that earnings projections need to come down.Nice double beat for TSLA:
Tesla reports record revenue and beats on earnings
Electric vehicle maker Tesla reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.
Overall, the earnings season has started strong. Large majority of S&P 500 companies beating expectations.
In other news, huge buyback for CVX:
No, they double beat by juicing the regulatory credits. Operating cash flow was down 29% from last year, and down 36% from last quarter, coming in at $3.28 billion.
One of the super bears on CNBC grudgingly admitted that earnings have been good so far. Funny stuff!
V with solid earnings after the bell. V/MA are my faves in that space. Just payment processors in my eyes, not fintech.
I think I mentioned 180-185 was an area of support awhile back…think it went as low as 175. It’s had a nice run off the lows. Same with MA. Good economy or bad, people will use their CCs. No credit risk on their end either.
I think I mentioned 180-185 was an area of support awhile back…think it went as low as 175. It’s had a nice run off the lows. Same with MA. Good economy or bad, people will use their CCs. No credit risk on their end either.
Both are good companies but consumer debt is really high and delinquencies are expected to rise as well.
PCE price index out tomorrow morning will likely impact the markets in a big way in either direction. If it comes in lighter than expected, it will be another sign that the rate of inflation is slowing. This number will highly influence the Fed's rate hike decision next week.
Yea but like I said they don’t carry the credit risk which is why I like them. They’re just processing the transactions. The banks like Citi or whomever that back the cards are the ones who carry the credit risk. AMEX carries credit risk too IIRC but they go for a higher credit quality customer.
Edit. I’ll give an example of GS backing the Apple card which is MA IIRC. GS lost like a billion dollars on the Apple card but that has nothing to do with MA.
It is MA, just looked it up on my phone. I have one but I don’t pay attention hah.
Patience will be rewarded. The Fed's terminal rate is expected to be 5.25%. We're at 4.25%. So a ways to go. Earnings will retreat, as will markets. Remember, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 29% during recessions since WWII. And a recession is coming. DON'T FIGHT THE FED. Don't fight history. Don't be in a hurry. The GDP uptick? Consumers spending money they don't have....
The bear is getting nervous. LOL!
The Fed is stupid and always changes its mind. Inflation data rules the day and we all see what is happening. If that changes, we will reassess. If it continues, the Fed is in a no-win situation:
Option #1 = Grow up, accept reality, pause and then pivot because inflation is gone.
Option #2 = Be a dick, raise rates for no reason, break something, cut rates and restart QE.
Big win-win for patient investors. Plan accordingly.