OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Street perception of a 25 bip hike didn’t change after the CPI numbers
Should he change his last name to Mayo?Perhaps a name change would be a good idea?
I’m looking at SCHW before tomorrow opening. They are getting a ton of flight to quality deposits
Tell us more about the executive boards of the 2008 failed banks.
Just added to VB and VTV today (since they were hit hard the past few days).
Bonus #2 drops tomorrow, so I am locked, loaded, and ready to kick butt!
Bullish on SCHW. I owe a lot via DODGX.
Today aside, Uncle Chuck has had a few rough days. Sold off like a regional bank.
I highlighted a few days ago that chuckie had to move afs to htm which was a red flag.
the equities have this wrong here, pricing paper to cheap right now
If moved to HTM, could they leg out in a few years and spread out losses, or is this a one time destination?
lol it just keeps getting worse and worse for anyone defending them
I thought the mf global was bad.......
Because
a) we are in the early stage of the contraction phase of this cycle and
b) the amount of leveraged long holding of assets is large, it is likely that this bank failure will be followed by many more problems before the contraction phase of the cycle runs its course.
Before the contraction phase of the cycle ends, history and logic have shown that there will be
1) forced sales of assets at very low prices that require big losses to be reported and cause further contractions in lending
, 2) equity dilution, i.e., selling at prices that are at significant discounts to conservative estimates of the present values of their future cash flows,
3) attractive acquisition prices for strong synergistic companies to buy distressed ones,
4) credit problems being a negative for markets and the economy, and eventually
5) the Fed easing and bank regulators providing money, credit, and guarantees because the problem becomes system-threatening.
At this turning point into the contraction, it is too early for the Fed to ease, but I will be watching closely what it does as the trade-offs become tough. Looking backward rather than ahead, tightening rather than easing seems appropriate. Looking ahead, it’s likely that it won’t be long before the problems pick up, which will eventually lead the Fed and bank regulators to act in a protective way. So I think we are approaching the turning point from the strong tightening phase into the contraction phase of the short-term credit/debt cycle.
a) we are in the early stage of the contraction phase of this cycle and
b) the amount of leveraged long holding of assets is large, it is likely that this bank failure will be followed by many more problems before the contraction phase of the cycle runs its course.
Before the contraction phase of the cycle ends, history and logic have shown that there will be
1) forced sales of assets at very low prices that require big losses to be reported and cause further contractions in lending
, 2) equity dilution, i.e., selling at prices that are at significant discounts to conservative estimates of the present values of their future cash flows,
3) attractive acquisition prices for strong synergistic companies to buy distressed ones,
4) credit problems being a negative for markets and the economy, and eventually
5) the Fed easing and bank regulators providing money, credit, and guarantees because the problem becomes system-threatening.
At this turning point into the contraction, it is too early for the Fed to ease, but I will be watching closely what it does as the trade-offs become tough. Looking backward rather than ahead, tightening rather than easing seems appropriate. Looking ahead, it’s likely that it won’t be long before the problems pick up, which will eventually lead the Fed and bank regulators to act in a protective way. So I think we are approaching the turning point from the strong tightening phase into the contraction phase of the short-term credit/debt cycle.
Nice summary of what is really going on with inflation:
With independent measures showing rents on a downward trajectory, some analysts worried that housing was overstating core CPI. The rent measures in the CPI tend to lag the independent gauges.
"Housing costs are dropping yet the flawed methodology of using outdated leases, has today's data showing another laughable large jump in housing costs," said Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income Advisors in Minneapolis, Minnesota. "The reality is rents and home prices are falling so core CPI is running closer to a 3.5% annualized rate."
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That's YoY core. 3.5% and falling fast. Looking at core MoM, the 0.5% increase is also garbage. Shelter is 40% of core which rose based on CPI 0.8%. The average of real-time indicators that track OER is -0.6% MoM. So let's do the math and make the change:
Back out Garbage CPI Shelter and CPI core drops to 0.18%. Add in the real-time data and MoM CPI core is actually -0.06%.
Any questions?
#inflationisover
With independent measures showing rents on a downward trajectory, some analysts worried that housing was overstating core CPI. The rent measures in the CPI tend to lag the independent gauges.
"Housing costs are dropping yet the flawed methodology of using outdated leases, has today's data showing another laughable large jump in housing costs," said Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income Advisors in Minneapolis, Minnesota. "The reality is rents and home prices are falling so core CPI is running closer to a 3.5% annualized rate."
-----
That's YoY core. 3.5% and falling fast. Looking at core MoM, the 0.5% increase is also garbage. Shelter is 40% of core which rose based on CPI 0.8%. The average of real-time indicators that track OER is -0.6% MoM. So let's do the math and make the change:
Back out Garbage CPI Shelter and CPI core drops to 0.18%. Add in the real-time data and MoM CPI core is actually -0.06%.
Any questions?
#inflationisover
Being reported that Signature Bank was being investigated for money laundering before the bank run started.
Imagine how surprised Barney Frank will be to hear that.
Imagine how surprised Barney Frank will be to hear that.
that is a LOT in one offering and my guess more than 3/4 will be structured debt
red flag
I thought that was a listing of total over a period of time. I could be wrong but can check. Usually, debt offerings are less, much less, and structured in USD and Euro now for international investors who want fx exposure for matching without adding spot fx exposure.
it's just nuts the amount of debt that corporations are on the hook for
couple of notes
sig and svb gave 10s of millions to blm and social woke nonsense
cs deserves this as they lost neutrality and the number of countries represented by large withdrawls in conjunction with this is astounding. go woke go broke go nwo go no......
States are banning non us backed currience (btc etc) but horray for SD gov vetoing recent bill
you better buckle up boys and girls, gonna be rough out there
sig and svb gave 10s of millions to blm and social woke nonsense
cs deserves this as they lost neutrality and the number of countries represented by large withdrawls in conjunction with this is astounding. go woke go broke go nwo go no......
States are banning non us backed currience (btc etc) but horray for SD gov vetoing recent bill
you better buckle up boys and girls, gonna be rough out there
I’m not commenting on this specific deal but shelf registrations allow a company to register securities with the SEC for up to a specific amount. The registrant does not need to sell all of the securities (amount) at that time; rather, amounts can be taken down (sold) over time. Also, the registrant is not required to sell or take down the registered amount.
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CS has been stuck in a decade plus of tumult, not going to comment on your last part, but my favorite of the ongoing CS issues: when the last CEO got sacked for an internal espionage case that involved a high speed chase around Zurich. If i remember right, the espionage started because the CEO was in a feud with the subject of the spying (another high profile CS banker) over trees planted between their neighboring vacation homes.
CS has had issues but none that result in the actual death of the bank but the death knell was killing any sense of neutrality. The amount of outflows by various regions after the freezing of Russian assets is the nail. NO different than Chase, Citi, Wells, or BofA getting billions every hour of inflows where regionals are losing those (leads to bank failures). zero difference
I believe we discussed this way back when that where would be consequences. Can't maneuver if you don't have the cash to do so. Anyone who thinks Saudis are going to be all in after signing the brokered deal with China and Iran are fking delusional
and once again, POLITICS for those of you, hint hint looking at you, who refuse to accept or opine that importance of politics in mkts activity. fking leftists simply cannot accept reality but will live with the consequences. politics matter, smarten up
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right, that was the 66 billion comment earlier
Correct. I was confirming and pointing out that a registrant isn’t required (or be on the hook) to use any or all of the amount over time. The shelf creates the opportunity, but not the obligation, to raise the amount.
Fed pause now?
PPI plummeted:
Data showed retail sales fell 0.4% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a contraction of 0.3%.
A separate report showed producer prices rose 4.6% in February on an annual basis, against expectations of a 5.4% rise.
Traders' bets were still equally split between odds of a 25 basis point rate hike and a pause at the Fed's March meeting.
JPMORGAN: "CPI doesn't really matter. What happened over the last 3 days has done Powell's job for him. Credit creation at banks will collapse & the economy will slow. Inflation will taper off as a result. Any rally on the view that the Fed doesn't need to raise anymore is silly. If they don't raise, it's because of systemic risk to the banking system. Not a positive."
Swiz dropping neutrality was one of the dumbest things I've ever seen and the media barely covered it. I know there is a big push in the country to get back to neutrality. Hopefully they are successful.
Have to question if neutrality is really the thing here; UBS doesn’t appear to be on thin ice…
Does it have a disproportionate impact on CS, perhaps, but if so that’s likely because CS is already a damaged, fragile institution.
Does it have a disproportionate impact on CS, perhaps, but if so that’s likely because CS is already a damaged, fragile institution.
It's been collapsing since 2008. It's a scandal ridden, poorly run bank and has been for a long time. Most European banks are the same.
They also have much more problematic issues with duration risk since they hold some assets that were issued at negative rates. Who is going to buy those?
I do remember some social media buzz about CS failing within the last year or so. It survived that mini-panic. As stated above, years of scandal and crisis there
Also, when the investigation start in the real Congress, we will finally find the money laundering venues for the Hillary Clinton child sex trafficking rings.
I hear both SIVB and Signature was used.