OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
@Morrischiano - Follow-up to my post above. Morningstar super bullish on Moderna:
Moderna: Long-Term Guidance at Vaccines Day Represents Upside to Our $266 Fair Value
Analyst Note | Updated Apr 11, 2023
Moderna’s vaccine day provided more support for our belief in its ability to expand vaccine revenue beyond COVID-19, given the firm’s rapid pace of development and flexible manufacturing. We’re maintaining our $266 fair value estimate. Management offered a range for 2027 respiratory vaccine sales—including the COVID-19 vaccine and leading phase 3 programs in RSV and influenza—of $8 billion-$15 billion, which is above our own $7.7 billion estimate. While Moderna’s phase 3 efficacy study for flu vaccine mRNA-1010 did not show non-inferiority to approved flu vaccines at an interim look, we expect this was due to the small number of cases seen so far in the study and not an indicator that the vaccine is inferior. We still think the vaccine is positioned to launch in 2024, and we’re bullish on the firm’s pipeline of next-generation respiratory vaccines and combination vaccines, as well as advancing programs in other infectious diseases (including latent viruses like HIV and CMV), oncology, and rare diseases. Research and development costs are growing substantially in 2023 and are likely to continue to grow over the next few years, and we now forecast losses at Moderna through 2025. However, platform costs are shrinking over time, and costs could begin to drop as more of the first wave of programs complete clinical studies and smaller studies are initiated for combination vaccines. We think the firm’s lead in mRNA technology and expanding evidence of efficacy across multiple therapeutic areas could support an economic moat if the firm stays on track to launch several new vaccines over the next few years.
Business Strategy and Outlook | Updated Dec 13, 2022
Moderna's mRNA technology has gained rapid validation as sales of its COVID-19 vaccine soared in 2021, but we think the firm has yet to secure a narrow economic moat around its business, largely due to uncertainties tied to an evolving virus and the changing competitive landscape for innovative vaccines.
In a record-breaking span of just 11 months, Moderna created, developed, manufactured, and got regulatory authorization for mRNA-1273, a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine that is one of the first two mRNA vaccines ever authorized (alongside Pfizer/BioNTech's BNT162b2). The pandemic accelerated Moderna's evolution into a commercial-stage biotech, and we expect that the firm's ramp-up in manufacturing and clinical know-how will pave the way for faster timelines for additional programs. Moderna's mRNA platform, involving rapid design and similar manufacturing across programs, allows the company to pursue multiple programs in parallel. Moderna also retains full rights to most of its programs, although partnerships with Merck and Vertex help support its efforts in oncology and cystic fibrosis.
Moderna reported $17.7 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021, and we model nearly $19 billion in sales in 2022 as demand for first doses has declined but demand for boosters expands. We see potential for continued revenue in the mid-single-digit billions annually if higher-risk populations continue to receive annual vaccines beyond the pandemic, although there is high uncertainty around the number of long-term competitors (including new mRNA players) and pricing.
Moderna's most advanced program outside COVID-19 is for cytomegalovirus, a leading cause of birth defects, but several other vaccines are advancing into late-stage trials, including respiratory virus vaccines for RSV and influenza. We see each of these as more than $1 billion annual sales opportunities. Moderna is also pursuing a broad spectrum of other therapeutic indications, from cancer to cardiology to rare diseases, with an expanding early-stage development pipeline.
Fair Value and Profit Drivers | Updated Dec 13, 2022
We're raising our fair value estimate to $266 per share from $232 following positive phase 2 data for Merck and Moderna's personalized cancer vaccine, mRNA-4157. We have raised our assumed probability of approval to 50% from 20% and now assume Moderna could record $2 billion in sales from the program by 2031.
We think mRNA-1273, the firm's authorized COVID-19 vaccine, should generate $18.6 billion in sales in 2022, followed by roughly $6.9 billion in 2023 and $4 billion in annual sales beyond, due to recurring boosters in high-risk populations. We expect that Moderna could launch its next prophylactic vaccines for CMV (phase 3) and influenza (entered phase 3 in 2022) in 2024, followed by other potential launches (hMPV/PIV3, RSV) in 2025. We see 70% probabilities of approval for the firm's most advanced vaccine programs in CMV and flu, and 50% probabilities for hMPV/PIV3 and RSV. In oncology, beyond mRNA-4157, we assign a 10%-30% probabilities of approval to the firm's programs, including Moderna's KRAS program and intratumoral triplet. Overall, this results in more than $16 billion in total probability-adjusted annual revenue by 2031. We expect operating margins will easily surpass 40% by 2030 and model margins above 50%, even with continued strong investment in research and development. We assign Moderna an average level of systemic risk, resulting in a cost of equity (and weighted average cost of capital) of 9%, in line with its early commercial-stage biotech peers.
I'm not sure what you are trying to say....
while I have plenty of Au....... and have never listened to goldbugs........ I was just responding to the general point of the need for US Commercial Bank (and now late-entry Money Market) Deposits to wring-out to closer to the pre-pandemic levels...
My concerns come much more from the David Kellys or Gita Gopinaths of the world...
in any event, I dca the **** out of OEF and QQQM...... I'm long in this market for life........ but to assume it's 'all up from here' is silly......
It's fun to choose sides and bicker, but overall, we all probably do very similar things with the majority of our portfolios. Anyway, why OEF over VOO? Just curious.
I like the narrower window on sp100 (vs 500) during market uncertainty....
plus I'm superstitious and stay away from Vanguard..
Super concentrated. 41% of OEF is in its top ten holdings (101 companies in all):
| Apple Inc | 10.49 | Jun 30, 2007 | 790,877,273 | -2.30 | 27.10 | Unlock | Unlock | Technology | |
| Microsoft Corp | 9.23 | Feb 28, 2002 | 696,234,692 | 1.68 | 26.18 | Unlock | Unlock | Technology | |
| Amazon.com Inc | 3.91 | Jan 31, 2009 | 294,587,741 | -34.17 | 58.48 | Unlock | Unlock | Consumer Cyclical | |
| NVIDIA Corp | 2.93 | Jun 19, 2018 | 221,026,607 | 19.26 | 58.82 | Unlock | Unlock | Technology | |
| Alphabet Inc Class A | 2.75 | Aug 26, 2019 | 207,503,049 | -17.29 | 19.38 | Unlock | Unlock | Communication Services | |
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B | 2.48 | Feb 18, 2010 | 186,911,871 | -8.14 | 21.37 | Unlock | Unlock | Financial Services | |
| Alphabet Inc Class C | 2.42 | Apr 03, 2014 | 182,213,558 | -16.96 | 19.46 | Unlock | Unlock | Communication Services | |
| Tesla Inc | 2.20 | Dec 18, 2020 | 166,134,015 | -45.45 | 46.30 | Unlock | Unlock | Consumer Cyclical | |
| UnitedHealth Group Inc | 2.14 | Jan 31, 2008 | 160,973,999 | -0.78 | 20.92 | Unlock | Unlock | Healthcare | |
| Meta Platforms Inc Class A | 2.09 |
soon you’re going to get a gold bug coming out of the woodwork telling you he bot gold (large) in 2015 and has doubled his money… in hindsight of course.
See what I did there?
Actually, it's only 9 holdings if you combine the two Alphabet share classes.
My eye doctor is buying as much silver as he can these days. We discussed for 20 minutes after my appointment was over lol. He brings his laptop and says “look…it’s all back ordered!” I’m like “TreasuryDirect is offering I bonds at a nice rate.” Lol
yup - the index is gonna be driven by those ~20 anyway... so why not focus...
the alternate (which I also like) - is equal weight S&P....
but, straight-up SP index is caught in the middle... jmo
silver..? lolz.......... the devil's metal for a reason............
premiums will eat you alive......
Just reposting my trade idea from a month ago.
VIX closed at 17.90 today. I’m getting ready to buy.
Big banks crushing earnings.
Yesterday Bloomberg spent the morning talking about inflation going down without mentioning the big impact energy prices had on the number.
Today they are talking about how retail sales are down because of energy prices were down. The quality of Bloomberg's analysis has been terrible in recent years. They used to be great.
Yesterday Bloomberg spent the morning talking about inflation going down without mentioning the big impact energy prices had on the number.
Today they are talking about how retail sales are down because of energy prices were down. The quality of Bloomberg's analysis has been terrible in recent years. They used to be great.
Fed Hawk Capitulation:
Exclusive-Fed can 'hit the mark and hold' with one more rate hike, Bostic says
ATLANTA (Reuters) - One more quarter-percentage-point interest rate hike can allow the Federal Reserve to end its tightening cycle with some confidence inflation will steadily return to the U.S. central bank's 2% target, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said.
Recent inflation data, including this week's reports of slowing consumer price increases and falling producer price inflation, "are consistent with us moving one more time," Bostic told Reuters in an interview on Thursday. "We've got a lot of momentum suggesting that we're on the path to 2%."
Exclusive-Fed can 'hit the mark and hold' with one more rate hike, Bostic says
ATLANTA (Reuters) - One more quarter-percentage-point interest rate hike can allow the Federal Reserve to end its tightening cycle with some confidence inflation will steadily return to the U.S. central bank's 2% target, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said.
Recent inflation data, including this week's reports of slowing consumer price increases and falling producer price inflation, "are consistent with us moving one more time," Bostic told Reuters in an interview on Thursday. "We've got a lot of momentum suggesting that we're on the path to 2%."
You’re right. I was skeptical of the prices they were offering and any premiums but didn’t realize it was so much higher than gold. Outrageous. I guess he was impressed that the prices were being updated live at least so he didn’t seem concerned.
+1
Looks like a clean sweep for today's bank earnings. Now with the Fed tightening looking more and more over, it's time to move on to the next bull rally (or at least prepping for it).
Another big earnings win for UnitedHealth:
Dow stock UnitedHealth (UNH) adjusted first-quarter EPS $6.26 versus $6.06 expected. Revenue $91.9 billion versus $89.4 billion expected. Guidance boosted to range of $24.50 per share to $25. Classic UNH beat and raise.
Bodes well for the entire sector.
Dow stock UnitedHealth (UNH) adjusted first-quarter EPS $6.26 versus $6.06 expected. Revenue $91.9 billion versus $89.4 billion expected. Guidance boosted to range of $24.50 per share to $25. Classic UNH beat and raise.
Bodes well for the entire sector.
Glad I sold most of my UNH before the earnings. Normally I don’t like to keep the stock because it’s 50/50 in which direction it will go. Down 15 points today buying again. Nice 60 points gain from the low.
UNH is textbook buy and hold. Great company with outstanding leadership. #1 holding for my PRHSX (at 7.45%).
You know me, I’m a trader but I only trade quality stocks and if I have to hold more than a year to make a profit then I will. I agree it’s a great stock and is good for buy and hold.
I'm playing around with a little trading, but I'm buy and hold at my core. Regardless, a trade here and there is fun and I'm enjoying doing so with those leveraged ETFs. Still not a big individual stock guy.
they do a fair job putting massive amounts of data and opinions into some context - but it requires you to watch on an on-going basis - and listen just as closely to what is NOT said - as much as what is actually said. It's helpful for trends.....
that said, the sure do over-play every little story - to make it today's headline... every little thing.. CPI TUESDAY!!!!!!!!!! Jobs Friday!!!!!!!!!! Citi Earnings!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The print (e-print) articles have become horribly slanted... ESG-driven, pro-China, etc... They must be read carefully (if at all)...
I really like very specific shows (Surveillance, Real Rate) - but agree, others are crap at this point...
24/7 news means you need to sell news 24/7.
I appreciate the access to information, but not a great business model for the media!
19/6...
they run "buy gold coins" and "The All New Ninja Foodi" commercials the rest of the time...
Bloomberg News is a money losing pet project for Mike Bloomberg (I worked at Bloomberg Tradebook in 2008-10). They only cared about the fixed income markets at Bloomberg News back then and I still feel that they are way ahead of WSJ and CNBC in that coverage. Their news webpage went for clickbait money like 5 yrs ago and it is sad to see.
I work at BBG and I they have been figuring out for years how to monetize news and our analyst arm. With AI evolution now this will happen in many ways and news being a primary source for data for the LLM
Do they still have a mandatory 10 hour work day policy? Are you guys back in the office 5 days a week?
Looks like you posted the wrong link, here you go…
Big banks likely made an insane amount of money because everyone moved money form SVB, First Republic, etc into the big banks. Everyone I know did that without hesitation. Let's see how the earnings of the regional banks and other companies especially Tesla.
These folks were decidedly--dare I say--"bearish" on their outlook as expressed in this episode.