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OT: Stock and Investment Thread

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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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RUAldo said:
Next week or two will be real test. There is so much FOMO still on the periphery of the market - will they buy this dip?
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I think it's a matter of when they buy the dip, not if.

Unless the rug is pulled on the economy(or some off the board possibility like China invading Taiwan) I don't see the catalyst for a huge drop.

But the market is expensive, at least the major drivers of the indexes are, so a pull back does make sense.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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Recent Compound and Friends guest JC Parets, was advocating buying long dated out of the money calls because they are so cheap due to the lack of volatility.

The lack of volatility has led me to pretty much stop selling covered calls. Just not enough premium, especially when I've watched multiple stocks rip right past the strike and I miss out on the upside.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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QCOM JBLU and LUV proving to my portfolio that a dud is a dud even if it does go on a run now and then.
 
K

Knight Owl

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
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mildone said:
Bad for stocks. Good for corporate accountability.

So what are we investors to do? Perhaps hasten the creation of giant publicly listed law firms that specialize in tort law. Then we can all invest in them as a hedge.

Or buy gold. Hm...
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Just buy stonks instead as those companies never get sued and their stocks always go up at the proper 45 degree angle.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
19,192
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RU-05 said:
Recent Compound and Friends guest JC Parets, was advocating buying long dated out of the money calls because they are so cheap due to the lack of volatility.

The lack of volatility has led me to pretty much stop selling covered calls. Just not enough premium, especially when I've watched multiple stocks rip right past the strike and I miss out on the upside.
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I have been seeing this as well. Still learning so I may be wrong, but it seems like long dated out of the money calls have the best comparable delta. So they move more for every $1 movement of the underlying assess as other calls (shorter duration and closer to the money). Is this right? LOL.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,651
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113
T2Kplus20 said:
I have been seeing this as well. Still learning so I may be wrong, but it seems like long dated out of the money calls have the best comparable delta. So they move more for every $1 movement of the underlying assess as other calls (shorter duration and closer to the money). Is this right? LOL.
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Maybe way out of the money?

But short term at a similar strike will move more then long dated.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
19,192
113
RU-05 said:
Let me know when you figure it out:)
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In the meanwhile, got out of my TMF calls, which didn't go down much with the drop today. Weird? Bought at 0.15 and sold at 0.15, so only out the fees. I think there is a TMF play with rates spiking so much. Either a LEAP call or just buying it.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
19,192
113
RU-05 said:
Let me know when you figure it out:)
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Okay, I was right, it's a ratio that is applied to the call price. So, to estimate the movement of the call, you need the delta and price:

---
Examples of Delta
Let's assume there is a publicly-traded company called BigCorp. Shares of its stock are bought and sold on a stock exchange, and there are put options and call options traded for those shares.

The delta for the call option on BigCorp shares is 0.35. That means that a $1 change in the price of BigCorp stock generates a $0.35 change in the price of BigCorp call options. Thus, if BigCorp’s shares trade at $20 and the call option trades at $2, a change in the price of BigCorp’s shares to $21 means the call option will increase to a price of $2.35.
---

So, in this case, the stock only moves 5%, but the call option moves 17.5%. Even though the delta is low compared to an in the money calls, it moves the option relatively more due to its lower price. WORD! :)
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Approaching even on my NKLA position. Which is incredible.

I did DCA down a bit, wasn't ballsy enough to add some when it was below $1. Over $3 now, with earnings tomorrow.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
19,192
113
RU-05 said:
Approaching even on my NKLA position. Which is incredible.

I did DCA down a bit, wasn't ballsy enough to add some when it was below $1. Over $3 now, with earnings tomorrow.
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What is the holy hell convinced you to buy NKLA in the first place? :)
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
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Anyone know why MULN was up almost 40%? I threw $1K at it a few weeks ago although didn’t catch the lows. Just sold now.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
19,192
113
Amazing earnings season to date:

Of the 418 companies that have reported so far (84% of the S&P 500):
- Overall, 81% are beating estimates, and those that “beat” are beating by a median of 7%.
- Of the 19% missing, those are missing by a median of -5%.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
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jtung230 said:
Hike is not the issue anymore. The question is how long do the rates stay over 5%
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High rates don't matter as much for the market as the movement. If up is done, we are one step closer to lower. Remember, the market is forward looking by 6-12 months.
 
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R

rurahrah000

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Aug 21, 2010
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T2Kplus20 said:
High rates don't matter as much for the market as the movement. If up is done, we are one step closer to lower. Remember, the market is forward looking by 6-12 months.
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Agree that rate hikes are likely over, but high rates for longer won’t help your TMF trade.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
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rurahrah000 said:
Agree that rate hikes are likely over, but high rates for longer won’t help your TMF trade.
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I missed today's bounce for TMF. LOL! I'm a bit confused on what to do, so I may just do a LEAPS call for Jan 2025 and let it ride for a while.

I guess doing an Aug 11 call just out of the money would be a nice gamble (assuming the next CPI comes in tame). Big money no whammy! :)
 
R

rurahrah000

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Aug 21, 2010
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T2Kplus20 said:
I missed today's bounce for TMF. LOL! I'm a bit confused on what to do, so I may just do a LEAPS call for Jan 2025 and let it ride for a while.

I guess doing an Aug 11 call just out of the money would be a nice gamble (assuming the next CPI comes in tame). Big money no whammy! :)
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There is resistance to the downside in TMF here, so it may temporarily go higher, but IMHO it will go lower in the long run. I don't have as strong of a conviction here as Ackman who is obviously short long term treasuries and therefore long TMV. I am not in the treasuries game for the moment and more focused on AI, China and EV stocks.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
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rurahrah000 said:
There is resistance to the downside in TMF here, so it may temporarily go higher, but IMHO it will go lower in the long run. I don't have as strong of a conviction here as Ackman who is obviously short long term treasuries and therefore long TMV. I am not in the treasuries game for the moment and more focused on AI, China and EV stocks.
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Agreed on China and I have BABA and FXI plays. Any other EV stocks to research? I know you are high on RIVN. Any thoughts on LI vs NIO or both? Thanks!
 
R

rurahrah000

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Aug 21, 2010
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T2Kplus20 said:
Agreed on China and I have BABA and FXI plays. Any other EV stocks to research? I know you are high on RIVN. Any thoughts on LI vs NIO or both? Thanks!
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I am not into LI, but am into NIO. i was into XPEV was was called out at $22 right before the drop this week. i have not gotten back into it. I have been trimming my TSLA holdings. I get the sense that they are putting all their eggs in the FSD bucket. Not sure how that is going to play out.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,169
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rurahrah000 said:
I am not into LI, but am into NIO. i was into XPEV was was called out at $22 right before the drop this week. i have not gotten back into it. I have been trimming my TSLA holdings. I get the sense that they are putting all their eggs in the FSD bucket. Not sure how that is going to play out.
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The EV makers in my custom basket are TSLA, LI, RIVN, PSNY, and NIO. I've been in and out of NIO a bunch of times. Didn't like them for a while due to lack of a path to profitability, but with deliveries starting to ramp up, they look really promising. Never been an XPEV fan due to the same reason. I also have a few lithium companies and EV focused semis.
 
R

RutgersNo1

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Sep 28, 2021
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NIO is one of the few companies in China that truly care about renovation, customers, and making better products, instead of taking shortcuts to make quick money. You rarely see a Chinese company like this.
 
S

Scarletnut

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
5,467
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RUAldo said:
MULN! Fun to play with penny stocks.
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Something like 24% of the total shares are shorted despite production having started and several orders, albeit small ones, being filled. This one could be a real short squeeze with any positive news
 
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