The company seems like it is struggling, but I may have to dip my toe in the water because it probably a ripe short squeeze candidate.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Worth a few speculative dollars.
People finally sniffing out the AI hype.
“At the end of the day, AI is just software, it’s expensive software,” Andrew Harrison, CEO of venture capital firm Section 32, said. “It’s low-margin software unless it does something that’s 10 times better.”
“At the end of the day, AI is just software, it’s expensive software,” Andrew Harrison, CEO of venture capital firm Section 32, said. “It’s low-margin software unless it does something that’s 10 times better.”
Every start-up is an AI company now. Bubble fears are growing.
As in lower-rated but still considered investment-grade corporate bonds kind of bonds?
Haven’t tried it yet but all my investments outside of a 401k are at fidelity. What fees are there?
Sold my NKLA today, panicked and sold near todays lows. Really should have sold before it's earnings, in hindsight, that's a no brainer. Still it was 4x off it's lows, so what was once a complete blood bath, was merely just a bath.
Also sold my RIVN. Slight profit, was up double digits last week. Did earn a couple points selling calls. Earnings tomorrow. Street expecting $1.40 per share loss. I don't think it's as clear as selling NKLA pre earnings, but it is up 100% off it's lows. Fool me once.
Still holding on PSNY. "Only" 30% off it's lows. Reports on the 29th. I'm curious to see if, and how it trades based on RIVN's earnings tomorrow.
Also sold my RIVN. Slight profit, was up double digits last week. Did earn a couple points selling calls. Earnings tomorrow. Street expecting $1.40 per share loss. I don't think it's as clear as selling NKLA pre earnings, but it is up 100% off it's lows. Fool me once.
Still holding on PSNY. "Only" 30% off it's lows. Reports on the 29th. I'm curious to see if, and how it trades based on RIVN's earnings tomorrow.
Stocks I'm watching.
ENPH closed at $135, so below that $140 level that it dropped to in extended trading after earnings last week. Since it's big post covid run, and initially topping out in late 2020/early 2021 at a tick about $200, it's lows looks to be about $120. Current P/E of 35x, with strong rev growth expected through 2026, and EPS growth into 2025. Still looking very much like a falling knife.
BWA. Still has a fair amount of technical work to do, but the chart does look promising post covid, needs to break past the $47 level which is post covid high, and a level it just failed to break out from after it sank after it's earnings call. 10x P/E. with 10% eps growth expected in each of the next 2 years. And it has only missed expectations once in the last 4 years.
GNRC. This thing 5x'd post covid. And then gave it all back. Looked to be reversing that downward trend but then missed earnings and dropped about 30%. 2023 looks to be trough earnings, with a strong rebound beginning next year, but it has missed 2 of the last 4.
ENPH closed at $135, so below that $140 level that it dropped to in extended trading after earnings last week. Since it's big post covid run, and initially topping out in late 2020/early 2021 at a tick about $200, it's lows looks to be about $120. Current P/E of 35x, with strong rev growth expected through 2026, and EPS growth into 2025. Still looking very much like a falling knife.
BWA. Still has a fair amount of technical work to do, but the chart does look promising post covid, needs to break past the $47 level which is post covid high, and a level it just failed to break out from after it sank after it's earnings call. 10x P/E. with 10% eps growth expected in each of the next 2 years. And it has only missed expectations once in the last 4 years.
GNRC. This thing 5x'd post covid. And then gave it all back. Looked to be reversing that downward trend but then missed earnings and dropped about 30%. 2023 looks to be trough earnings, with a strong rebound beginning next year, but it has missed 2 of the last 4.
Hmm. Love Fidelity, but that seems too conservative for a 9 out of 10 risk level. 10 out of 10 should be 100% stocks. Also, 20% international is too high for my liking.
I'm ultra long hold for RIVN and PSNY and will continue to add to positions (both are in my EV basket). I assume NKLA was down big due to the issuing of new shares.
I'm hoping to see RIVN drift back down to $20'ish, so I can buy some LEAPS calls - Dec 2025.
ENPH below $140 is very interesting. Gotta take a look at that one. Another LEAPS call play?
In other news. My dad still has one A share from the early 80s:
Let me know what stroke you are buying and what your breakeven is. Seems like a terrible play.
For RIVN? Looking at the Dec 2025 calls at the $40 strike. I think the premium is around $7-8, but I'm hoping for it be get in the $5-6 range. We shall see. Open to hearing thoughts on this. I'm ultra new at calls and have plenty to learn.
NKLA issuing new shares was very much expected, I think the sell off is more due to selling off after a huge run.
Current price to rev's of 30x, and it's Q2 rev's were down yoy. Big growth expected moving fwd, but this run was a bit of a gift, I had to take it, even if I missed the tippy top.
Do you think NKLA's troubles are behind and they have a legit future? I don't even have them on my EV watch list.
When the Fed announces they are done, the market will rally. Mark Fisher is a brilliant commodities trader, but he said like 20 times he knows nothing about stocks.
By the way, Tom Lee put out some serious work on why inflation will continue to tumble. Even the SF and NY Feds are showing data on OER and used car prices plummeting (OER will turn deflationary and stay that way for the entire H1 of 2024). NY Fed saying cuts coming in early 2024 because inflation will continue to drop. As inflation goes down, the Fed will cut interest rates back to a neutral position. No need to stay restricted and tank the economy by mistake.
Still losing money, but the stock issuance buys them time. As of now, they are expecting to break even in 2026. Which granted is just expectations, but still better then most of the startups.
Q4 is when they are expecting to reach a new rev's plateau, triple any they've had thus far. So that's a date to circle
And while they are currently selling EV Semi's I think the real goal is to create a hyrdogen powered semi fleet and even moreso to become the supplier of that hydrogen.
But oil and food prices looking ahead?When the Fed announces they are done, the market will rally. Mark Fisher is a brilliant commodities trader, but he said like 20 times he knows nothing about stocks.
By the way, Tom Lee put out some serious work on why inflation will continue to tumble. Even the SF and NY Feds are showing data on OER and used car prices plummeting (OER will turn deflationary and stay that way for the entire H1 of 2024). NY Fed saying cuts coming in early 2024 because inflation will continue to drop. As inflation goes down, the Fed will cut interest rates back to a neutral position. No need to stay restricted and tank the economy by mistake.
Energy is only 7% of headline CPI. OER is 30% (and 40% of core CPI). If OER decreases for the next 6 months and then is pinned negative for another 6 months, inflation is going down to stay for a long, long time.
OER math f'ed us for the past 12 months, the tables are finally turning.
Options are a great way to execute your idea. Your break even is 48 without factoring opportunity cost or expected rate of return. To me, you put on this trade if you think the stock will go to 64 or higher before Dec 2025.
Yes, I believe RIVN will go much higher than $64 during this time frame. Seems like a good way to maximize the rally of a stock with tying up only a modest amount of resources. I also have my eye on DIS for a LEAPS call as well. The company is in the toilet now, tomorrow should be a kitchen sink earnings report, but DIS seems to be at a bottom. However, this bellwether company looks poised to experience a "come back" story and rally in 2024.
There might be a black swan in Chinese real estate. All the chinese stocks are looking ugly today.
part of it is the mix of revenues and how derived. Banks lending and associated activities are declining as are investment banking activities. that's a lot of coin for the big 4
it's about revenue, not stress tests
Investment banking is down almost 40% across the board for the banks. Lending activities is slowing fast
both of which account for large revenues and profit margins. Downgrading the banks at the closing of a i rate cycle is prudent
Quarter looks good for RIVN, solid guidance. Really hoping for a sell the good news dip! Time for those calls:
Interesting turn of events for $penn, $dis and barstool.
They’ve owned a decent sized stake in Draft Kings for some time. I’m surprised they haven’t been more aggressive in this area to be honest. Amazing deal for Portnoy. He sold Barstool for somewhere in the neighborhood of $500 million and they basically just gave it back to him for free.
that 5 trillion isn't in the hands of the middle and lower class though.
Indeed many people used CCs to cover inflation bumps the past years
"The average credit card APR, hit a new record of 20.53% last week, according to a Bankrate database that goes back to 1985. The previous record was 19% in July 1991. "
"A majority of Americans say they would struggle to pay for a $1,000 emergency expense, with a record share saying they would have to turn to credit cards to cover the cost, according to a new study released Wednesday...."With 1 in 4 Americans telling us they'd react to a large emergency expense by using a credit card, their timing couldn't be worse," Mark Hamrick, Bankrate's senior economic analyst, said in a statement."
We're running on fumes and market bubbles