OT: Stock and Investment Thread

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Seems like both will beat expectations, but can either go meaningfully higher right now? I guess if NVDA raises next Q guidance again, yes it could.

I would love an opportunity to buy SNOW after a dip.
This is 2nd qtr 2024 for SNOW.

About 50% eps growth expected yoy into 2025. But it's trading at 150x next years expected earnings.

PEG of 3x.

21x price to revs.

Just seems way expensive.
 

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,632
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It's really high relative to 1930's housing prices too.

But to your point.

I’m sure we all have similar stories - my parents bought their house in CA about 20 years ago for $300K. It’s supposedly worth about $1.2M now. In 20 years is the house really going to be around $4.8M? Home affordability is so bad right now yet there doesn’t seem to be any clear end in sight absent a MAJOR shift in policy or the economy - which usually means there are other negative factors in play.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,162
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This is 2nd qtr 2024 for SNOW.

About 50% eps growth expected yoy into 2025. But it's trading at 150x next years expected earnings.

PEG of 3x.

21x price to revs.

Just seems way expensive.
Agreed. I want to start a SNOW position, but it's hard for even a perma-bull to stomach that valuation.

NVDA is ripping again into earnings. So much action going on with the Aug 25 options, calls and puts. Premiums are still very high. Lots of folks are going to make money and about the same amount will lose money. LOL!
I will sit this one out. :)
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,162
19,182
113
Good Lord - NVDA just b-slapped earnings and raised again. All hail the king:

Nvidia said it expected third-quarter revenue of about $16 billion, higher than $12.61 billion forecast by Refinitiv. Nvidia’s guidance suggests that its sales will grow 170% on an annual basis in the current quarter.

 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,162
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Wonderful quarter for SNOW as well. @RU-05 guess we need to wait longer for that dip:

Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) reported quarterly earnings of $0.22 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.10 by 120 percent. This is a 2100 percent increase over earnings of $0.01 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $674.02 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $662.24 million by 1.78 percent. This is a 35.55 percent increase over sales of $497.25 million the same period last year.
 

Scarletnut

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Jul 27, 2001
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,647
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I didn't buy any!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🤣 LOL.

But I own so much NVDA via my biggest growth funds and directly in my fun account. NVDA is my 3rd biggest portfolio position after MSFT and AAPL, so I'm covered.
you'll be able to buy puts on the cheap tomorrow.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,049
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The Fed can't soften the employment market. Also, if rates go up more (10y or Fed Funds) the housing market imbalance will just get worse. Gotta start cutting for things to get better.
You think Fed can’t soften the employment market? You are making zero sense here.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,162
19,182
113
You think Fed can’t soften the employment market? You are making zero sense here.
Nope. Not when there is a numerical worker shortage. COVID created an imbalance which will take a long, long time to settle. Also, lots of articles coming out that the Fed rate increases are actually stimulating the economy (since for the first time in 15 years, folks are making a lot of money on their money). Cash on hand is at an all-time high. Household net worth is at an all-time.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Take the money and run?
Any reason for the pop?
A letter from the CEO.

"I am very disappointed by the performance of our stock," he said in the letter. "As I have previously publicly stated, I do not believe the trading price of our stock even closely resembles the company's actual value. It is evident that, regardless of meeting significant corporate milestones (vehicle production completion within projected timelines), stock traders continue to place downward pressure on the stock, causing the price to fall."
 

Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
19,049
12,219
82
Nope. Not when there is a numerical worker shortage. COVID created an imbalance which will take a long, long time to settle. Also, lots of articles coming out that the Fed rate increases are actually stimulating the economy (since for the first time in 15 years, folks are making a lot of money on their money). Cash on hand is at an all-time high. Household net worth is at an all-time.
My money was making a **** load more money before the rates went up. You are making zero sense.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,162
19,182
113
My money was making a **** load more money before the rates went up. You are making zero sense.
Our money doesn't mean everyone's money. Lots of folks don't invest and just have cash. They are raking it in as compared to before. You need to start thinking more logically and beyond just your experience.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,162
19,182
113
A letter from the CEO.

"I am very disappointed by the performance of our stock," he said in the letter. "As I have previously publicly stated, I do not believe the trading price of our stock even closely resembles the company's actual value. It is evident that, regardless of meeting significant corporate milestones (vehicle production completion within projected timelines), stock traders continue to place downward pressure on the stock, causing the price to fall."
Just read the entire letter. Interesting, but where is the action? Regardless, I will say this, a company being valued at $75m yet having $230m cash on hand doesn't make sense.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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Just read the entire letter. Interesting, but where is the action? Regardless, I will say this, a company being valued at $75m yet having $230m cash on hand doesn't make sense.
I thought that market cap seemed ridiculously cheap given orders were in and cars were being delivered. That's why I bought in(a very small position).

Now there is cash burn to consider, and they are likely years away from making money, so that $230m in cash is a moment in time, but if they can bring in rev's in the coming quarters, then on that metric, given that tiny market cap, it should look fairly cheap.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,162
19,182
113
I thought that market cap seemed ridiculously cheap given orders were in and cars were being delivered. That's why I bought in(a very small position).

Now there is cash burn to consider, and they are likely years away from making money, so that $230m in cash is a moment in time, but if they can bring in rev's in the coming quarters, then on that metric, given that tiny market cap, it should look fairly cheap.
I need to do more research. A small position may be worth the gamble. My two big questions:

1. Is the threat of getting booted from the Nasdaq legit?
2. Where does the next financing raise come from? They will have to do so again.
 

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
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I need to do more research. A small position may be worth the gamble. My two big questions:

1. Is the threat of getting booted from the Nasdaq legit?
2. Where does the next financing raise come from? They will have to do so again.
They need to get the stock price above $1. That's why they reversed split.

More recently they announced a $24 mil stock buy back in order to get that price up. And some time last week I think they executed a portion of that plan.

Now using $24 mil to buy back stock will contribute to cash burn. And I think it does speak to what the CEO is talking about in terms of pressure on the stock. One would think a buy back of that size relative to it's market cap would be a driver of stock price, but instead it has continued to slide.
 
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Scarletnut

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Jul 27, 2001
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They need to get the stock price above $1. That's why they reversed split.

More recently they announced a $24 mil stock buy back in order to get that price up. And some time last week I think that executed a portion of that plan.

Now using $24 mil to buy back stock will contribute to cash burn. And I think it does speak to what the CEO is talking about in terms of pressure on the stock. One would think a buy back of that size relative to it's market cap would be a driver of stock price, but instead it has continued to slide.
They also have a firm investigating the naked shorts. At some point, IMO, there will be a huge short squeeze especially as more cars/models are delivered be end of year
 
Dec 17, 2008
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😳 Can’t say I agree with that but I’d be ecstatic if it happened lol.

From the article:

“I think I was high on the Street for next year coming into this report but my numbers have to go way up,” wrote Chaim Siegel, an analyst at Elazar Advisors, in a note after the report. He lifted his price target to $1,600, a “3x move from here,” and said, “I still think my numbers are too conservative.”

He said that price suggests a multiple of 13 times 2024 earnings per share.

Nvidia’s prodigious cashflow contrasts with its top customers, which are spending heavily on AI hardware and building multi-million dollar AI models, but haven’t yet started to see income from the technology.

 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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😳 Can’t say I agree with that but I’d be ecstatic if it happened lol.

From the article:

“I think I was high on the Street for next year coming into this report but my numbers have to go way up,” wrote Chaim Siegel, an analyst at Elazar Advisors, in a note after the report. He lifted his price target to $1,600, a “3x move from here,” and said, “I still think my numbers are too conservative.”

He said that price suggests a multiple of 13 times 2024 earnings per share.

Nvidia’s prodigious cashflow contrasts with its top customers, which are spending heavily on AI hardware and building multi-million dollar AI models, but haven’t yet started to see income from the technology.

13x 2024 EPS? Are we talking his $1600 tarket? That would mean something like $120 of EPS. First we would need to acknowledge yesterdays earnings was their 2024 2q. And it was $2.70 per share.

They are not touching 13x earnings at their current stock price, let alone that price target, for years.

NVDA is absolutely destroying it, but I don't know what that guy is talking about there.
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,162
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😳 Can’t say I agree with that but I’d be ecstatic if it happened lol.

From the article:

“I think I was high on the Street for next year coming into this report but my numbers have to go way up,” wrote Chaim Siegel, an analyst at Elazar Advisors, in a note after the report. He lifted his price target to $1,600, a “3x move from here,” and said, “I still think my numbers are too conservative.”

He said that price suggests a multiple of 13 times 2024 earnings per share.

Nvidia’s prodigious cashflow contrasts with its top customers, which are spending heavily on AI hardware and building multi-million dollar AI models, but haven’t yet started to see income from the technology.

Seems a tab bit much. :)
But I get the wild excitement. There is an AI war going on and NVDA is the only arms dealer.
 
Dec 17, 2008
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13x 2024 EPS? Are we talking his $1600 tarket? That would mean something like $120 of EPS. First we would need to acknowledge yesterdays earnings was their 2024 2q. And it was $2.70 per share.

They are not touching 13x earnings at their current stock price, let alone that price target, for years.

NVDA is absolutely destroying it, but I don't know what that guy is talking about there.
I was looking at the metrics and I don’t know how he got the numbers either but I’d be happy for it to happen 🤣
 
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RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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SNOW pulling back a little, which makes sense imo. That multiple with 37% rev growth doesn't make sense.

I mean 37% growth is great, but that's expensive.
 

FastMJ

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Jan 6, 2007
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Sorry for this non sequitur, but is there a more clownish and idiotic investment manager than Cathie Wood? Look at her ARKK fund’s 2 year return vs QQQ. She is an efficient destroyer of her investors wealth. Why does anyone respect this clown?
 
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T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
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Sorry for this non sequitur, but is there a more clownish and idiotic investment manager than Cathie Wood? Look at her ARKK fund’s 2 year return vs QQQ. She is an efficient destroyer of her investors wealth. Why does anyone respect this clown?
I read/heard something recently that CW and ARK are very valuable for investors. Why? Because they are a reliable constant. Meaning, they don't deviate from their thematic approach, come hell or high water (and whether the market is going up or down). So, you can long or short as you see fit without getting rug pulled by a fund manager changing their holdings too much. Consistency has value.
 
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Knight Owl

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Jul 27, 2001
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Sorry for this non sequitur, but is there a more clownish and idiotic investment manager than Cathie Wood? Look at her ARKK fund’s 2 year return vs QQQ. She is an efficient destroyer of her investors wealth. Why does anyone respect this clown?
I guess she’s impressed that Zoom told employees to return to the office.😂
It has an extreme p/e multiple and no real moat to think of. Just lots of irony…
 
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RU05

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I read/here something recently that CW and ARK are very valuable for investors. Why? Because they are a reliable constant. Meaning, they don't deviate from their thematic approach, come hell or high water (and whether the market is going up or down). So, you can long or short as you see fit without getting rug pulled by a fund manager changing their holdings too much. Consistency has value.
Ya, seemed like a common sense move to transition 2 years ago to more established companies. But that's not what they do.

They are the future disruptor's play.
 
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RU05

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I guess she’s impressed that Zoom told employees to return to the office.😂
It has an extreme p/e multiple and no real moat to think of. Just lots of irony…
ZM is not pricey in terms of cash flow. They lack growth though, at least recently. ARKK must think they have levers to pull.
 

FastMJ

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Jan 6, 2007
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I read/heard something recently that CW and ARK are very valuable for investors. Why? Because they are a reliable constant. Meaning, they don't deviate from their thematic approach, come hell or high water (and whether the market is going up or down). So, you can long or short as you see fit without getting rug pulled by a fund manager changing their holdings too much. Consistency has value.
I have perceived the exact opposite. She jumps around all the time in terms her concentrations although always in the same hopium stocks.
 

Knight Owl

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ZM is not pricey in terms of cash flow. They lack growth though, at least recently. ARKK must think they have levers to pull.
Yeah. I can’t imagine what their growth prospects look like…especially post-pandemic. I mean the risk of Zoom going to zero within a relatively short time isn’t 0%.
 

RU05

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Jun 25, 2015
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Yeah. I can’t imagine what their growth prospects look like…especially post-pandemic. I mean the risk of Zoom going to zero within a relatively short time isn’t 0%.
They have rev's of $4.5B per year. Free Cash Flow of $1.5B per year. They are not going to zero.

Not much growth, but they suffer from pandemic pull fwd, monster growth yoy 2019 into 2020.
Flat since, so that does need to change, and ARK seems to think it will.