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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RU-05 said:
SNOW has built a 15 month base around this $150 level.

Think it has to keep working on that base though as it's still over 20x rev's.
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I did start a SNOW position last week ($147'ish). Very small. So, I now have SNOW, DIS, RIVN, and CLRB in my personal account (in addition to my FS Insights Custom Basket, EV Custom Basket, and QLD).

I have to say, the FS Insights list is rocking. Routinely beating the S&P 500 day to day.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RU-05 said:
I didn't see anything in yesterdays news about earnings.

The earnings estimates on E-Trade, a consensus of 6 analysts(which I think is all the wall street analysts covering the company), is for positive earnings in q1 of 2024, and .17 per share for the year. The past 8 qtr's it has been pretty much in line with estimates, give or take a penny. Nothing beyond that currently, but positive next year is pretty encouraging.

If nothing else it looks like it's poised for a continuance of this bounce. Potential resistance at $8.
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Good to know, both are on my watchlist.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
9,129
113
T2Kplus20 said:
I did start a SNOW position last week ($147'ish). Very small. So, I now have SNOW, DIS, RIVN, and CLRB in my personal account (in addition to my FS Insights Custom Basket, EV Custom Basket, and QLD).

I have to say, the FS Insights list is rocking. Routinely beating the S&P 500 day to day.
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Going back to the lows of Jun 2022, which saw the stock get into the low 1-teens, there has been a series of higher lows, really starting at early this year when it dipped a tick below $120 in Jan.

If SNOW get's below $150 again, I'll probably look to buy in.

If you think SNOW is too expensive, but wouldn't mind getting in at around $140, you can get a +1% prem on the Nov 17th $140 strikes. And this is with earnings later that month. Post earnings $140 strikes will earn you 2.5ish% prem.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RU-05 said:
Going back to the lows of Jun 2022, which saw the stock get into the low 1-teens, there has been a series of higher lows, really starting at early this year when it dipped a tick below $120 in Jan.

If SNOW get's below $150 again, I'll probably look to buy in.

If you think SNOW is too expensive, but wouldn't mind getting in at around $140, you can get a +1% prem on the Nov 17th $140 strikes. And this is with earnings later that month. Post earnings $140 strikes will earn you 2.5ish% prem.
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SNOW is definitely expensive, but sometimes a company is worth it. One of my core vendors at work is starting to use SNOW for data management and it's going very well. I just wanted to get my foot in the door. I will definitely add when I can lower my CB.
 
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Jtung230

Heisman
Jun 30, 2005
18,970
12,164
82
The most shocking number from Tesla is operating margin. 55% decrease from a year ago to 7.6%. That’s even with a juiced up number from regulatory credits. Maybe it is just a car company after all
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RU-05 said:
“We dug our own grave with Cybertruck” warned Musk, saying Tesla faces “enormous challenges” scaling up production.

Tesla missed on both revs and eps.
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A more normal looking truck would have been much better. Can't imagine the market being that big for it. RIVN dipped today, will buy more under $18.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
9,129
113
T2Kplus20 said:
A more normal looking truck would have been much better. Can't imagine the market being that big for it. RIVN dipped today, will buy more under $18.
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Ya a very niche audience for the cybertruck imo.

Overall EV sales said to be softening though RIVN does have Amazon as a built in customer. Still im not liking the direction RIVN stock has been trading.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RU-05 said:
Ya a very niche audience for the cybertruck imo.

Overall EV sales said to be softening though RIVN does have Amazon as a built in customer. Still im not liking the direction RIVN stock has been trading.
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It's been choppy of late, impacted by interest rates and their notes. Would love to buy around $15, but who knows if it will get back to that level.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
9,129
113
T up 7% on a beat.

I could see a continued bounce from here, and it does pay a 7% div, but if this get's back to $20, I think that would be the time to trade out.
 
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rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,224
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88
jtung230 said:
The most shocking number from Tesla is operating margin. 55% decrease from a year ago to 7.6%. That’s even with a juiced up number from regulatory credits. Maybe it is just a car company after all
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TSLA has put all of its eggs in the FSD basket. If FSD doesn't work out then TSLA will likely crash as a stock. The company won't go out of business but the stock will definitely come down. As I previously mentioned, I have been trimming my TSLA exposure every time the stock goes above $260 or so.
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
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rurahrah000 said:
TSLA has put all of its eggs in the FSD basket. If FSD doesn't work out then TSLA will likely crash as a stock. The company won't go out of business but the stock will definitely come down. As I previously mentioned, I have been trimming my TSLA exposure every time the stock goes above $260 or so.
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I think the stockholders are certainly counting on it.

Gene Munster was on Fast Money last night talking about how he see's margins in the years ahead at 40%. They are currently at 16% and trending downward.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
rurahrah000 said:
TSLA has put all of its eggs in the FSD basket. If FSD doesn't work out then TSLA will likely crash as a stock. The company won't go out of business but the stock will definitely come down. As I previously mentioned, I have been trimming my TSLA exposure every time the stock goes above $260 or so.
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Are you more bullish on RIVN than TSLA? Or do you have another EV play.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RU-05 said:
I think the stockholders are certainly counting on it.

Gene Munster was on Fast Money last night talking about how he see's margins in the years ahead at 40%. They are currently at 16% and trending downward.
Click to expand...
Margins will significantly grow if services and FSD match projections. Definitely not with car production.
 
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rurahrah000

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2010
3,224
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88
T2Kplus20 said:
Are you more bullish on RIVN than TSLA? Or do you have another EV play.
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More bullish on RIVN because they are already quite beaten down and would go higher on just a bit of good news. If TSLA cannot mass produce or doesn't do well with cybertruck, then RIVN would benefit tremendously. RIVN has also not gone down the road of price cuts while maintaining enthusiasm for its product.

T2Kplus20 said:
Margins will significantly grow if services and FSD match projections. Definitely not with car production.
Click to expand...
Once TSLA is done with a majority of its innovation phase, they would benefit from having a CEO like Tim Cook who can extract tremendous value.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
rurahrah000 said:
More bullish on RIVN because they are already quite beaten down and would go higher on just a bit of good news. If TSLA cannot mass produce or doesn't do well with cybertruck, then RIVN would benefit tremendously. RIVN has also not gone down the road of price cuts while maintaining enthusiasm for its product.


Once TSLA is done with a majority of its innovation phase, they would benefit from having a CEO like Tim Cook who can extract tremendous value.
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Good feedback, thanks. Bought more RIVN today. Still a modest position, but growing.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
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T2Kplus20 said:
Guilt by association may mean.....buy the dip! :)
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Even SEDG, with the lowered estimates still expects to end the year at 15x earnings. Growth was expected to be substantial next year, but if that comes in at even modest growth 15x could be cheap.

But Im guessing there will be a better price to get in at in the coming months.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RU-05 said:
Even SEDG, with the lowered estimates still expects to end the year at 15x earnings. Growth was expected to be substantial next year, but if that comes in at even modest growth 15x could be cheap.

But Im guessing there will be a better price to get in at in the coming months.
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Agreed. I have a small ENPH position in my Roth IRA, but looking to start one in my personal account. ENPH earnings are next week, so it's probably a good idea to be cautious. I love ENPH, but business will be tough until interest rates start to crack.

Regardless, hard to pass up ENPH sub-$100.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RutgersNo1 said:
Another brutal day. Hope this Q4 won't be like 2018...
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People like to freakout more than being happy. But the market goes up 80% of the time, so folks need to buy the fear. People that did that in 2022, made tons of money through the big 2023 rally.
 
A

ashokan

Heisman
May 3, 2011
25,325
19,687
0
Derivatives trader on The Duran (lawyers/economists) podcast says the people working in derivatives see move from DEFCON 2 to DEFCON 1 is at hand. Derivatives are massive but ignored (Chase with 70 trillion exposure - yes with a "t"). 5.30 in

 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
Any options action around earnings this week? SNAP always seems to be a safe bet to s the bed, but how low are expectations for them now? LOL!

Monday, Oct. 23

After the bell earnings: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Logitech (LOGI)

Tuesday, Oct. 24

Before the bell earnings: Danaher (DHR), Coca-Cola (KO), Verizon (VZ), General Electric (GE), RTX Corporation (RTX), 3M (MMM), Halliburton (HAL), PulteGroup (PHM), General Motors (GM), Dow Chemical (DOW), Nucor (NUE), Xerox (XRX)

After the bell: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Snap (SNAP), Visa (V), Texas Instruments (TXN), F5 Networks (FFIV), WM (WM)

Wednesday, Oct. 25

Before the bell: Boeing (BA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Hilton (HLT), General Dynamics (GD), Fortive (FTV), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Imax (IMAX), Otis Worldwide (OTIS)

After the bell: Meta Platforms (META), Veralto (VLTO), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), KLA (KLAC), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Baker Hughes (BKR), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Mattel (MAT), Whirlpool (WHR)
Thursday, Oct. 26

Before the bell: Honeywell (HON), Linde (LIN), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Hershey Company (HSY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Altria Group (MO), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), Mastercard (MA), Merck & Co. (MRK), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Newmont Mining (NEM), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Comcast (CMCSA), Mobileye (MBLY), Seagate Technology (STX), Boston Scientific (BSX), Hertz (HTZ), Carrier (CARR), Hasbro (HAS), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Overstock.com (OSTK), PG&E (PCG), Brunswick (BC), Kenvue (KVUE), Oshkosh (OSK), International Paper (IP)

After the bell: Amazon (AMZN), Ford (F), Intel (INTC), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Skechers (SKX), United States Steel (X), Capital One (COF), L3Harris (LHX), Deckers Brands (DECK), Boston Beer Company (SAM), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

Friday, Oct. 27

Before the bell: Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Phillips 66 (PSX), AutoNation (AN), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Newell Brands (NWL), Sanofi (SNY), LyondellBasell (LYB)
 
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Knight Owl

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Jul 27, 2001
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“If you hodl, a bad trade can transform into an investment, and a bad investment can transform into a hedge.” Confucius
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,600
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T2Kplus20 said:
Any options action around earnings this week? SNAP always seems to be a safe bet to s the bed, but low are expectations for them now? LOL!

Monday, Oct. 23

After the bell earnings: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Logitech (LOGI)

Tuesday, Oct. 24

Before the bell earnings: Danaher (DHR), Coca-Cola (KO), Verizon (VZ), General Electric (GE), RTX Corporation (RTX), 3M (MMM), Halliburton (HAL), PulteGroup (PHM), General Motors (GM), Dow Chemical (DOW), Nucor (NUE), Xerox (XRX)

After the bell: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Snap (SNAP), Visa (V), Texas Instruments (TXN), F5 Networks (FFIV), WM (WM)

Wednesday, Oct. 25

Before the bell: Boeing (BA), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Hilton (HLT), General Dynamics (GD), Fortive (FTV), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Imax (IMAX), Otis Worldwide (OTIS)

After the bell: Meta Platforms (META), Veralto (VLTO), IBM (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), KLA (KLAC), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Baker Hughes (BKR), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Mattel (MAT), Whirlpool (WHR)
Thursday, Oct. 26

Before the bell: Honeywell (HON), Linde (LIN), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Hershey Company (HSY), United Parcel Service (UPS), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Altria Group (MO), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), Mastercard (MA), Merck & Co. (MRK), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Newmont Mining (NEM), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Comcast (CMCSA), Mobileye (MBLY), Seagate Technology (STX), Boston Scientific (BSX), Hertz (HTZ), Carrier (CARR), Hasbro (HAS), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Overstock.com (OSTK), PG&E (PCG), Brunswick (BC), Kenvue (KVUE), Oshkosh (OSK), International Paper (IP)

After the bell: Amazon (AMZN), Ford (F), Intel (INTC), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Skechers (SKX), United States Steel (X), Capital One (COF), L3Harris (LHX), Deckers Brands (DECK), Boston Beer Company (SAM), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

Friday, Oct. 27

Before the bell: Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), Charter Communications (CHTR), Phillips 66 (PSX), AutoNation (AN), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Newell Brands (NWL), Sanofi (SNY), LyondellBasell (LYB)
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Was just checking the options premiums for Snap.

You are right it has **** the bed like 6 straight times. But it typically bounces back to its current level.

I could see this going big in either direction.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
30,881
18,870
113
RU-05 said:
Was just checking the options premiums for Snap.

You are right it has **** the bed like 6 straight times. But it typically bounces back to its current level.

I could see this going big in either direction.
Click to expand...
7th time the charm? 😁
Put or call, that's the question.

TDOC may be another play. It popped big last earnings, but analysts are very bearish on the company now. Revised estimates down a few times.
 
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