Thanks! Do you have a rule of thumb for duration and strike price? I assume the calls should be moderate to longer term. How about $5 Jan 2025 calls at $0.95?
Fed may have to start buying up bonds again. LOL!
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OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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Fed may have to start buying up bonds again. LOL!
If they could just figure out how to eat into Google’s “search” market share…
MSFT isn’t really the best at any one thing unless you count the ol’ MS Office suite. AI is their big chance to grab a dominant position and they DO know the businesses to be in at least (Zuckerberg sometimes gets this very wrong unless legless Avatars are your thing lol)
If the Fed starts cutting interest rates (looks like 2024 sometime) and the dollar index drops, MSFT will become a monster blowing through the all time high despite already selling above a 30 PE.
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Agreed on AI. If MSFT can monetize it and/or add it to their search, sky is the limit!
Google getting crushed after hours based on their disappointing cloud results. MSFT surprised to the good in cloud utilizing AI. Google seems to be set up as the one mega tech at risk of losing market share in key businesses (their PE is now a cheap 29).
Beautiful buying opportunity. Even though MSFT is ahead, GOOGL will be one of the long-term winners of AI and information tech. There is plenty of winning to go around.
I’m looking for one play to be overweight in a non-retirement account (401K has plenty of the Mag7 already) and I’m feeling more and more comfortable with MSFT and their hyper-aggressiveness. Some of Mag7 like Amazon, Tesla, NVDIA and even META have valuations I just can’t wrap my head around. And Apple is a question to me just because there are only so many people on this planet they can sell an iPhone to and most of those people already have one.
MSFT is the largest holding across our entire portfolio (all accounts) for a reason. However, be careful with worrying about valuations for the Mag 7. Or at least, solely worry about it:
1. Sentiment
2. Technicals
3. Valuations
In that order, especially for the Mag 7. Even Jeremy Grantham admitted that the Mag 7 "broke" his model due to their size, resources, and ability to horizontally grow (which includes, buying the competition).
Yeah. I listened to Josh B this evening and he actually mentioned that any AI startups will be bought by the big tech players immediately lol. Good thing for the Megas is there a few of them at least to point fingers at one another and keep the regulators at bay. Now I gotta see what Cathie Wood is up to.
Edit: Cathie’s ARKK is betting big on Zoom
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The E-Trade consensus of 26 analysts expect very modest growth looking fwd.Yeah. I listened to Josh B this evening and he actually mentioned that any AI startups will be bought by the big tech players immediately lol. Good thing for the Megas is there a few of them at least to point fingers at one another and keep the regulators at bay. Now I gotta see what Cathie Wood is up to.
Edit: Cathie’s ARKK is betting big on Zoom
Woods clearly has a different estimates model.
I just don't get the ZOOM growth story. I still use ZOOM from time to time (mostly now MS Teams). It's a great webex platform, but not much else.
Seriously, they will be fine. This is a gross overreaction to a solid quarter. The market is still a scared little child.
Yeah, Woods sees a 100+ PE and she just must buy or hold it lol.
KABOOM for META. The big boys are crushing earnings so far:
Great but it didn’t even recover the loss from earlier today. Long term looks good.
Can't worry about the random silliness of the market, unless you are a day trader.
I gotta share this b/c its just too absurd:
My daughter was born in July 2021. I started a 529 for her that same month, and have contributed $700 per month to that through the present day.
It's invested in a blackrock index ETF
Now, mind you, i've been accruing on this monthly schedule. Basically "by the book" index investing
Through today -- 2+ years of dollar cost averaging and steady input -- 529 is down 5%. I've contributed $20,800 and the fund is worth $19,900
Thats just nominal decline. With inflation I'm down prob closer to 7-8% in real buying.
Absolutely remarkable! What a time to be alive. This market is absolutely brutal
My daughter was born in July 2021. I started a 529 for her that same month, and have contributed $700 per month to that through the present day.
It's invested in a blackrock index ETF
Now, mind you, i've been accruing on this monthly schedule. Basically "by the book" index investing
Through today -- 2+ years of dollar cost averaging and steady input -- 529 is down 5%. I've contributed $20,800 and the fund is worth $19,900
Thats just nominal decline. With inflation I'm down prob closer to 7-8% in real buying.
Absolutely remarkable! What a time to be alive. This market is absolutely brutal
I’m starting to leg into this market. 100 SPY filled at 415 this morning.
100 345 bid in for QQQ GTC.
100 345 bid in for QQQ GTC.
I’m at about a 3% gain in Franklin Templeton’s 529 age adjusted plan over 5 years or so. Tough sledding
ridiculous. im about fed up. Those 5.75% CDs are looking mighty fine
It is good to diversify a bit, maybe split the future allocations.
I did buy some recently, and will probably buy more. 1 yr's.
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Some turd news.
Needs to get to, and stay above $1 for 20 consecutive trading days by Jan. Stock up 20% today but still only at .30 cents.
I'd like to see some stats on how often these penny stocks get booted out, and how often they are able to meet the necessary criteria.
Needs to get to, and stay above $1 for 20 consecutive trading days by Jan. Stock up 20% today but still only at .30 cents.
I'd like to see some stats on how often these penny stocks get booted out, and how often they are able to meet the necessary criteria.
Treasury bills, notes, bonds.... May be looking at a "generational opportunity.". Ten-year notes could approach 6% by 2Q24, maybe higher. And with the possibility of persistent inflation, TIPS also increasingly attractive.
How many of you hold or are building positions in Treasuries?
How many of you hold or are building positions in Treasuries?
I’m happy with my interest income from the Treasuries and CD, moved about $200k more the last few days. Most are short term less than a year but if it gets close to 6% definitely 5-10 years. I think about 75% in fixed income.
Before 2008, before interest rates kept falling until last year, the S&P return for 20 years prior was 8% so 6% would be great.
Sure. If you already "won the game," and are near or in retirement, these rates are an incredible "lock." As for younger investors, though, curious if and when they opt to build out their portfolios with Treasuries, per the current climate.
Meta taking a hit today even though reporting beat expectations.Analysts are saying forward guidance in some areas show uncertainty and that excuse was used for the selloff.Reality is that September and October rarely are good months for the stock market.
Unless you are just starting out, you should have a small portion in fixed income. As you get older, the allocation of debt and equities should balance.
I would recommend other fixed income than treasury unless you need liquidity and size.
META ran up more than any of the other big Techs before earnings. I should have kept to my formula of selling my stocks before the earnings comes out. Almost 70-80% of the time the stocks decline after earnings even when they meet expectations. I guess I’m lucky that I didn’t have a huge position.