Oil under $70. Looking at those CVX call options again!
Last edited:
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
- Start date
Carter thought WTI could get down to $60. So another 13ish %.Oil under $70. Looking at those CVX call options again!
I guess I will wait then. LOL!
CRSP and BLUE continue to pump. Hope everyone is getting a piece of the action!
HD currently at $326, the 4th time it has challenged the $330 ish level since it fell from it's highs of around $400 back in early 2022.
It's 20x PE is below it's 10 year average. Fairly modest growth in the next couple years, but it does always beat.
It's 20x PE is below it's 10 year average. Fairly modest growth in the next couple years, but it does always beat.
Yo! I started posting about this months ago. You need to believe all semi-anonymous posters on this thread. Well, at least think about my biotech/pharma thoughts. 22 years in the industry helps.Nope.
From FS Insights/Mark Newton (on oil, agreement with CBW):
Why oil dumping: 1) US gas demand has barely bounced off Nov lows, unusual for this time of year 2) China refinery runs are lower 3) US Oil production increase, offsetting OPEC production 4) Angola said it will not stick to recent agreement, which might make it likely others also do not abide- Russia has been found guilty of cheating along with UAE 5) Facts Global energy said next round of refinery maintenance in Spring will be larger than usual- In my view, Energy looks very attractive to buy dips NEXT WEEK, (but not just right now) until these counts complete and this gets closer to Spring lows ($60-62).
Looks like China hasn't bottomed yet. Insane.Call me crazy, but yesterday during extended I started a very small position in YINN (3x of FXI). These China ETFs are back down to 10-year lows (which they also hit in 2022 and then ripped hard). Gotta be close to a bottom, right?
YINN/FXI were flat today, but still no clear signs of a bottom. I assume the government will sooner or later intervene and stimulate.
They were flat during the US trading session.
$HSI future just dropped another 1.5% at their open.
YINN/FXI doesn't always move with the Chinese/Hong Kong markets. I think most of these big stocks trade here and there, so definitely different dynamics.
You guys are amateur investors if you were really big money spenders you definitely would not have the time to be spending so many hours of your work day here acting like know it alls of the stock market. If you’re posting all day you ain’t balling.
Tom Lee/FS Insights dropped their 2024 outlook today. YE S&P 500 price target of 5,200. Best sector plays = small caps/IWM, financials, industrials, and tech. Great stuff! They held a webinar this afternoon.
Very bullish on small caps.
Been looking at STEM. Not profitable, and not expected to be any time soon, but pretty cheap on price to rev's and very nice growth.Gotta need to increase my small cap allocation!
Interesting, their market cap and annual revenue are about the same. I assume they got hit hard due to interest rates (like ENPH et al) and not getting to profitability. There seems to be some cash burn rate concerns, but not too serious. Putting STEM on my watchlist.
CSPR sickle cell gene therapy approved! CSPR down on sell the news dynamic, but BLUE up big:
UPDATE:
And BLUE's GTx was also approved! So, about 10 days prior to their PDUFA. Need to let the dust settle to see the next move. CRSP has the power of Vertex selling their product and BLUE still has limited commercial operations. In the long run, CRSP is probably the better play.
UPDATE:
And BLUE's GTx was also approved! So, about 10 days prior to their PDUFA. Need to let the dust settle to see the next move. CRSP has the power of Vertex selling their product and BLUE still has limited commercial operations. In the long run, CRSP is probably the better play.
Last edited:
40+% drop is more than one would expect for this to be "sell the rumor". Something more maybe going on.
Yes it definitely is! My sell order at $3.15 got triggered and now it is well below $3. So, the big issue is that BLUE is not getting a new PRV (priority review voucher). The FDA decided this is not a new product, but rather a new indication for product already approved. This is a huge issue for BLUE. You can sell a PRV to another company for about $100m. PRV's shorten the FDA review process and allows a product to get to the market about 6 months early.
BLUE needs this money for their commercial operations. This is not a temporary issue and may likely cause a financial raise to support the launch.
Last edited:
By the way, is there any benefit for rolling calls beyond convenience and maybe saving on commission? I was looking to adjust my CRSP calls and Fidelity didn't have a quick/easy explanation of the process.
I will only roll calls in situations where I think the price of the stock will go in my favor. For instance, I had sold $140 PDD calls 2 weeks ago and the stock would have been called away last Friday had I not rolled the calls into this week. This week PDD fell below $140 and so I can keep my stocks. I still collected ~ $6 in premium so I am happy. I don't think you really save anything on commissions.
Seems like BLUE will either need to raise money by borrowing or selling more stock. Could they still make a deal with a large company the way CRSP did with VRTX?
Yes and yes. BLUE is still living off of the PRV money (about $200m) from their first 2 gene therapy approvals in 2022. Regardless, commercialization has been slow, but picking up a bit. They will need more money if they continue to do it alone.
Over the past year or so, there has been wide speculation that BLUE will need to partner with a larger company to help sell these products. CRSP did the right thing with VRTX and will be rewarded. Developing and launching your first product or two on your own is f'ing complicated and risky.
Look at the companies with existing cell therapies in the market (which are very similar to BLUE's LVV gene therapies). Companies like my old stomping ground of NVS makes a lot of sense. BMS is another good fit and even a smaller company that is in the hematology/oncology space like BioMarin.
We need to rip into year-end and take out all-time highs!
If what you are saying is true and given that BLUE has a potential blockbuster therapy on hand, we should hear soon that BLUE is looking to partner with another big pharma company. If we don't hear something to that effect by next week then I would have serious questions about their leadership.
Dude i literally bought in yesterday.
Luckily i was smart enough to go with a small options position. But I did get smoked.
They have long pushed going it alone, but the lack of this expected PRV may quickly change their mind.
If it makes you feel better, I went from 95% up in the morning to an old sell order saving my bacon with a 10-12% profit. LOL!
As for CRSP, I was up 150%, then down -50%, and ended the day close to even. However, I'm sticking with my CRSP call play for now. Regarding BLUE, I need to do some research this weekend. The first reaction is sometime an overreaction (but definitely not wrong). We shall see!
Lesson Learned = Lock in profits prior to event if it rallies hard!
#biotechisfun
Last edited:
That really depends on if the Chinese government starts to stimulate their economy. They have mostly resisted so far.
Only inflation matters. If it keeps coming down (highly likely due to the math) then the Fed has to cut to maintain real rates. Powell has said numerous times we are at the right balance between doing too much and doing too little. That means real rates are where they should be.