Why would the FDA give another PRV for the same drug? I am not criticising you, but just asking a question.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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CRSP is the way to go here. BLUE will need to either sell itself or partner with another big company. Parterning with another company will put it too far behind CRSP by a lot. BLUE management is trash and ill prepared for all eventualities.
Would be interesting to see how many they would sell if it was not limited to 2 bars.
Now I can see why the Lords of the Shire are buying farmland. This opens-up with some background and then snowballs into evidence based dread. I've been aware of "shadows on the wall" economically but explanations never quite worked. This does that imo.
Well, this is not a "drug" it is a gene therapy. The "active" ingredient is the same, so if this was a small molecule (oral) or traditional biologic (e.g., Humira) it would be a definitive no on the PRV. However, a gene therapy is much more complex. It consists of 3 things:
1. Active
2. Viral vector
3. Genetic transduction (via the manufacturing process)
1+2+3 = a specific gene therapy
While BLUE has used the active before (I believe in Zynteglo), the transduction process is radically different. So, the question at hand is somewhat philosophical. What is a gene therapy?
I work in the gene therapy field and if any of the 1 or 2 or 3 above is different, the final gene therapy is different. That is pretty much a medical fact. Will the FDA agree from a regulatory POV? No idea yet, but normally the agency differs to the science, so we shall see. Peter Marks has been an outstanding advocate for the GTx industry. He is openminded and fair.
I do find these conspiracy theories interesting especially when our entire economy is essentially built on debt and wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few. With that said, one of the main reasons I sleep well at night with my net worth linked to the stock market is that politicians, powerful corporate execs, etc. are in the same boat as far as their investments. Whether it’s COVID, Great Recession, or some other market moving disaster people in power always seem to find a way - that’s because they are looking out for their own self-interests which in turn helps us as well.
Among right-wingers, central banks are the most mysterious entities on earth.We are all rowing in the same direction! Good point.
🪬If you believe EV demand has stagnated, then you're right.
I disagree. Data shows that EV demand continues to grow globally, despite the narrative legacy auto is trying to sell you. Tesla and the Chinese brands will fill that growing demand.
I also highlighted other areas of tremendous growth potential: energy, autonomy, next gen. vehicle, & Optimus.
Demand is not as high as the very lofty expectations behind which nearly every legacy car company set their production goals. So they’ve had to scale back on those plans but we will see continued growth in actual production and sales.
Will that eat into Tesla’s growth? Most assuredly. To what extent remains to be seen.
The other stuff? Aside from energy they are not actually revenue producers let alone earnings so its merely a lottery ticket.
I flirted with an EV purchase recently to the point my wife had a deposit down. But I bailed in favor of a hybrid. I did a bunch of research and talked to a lot of people = my takeaway is the charging network and infrastructure is a long way off.
Massive raise for BLUE today (as expected after being denied the PRV):
Bluebird in fundraising mode: A $150M public offering and a deal to get cash early from gene therapy sales | Endpoints News | December 19, 2023
Facing a financial void it had hoped to be filled by a priority review voucher, bluebird bio is tapping two different sources to bring in up to $250 million total.
The first is a straightforward, $150 million proposed public offering. The second is more unconventional: Bluebird disclosed Monday that it’s struck a deal with Alterna Capital Solutions, which bills itself as a “specialty finance company,” that will give it access to up to $100 million. In exchange, bluebird will sell Alterna some of its “trade accounts receivable” — meaning the money it’s due to receive from treatment centers that buy its gene therapies: Skysona, Zynteglo and the most recently approved Lyfgenia.
“The Agreement will enable the Company to collect cash earlier as part of this process,” bluebird wrote, compared to the current arrangement in which it invoices for the products once delivered. It will, however, only receive 90% of the full owed amount until Alterna gets the money from the payer; it will also be on the hook for fees.
The deal with Alterna will fund general working capital needs, while the proposed offering is designed to support commercialization and manufacturing for the trio of gene therapies.
Shares of bluebird $BLUE fell almost 15% to $2.6 in pre-market trading.
Leerink analysts wrote in a note that while the dilutive capital raise is “less appealing” than the priority review voucher sale bluebird originally expected, “we see this as the necessary action to alleviate near-term balance sheet pressure.” At its third-quarter earnings, bluebird had guided a cash runway into the second quarter of 2024.
Bluebird in fundraising mode: A $150M public offering and a deal to get cash early from gene therapy sales | Endpoints News | December 19, 2023
Facing a financial void it had hoped to be filled by a priority review voucher, bluebird bio is tapping two different sources to bring in up to $250 million total.
The first is a straightforward, $150 million proposed public offering. The second is more unconventional: Bluebird disclosed Monday that it’s struck a deal with Alterna Capital Solutions, which bills itself as a “specialty finance company,” that will give it access to up to $100 million. In exchange, bluebird will sell Alterna some of its “trade accounts receivable” — meaning the money it’s due to receive from treatment centers that buy its gene therapies: Skysona, Zynteglo and the most recently approved Lyfgenia.
“The Agreement will enable the Company to collect cash earlier as part of this process,” bluebird wrote, compared to the current arrangement in which it invoices for the products once delivered. It will, however, only receive 90% of the full owed amount until Alterna gets the money from the payer; it will also be on the hook for fees.
The deal with Alterna will fund general working capital needs, while the proposed offering is designed to support commercialization and manufacturing for the trio of gene therapies.
Shares of bluebird $BLUE fell almost 15% to $2.6 in pre-market trading.
Leerink analysts wrote in a note that while the dilutive capital raise is “less appealing” than the priority review voucher sale bluebird originally expected, “we see this as the necessary action to alleviate near-term balance sheet pressure.” At its third-quarter earnings, bluebird had guided a cash runway into the second quarter of 2024.
Outstanding interview with one of the best fund managers in the business (along with Steve Wymer from FDGRX). Reviews 2023 and looks ahead to 2024 and beyond. Calls out some top stocks, including RVYT and BDX:
Just did a quick look on BDX.
After a 3x move in the 10 years prior, the stock price has been building a base for almost 5 years, and currently at the low end of the range. Along those same lines it's at the low end of it's P/E ratio at 20x. It pretty regularly get's as high as 25x. So I could def see a trade there. Maybe a 10-20% upside move. But it needs to break out for anything more then that. Could it break out? I think it almost assuredly will eventually. But when? I could see that being not in the near term.
Some pretty modest rev growth looking fwd. 5-6% yoy in the next couple. EPS a little better. Not much growth from either over the past 3-4 years
If it had a fat dividend I could see banking some money there. but 1.6%?
Morgan Stanley does like it. Overweight rating and a $310 price target. So they see a breakout.
If nothing else it seems super safe in the near term.
I've been reading up on RVTY. Morningstar is crazy bullish on it as well, FMV of $165. BDX is a solid company that will do very well when the sector has a tailwind (which I think will happen in 2024 and 2025). The bar for PRWCX and Giroux is 2x in 4-5 years. He is not looking for specs that may 10x. As such, I'm thinking about leap calls for RVTY to maximize a rally.
Been reading about STEM. It seems like partially an ENPH competitor, but a bit different. Thoughts? Energy storage seems to be a real good place to park some cash.
Brought it when it got close to the 52 week low $232. Worked there for several years. If you want a buy and hold stock, this is it. Almost a monopoly with their needles. Dividend aristocrat increased dividend every year for over 52 years.
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STEM is an unprofitable former spac. Combine that with the higher interest rates and it got it's *** kicked the last couple years.
But 1.3 price to sales, with 50% rev growth last year, and 40% growth expected yoy into next year. Rate's coming down and it seems to have found a floor.
Not expected to be profitable, though inching closer. FCF positive expected in 2025.
I watched ENPH drop from $120 to mid $70's, and then roundtrip up to $133 today. ENPH is profitable, and not very expensive on that metric given it's growth, but is 6x price to revs, with those rev's looking to be troughing in 2024.
So STEM looks cheaper in some respects, with better growth, and hasn't had quite the run ENPH has(though it is up 50% off it's bottom)
Do you see a catalyst for a breakout?
I'll probably just buy some, I have some money sitting in my account, and this looks like a 10% move is a lock.
Edit: done.
I had an alert set for BDX but at a somewhat lower level so it didn't trigger. It's been range bound so it just stayed above the lower end of the range.
Looks like it's nearing the 50DMA and will probably run into some resistance there and has been rejected a few times in the last few months. I'd be surprised if it breaks it soon.
It'll break out past that 50 day. It doesn't hang in these trough's very long.
The real resistance is at $280ish.
Looks like 2024 EPS forecast was below consensus on it's last earnings report.
Missed ever so slightly on EPS as well, though it did beat on rev's.
I looked it up and saw yea guidance was the reason because of slowing revenue from COVID tests.
I agree with you above. I think it should break the 50DMA eventually but it's failed 3 times in the past few months and this is possibly attempt #4 and coming on the heels of a gap down. Eventually yes, near future not as sure but never know.
U should have talked to Tesla owners.
How you liking that Cybertruck??? You know, the vehicle that will never be produced?
He may have been wrong on it being produced. But I'm going to very much doubt that he likes it. It's brutally ugly.
You're an investor, right? Why do you care about aesthetics?
There are 2 million+ pre-orders.
It's a major flex of Tesla's engineering and manufacturing prowess.
CT will generate profit.
Aren't those points more relevant to investors than "it's ugly"?
We shall see how many of those pre orders hold up. I think the ugliness will curb that demand.
You deny legacy's will generate a profit in EV, so I'll deny CT will generate a profit.
No but it doesn’t normal stay down near the 52 week low. It similar to my UNH buy. wait for earning season and it should approach the high.
How many did they produce so far - 10? And how many quarters did it slip? In all seriousness, I’m surprised it’s on the road. However, other than the initial hype it’s gone largely quiet given the significance of the big launch - no?
Been in MP for a while in two accounts, including under $16 in my fun account (about $22 in our Roth IRAs). Great growth opportunities for the future and will likely received some gov'ment tailwinds to help increase rare metals mining in the US.
Just closed my CRSP calls (about 2x return). Will use the proceeds to buy the stock and hold long-term.
Also started buying RVTY, small position, will add over time.
Also started buying RVTY, small position, will add over time.
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Any reason for MULN to turn the corner? Definitely seems like some short manipulation going on.