Eventually the party will end but man it's a monster for now.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
- Thread starter RU05
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NVDA is less expensive now at $750 than it was a year ago at $200. Remarkable company. Well deserved price and P/E.
Looks like it might have some support in this 250-260ish area. A couple of moving averages are there as well. So far they've held. If they were to break then I wouldn't rule out a trip down to the lower 200s.
Not a stock for me but I mentioned earlier that it looked like it's still making lower highs and lower lows. Haven't seen a change in trend yet. It also broke the 200MMA which had been good support for it for most of the last couple decades. The 1 time it did break, it stayed below for 2 years before it retook it. Right now it's been below for about 5-6 months with 1 failed retest. I think this 20-25 area has some support though.
Figured it out. Invest in BYD, communist EV. Tesla does produce majority of their product in China too.
Meanwhile - aside from Nvidia's overpriced chips (M$ buying AMD at .25 the cost of CoNvidia) Google AI is skimming out the blancos from AI image search. AI is intended as a gov whip, ball and chain
I just bought some RIVN. 100% a gamble. I don't know what their future holds and they're losing a crap ton of money. I like the product, the SUVs look nice, and they should have a new lower cost option coming out in 2026.
Bought some... will hang onto it as a lotto ticket, either lose it all, or maybe it becomes the next TSLA. (highly unlikely)
Would you add if it goes lower?
I'm holding, I could see a little bounce from here and settle in higher.
But I could also see this continue to trend downward until their guidance turns upward.
That's interesting. I assume it will dip below $10, but who knows. Perhaps a leap call play to limit risk (Jan 2026?). Let it ride.
Either those or the $15 strike calls. I need to see the volume and open interest on Fidelity. I'll check out everything prior to the end of the day.
Yea, I bought a very small amount, 200 shares at $11.40. If it dips I'd maybe add another 100 shares or so then cut it off.
Reddit coming with an IPO:
Another garbage earnings in my portfolio. Also in the EV space.
INDI.
Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.01 per share, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of ($0.01); revenues rose 112.4% year/year to $70.1 mln vs the $72.62 mln FactSet Consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs down by 20% sequentially, equating to revenue of approximately $56.0 mln vs. $76.16 mln FactSet Consensus."Looking forward, based on our new product pipeline, we anticipate Q1 to be a trough quarter with top line recovery in Q2 and a resumption of outsized sequential growth in Q3 and Q4, yielding a profitability baseline in the second half of this year, ahead of our significant Radar and Vision ramps in 2025."
I'm hanging in.
INDI.
Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.01 per share, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of ($0.01); revenues rose 112.4% year/year to $70.1 mln vs the $72.62 mln FactSet Consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs down by 20% sequentially, equating to revenue of approximately $56.0 mln vs. $76.16 mln FactSet Consensus."Looking forward, based on our new product pipeline, we anticipate Q1 to be a trough quarter with top line recovery in Q2 and a resumption of outsized sequential growth in Q3 and Q4, yielding a profitability baseline in the second half of this year, ahead of our significant Radar and Vision ramps in 2025."
I'm hanging in.
For what he's done with GE, Culp is Jamie Dimon level imo. It's remarkable from what he took over to what it's become now and the slog that it took.
It's been about 16 years since it broke above it's 200MMA and it's above it again. It also did about 8 years ago but looking back at it, seemed like a false breakout. I don't get the impression this time will be a false breakout with Culp at the helm. It is quite overbought though currently. Other than a slight pullback after earnings, which didn't last, it's just been on a run. A breather would actually be healthy.
It's been about 16 years since it broke above it's 200MMA and it's above it again. It also did about 8 years ago but looking back at it, seemed like a false breakout. I don't get the impression this time will be a false breakout with Culp at the helm. It is quite overbought though currently. Other than a slight pullback after earnings, which didn't last, it's just been on a run. A breather would actually be healthy.
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Yikes, down 15% in extended.
Maybe you should get out of some of these and try a few of those FS Insights stocks? Their list was up 3.5% today and pummeling the S&P so far in 2024.
Nvidia vs AMD - hare vs tortise.
Nvidia always gets out front because it knows how to spin the hype machine for buyers who fall for tech sizzle.
Nvidia's stock went up when it announced "ray tracing" (RTX). Its was supposed to use AI to render visual elements (shadows, reflections, atmospheres) more realistically
2018:
"Nvidia’s stock ends at record high as chip sector extends gains"
"Nvidia Corp. shares closed at a record Monday, leading the chip makers higher, tacking on gains from last week’s rally...Nvidia shares are up nearly 50% for the year.
“As gaming content utilizing ray-tracing capabilities becomes available, we see Turing’s performance potentially more than double that of Pascal. We expect to see games utilizing raytracing in 4Q,”
Then the 2020 reality was that "ray-tracing" was just hype
"Ray tracing was the great hope for Nvidia's current generation of graphics cards, and the main reason given for their high costs. Yet here we are on the dawn of the next-generation, and I'm still waiting for a ray tracing game that I actually give a damn about.... nearly two years after the release of the first RTX-capable card, the insanely expensive Nvidia GeForce RTX 2080 Ti, there still isn't anything that really stands out as a must have ray tracing experience."
If people want to trade Nvidia there's certainly money around it but dont feel like Nvidia AI is Amazon or Google ready to soar for years on AI. The AI template fits the ray-tracing template. Nvidia is good at that while AMD likes to make good stuff without blowing smoke up people cheeks.
The most brilliant guy in computers is American Kim Keller. He got AMD turned around with Ryzen and did Intel before that. He's worked on Teslas. He makes complex things seem simpler an deeper at the same time
What universe are you living in? The numbers don’t lie. Record breaking revenue and profits. A 4 bagger for their stock over the last year. Is Wall St ignorant and you’re the savant? I got rid of a former financial advisor who was a perennial bear for the past 30 years and couldn’t see the forest through the trees. Is NVDA’s price too high? Maybe but the P/L sheet isn’t hype.
Numbers lie all the time - especially these days. They get goosed, revised, manipulated so many ways its odd when people still fall for them so hard.
I remember back in 2007 there were "For Sale" signs on every fifth house in my town. People wanted to cash in on the "boom." I knew the music was going to stop playing.
I'm not a bear or a bull on the markets. People can make money in different ways and in good times or bad. I'm more of a meta-historian and a structuralist. I see a current economy that's rigged, goosed and over-exposed. America makes little anymore (including medicine and PPE) and "financialization" of the economy has favored grifters at the top. People acquire assets with securities backed by assets backed by securities backed by assets ad infinitum and who knows who really owns what
The stock "market" isn't even a market anymore. It got converted to a cant fail boomer retirement fund long ago. An old lady cant get interest on her savings account but low/no interest funny money can inflate markets into a bubble that taxpayer funds have to rescue. Its a wealth transfer operation. Socialism for the protected investors and brutal Darwinian capitalism for the people who have to foot the bill.
Currently the market is goosed with "emergency" funds and shadow bank funds. Derivatives are a nightmare waiting to happen. Nothing is reliable is an election year with lying agencies and pols. Of course that doesn't mean a nimble investor cant cash in on the Nvidia hype. Its just pays to know what it is
"The Problem With Economic Data Is Getting Worse
Data revisions are occasionally so big that they upend our shared understanding of what’s going on
Investors are often wildly overconfident about what’s going to happen. They hope for new technologies that push stock prices to extreme highs or for stories of impending doom that drive them to extreme lows. But even wise investors are prone to buying into narratives about the current state of the economy that turn out to be deeply flawed."
Fake growth numbers paint alternative economic reality
Shadow Bank Loans From US Lenders Surpass $1 Trillion in Fed Data
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Oh and Rutgers own James O'Keefe records IRS hack explaining how they are using "AI" to spy on accounts even though its illegal. This sort of thing is why the AI push is coming up to pitch now. Exec order mandates it get used by all agencies. Of course its "all for citizens protection."
Rivian is soooo tempting at these levels…but the downgrades keep coming and I’m starting to wonder if they can survive a long EV winter. I’d say there is chance in 2 years Rivian’s stock will have tripled …or it files for bankruptcy and/or is acquired at a fire-sale price.
The problem is EV trucks are tough sell. I do think the R1S and the R2 will save them. But it’s the ramp is costly. They need a sugar daddy or a Cathie Woods to pump their stock.
Agree - although imagine how cool Rivian would be with the Apple insignia on the hood…
I think we need a few trading days to let the dust settle. Will it go under $10? That's a realistic possibility. You are correct, in the long run that company will be massive or a complete bust. This is why I love a leap call trade.
From our friends at FS Insights (Tom Lee's shop). Summary of earnings to date. Pretty good:
- Of the 449 companies that have reported so far (90% of the S&P 500):
- Overall, 78% are beating estimates, and those that “beat” are beating by a median of 7%.
- Of the 22% missing, those are missing by a median of -5%.
It was an attempt at a joke. REYN is the parent company of Reynolds Wrap i.e. the mainstay of the tinfoil hat wearing sect, conspiracy seekers....
Well, I guess this particular conversation is done. Its impossible to discuss certain things when one is so far down the rabbit hole of conspiracies and cynicism. Perhaps there is another country or location that can alleviate you of all these threats?
That's why I bought some yesterday. Literally a lotto ticket. Most likely going to lose, but maybe, just maybe it pops, or it gets acquired by someone for a nice boost.
I assume the money I spent on it is sunk