I should. Dealing with the psychology of watching, but not owning, the likes of DHI rip for the last 2 years.
But the housing shortage bull case remains in tact.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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But the housing shortage bull case remains in tact.
I think I will start buying IBT (iShares US Home Construction ETF). It covers the big builders and also HD, Lowes, and other home improvement suppliers.
I do not. I keep close enough tabs that if a stock get's down towards a level, I can get out if I want.
And sometimes when a stock goes down, I might want to add, not sell.
That said, I've watched stocks tank way below levels I should have sold at. So maybe I should.
Jobs revised down by 818K. So more towards the high end of the estimates.
Goldman Sachs estimates 300-500K of that revision are actual jobs, but jobs held by off the books illegals.
Markets wavered for a minute, but then settled back to revision levels.
Goldman Sachs estimates 300-500K of that revision are actual jobs, but jobs held by off the books illegals.
Markets wavered for a minute, but then settled back to revision levels.
1mil was going to be the biggest in 15 years. Not sure where 818 lands.
2019 saw numbers revised down 500K, and that was the highest revision in the previous 6 years.
So definitely at the high end of the range, but if this number is indeed more heavily influenced by off the books illegals in the 300-500 K range, then that tempers that concern.
Original numbers had the jobs added at 2.9mil, subtract 800K that brings it down to 2.1, factor in off the books bringing it in around 2.5 mil jobs added.
The market is not worried about it. And as @T2Kplus20 notes this probably helps push the fed towards the dovish side.
I'm going to go with "doubt it" but most people are on board with 3-4 cuts for the rest of the year, so I think this does make multiple cuts this year more likely.50 bps cut back on the table for Sept?
Though with October an off month, and Nov the election, maybe they do go 2 in sept, and then 1 in Dec?
I didn’t see T2K post this yet.
ULTA?
Buffet just bought it. Historically low P/E at 14x.
EPS growth over 20 years is fantastic. Dipped during covid, surge after, has leveled the last 3-4 qtrs, but expected to grow 10+% this year into next. Has also beaten on EPS every qtr the last 4 years.
EPS growth plus multiple expansion to it's more traditional 20x, and we could see this as a $600 stock in a year or two.
Reports earnings on the 29th. Some concern they could miss due to slowing growth and competition.
Edit: I'll start a small position here. Maybe look to add if it dips on earnings.
Buffet just bought it. Historically low P/E at 14x.
EPS growth over 20 years is fantastic. Dipped during covid, surge after, has leveled the last 3-4 qtrs, but expected to grow 10+% this year into next. Has also beaten on EPS every qtr the last 4 years.
EPS growth plus multiple expansion to it's more traditional 20x, and we could see this as a $600 stock in a year or two.
Reports earnings on the 29th. Some concern they could miss due to slowing growth and competition.
Edit: I'll start a small position here. Maybe look to add if it dips on earnings.
I'm fine with the 25 bps in Sept, but I want to hear from Powell and other members a clear commitment to getting back to neutral (i.e., 25 bps cuts at every meeting for the next year or so).
I believe 3 Fed members went on the record last week saying it's time to start cutting. Bostic, Daly, and someone else.
I don't think a 0% rate is coming nor should it. That was a drastic and probably necessary cut due to the circumstances. The Fed should always have some bullets left in their gun. I think 2 to 3% is reasonable and historically the proper rate.
Yes, the neutral rate is 3.0 to 3.5%. That would be perfectly fine and normal. No need to be restrictive anymore.
Thoughts on CAVA as it enters earnings report and beyond? Seems like an ideal restaurant to populate college and small towns across America.
Fed officials leaning strongly toward September rate cut, minutes show
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials last month were strongly leaning toward an interest rate cut at their September policy meeting and several of them would have even been willing to reduce borrowing costs immediately, according to the minutes of the July 30-31 gathering.
Preview of Powell on Friday?
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials last month were strongly leaning toward an interest rate cut at their September policy meeting and several of them would have even been willing to reduce borrowing costs immediately, according to the minutes of the July 30-31 gathering.
Preview of Powell on Friday?
I almost bought CAVA few weeks ago but went with SG and CMG instead. Also bought BROS recently. I still have CAVA on my pullback list.
If I use them, I prefer a stop limit just like I generally use limit orders for buying instead of market orders.
If something gets executed buying/selling I want a defined entry/exit, especially if I’m not paying attention closely.
That being said if you use a stop limit you run the risk of it not being executed should you get a wild fluctuation, say off earnings or news or just the overall market like the other week. If you’re just looking to make sure you get out to minimize the loss no matter the price drop then stop loss is better. It depends on your goal.
It’s also a good reason to look at charts and know support levels and such. Say it breaks this support level by such and such percent..okay that’s where I’ll put the stop in etc.. Setting it can be tricky though because you could get stopped out when you don’t want to be if you don’t pay attention to “natural gyrations” of a particular stock.
I don’t tend to use them too often though because I operate in a “safer” space so to speak than some names I see people bring up here. I’m more likely to accumulate on further drops than look to get out and minimize a loss.
SNOW with a double beat, ups full year guidance (slightly), approves a $2.5B buyback, but down 8%.
"We expect bears will point to the (implied) [second-half] guidance which insinuates a significant deceleration vs. [first-half] product growth," Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne said in a note to clients. Still, he's upbeat on the stock as he thinks the outlook may prove conservative.
"We expect bears will point to the (implied) [second-half] guidance which insinuates a significant deceleration vs. [first-half] product growth," Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne said in a note to clients. Still, he's upbeat on the stock as he thinks the outlook may prove conservative.
WOLF to 14.44 in after hours trading, after its earnings call. Announced closing of its 150mm substrate production facility in Durham, as it migrates production to the new 200mm substrate facility in Mohawk Valley NY and then, additionally, to the JP facility in Chatham Co NC when it comes online in '25. CEO Lowe said Wolfspeed is negotiating final terms to receive federal funding through the CHIPS Act.
Outstanding quarter, double beat and a guidance raise. I'll be happy to add to my position tomorrow if still down.
Expensive. Especially for growth that looks relatively modest.
Chart looks great though.
Schwab sold out of gold in their robo advisor account as well. It has always been part of the portfolio.
Down 10% now. $121.
I sold it recently, I think somewhere in the $120's. I'm watching it, but man that chart sucks.
I’m probably dumping my SNOW position in the next few days. I’ll take a loss but I wasn’t overly impressed with the quarter and I didn’t like the CEO’s answer to Cramer’s competition question during yesterday’s interview. The enterprise software space is tough to read and my assumption is always that the hyper-scalers eventually win.
Not a stock for me but I have looked at it in the past out of curiosity. Back in April mentioned low 20s might have some support. It held for a few months but then it got taken out. Looks like it even broke the 2008 lows this month. Looks fairly over sold on a longer term chart and volume has been higher in this last downturn over 7-8 months so for those who own it, hopefully that's a wash out and maybe a sort of capitulation. Looks like a lot of damage to repair though...50DMA is also in the low 20s, hopefully in time it can get to that level at least in some time.
They should just sell the business like Jana Partners is/was pushing for. Hopefully a gov’t handout will push the stock up but this one is the biggest loser in my portfolio by far.
That's essentially within the margin of error. And with Powell tomorrow, that's all that matters.
Will watch SNOW and likely buy more today. I originally got in $146 and bought more around $125. I was in the green at the yesterday's close.
WOLF has a unique position as a next-gen chip producer, primarily for the power generation and EV markets. One new production facility in NY is just now online and a second facility in NC to join in '25. Another in Germany is TBD. All that set up consumes $$$, yes. But "Mr. Market" wants profitability now. So this stock hasn't caught support, yet.
Hmm. I got stopped out twice on WOLF. Maybe this would be a good leap call play if the options dates go out long enough, especially with a possible CHIPS act announcement soon.
I sold at $129. It's now $119. I think it get's back into the $120's in the short term.
One of my key vendors use Snowflake for their advanced analytics platform. Amazing product.
Philly fed pres Harker.
"what's important is we commit to bringing rates down"
Not ground breaking, but nice to hear.
Spoke of construction projects that are waiting for the rate cuts.
"what's important is we commit to bringing rates down"
Not ground breaking, but nice to hear.
Spoke of construction projects that are waiting for the rate cuts.