OT: Stock and Investment Thread

[Rutgers Chris]

1:25:13- former Uber CEO discusses autonomous ride sharing.

TL/DR- dark horse opinion is there needs to be a place for ICE vehicles to get here as quickly as the tech is evolving. Acceptance will become normalized faster than some think. Big plays for fleet management- real estate for charging, storage, car cleaning, etc. Parking lots/garages will see less usage due to less cars, they’ll be converted to serve the above and open up more space in urban areas.

 

[Joey Bags]

Sounds like once Canada gives Trump what he wants regarding border security, the tariffs will go bye-bye. Likely the same goes with Mexico.

Possibly, but the Trump Administration has been very vocal about a complete overhaul on how the country generates revenue, with Tariffs playing a leading role and a possible total rescinding of the federal income tax. I find this all somewhat hard to believe, but they are on record with this as a go-forward strategy.

 

[Knight Owl]

Possibly, but the Trump Administration has been very vocal about a complete overhaul on how the country generates revenue, with Tariffs playing a leading role and a possible total rescinding of the federal income tax. I find this all somewhat hard to believe, but they are on record with this as a go-forward strategy.

If they rescind the income tax, treasury bonds will have no bids other than from the Fed but the Fed isn’t allowed to buy them directly from the Treasury.
Perhaps the plan is to just default and then go to war against foreign holders of the bonds if necessary. Crazier things have happened I suppose and crazy things are already happening.

 

[RUDeac]

Market is not looking good after multiple tariff news

 

[mdk02]

Possibly, but the Trump Administration has been very vocal about a complete overhaul on how the country generates revenue, with Tariffs playing a leading role and a possible total rescinding of the federal income tax. I find this all somewhat hard to believe, but they are on record with this as a go-forward strategy.

If they rescind the income tax, treasury bonds will have no bids other than from the Fed but the Fed isn’t allowed to buy them directly from the Treasury.
Perhaps the plan is to just default and then go to war against foreign holders of the bonds if necessary. Crazier things have happened I suppose and crazy things are already happening.

Not sure if they are serious. Don't care. What are the odds of a complete repeal of the income tax gets through. Congress? And is there somewhere I can make abet on this? But I think you already know this.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Market is not looking good after multiple tariff news

Market is currently closed.

 

[RUDeac]

Market is currently closed.

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-us-tech-100-e1

Crypto is down too.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not sure if they are serious. Don't care. What are the odds of a complete repeal of the income tax gets through. Congress? And is there somewhere I can make abet on this? But I think you already know this.

The chance is exactly 0.0%

Tariffs only work with countries with large trade imbalances (like China). Mexico and Canada are fairly even, so those countries can easily offset tariffs with their own ones. They essentially cancel out.

 

[T2Kplus20]

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-us-tech-100-e1

Crypto is down too.

Weekend trading is ultra-thin and metrics are pretty much voodoo. Crypto goes down 5% practically every day.

 

[RU05]

Sounds like once Canada gives Trump what he wants regarding border security, the tariffs will go bye-bye. Likely the same goes with Mexico.

Or at least will scale them down.

 

[Knight Owl]

Not sure if they are serious. Don't care. What are the odds of a complete repeal of the income tax gets through. Congress? And is there somewhere I can make abet on this? But I think you already know this.

He’ll do it by Imperial Executive Order as OK’d by vacationing-with-Harlan Supreme Court justices. It may be part of his plan to become the one true Emperor of the Western Hemisphere.

 

[RU05]

Weekend trading is ultra-thin and metrics are pretty much voodoo. Crypto goes down 5% practically every day.

But as of right now btc is below $100k. Which is a significant level


Might merely be a short term buying opportunity but it is below a significant level.

 

[mdk02]

He’ll do it by Imperial Executive Order as OK’d by vacationing-with-Harlan Supreme Court justices. It may be part of his plan to become the one true Emperor of the Western Hemisphere.

Twaddle.

 

[Knight Owl]

Twaddle.

Perhaps. Perhaps not.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Not sure if they are serious. Don't care. What are the odds of a complete repeal of the income tax gets through. Congress? And is there somewhere I can make abet on this? But I think you already know this.

https://polymarket.com/event/trump-abolishes-the-federal-income-tax-in-2025?tid=1738470752891

 

[T2Kplus20]

https://polymarket.com/event/trump-abolishes-the-federal-income-tax-in-2025?tid=1738470752891

There's a betting market for everything now!

 

[T2Kplus20]

But as of right now btc is below $100k. Which is a significant level

Might merely be a short term buying opportunity but it is below a significant level.

I'll definitely buy more if it dips a few % below $100K. The negative news on tariffs is very temporary - whether they get repealed or not. Those large China tariffs from Trump 1.0 are still around and in the long run meant absolutely nothing to the markets.

 

[ashokan]

Possibly, but the Trump Administration has been very vocal about a complete overhaul on how the country generates revenue, with Tariffs playing a leading role and a possible total rescinding of the federal income tax. I find this all somewhat hard to believe, but they are on record with this as a go-forward strategy.

The reported new IRS agents (rejected in the Build Back Better but finessed into the "Inflation Reduction Act" ) have been frozen. An EO froze federal hiring for 90 days with exception for IRS. OMB and others will determine any need at a later date. Fair to say IRS is headed for "remodeling" of some magnitude. Non profits/NGOs on the schedule too. Gutting/investigating of FBI began Friday. Elon froze high priority gov computers. New team "going for the jugular" to borrow a fav phrase of Soros.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/hiring-freeze/

Tariffs aren't just about money but moving manufacturing around (sticks and carrots)

 

[rutgersdave]

Not sure if they are serious. Don't care. What are the odds of a complete repeal of the income tax gets through. Congress? And is there somewhere I can make abet on this? But I think you already know this.

Getting the tax cut of 2017 extension passed by Congress will be difficult with a cost of 4.5 trillion. Trump expects the tariffs revenue and the cuts in government expenses to offset the 4.5 trillion but I don’t see it. The Republican Freedom Caucus member don’t want an increase in the deficit.

Maybe Trump is talking about all these tariffs and tariffs on the rest of the world to project huge tariff revenues to pass the tax cuts but after it’s passes, he plans on cutting the tariffs to a manageable amount.

 

[rutgersal_rivals139582]

This trade war is going to screw all of us for no good reason.

 

[RUBlackout]

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-us-tech-100-e1

Crypto is down too.

Yes crypto is very volatile but in this case they are trading off the news of the tariffs and Monday will be a bad day in market as this is a leading indicator

 

[RUBlackout]

This trade war is going to screw all of us for no good reason.

Reverse Cramer here

 

[mdk02]

Getting the tax cut of 2017 extension passed by Congress will be difficult with a cost of 4.5 trillion. Trump expects the tariffs revenue and the cuts in government expenses to offset the 4.5 trillion but I don’t see it. The Republican Freedom Caucus member don’t want an increase in the deficit.

Maybe Trump is talking about all these tariffs and tariffs on the rest of the world to project huge tariff revenues to pass the tax cuts but after it’s passes, he plans on cutting the tariffs to a manageable amount.

A lot of moving parts and interested parties. Can't predict the complete results. But I have total confidence that there will still be an income tax on 1/1/26.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Getting the tax cut of 2017 extension passed by Congress will be difficult with a cost of 4.5 trillion. Trump expects the tariffs revenue and the cuts in government expenses to offset the 4.5 trillion but I don’t see it. The Republican Freedom Caucus member don’t want an increase in the deficit.

Maybe Trump is talking about all these tariffs and tariffs on the rest of the world to project huge tariff revenues to pass the tax cuts but after it’s passes, he plans on cutting the tariffs to a manageable amount.

The 2017 tax cuts will be extended. No doubt. The question is will there be new and additional tax cuts? That’s what Trump and his team are trying to figure out.

 

[RU206]

The 2017 tax cuts will be extended. No doubt. The question is will there be new and additional tax cuts? That’s what Trump and his team are trying to figure out.

Everything I read says 2017 cuts will be extended and the new cuts will be for the top 20% of earners. I haven’t read anything that says the new cuts will be for the bottom 80%. But there is a lot of info out there and who knows what’s real.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Everything I read says 2017 cuts will be extended and the new cuts will be for the top 20% of earners. I haven’t read anything that says the new cuts will be for the bottom 80%. But there is a lot of info out there and who knows what’s real.

New ideas may include SALT cap increase which will help many of us in NJ. No tax on tips. No tax on SS. Business tax cut to 15% for products made in the US. I’ve heard more ideas but I think these are the big ones.

Who knows what will happen.

 

[rutgersdave]

New ideas may include SALT cap increase which will help many of us in NJ. No tax on tips. No tax on SS. Business tax cut to 15% for products made in the US. I’ve heard more ideas but I think these are the big ones.

Who knows what will happen.

How can he do all these tax cuts without increasing the deficit? Can we cause the deficit to shrink by increasing the inflation substantially? The dollar value shrinks so the million dollar become worth a hundred thousand dollars. So the upper middle class moves into the lower middle class?

 

[T2Kplus20]

How can he do all these tax cuts without increasing the deficit? Can we cause the deficit to shrink by increasing the inflation substantially? The dollar value shrinks so the million dollar become worth a hundred thousand dollars. So the upper middle class moves into the lower middle class?

Spending cuts from DOGE to offset.

 

[RU206]

How can he do all these tax cuts without increasing the deficit? Can we cause the deficit to shrink by increasing the inflation substantially? The dollar value shrinks so the million dollar become worth a hundred thousand dollars. So the upper middle class moves into the lower middle class?

I think he wants tariffs to cover the tax cuts

 

[rutgersdave]

Spending cuts from DOGE to offset.

Not enough spending cuts possible unless social security and Medicare are cut.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-economy-begins-republican-congress-120112470.html

The Republican Study Committee (RSC), which consists of more than 170 House GOP lawmakers, proposed a budget in early 2024 that suggested $1.5 trillion in cuts to Social Security over the next 10 years, and with a Republican-controlled Congress, new policies could be implemented.

Now you’re talking.

 

[RU206]

Spending cuts from DOGE to offset.

This is going to be tricky depending on what’s cut. Assume jobs and funding for specific programs are cut. The direct impact will be for government working losing jobs. Indirect can be significant.
For example - I read an article that Kentucky public school get a lot of federal funding. More than NJ and many other states. Fed funding cuts will mean either Kentucky will raise taxes to cover difference or if not, Kentucky teachers and school programs will needed to be cut. There are examples like this all over the country. We won’t know until we see the specific cuts.

 

[Knight Owl]

I think he wants tariffs to cover the tax cuts

It doesn’t come close, but that’s the “sell.”

 

[mdk02]

The dollar value shrinks so the million dollar become worth a hundred thousand dollars. So the upper middle class moves into the lower middle class?

Please. That has as much of a chance of happening as all the proposed cuts going through.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I think he wants tariffs to cover the tax cuts

True, but I don't think the math works out. Besides, if we tariff Canada by 25% and they just do the same, the revenue going back and forth essentially washes out. Right? Export and imports with Canada are pretty equal. Tariffs to China makes more sense since the trade imbalance is so large.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Not enough spending cuts possible unless social security and Medicare are cut.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-economy-begins-republican-congress-120112470.html

The Republican Study Committee (RSC), which consists of more than 170 House GOP lawmakers, proposed a budget in early 2024 that suggested $1.5 trillion in cuts to Social Security over the next 10 years, and with a Republican-controlled Congress, new policies could be implemented.

Now you’re talking.

I don't think the goal is to offset the new/extended tax cuts. The deficit just needs to go up slower as compared to GDP and everything will be fine.

Speaking of new tax cuts, making SS benefits tax free makes a lot of sense. Why would you tax a benefit that already comes from taxes? I don't support double taxation like this.

 

[Knight Owl]

I don't think the goal is to offset the new/extended tax cuts. The deficit just needs to go up slower as compared to GDP and everything will be fine.

Speaking of new tax cuts, making SS benefits tax free makes a lot of sense. Why would you tax a benefit that already comes from taxes? I don't support double taxation like this.

Except you’re ignoring the amount paid by employers and the interest earned over time. Social Security fund runs short of money much sooner if SS isn’t taxed at all. Terrible idea. The next productive thing ‘47’ does will be his first.

 

[RU206]

Do Canadians have enough buying power to impact the US economy? Hypothetically, if Canadians agreed, maybe via social media platforms, to boycott all US products for 3-6 months could they have a significant impact on the US. i.e. cancel netfix, apple, Amazon, US booze and other US products.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Do Canadians have enough buying power to impact the US economy? Hypothetically, if Canadians agreed, maybe via social media platforms, to boycott all US products for 3-6 months could they have a significant impact on the US. i.e. cancel netfix, apple, Amazon, US booze and other US products.

No they don't. Canada is a patch on the fanny of our GDP.

 

[mdk02]

I don't think the goal is to offset the new/extended tax cuts. The deficit just needs to go up slower as compared to GDP and everything will be fine.

Speaking of new tax cuts, making SS benefits tax free makes a lot of sense. Why would you tax a benefit that already comes from taxes? I don't support double taxation like this.

'

Not double taxation on 100%. The employers half of the FICA contribution is deducted by the employer and not taxed to the employee. The employee's half was taxed. So partial taxation is justified.

 

[RU05]

True, but I don't think the math works out. Besides, if we tariff Canada by 25% and they just do the same, the revenue going back and forth essentially washes out. Right? Export and imports with Canada are pretty equal. Tariffs to China makes more sense since the trade imbalance is so large.

In which case the tariff's on Canada are essentially a tax on US businesses that sell stuff to Canada.

This was his campaign rhetoric, but I'm a little surprised this went through at 25%, figured he'd scale it back at implementation. But I still think that number will come down, if not completely revoked, once he gets some level of concession from these countries in terms of immigration/drug trafficking controls.