There's also the arguement for diversification. It doesn't have to be more than 5% of a portfolio. One thing I'd look at is the rate of foreign taxes on those dividends. Is might be higher than the tax rate on US holdings.
OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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There's also the arguement for diversification. It doesn't have to be more than 5% of a portfolio. One thing I'd look at is the rate of foreign taxes on those dividends. Is might be higher than the tax rate on US holdings.
I have been at 32% equities for a while (waiting for the T2K response
, but I’m retired, the market is overvalued, and I’m somewhat in preservation mode) and have purchased several CDs that will be maturing between 3 and 24 months. NVDA and AAPL have essentially been flat for more than 6 months, while TSLA is showing weakness after a crazy run and Meta could be next. MSFT has done nothing and GOOG is where it was in July. So Mag 7 stocks, which carried the market for 18-24 months, are showing some cracks.
1. Finally got some skin in the game with WOLF. Jan 2026 calls.
2. Be careful with ex-US. This isn’t a cycle or regression to the mean. There are political, social, and economic reasons why most international markets are sucking. Europe is a museum. Japan is an old age home. China is a prison. Not much left to play with. India is probably best, but after a big run, it’s taking a breather.
32% = BearI have been at 32% equities for a while (waiting for the T2K response
Even in retirement! You should at least have 50% or so sitting in a low vol ETF like VTI or VIG. Try the 3 bucket retirement strategy. Only need cash/fixed to cover the next 3-5 years of expenses.
If the Mag don’t move upward, the market will fall. Meta I was hoping will fall after earning but I had to buy a few shares recently. I expect the market to fall between Feb-Mar and when earning season gets near, the market goes up and I’ll sell again when they get close to highs. Then I will listen to Tom Lee and expect the big fall after earnings.I have been at 32% equities for a while (waiting for the T2K response
With this environment, maybe slightly conservative but give him money to buy at market drops. I go up to 80% and down to 40% equities depending on if the market is up or down. I like to take profits when the stocks are at their high normally when earnings are to be announced and buy in between earning season when the stock falls. I tend to have the same strategy as RU IN IM which is take advantage of the situation.32% = Bear
Even in retirement! You should at least have 50% or so sitting in a low vol ETF like VTI or VIG. Try the 3 bucket retirement strategy. Only need cash/fixed to cover the next 3-5 years of expenses.
Oh, I’m been giving away some of my assets to relatives already. I figure they will remember me as the generous relative.
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FYI - based on the math (and numerous analyses), even if you perfectly time the market and buy at every bottom, the person DCA'ing still gets better returns and makes more money. Why? Because 98% of the time a new ATH is followed but another ATH.
Jittery investors miss out on so much. Which is fine if it helps them sleep better at night. The market is about personal preference and psychology.
Another thing I never understood = 5% diversification in international is a total nothing-burger. Even if the portfolio is $1M what is $50K of international exposure going to do for you? It’s like when people talk about making BTC 1%-2% of their portfolio I don’t see the point. IMO, if someone truly wants to diversify with international exposure it should start at 10%-20%.
Way back when, I got ahead of everybody by trading my company stock WX for several years. I was watching my company Westinghouse stocks go up and down about 1 dollar up and 1 dollar down. I just sold when the stock went up 1 dollar and brought it when it back when it went down 1 dollar. I noticed the 401k balance had grown significantly and then realized $1/$20 equals a 5% return. I just had to do it 8 times to get a 40% return annually. I did this for several years but the company tried to stop it by changing the time they brought the stocks. I had 200% return in 4 years that normally takes maybe 18 years to achieve. I was noticed by my brother since his company stock increased 5 times over 10 years and I was seeing no gain just holding my company stock. That’s how I got ahead of the game. I didn’t have such a high paying job like you.
No more DCA since I have been retired for 16 years and no more income coming in other than social security and a small pension. I have to sell to reallocate to a better situation or stock. Your advise is good for the average to below average investor.
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I have 3-4% international just by random holdings in my biggest funds/etfs. Agreed, going to 5% is almost nothing. As for BTC, 1-2% is a general guideline for those new to crypto. BTC's vol is beyond what traditional investors are used to, so I think it is a good starting point. I'm around the 4-5% with crypto with the large majority being BTC (via the coin directly and FBTC in two of our rollover IRAs).
Interesting. I don't think you can do stuff like that in 401k's anymore. They are highly restricted on trading and investment options. In biotech, we get a ton of equity, but via options and RSUs. Even ESPPs (stock purchase plans) are pretty restricted.
We've gotten ahead by brute force savings (living below our means and investing excess money) and buying in bear markets. We did this in 2008/2009 without really understanding what we were doing in real time, but fingering out how powerful it was afterwards. Plowed in as much excess money as possible in 2018, 2020, and 2022. 2022 was the first time I moved some investments over to leveraged ETFs (broad market indexes) to maximize the post-bear rally. Worked amazingly well.
Never thought we would be where we are today with our portfolio.
No I see the government or companies decided that employees can only buy a % in company stocks since they are afraid of Enron situation. I broke all the basis rules in investing, don’t buy your company stocks, don’t put all your assets into one stock, and buy and hold don’t trade. My brother and many in his company BDX made millions by putting their 401k all in their company stock, he also had his bonuses and stock options. I’m sure plenty of Merck, Exxon, JNJ, And Pfizer employees did the same.
I have never had company stock available in a 401k. All of my stock programs (including my current) just dumped into a separate Fidelity account. Finished up my MBA and started my career post-Enron. Also, my first company (worked for over 10 years) was a Japanese pharma whose stock was only on the Nikkei. That stock program was awesome. It was essentially just a cash/2nd bonus tied to the value of the shares. Very simple.
Google discussion at 1:09. TLDR- they have the best AI models out there. Now they just need to find ways to imbed them into their products and monetize it. Who would you trust more to do such a thing than Google (see- YouTube)? They’ve also been the most frugal and deliberate in terms of spending capex on AI infrastructure, so their spend should be a sign that hey have a roadmap to monetize and protect search market share
Most of the individual stocks I hold and trade are in my 401k. Our 401k allows us to allocate funds (transfer) to a PCRA (personal choice retirement account) where the funds can be traded like any other brokerage account; it is also the account where I purchase bank CDs.
I also agree with you that buy hold and add is generally the way to go, but there have been times where people lost a HUGE chunk of their retirement funds (2000-2001 and 2008-2009) after retiring….. and that will not happen to me.
And similar to rutgersdave, I followed a stock (SWN - it recently merged and is now part of EXE). It’s a NatGas company, not a growth company. It fluctuated up and down for three years before the merger. I traded the stock (in my 401k) over a 100 times, making between 5% and 20% per trade; most trades lasted a couple days, some weeks, and a couple times, months. My return far exceeded a buy and hold strategy; like 8x my money verses double. I realize this is the exception, but not every company just continues to go up. Verizon is another one; I do hold most of what I own to get the dividend, but I trade on the edges as it keeps fluctuating between $38 and $42. Much smaller % changes than SWN, but 5% moves have supplemented my overall return.
Is this a strategy I recommend? No! But it is entertainment for me and I’m not betting the bank.
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Heard in the All In pod “Chamath and Friends” that search will basically become chat in an AI world and I refuse to believe MSFT will be so inept that they will continue to be an also-ran in the “money printing from ads and preference” search/chat area in the future. I may be wrong about that but recent price action has consisted of run ups in price before quarterly results and then sell offs once another meh quarter becomes known… but with higher lows with each “correction.” $500/share or bust!
Listened to it yesterday. He's pretty "bearish" over the net 5 years expecting only 5% annualized return. Of course as Brown points out that is more likely to come in the form of up 20%, down 20%, up 15% or something like that.
And in regards to evaluations, he does note that growth stocks are not overly expensive relatively to themselves. 31x vs 29x historical. And growth is a much larger weight in the indexes then it was years ago. They also talk about how margins are much much better then 30-40+ years ago so we should expect higher valuations.
Yes, Giroux tends to be on the bearish/cautious side quick which is a good fit since Steve Wymer (FDGRX) is on the other end. They are kind of like my investment bookends. I watch their holdings via Morningstar very closely and track what they are doing. Giroux is a GARP guy and has made a lot of great moves over the years.
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He did note a relatively recent situation where he was more bullish then the market. Though I forget the details.
GARP to me is just sound, if unexciting, investing. Stay out of value traps and hype run ups alike.
Years ago, in the USA Today newspaper, when people actually read the hard copy, I read an article about a Ford worker doing the same strategy that I was doing buying and selling the Ford stock when it fluctuated and accumulated over couple hundred thousands. The article took about a half a page. This was about5 years after I was doing the trades.
As I said, there many ways to make money. I use to say the streets in the US are paved in gold but not everyone can see it. Let the money make the money. I could tell you buy low and sell high but didn’t know you use the same strategy. T2K is still developing his strategy.
I’ve used your strategy pretty frequently. It used to be called “channeling”, not sure it is still called that. It’s a pretty easy strategy. I did it for a while with MARA, more recently with WOLF, WULF and currently with NUKK
Channeling, trading range whatever you want to call it (although channels don’t have to be sideways) are good things to look at for trading. I always thought of it as “recycling” money lol.
That’s part of why I like charts, it’s easier to spot potential patterns like that.
Elon and crew looking to buy controlling stake of OpenAI:
Shout out to VRTX (my one established pharma/biotech in my custom stock basket). They reported today and slightly down. However, I think VRTX is poised to go boom and become one of the big boys of the industry. They have a $10B annual monopoly with their CF franchise which is patent protected until 2037. And now they are on the cusp of diversifying well behind CF to many other disease states. Love VRTX's pipeline. Check out their earnings presentation.
I believe he’s trying to force Sam’s hand and/or ruin the deal he has in place to cash in. Such a pissing match at this point
How much % cash do you keep on the sideline to load up on those dips? If I’m fully allocated, my portfolio is riding that dip down as well.
Analysis from "Opening Bell Daily"
Clashing ambitions |
When two billionaires with unlimited resources battle over world-changing technology, sudden escalations shouldn’t be surprising. |
A group of investors led by Elon Musk made an unsolicited $97.4 billion bid for the non-profit that controls OpenAI, The Wall Street Journal reported, complicating Sam Altman’s efforts to turn the ChatGPT-creator into a for-profit company. |
“It’s time for OpenAI to return to the open-source, safety-focused force for good it once was,” Musk said in a statement through his lawyer. |
The Tesla chief argues that Altman will not only shortchange the non-profit parent, but consolidate unchecked AI dominance. |
Altman dismissed the news on X, the platform Musk owns: “No thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.” |
Internally, Altman told OpenAI staff that Musk’s offer wasn’t aligned with OpenAI’s mission, The Information reported late Monday. |
Early Tuesday in Paris he told Axios that “OpenAI is not for sale.” |
What’s OpenAI really worth? |
Last month, Musk’s team requested OpenAI accept bidding for the non-profit, citing concerns that Altman & Co. would undervalue it. |
OpenAI has pegged its non-profit controller’s value at roughly $40 billion. But rejecting Musk’s far higher offer — the only other one on the table — suggests the initial “fair value” was not so fair. |
The jargon and public barbs shroud a very strange situation indeed. |
For Altman to turn OpenAI into a for-profit company, he has to buy it from the non-profit entity that currently owns it. But Altman sits on the board of said non-profit. |
Meaning he effectively wants to buy something from himself. |
…while naming his own price. |
The fact Altman shirked Musk’s jumbo offer — not to mention Musk’s claim to match any higher offer — suggests a few things: |
|
Power struggles |
Musk and Altman co-founded OpenAI in 2015, structuring it under a non-profit to ensure it answered to humanity, rather than shareholders. |
Musk left in 2019, and Altman launched a for-profit subsidiary that has allowed OpenAI to raise billions. He’s now trying to spin that out as a stand-alone entity while giving the non-profit an ownership stake. |
Musk says this move thwarts that original ambition and hands Altman commercial dominance and big money. |
The timeline leading up to this is worth revisiting: |
|
The intrigue will surely deepen. |
Still, win or lose Musk’s offer is forcing a necessary debate on who should control the most consequential technology of our generation. |
That's a tricky question to answer. We have savings put aside for life needs, but for investments we normally don't sit on cash for too long. We are blessed with plenty of excess income so we always have "new" money coming in. Our biggest cash source is my company's equity grants. We get large vests every month or two which dump into my personal/fun account. Right now, this account has a lot of cash, about 30%. The Fidelity money market rate is better than Capital One online, so we are in no hurry to move it. We DCA into our main E-Trade brokerage account and I skim some off the top for my personal holdings.
So, at the end of 2024, we had very little cash in investment accounts, but after Jan's equity vest, we have quite a bit. Most of this will go into E-Trade pretty soon since our March vests are the largest of the year.
They came up short on earnings and cut forecasts for 2025. They did raise revenue in 2026 so the market reacted. I would’ve thought they’d be down after hours.
Supermicro also lowered its revenue guidance for fiscal 2025 to a range of $23.5 billion to $25 billion from its previous outlook for $26 billion to $30 billion. Analysts already were looking for $24.1 billion in fiscal 2025 sales.
However, in a press release, Chief Executive Charles Liang predicted fiscal 2026 revenue of $40 billion. Analysts were modeling $29.2 billion.
Tesla auto sales are going to fall off a cliff. Elon needs to pivot to humanoids so he can sell them by the thousands to DOGE and have them replace Federal Gov’t workers.
It really wouldn’t shock me if this is part of Elon’s grand plan LOL. DOGE-Bots will cost taxpayers way less than Fed Gov workers!